Price Trend

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise in March. At the beginning of the month, the enterprises of trichloromethane in Shandong Province quoted 2630 yuan/ton more. At the end of the month, the average price was about 326 yuan/ton, which rose by 22.31% in a month.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: Due to the low overhaul burden and inventory of trichloromethane enterprises in Shandong, and the steady demand for trichloromethane in the downstream R22 refrigerant market, the spot supply of trichloromethane in Shandong is tight, and the enterprises continue to raise their quotations. In terms of start-up, at present, 440,000 tons/year plant of Jinling Chemical Industry is in full load; 120,000 tons/year plant of Dongying Jinmao is in full load operation; 300,000 tons/year plant of Shanxi Chemical Industry is in operation 40%; 160,000 tons/year plant of Jiangsu Science and Technology is in normal operation; 120,000 tons/year plant of Jiangxi Science and Technology is in normal operation, etc. At present, Shandong offers about 3200-3250 yuan/ton, Jiangsu about 4000 yuan/ton and Jiangxi about 3650 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the explosion of Jiangsu chemical plant, rising first and then falling within a month, falling by 2.71% within a month, and the average price is about 2372 yuan/ton at present; the high level operation of liquid chlorine market, due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the Shandong market shows a situation of short supply and demand. At present, the price of Shandong is more than 250-400 yuan/ton, 50-100 yuan/ton in eastern China, and the subsidized freight in some areas is about 250-400 yuan/ton. About 200 yuan per ton. On the downstream side, the R22 refrigerant market rose first and then stabilized. At present, the downstream demand is not good, and the supply in the industry is stable. Now the enterprise’s bulk water outlet is reported to be 18500-18800 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical industry sector on March 28, 2019. The top three commodities are Polymerized MDI (2.95%), Calcium Carbide (1.77%) and Ammonium Chloride (1.49%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are PX (-8.75%), butadiene (-4.52%) and styrene (-4.33%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream market demand for trichloromethane in China has slowed down, the overhaul burden of trichloromethane enterprises has decreased a lot, the spot supply is tight and inventory is low, and the market of trichloromethane is expected to run steadily in the near future.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The weekend average price is 2033.33 yuan/ton, which is 7.15% lower than the early price of 2033.33 yuan/ton.

2. Market analysis:

Product: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to the downstream civil explosion industry shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stocks, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased, but the market prices of the upstream raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia have risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has stabilized.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is temporarily stable; the upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend is rising, the market price of liquid ammonia by the end of the week is 3450 yuan/ton, this week’s price trend is rising by 2.73%. The upstream raw material price trend has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. 。 At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, the market for nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains weak.

Industry: Recently, the market of ammonium nitrate is not good. The downstream explosion industry has stopped completely. However, the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price rise, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose this week (March 11-March 15)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5,520 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The domestic MTBE market is in the trend of first falling and then rising in this cycle. Driven by the rising international crude oil price in the middle and late of this week, the domestic gasoline market price is rising, and the purchasing intention of intermediaries for gasoline raw materials has recovered.

Industry Chain: The terminal market of refined oil is stranded. Gasoline prices are rising slightly driven by crude oil prices. Domestic gasoline manufacturers’shipments are improving. Intermediaries’ purchasing intentions for gasoline raw materials are improving. When middlemen replenish their products at low prices, MTBE shipment atmosphere has improved significantly. The actual negotiation prices have increased slightly supported by the rise in crude oil.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the demand of MTBE in North China can be maintained at present, but it is difficult to forecast the price to continue to rise under the insufficient support. However, international oil prices still have an upward trend, MTBE prices are expected to rise steadily and moderately.

On March 13, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.64% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 37.34% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weak and consolidated, downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, the inventory pressure of factories is persistent, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring method source negotiation is 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6500-6600 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in northern China is 6500-6800 yuan/ton, and the Main, the quotation trend of enterprises has slightly declined, downstream construction is not high, purchase on demand is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, phthalic anhydride price trend remains weak.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks maintain stability, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation rises, import phthalic cost rises, the actual transaction price talks in detail, upstream price trend is stable, phthalic anhydride market prices remain volatile. DOP price downstream shocks. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations are maintained at 8650-8700 yuan/ton, while downstream prices are at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6800 yuan/ton in the later period.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices fell this week (March 4-March 9)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5600 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: MTBE market in China is in a downward trend this week. The domestic gasoline market is declining, the demand of MTBE market is weakening, and the rigid purchasing demand of gasoline raw materials is declining because of the poor delivery of intermediaries.

