Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2394.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. On September 4, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from 152.33 points (May 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.77% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea rose slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased slightly, from 5758.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5974.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.75%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.23%; The price of anthracite increased slightly. As of September 1, the price of anthracite increased by 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly, from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.30%.

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is a small amount of stock, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The start-up rate of enterprises in the rubber sheet factory is low, and the purchase is mainly just needed; The compound fertilizer plant followed up on bargain hunting and improved its operation. The price of melamine dropped slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply, the power limitation in Sichuan has ended, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Internationally: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on September 9. The quotation is valid until September 19, and the shipping date is October 21. The intended purchase volume is about 1 million tons. The international urea price has made steady progress.

Urea price or small increase

In the first ten days of September, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. Urea analysts of business club believe that the prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas in the upstream of urea have increased slightly, and the cost of urea has increased. Downstream agricultural demand is general, and industry just needs to increase. The daily output of urea rebounded, spurred by the printing of labels. The recent urea or narrow range shock rise is the main one.