According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 16 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 0.30% from 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 16, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day holiday, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily average output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, and the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, Crude oil prices fell for three days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 12, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore fell by 2.698 million barrels to a four week low of 20.201 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory rose 309000 barrels to a three week high of 8.139 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased 375000 barrels to a seven week high of 16.577 million barrels.

Future market forecast: the international crude oil market has declined in the near future, the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, and the ship fuel cost is under overall pressure. After the festival, the downstream of the ship fuel market is stocked, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.