1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 37250 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32625 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 12.42%..

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The yellow phosphorus market was light in the first ten days of this month, with poor market demand and limited turnover of new orders. The yellow phosphorus manufacturer’s inventory increased, the market price fell sharply, and the manufacturer basically did not make external quotation. The yellow phosphorus enterprise negotiated according to the price situation, and negotiated the price one by one. From the middle of the month, the price continued to drop to a low of 27500 yuan/ton, and the market price dropped by 10000 yuan compared with 37250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At this time, traders bought at the bottom, the downstream actively replenished goods, and trading increased. The yellow phosphorus market emerged from nowhere. The market price rebounded and rose, and then stabilized. The market started to be light at the end of the day, and the downstream was cautious in receiving orders and purchasing at a lower price. The manufacturer’s price decreased slightly, stimulating downstream and traders to purchase, the market improved and the pressure on shipment was relieved. Near the end of the month, the manufacturer’s intention of low price shipment was low, and the market price rose again. As of November 28, the manufacturer’s quotation was 32000-33000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. On November 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1054 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2 yuan/ton, or 0.16%. At present, the phosphate fertilizer market at the downstream terminal of phosphate rock has warmed up compared with the previous period, which will provide a certain psychological support for phosphate rock from the bottom to the bottom. In addition, the supply side will continue to support. The phosphate rock datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of decline and one round of increase in November. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2400 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a monthly drop of 7.69%. Since November, the steel price has always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills have fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate is at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. The lack of demand to support coke prices has dropped for three consecutive rounds, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 yuan/ton. As the coke market has dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal is higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and the profits have been damaged. The coking enterprises have launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 yuan/ton. In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain is in a seasonal off-season as a whole. The business community expects the coke market to be bullish in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.

On the demand side, phosphoric acid prices fell in November. On November 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 9420 yuan/ton, and on November 28, the average price was 8612.5 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 8.57%. The overall market price fell mainly. At present, downstream manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, fearing that once they buy, they will continue to decline, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the recovery of yellow phosphorus price at the end of the month, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will be stable and good in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The market demand is light, the price of yellow phosphorus once fell to near the cost price, and the downstream and traders bought at the bottom, so the yellow phosphorus market improved and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus rebounded again, considering the cost of next month. It is reported that the electricity price may be raised again next month, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price when the cost increases. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be stable in the short term, supplemented by a small increase. In addition, the transportation in some regions is not smooth at present, and there is uncertainty about the market, so we should pay attention to the future market.