Dongxing Securities report optimistic forecasts, 2016 this cycle of dry bulk, dry bulk shipping cycle recovery has been opened. 2017 BDI big trend is expected to exceed expectations, is expected to an increase of 33%-63%, in the long term there is still room to rise.

Used or BDI index, it is expected to usher in a super cycle?

“The container sector has bottomed out, a short time to carry freight rising with the off-season coming eased, to solve the problem of global excess capacity still needs time.” The Kawasaki (Kline) said.

CITIC Securities commodity business line senior manager Xu Xiao pointed out that the BDI base is quite low, moderate rebound is not out of the shipping market and, after falling bottoming out higher risk. In addition, the rise of the market is usually made by the new requirements appear to provide. President Barack Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure projects have been on the market a number of agencies that benefit the global ore trade, 2017 will be the catalyst of the dry bulk market.

According to the calculation results of an organization, Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure investment plan once effective incremental demand for shipping a year will give an additional 1.5%-2.6%.

However, Xu Xiao pointed out that considering the current fleet facing obsolescence or loss, overcapacity leads to long-term rates at low levels, and the ship financing more expensive and difficult; at the same time, the development of the industry is also facing the challenge of global economic uncertainty, oil prices continued to remain low, also should avoid overly optimistic.

“In fact, the shipping cycle has been from the second quarter of last year began to recover, the shipping cycle recovery lag the recovery of the global economy almost half a year or so, commodities are periodic recovery characteristics from the beginning of last year, the global economic data also show that the 2016 recovery is good, this is the basis of shipping cycle recovery. But we think it is a weak recovery, the future will be repeated, at least not back to the level of the first quarter of last year.” Jiang Xingchun said.

leading enterprises in Anhui Huaihua

operation of concentrated nitric acid with an annual output of 450 thousand tons of

nitric acid plant, offer 1550 yuan / meal, a small amount of inventory, sales in good

condition.

finance January 22nd domestic ethylene oxide price to 9550 yuan / ton (including tax), strong price. At present, the domestic downstream operating rate of ethylene oxide 5-6, with the holidays approaching, the logistics transportation is coming to an end.

In January 23rd, some areas of domestic ethylene oxide Market overview:

PetroChina Northeast company: Jilin petrochemical ethylene price quotation in 9200 yuan / ton, Fushun petrochemical price implementation of 9400 yuan / ton; Liaoyang petrochemical EO price of 9400 yuan / ton.

Shanghai Zhenhai Refinery, petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical Ethylene oxide factory implementation of 9600 yuan / ton.

Sanjiang chemical EO in the normal operation of production of an annual output of 520 thousand tons of equipment, implementation of factory price 9600 yuan / ton, plan to discuss the downstream transaction price shall prevail.

Tianjin petrochemical factory, sand petrochemical ethylene oxide 9600 yuan / ton.

Normal Wuhan ethylene 150 thousand tons / year EO unit, EO price of the latest implementation of 9600 yuan / ton.

Market summary: domestic ethylene oxide market steady – factory price cautious, downstream demand mainly follow up. The downstream domestic operating rate of ethylene oxide 5-6, with the holidays approaching, the logistics transportation is coming to an end, the end of the downstream terminal manufacturers to stop stocking, delivery. Now in the end stage, having stable epoxy ethane.

chemical market focus this week domestic bromine dropping slightly. At the beginning of the week domestic enterprises factory price price at 28833 yuan / ton, by the end of the week the domestic enterprises factory price price fell to 28791 yuan / ton, the overall decline in 0.14%, the current prices rose by 14.75% last year.

