According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend was positive in early March, and the spot prices of various brands increased to a certain extent last week. As of March 7, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9180 yuan / ton, up or down by + 7.87% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the price of propylene in Shandong market increased significantly twice last week, and the average price exceeded 9000 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is general. Under the expectation of price rise, the purchase intention of the downstream is enhanced, but at the same time, some demand users are in wait-and-see mood. It is estimated that the propylene short-term market may be dominated by strong operation under the support of cost.

The prices of raw propylene and upstream crude oil rose sharply. Due to the further deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have been upgraded, the market’s expectation of future energy supply interruption has been further strengthened, and the petrochemical industry chain has continued to rise strongly. Although the dynamic coal is weak, the cost side of PP is generally stronger. In terms of supply, the current PP supply continues the pattern of last month, and the spot supply in the market is abundant. The operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and enterprises gradually reduce the load due to high inventory and reduced profits. In terms of social demand, there is also limited inventory improvement in the midstream. Although the resumption of work of downstream enterprises has improved after the Lantern Festival, the demand on the site is still weak. Generally, there are few large order preparation operations, the buyer’s mentality is empty, and the purchase tends to just need to maintain production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 7, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 8.27% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 2.31. Last week, the start-up of the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials increased slowly, and the overall load was about 50%. In terms of demand, the feedback is slow and the growth is slow, and the terminal enterprises take goods in favor of just need to maintain production. In the early stage, the stock has accumulated continuously. At present, the proportion of fiber material production in polypropylene is under pressure, and the price of fiber material may continue to rise under the pressure of cost side.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose last week. As of March 7, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10016.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.44% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. At present, health events in various countries are still not optimistic. Local diagnosis occurs sporadically in some parts of China, which does not significantly promote the spot market of melt blown cloth. The supply of meltblown materials in the site is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. At present, the cost side is favorable to the spot price. It is expected that the melt blown material may run stronger in the short term, but the melt blown PP may cause the decline of enterprise profits under the cost pressure.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market increased greatly in early March, the cost side dynamic coal leveled, propylene and crude oil rose sharply, the tension in Eastern Europe increased, the market worried about the instability of the supply chain, and the cost side strongly supported the spot price of PP. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is general, and the improvement of demand is limited. In the early stage, the stock accumulation of PP enterprises and merchants has eased slightly. It is expected that the PP market may continue to rise under supply pressure in the short term.