According to the data monitored by the business society, the market trend of PP first rose and then fell in early February, and the spot prices of various brands rose as a whole. As of February 11, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8550 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.54% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the domestic propylene market ushered in a wave of rise after the festival, which was mainly affected by two factors. First, crude oil prices rose strongly during the Spring Festival, forming obvious support on the cost side; Second, the supply and demand side of propylene has not been fully restored, some propylene plants have not returned to work, and the transportation is not smooth due to festivals and weather, resulting in tight supply in the region and further contributing to the rise of propylene. In terms of cost and supply and demand, there is still some room for propylene to rise in the short-term market.

The price of upstream propylene has risen, the price of dynamic coal has been reduced by a narrow margin recently, the international crude oil is generally stronger, and the cost support of PP is acceptable. In terms of supply, the supply of PP is still abundant after the festival, and the operating rate of the industry is stable. Under the high load of the industry, the social inventory pressure increases, and the storage position of two barrels of oil depot increases. In terms of demand, terminal enterprises are gradually returning to work after the festival, the demand for goods preparation has not been fully launched, and there is no follow-up of large-scale purchase, which has a certain drag on the spot price. Merchants’ confidence in offering is poor, and the operation of giving away interest orders increases near the weekend.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of February 11, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP also rose. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.39% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 0.00% year-on-year. After the festival, the demand for PP fiber materials also takes time. The consumption of end products is still stable. The main downstream non-woven enterprises gradually resume work, and the profit situation fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that it will take some time for the market participants of fiber materials to return after the festival.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose after the festival. As of January 11, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.81% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the health events in various countries are still not optimistic. The number of local diagnoses in some regions of China has increased, which has a pull on the spot market of melt blown cloth. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the site is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. The rise in spot prices after the festival mostly comes from the cost side.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that: in early February, the domestic polypropylene market fell after rising, the dynamic coal fell in a narrow range, propylene rose in general, the trend of crude oil was strong and volatile, the cost side was generally positive, and the upstream support for PP was OK. The resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, the demand is poor, and the rise of PP spot is blocked. It is expected that the PP market may be dominated by weak operation in the short term.