Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 1823.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.73%, 11.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.19 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1780 yuan / ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 40 yuan / ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation in Shandong is about to start, agricultural demand will gradually rise, and some manufacturers will operate at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies and state-owned enterprise safety, so there are too many shutdowns, and urea demand also falls considerably, which affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products slightly increased: natural gas prices quoted 2900.00 yuan / ton this week temporarily stabilized; liquid ammonia prices rose slightly this week, from 333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.04%, down 7.77% year-on-year. Urea cost support is general. Melamine prices have risen slightly downstream this week and purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late September.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China
According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite has been running steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite is general. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in 1800 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic pyrosulfite market as a whole has a relatively sufficient stock. The continuous reduction of raw material costs has led to prudent purchasing and selling of the main body of trade in the industrial chain. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, while new orders are limited. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry Chain: Soda price in the upstream is steadily moving forward this week. Sulfur price is down 2.79% again. Processing cost is still weak. Domestic pyrosulfite market price is warming up and pressured.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that raw material costs continue to be weak adjustment, downstream procurement cautious, expected next week the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to operate at the bottom.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong Province has been stable this week. The price is 223.33 yuan/ton, down 52.73% from the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulphuric acid market consolidated at a low level, with the sulphuric acid commodity index of 34.76 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong Province has been stable for a while, with less inventory and less downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 180 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early week; Zouping Tianlu is 40 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining continuously with weak cost support; the downstream monoammonium market has a poor trading atmosphere, light turnover, unsatisfactory new orders, relatively stable diammonium market, strong quotation, sulfuric acid enterprises with multiple early orders, short-term inadequate start-up, and slightly tight supply. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. The price of sulphur in the upstream has gone down all the way, and the purchasing in the downstream is general. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the products have gone down. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Ethylene oxide prices continued to stabilize this week, with factory prices of 8,000 yuan/ton in East China, 8,200 yuan/ton in South China and North China, 8,300 yuan/ton in Central China and Northeast China, 8,000 yuan/ton in Silbang Petrochemical Company, Jiangsu Province, and 8,200 yuan/ton in Lianhong Group.

The upstream ethylene oscillation is low, the profit of ethylene oxide is still acceptable, the downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer price is consolidated, the trading is general, the market atmosphere is strong, the spot price of ethylene glycol oscillation is up, the market lifting effect of ethylene oxide is slightly enhanced, there is no new progress in the device, and the supply and demand game is in the stage of reshuffling. The market stability factor occupies the mainstream position.

Short-term stability consolidation is the main task, not excluding the possibility of small shocks, we need to pay close attention to the latest factory news.

Price Trend

The domestic toluene market has been in good shape this week, with a weekly increase of about 6%, due to the rise in crude oil upstream, the decline in port inventories and the improvement in market turnover, according to the business associations’big list data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream, the decline of port stocks and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6150-6200 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory dropped by about 7,000 tons to about 27,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices continued to rebound this week, with spot Brent up 5.81%, Brent futures up 4.82%, WTI futures up 2.31%, Dubai futures down 1.85%.

Downstream, TDI, this week’s price trend is stable, trading is not strong, short-term TDI is expected to remain weak and stable trend. Compared with last week, this week’s external price is stable, FOB ARA Toluene TDI is about $687 per ton, domestic PX price is stable, and short-term PX market price is expected to maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the progress of tariff increases in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuations in demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Taken together, it is expected that the toluene market will adjust its trend with minor shocks next week.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of nitric acid in eastern China this week was 1 600 yuan/ton, and the quotation was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s nitric acid quotation is stable, Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan / ton, the quotation is stable. Anhui Jinhe stopped production; Anhui Audley quoted 1580 yuan/ton. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and individual manufacturer parks. Nitric acid shipment is general.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, the offer is stable on September 6. Downstream products, aniline prices remained stable this week compared with last week. Mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton; domestic TDI market price trend slightly decreased this week, the average market price in eastern China at the beginning of the week is about 13000 yuan/ton, and the average market price in eastern China at the weekend is about 12800 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.54% in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

In summary, Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market may be dominated by stable operation of the weak.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6622.5 yuan/ton on September 02, and domestic PVC quoted 6655 yuan/ton on September 06. The overall price fluctuation ranges from 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.49%. The price of PVC rose slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product aspect: This week, the market price of PVC has been generally stable, rising slightly. Spot actual delivery atmosphere is general, businessmen wait and see cautiously, maintain just needed procurement, no hoarding intentions, increased sales pressure. With the continuous decline of social inventory of PVC and the influence of Daqing, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction, the market supply has been significantly tightened, the prices of merchants have steadily risen, and the ex-factory prices of some enterprises have risen slightly. The price of PVC is rising and falling, the trade tension between China and the United States is escalating, and there is no better support for it in the short term. The main contract of PVC will rebound if it continues to weaken. As of September 06, according to the data of business associations, the domestic mainstream price range of PVC is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, carbide ex-factory price temporarily stable, low inventory. According to the data of Business Association on September 6, the factory price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, Qinghai is about 2850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia is about 2900 yuan/ton, and Shizuishan is about 2800 yuan/ton. Ethylene material is relatively small, low-price transactions are the main, the overall transaction is not warm.

