According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. Recently, the rare earth market has reached a ten-year high. Recently, the price of domestic praseodymium neodymium series has remained high, and the price of terbium Series in heavy rare earth market has risen. On February 24, the rare earth index was 1007 points, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 271.59% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market price has continued to be high, and the price rise of praseodymium neodymium series, the mainstream of rare earth market, is dominated. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have reached a ten-year high. As of the 24th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.23 million yuan / ton; The price of neodymium is 1.5 million yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 1.09 million yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 1.105 million yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 1362500 yuan / ton; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.39 million yuan / ton, and the trend of domestic rare earth market remains high.

The domestic rare earth market price hit a ten-year high, mainly due to the widening gap between supply and demand, the continuous resumption of metal factories and the continuous increase of on-site demand. However, the separation enterprise is still in parking, so the contradiction between supply and demand continues to expand, the price trend in the yard continues to rise, coupled with strong downstream demand and insufficient supply, which is good for the domestic rare earth market. Due to the shortage of raw materials, increased demand, and the aggravation of the supply shortage of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large upstream groups, the market is bullish. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express train”. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earths is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxides continues to rise. Rare earth metal factories are more cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earths in the field continues to rise.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is in the peak season of traditional demand. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies in the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shipment willingness of cargo holders is low, the reluctance to sell and wait-and-see mood is strong, and the on-site price continues to rise. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.7% and 9.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. The automobile production and sales showed a steady and small growth. Driven by the dual drive of market and policy, the demand market for vehicle specification semiconductors broke out in an all-round way, Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is relatively high, and the domestic light rare earth market price continues to rise. Driven by the demand for Nd-Fe-B, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market rose.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium is still rising. As of the 24th, the price of dysprosium oxide is 3.145 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 3.13 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium is 3.985 million yuan / ton, and the price of domestic terbium is rising. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 15.05 million yuan / ton, and the price of gold terbium is 19.2 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is rising, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market is acceptable, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price higher. Recently, some separation enterprises in the areas where medium and heavy rare earth mines are used such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi have stopped, and the tight supply has made the market price of heavy rare earth higher. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, which further aggravates the supply disturbance, The global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement has been positive, the stock mood is still there, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the on-site has maintained a high trend.

In addition, with the support of national policies, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 meet the expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In addition, the export volume of rare earth rose sharply in 2021, with a cumulative export of 107900 tons of rare earth throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 38%. The rise of foreign demand led to the rise of the domestic rare earth market. On the whole, the demand for rare earth products increased, and the price trend of the domestic rare earth market continued to rise.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. The recent on-site transaction market is good, and the supply enterprises will continue to restart in the later stage. Chen Ling, a business social analyst, predicts that the price increase of rare earth market in the later stage is limited.