1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8650 yuan / ton on June 12, up 2.11% from 8471.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.21% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the PVC market continued to rise. The futures rose to above 8800, driving the spot market prices to rise synchronously. Prices in many places in China rose for several days. However, the atmosphere of high price transaction was general. The downstream product industry started poorly, the real estate sector was still weak. At the same time, the export sector weakened, and the demand side recovered less than expected. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was lowered, and the cost side support fell, which was bad for many parties, PVC prices stopped rising and turned to falling in the middle and late weeks of the week, and the market became weak. By the end of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4050 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8400-8850 yuan / ton. At present, the external price is quoted at USD 1190 / ton in CFR China, USD 1285 / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, and USD 1380 / ton in CFR India.

It can be seen from the weekly increase and decrease from March 21, 2022 to June 12, 2022 that domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle. The maximum increase was in the week of March 28 and the maximum decrease was in the week of May 23. The overall fluctuation in the near future is not large.

For international crude oil, the oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. On June 10, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Ethylene, as of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1026-1036 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at USD 1677-1687 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at USD 1423-1431 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the 9th, the price was 662-680 yuan / ton. This week, the overall trend of ethylene in the external market was rising first and then falling. It was mainly dominated by European and American ethylene. The actual transaction was poor and the price fluctuated and fell.

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide increased. However, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid June.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current demand has recovered, but it is less than expected. After the PVC price rises, the market trading is poor. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate and decline in the short term.