Industry: On September 6, the rubber and plastic index was 676 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.23% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.36% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the current demand for PVC terminals is just the main demand, spot delivery is flat, the price is generally stable, it is expected that the short-term consolidation of the PVC market is the main, supply and demand game dominates the price trend.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate fell in August. On August 1, the average tax-bearing price of domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream outlets was 6550.00 yuan/ton. On August 30, the average tax-bearing price of domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream outlets was 6487.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.95%.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This month, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is cool, the actual volume is insufficient, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is negative, the downstream purchasing is just in need, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low-level purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium carbonate Market declines. According to the statistics of business associations: in August, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6450-6800 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the market of potassium carbonate declined slightly in August. After entering September, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine silver and ten ten” is approaching. Driven by various factors, the price of potassium carbonate may be warming up, mainly focusing on whether the demand end of the later period has improved. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business associations. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fluctuated and fell. In August, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide producers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling 150.00 yuan/ton, or 4.79%. Compared with last year, it fell 4.27% year-on-year. Overall, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell in August, with a larger decline. On August 31, the index of calcium carbide commodities was 75.11.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

In August, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell sharply.

The quotation of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Calcium Carbide fell from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation fell by 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Fugu County Oveganeng Calcium Carbide dropped from 3100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped by 300 yuan/ton; the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped from 3050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2850 yuan The price of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide dropped 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide rose from 2900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation increased by 50 yuan/ton.

At the end of August, the actual turnover price of calcium carbide in Northwest China ranged from 2700 to 2900 yuan/ton: the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi was between 2700 and 2800 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Ningxia was about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia was about 2800 yuan/ton.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Coke ex-factory quotation rose slightly in August, from 1803.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1816.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 13.34 yuan/ton, up 0.74%, down 26.60% compared with last year. The upstream raw material price is low and consolidated, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Downstream market: In August, the market of PVC slightly declined. The average price of PVC ex-factory quotation fell from 6742.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6622.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 120.00 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, a larger decline, 5.51% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

As a by-product of PVC by calcium carbide process, caustic soda market price was low in August. The average ex-factory price of caustic soda was 705.00 yuan/ton, which was 31.03% lower than that of last year. The low price of caustic soda consolidated this month, further reducing the demand for calcium carbide downstream.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Overall, the market of chlor-alkali industry shows a slight upward trend, and the slight upward trend of chlor-alkali market has limited impact on the demand of calcium carbide.

3. Future Market Forecast

In early September, the price of calcium carbide showed a volatile downward trend, with a small decline. Looking from the upstream, the low price of raw materials in August has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide, and compared with last year, the decline is larger; Caustic soda, the by-product of calcium carbide PVC, has been running at a low price, compared with last year, it has also fallen a lot, while the price of downstream PVC is on a downward trend, so downstream calcium carbide. Demand will weaken. At the same time, to celebrate the arrival of National Day, some manufacturers began to stop production. In the future, business analysts believe that the price of calcium carbide in early September will show a volatile downward trend, with a slight decline. The transaction price is expected to be between 2800 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of no more than 100 yuan/ton. Some calcium carbide manufacturers may adjust according to the local raw material purchase price.

Price Trend

The propane Market as a whole rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3650 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3692.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 1.16%, which was 31.06% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the propane Market in China was first restrained and then increased, and the market turnover atmosphere improved. As of August 30, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province stopped. Propane ex-factory price of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group Supply and Marketing Company is 3600 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3700 yuan/ton, Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Company is 3600 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3750 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is propane ex-factory price. The factory price is 3720 yuan/ton, and the factory price of propane of Binzhou Dayou Group is 3700 yuan/ton. Propane ex-factory price of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market fell this week, it rebounded slightly. Prices fell for two consecutive days at the beginning of the week, falling by about 50-100 yuan/ton. Inventories of factories accumulated to the highest level last weekend. Petrochemical enterprises also continuously lowered prices on non-price-adjusting days to stimulate downstream market entry. Other units mainly followed the decline and timely replenishment of downstream markets. Market shipments have increased significantly and manufacturers’inventory has eased. Since Wednesday, the price of international crude oil has been rising continuously, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream bullish mentality has been restored. The enthusiasm of entering the market is good, and the shipments of manufacturers are smooth.

At the beginning of the week, propane was steadily downward, with weak trend, no favorable market support, more on-demand replenishment in the downstream, low enthusiasm for entering the market, low overall market atmosphere, the accumulation of manufacturer inventory, profit-based delivery. Late in the week, international crude oil rose steadily, domestic liquefied petroleum gas spot followed the upward trend, coupled with the introduction of CP price in September, butane was flat compared with last month, propane was slightly lower than last month, the decline was less than expected, which boosted the market mentality. Under the downstream buy-up mentality, replenishment into the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure eased, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory at present. On the demand side, the traditional peak season “gold, silver and ten” is coming, and the market demand is expected to improve, which will play a supporting role in the market.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 25 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector in the 33-week (8.19-8.23) rise-fall list of commodity prices in 2019, of which more than 5% increase is 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities are acetic acid (8.90%), crude benzene (7.83%) and aniline (5.17%). There are 30 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-7.50%), dichloromethane (-7.35%) and sulfur (-5.48%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that although CPs prices fell in September, the decline was less than expected, which supported the market to a certain extent. In addition, demand in September is expected to improve. There is no obvious pressure on manufacturers’inventories at present, and the mood of protecting the market is obvious. It is expected to continue to rise next week or continue.