Industry Chain: The terminal market of refined oil is expected to decline, the price of gasoline is down, the domestic gasoline manufacturers are facing difficulties in delivering gasoline, and the pressure of inventory is high. The rigid demand for gasoline raw materials such as MTBE is continuously weakening. The MTBE manufacturers’shipping price is not smoothly lowered and the intermediaries are affected by the buying-up-not-buying-down mentality. The market intention is more cautious. In view of the current market atmosphere, the price of MTBE still exists. Set downside risk.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of the Energy Branch of Business Cooperatives believe that the middlemen are more cautious about entering the market because of their buying-up and not-buying-down mentality. In view of the current market climate, MTBE prices still have some downside risks.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 6, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 11,100 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was running steadily.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market is running steadily. Some manufacturers have increased their quotations. The demand for downstream chemical fibers is still acceptable. Solvent market needs to be purchased just now, and high-price transactions are common. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in the North China market is delivered in cash from 1100 to 11200, the mainstream offer in the East China market is delivered in cash from 1130 to 11500, and the mainstream offer in the South China market is delivered in cash from 1160 to 11800.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: The focus of negotiations on pure benzene in East China continues to soften. Spot purchase price is 4780-4790 yuan/ton and sale price is 4880 yuan/ton. In March, we bought 4850 yuan/ton and sold 4910-4920 yuan/ton. In April, we bought 4900 yuan/ton and sold 4930-4950 yuan/ton. At present, there is hardly any storage capacity of pure benzene in irrigation area, encountering shipment pressure, and the center of gravity continues to soften. Caprolactam: Horizontal market of caprolactam in China. Due to the weak market trend of downstream PA6 chips, the poor sales of self-chips in polymerization factories, the enthusiasm of raw material purchasing declined, and the high price of caprolactam decreased. At present, the spot price of caprolactam liquids refers to 13900 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered. On the solid side, the middleman accompanies the shipment at the price of 1450-15000 yuan/ton, which is remitted to us now.

3. Future Market Forecast

Pure benzene was slightly lowered, the cost support was unstable, and the demand of downstream chemical fiber market was still acceptable, but the demand of terminal slice Market was weak. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the short-term market for cyclohexanone is weak, high and stable.

Price Trend

In February 2019, the tin ingot Market rose. The average price in domestic market was 146812.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 149350 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.73%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 105.21, up 1.14 points from yesterday, down 21.49% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29) and 40.98% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: before the Spring Festival, the market is relatively cold. Most manufacturers completed stock purchase at the end of January and entered the Spring Festival holiday ahead of schedule. After the opening of the Spring Festival Holiday, there are fragmented just-in-demand transactions in the market. The futures market boosted the domestic spot tin market by resuming trading on November 11. However, the market transaction is limited, some enterprises are still digesting pre-holiday inventory, prices can not obtain transaction support, spot market prices fluctuate randomly. By the end of the month, the mainstream domestic market turnover was 148500-150000 yuan/ton, but the downstream market entry was still on the lookout, with general turnover. Rising and discounting water is basically stable in Yunxi’s discount of 500 yuan/ton to 1905 contract, 1500 yuan/ton to ordinary Yunzi discount water and 2000 yuan/ton to small brand discount water. The discount once expanded to 800-2200 yuan/ton due to the sharp rise in tin price on Monday alone.

International Markets: This week, the US dollar fell from its high last week, US crude oil showed 4 lianyang, reaching a recent high of US$57.88 per barrel. The latest progress of Sino-US negotiations announced a temporary postponement of the original tariff levy on China on March 1. The market was boosted by positive sentiment. Domestic A-share market was booming, nearly 3000 points, and the metal market was red.

Import and export: China imported 30,179 tons of tin ore and concentrate in January, of which 29,389 tons came from Myanmar. In January, tin shipments from Myanmar mines were estimated at 7,100 tons, up 48% annually and down 36% year-on-year. In addition to Myanmar, China imported 1,329 tons of tin ore (gross weight) from other countries in January.

Major domestic events: On February 23, a major safety accident occurred in Yinman Mine, and the mine is now in a state of shutdown. The Inner Mongolia Security Committee has asked the area to carry out a one-month safety inspection, which may have some impact on the production of other tin mines in the area. Market participants predict that Yinman mining accident may lead to a three-month to one-year shutdown of its mine. In 2018, the tin concentrate production in Yinman Mine is estimated to be about 7,000 tons, accounting for about 8% of the domestic tin concentrate production. Yinman Mine is also the third largest tin mine in China. It is the only new tin mine project in China in recent decades. The shutdown of Yinman Mine is bound to have a greater impact on the domestic tin supply. In addition, Myanmar’s tin supply this year will continue to decrease by about 15,000 tons on the basis of last year’s 15,000 tons. The domestic tin supply may intensify the tension. In addition, according to past experience, small tin mines in Jiangxi will also stop production during the two sessions in early March, so supply tension in March may be more prominent.