This week, the domestic enterprises and production equipment most bromine production, market supply reduction, the domestic mainstream factory price in 28500-29000 yuan / ton range, the actual transaction price low bias;

Bromine upstream related products this week prices rise, the domestic market of sulfur steady light, the overall weakness in the downstream industry demand is weak, the new single purchase, the Spring Festival approaching, the middleman operating enthusiasm is not strong, more wait-and-see market, domestic refineries prices, ports, port stocks decline, the overall performance a stalemate, turnover is not good, the overall cost of bromine market support is weak, the other related products chlorine market price stability firmed recently downstream chlorine consuming enterprises maintained mainly just need to add chlorine near the end of the year the manufacturers take the goods actively, chlorine market price stability, the cost of supporting the smooth surfaces of bromine bromine downstream; the recent market goods is relatively reduced, flame retardant market stability, the bromine buy general medicine and pesticide intermediates, enterprises operating rate fell to near the end of the year, the recent purchase of bromine also maintain demand.

This week the domestic bromine unit and gradually discontinued, only a few still maintain the normal work, but the yield is not high, although the supply concentration decline, but the downstream market demand, the overall turnover decline.

The downstream market to take the goods in general, the previous stage by the winter bromine limit production shutdown stimulation, the positive end of the procurement market, bromine industry analyst Zhou Qian think, immediately entered the Spring Festival holiday, bromine market in the short term prices will remain steady light, taking into account the post succession bromine firms will have part of the project, then the market supply will increase the market may be affected.

2016 natural rubber prices rose sharply at the beginning of the year, the price is 9760 yuan / ton, the price of 16380 yuan / ton, the annual increase of 67.83%.

In 2016 the trend of rubber can be divided into 4 stages, the first stage is the 1-2 month low shock period, the second stage is the 3-4 month period rose slightly, the third stage is 5-9 month market consolidation period, the fourth stage is the 9-12 month period rose sharply.

1-2 month price in the low volatility period

1-2 month hand although in domestic natural rubber stop cutting period, but the domestic stock at a high level, Qingdao bonded rubber stocks at a high level of 26-27 million tons, making adequate supply of domestic natural rubber prices in the spot, 000 yuan. In addition to the price of crude oil at a low level, lack of confidence of natural rubber futures market, domestic natural rubber stock turnover is poor, prices have been at a low level. On the other hand, rubber raw materials in major producing countries in Southeast Asia market is not good, Thailand and India and other countries the price of raw materials at a low level, even if the foreign government for rubber support policies, but not on the China rubber market to bring good, coupled with the raw materials of Thailand has been in a 40 baht / kg below the low level, the government of Thailand to ensure purchasing and storage of Thailand rubber price at home and abroad, the negative impact of natural rubber prices have been at a low level.

It seems from the downstream tire rubber industry chain, 1-2 month domestic tire operating rate has been at a low level as the following 6, the operating rate of low demand for natural rubber, rubber goods market is poor, price slump. With the U.S. tire “double reverse”, the domestic tire exports is limited, exports fell sharply to 4, so that the tire industry is affected by the low price of natural rubber one disaster after another. 1-2 in the manufacturing industry market downturn, although under the positive stimulus of natural rubber RRR and foreign policy in the bank cut interest rates rebound hope, but 1-2 months Chinese in trade during the Spring Festival, come to an end, therefore, 1-2 in the market is still in the low volatility period of natural rubber.

In March natural rubber market ushered in a wave of rising trend

Is a combination of haze, fog and haze. The haze is common in the city. In many areas will be incorporated into the China fog haze as disastrous weather forecast, referred to as “haze weather”.

The haze is the specific climatic conditions and human activity is the result of the interaction. The economic and social activities of high population density will emit a large amount of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), once the emissions exceed the capacity of the atmosphere circulation and carrying capacity, the concentration of fine particles will continue to accumulate, if by static stability weather effects, prone to a wide range of haze.

In 2013, the haze has become keywords. In January of this year, 4 times over the haze process in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), in Beijing, only 5 days instead of haze days. The report shows, the 500 largest city Chinese, less than 1% of the city to achieve air quality standards, recommended by the WHO at the same time, 7 Chinese in 10 the world’s most polluted city.

