Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, in early December, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of December 13, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15700 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.79% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of domestic styrene was slightly explored last week. Crude oil consolidation, pure benzene temporary stable consolidation, the cost side gives styrene bottom support, which can not provide rising power. In Zhenhai area, the industry affected by the epidemic and its upstream and downstream, the overall impact is empty. In addition, it is expected that new units will be put into operation. On the whole, the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week.

The price of acrylonitrile rose last week, and the upstream raw material market was consolidated after falling. The increase of on-site supply was not as expected, and the supply of goods in some regions was tight. However, with the further release of the early supply increment, the future market may restrict the rise of the market.

In terms of butadiene, the domestic spot supply is abundant and the inventory is relatively high. At the same time, the poor transaction dragged the external market into a decline, increasing the downward pressure on the domestic market. It is difficult to find obvious good news on the supply side of domestic and foreign markets. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market fell, the butadiene fundamentals continued to be short, and the spot price was at an annual low.

The overall upstream market of ABS is weak, and the cost side support of ABS is general. In terms of operating rate, in the early stage, there was the landing of new production capacity of polymerization plant. Recently, there were public health events in Zhejiang, which affected the load of some enterprises. The shutdown and maintenance equipment and resumption of production capacity showed each other, and the overall supply was expected to decrease. However, the on-site supply of goods is sufficient, and the superimposed double limit and other environmental protection policies still have an impact on the market. The on-site demand is weak, the merchant shipping pressure is increased, and the goods are passively reduced.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early December, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was weak, which weakened the assistance to ABS. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of market momentum. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.