International events: Jakarta, Feb. 8, according to data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, Indonesia exported 4,115.45 tons of refined tin in January, down nearly 22% annually and 9% year-on-year. The total export volume of refined tin in 2018 was 75,677.49 tons, down 3% from 78,189.97 tons in 2017.

On February 21, Governor Gumar of North Kazakhstan announced that the largest undeveloped tin deposit in the world would be developed in North Kazakhstan, with an investment of 4 billion tenge, or about 10.6 million US dollars. “For many years, the only tin deposit in Kazakhstan and the largest tin deposit in Central Asia has been developed in the Ayyrtau area. The divestiture project will start in May, and this year’s investment will reach 4 billion tenge, “the governor said. According to him, the overall commissioning will be completed in 2021 with a total investment of 100 billion tenge (about 1.9 billion yuan). Syrymbet deposit is the only tin deposit in Kazakhstan and the largest tin deposit in Central Asia. The deposit was developed by Tin One Mining Ltd. (before 2017, Tin One Mining Ltd. Limited Liability Company), whose shareholders are\1082;\\1091;1090;1082;1082;-(25%).

3. Prospects for the Future Market

There will be a lot of data next week, with the US dollar showing downward signs. As China enters March, downstream construction will gradually resume. With the convening of the “two sessions”, market sentiment will remain more positive, and spot tin market will have a slight upward margin.

Foreign Power Feb. 15, Saudi Arabia said in a statement on Friday that all the company’s facilities and equipment, including the Safaniyah oilfield, are safe and normal.

Safaniyah oil field was shut down in Saudi Arabia and the United States, a person familiar with the matter said earlier, because some of the main power cables were cut off due to the anchorage of the barge.

On February 13, the rare earth index was 345 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.50% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 398,000 yuan/ton, 1,655,000 yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 399.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

Recently, 12 departments have seriously dealt with illegal enterprises such as reselling illegal rare earth minerals, resulting in the cold trade in the domestic rare earth market. Some commodity prices in the rare earth market have declined, mainly concentrated in Praseodymium-Neodymium alloys and neodymium oxides. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in a decline in imports, which has a negative impact on the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the price trend of some rare earth products is weak, but the price trend of most products is temporarily stable.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the recent domestic environmental stringent inspection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry, which will have a certain positive impact on the rare earth industry. Recent transactions are limited, the rare earth industry turnover is cold, and the price trend of the rare earth market is expected to be temporarily stable.

Price Trend

This month, acetone market consolidation was the main factor, the overall change was not big, and the atmosphere of market negotiations was calm. According to the monitoring of commodity data of business associations, petrochemical companies listed 3650 yuan/ton this week, the market rose and fell, and the overall turnover was general. The market offer is basically the same as the listing.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The domestic acetone market is weak, and the market is difficult to improve. At present, the market performance is cold, the terminal just needs to replenish, the Spring Festival is approaching, manufacturers reduce inventory, traders lack confidence. At the end of the month, the stock of acetone port in East China was 49,000 tons, which was 1,000 tons less than that on January 14, including 35,000 tons in West China and 14,000 tons in Hengyang. Up to now, the main negotiation range of East China market is 3600 yuan/ton, Yanshan surrounding market and Shandong mainstream negotiation price is 3650 yuan/ton, and South China market negotiation range is 3800 yuan/ton. Overall, the market offer was narrowly adjusted compared with last week.

Industry chain: pure benzene: This month, the pure benzene market rose first and then stabilized. At the end of the month, the pure benzene listed 4650-4700 yuan/ton level. So far, the long holiday effect of the Spring Festival appears. The quotation of the factory remains unchanged. Traders generally suspend the quotation. The domestic pure benzene market is light, showing a price-free market, waiting for the return of the festival. Propylene: This month’s overall decline in the propylene market, so far the market sentiment is still strong wait-and-see. Although the market is negative, the ups and downs are generally supported, but cost constraints, it is expected that the propylene market may continue to decline, but the decline is limited. Downstream terminal construction has been reduced. At present, purchasing is mainly needed.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the acetone market is closed, and there are few market inquiries. Traders are basically on holiday. At present, the acetone market as a whole operates in a weak position, with general turnover. Acetone analysts from business associations believe that the holiday acetone market is running smoothly and the acetone talks in East China are at 3850 yuan per ton.