In January 4, 2014, the national disaster reduction office, the Ministry of civil affairs for the first time the health hazards of fog and haze included 2013 natural disaster briefing.

In December 2016, Chinese winter to the most persistent haze weather is coming, Beijing city has reached a number of serious pollution, the haze invasion including Beijing and Tianjin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and other 11 provinces, regions, the current large-scale haze is still ongoing, for Beijing, most of the time in 2016, as long as there is no the wind, fog and haze has become the norm.

What is VOCs

October domestic MIBK price rose, as of the end of the domestic price of 11220 yuan / ton, compared with the first month price 14850 yuan / ton, up 32.35% this month, the current prices for the same period last year rose 122.89%.

Two, market analysis

Products: December domestic MIBK market sharply higher. Raw materials, acetone market strong operation, a record high this year, cost effective support. The supply side, Ningbo Zhen Yang device operation is not stable, mid parking catalyst replacement, and the sources of imports to the small spot market supply. In the double support cost and supply, the factory continuously ex factory price, trade daily dish with the rise, the market focus constantly on the move. Near the end of the month, the raw material of acetone market consolidation operation, market supply is slightly better, the domestic MIBK market tends to be stable. As of the end of the month, East China offer in 14800-15000 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain: December domestic acetone overall market sharply higher, the first half of the market continue to rise, and hit a new high this year, the second half of the high office. At the beginning of the month of benzene with propylene raw materials prices rose sharply, due to cost pressures, acetone plant half successive raised ex factory price of 900 yuan / ton. In addition, the port inventory is not high, and the stock concentration, industry mentality is good, shippers offer continued high. The second half, due to the large range of haze weather and environmental restrictions, terminal factories were forced to stop or decline in demand. In addition, some profit shipments positive, the market shock consolidation. East China acetone to discuss the market price in the 7100-7200 yuan / ton.

Three, market forecast

Raw materials, acetone market is expected to consolidation operation. Device, Ningbo Zhen Yang device has returned to normal, adequate market supply. The demand side, coincides with the Spring Festival next month, the downstream demand is difficult to increase. The MIBK market is expected next month in a narrow range consolidation.

it is reported that the guardian 60% potassium chloride December 26th Tangshan Huixin offer 1800 yuan / ton, 57% price 1700 yuan / ton.

December 27th Fujian Sanming Chemical Jufeng silica price stability, price 3800 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, inventory is low.

chemical is lithium carbonate price more early small fluctuations, the current market is still in a tight spot, the country make before the release of downstream customers get positive.

In December 23rd the domestic lithium carbonate offer temporary stability, industrial grade average price of 121300 yuan / ton, compared with the previous price unchanged; battery grade price 131000 yuan / ton, compared with the previous price unchanged. The market of industrial grade lithium carbonate mainstream price at 115000-120000 yuan / ton. Battery grade lithium carbonate market mainstream price at 127000-130000 yuan / ton; industrial grade lithium hydroxide currently offer 15.5-16 yuan / ton.

In December 23rd, the ABA Li Sheng Industry Company the latest offer, industrial grade lithium hydroxide offer 155 thousand yuan / ton, battery grade lithium hydroxide offer 160 thousand yuan / ton. Sichuan Xing Sheng lithium lithium carbonate device material limited company normal operation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide, offer 155 thousand yuan / ton, battery grade lithium hydroxide offer 160 thousand yuan / ton, supply mainly supply old customers go single, firm turnover can negotiate. Sichuan state lithium Materials Co., the latest offer, industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 155 thousand yuan / ton, battery grade lithium hydroxide offer 160 thousand yuan / ton.

In winter, Qinghai area brine lithium carbonate production decreased, blue end the last batch of goods will enter the winter break, some manufacturers orders have been signed to the end of the year. Is expected in the short term the lithium carbonate Market narrow finishing the main terminal, continue to focus on new energy policy.