Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic ABS market fell in May, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of May 31, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13350 yuan / ton, up or down -5.99% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose in May. The monthly low was 9733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest was 10262.50 yuan / ton on May 22, an increase of 5.44%. At present, the output of domestic styrene factories is at a relatively low level, which is lower than that of the same period last year. The tradable inventory at the port is also not large. The overall inventory of styrene is relatively ideal, and the price fluctuates higher. The international crude oil price is expected to rise, but the downstream demand is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. It is recommended to pay close attention to the cost side.

At the beginning of May, the price of acrylonitrile was strong, the overhaul of some enterprises was completed, the number of domestic resumption and start-up enterprises gradually increased, and the supply side gradually increased, causing the price focus of acrylonitrile to drop in the middle and late ten days. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In addition, the impact of health events on transportation is still ongoing. The downstream demand performance is average. The ex factory spot price is subject to multiple pressures, or will continue to fall.

At the beginning of May, the butadiene market experienced a period of downturn and consolidation. As major domestic manufacturers raised their ex factory prices and domestic sources of goods actively exported, the export prices were strong, which significantly boosted the domestic spot prices. Near the end of the month, with some units shut down for maintenance, the inventory continued to decline, the profit of synthetic rubber was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the butadiene market may continue to rise.

In May, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side rose and fell, and the overall support was acceptable. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is at a high level, which has increased this month compared with last month. In the middle and late days of the year, due to inventory and capital pressure, individual polymerization plants have reduced their burden independently, but the effect of reducing pressure on the supply side is not obvious. The manufacturer’s mentality has weakened and the factory price has been lowered. China’s health incidents still have a great impact on some parts of East China. The logistics and production are affected, which depresses a certain demand. The goods are not transported smoothly in the yard, and the offer falls. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained unchanged, causing crude oil to rise in shock. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market divergence is large. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the spot market of ABS fell in May, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was acceptable, which supported the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. This month, the load of downstream household appliances and other industries fell, adding to the impact of transportation obstruction. The operators have poor confidence in the future market. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to be weak in the short term.