On April 21, the PX Commodity Index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The market of p-xylene in Asia is closed on April 19. The closing price of the previous trading day was US$947-949/ton FOB in Korea and US$966-968/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 19, the crude oil price was closed, the June futures market of WTI crude oil in the United States was closed at $64.00 per barrel, and the June futures market of Brent crude oil was closed at $71.97 per barrel. The trend of crude oil price was volatile. The price of downstream petrochemical products lost some cost support, while the price of p-xylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend maintained low on 22nd, East China average offer in the vicinity of 6500-6600 yuan/ton, up to 19 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 80%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, is expected to lower PX market price in the later period.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average listing price of ethylene glycol in North China on April 19 was 4850 yuan/ton, down 2.02% from the previous cycle, and then a new low.

Domestic spot market prices continued to fall slightly this week. The mainstream price of ethylene glycol in eastern China has dropped to around 4615 yuan/ton, while that in southern China has remained around 4600 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

So far this week, the domestic oil-based ethylene glycol start-up rate is about 81%, coal-based ethylene glycol start-up rate is about 72%, enterprise supply is sufficient.

As of Wednesday, ethylene glycol stocks in East China’s main ports were about 1.284 million tons, down from the previous year.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ethylene glycol analysts at business associations predict that the oil-to-ethylene glycol project is in a loss position as the market price of ethylene glycol falls all the way. Affected by cost pressures, ethylene glycol manufacturers may reduce supply later. However, due to the slow de-inventory progress of the port, the current low price may continue to be maintained.

Since the end of March, potassium chloride has stabilized and rebounded slightly. At present, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium in the port has been restored to about 2400 yuan, and the transaction reference is about 2350-2380 yuan. The high-end transaction is more difficult, but the low-end sellable sources are becoming more and more difficult to find.

The reason for this rise is not that demand is really improving, but that it is concentrated purchasing of large orders at relatively low prices. Secondly, although the total stock of existing ports has decreased from the previous peak period, it is still higher than the same level in recent years. Third, the extent of the reduction in arrivals is uncertain for the time being, and the seller hopes to use the possible reduction to speculate. Fourthly, the rebound of potassium chloride is not an ironclad one. The Northeast market is gradually coming to an end. The prices of white potassium in border trade and large-grain potassium chloride in Quarry Bay have been loosened. Fifth, the upper echelons are more restrained in pulling up, whether it is suspension or quotation of high prices, but there is no further speculation.

The real important thing is the negotiation of large contracts, because it is not only the cost factor in the future, but also the process of negotiation is the reflection of the long-term trend judgment of potassium chloride between Chinese and foreign sides. The FMB meeting in Shanghai two days ago had no news on the negotiation of large contracts, and it still needed to wait patiently.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market trend of powdered ammonium remained stable this week, with an average domestic market price of 2166 yuan/ton, an average price of 2166 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a weekend price of 2166 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the domestic ammonium market is running steadily, and the market demand is relatively flat. At present, most enterprises still mainly carry out pre-order. At present, 60% of the mainstream ammonium powder factory quoted 2200-2400 yuan/ton in Hubei area, the overall stable operation; Henan market stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2200 yuan/ton, stable start-up; Sichuan 73% of industrial ammonium factory quoted 4000-4200 yuan/ton; Anhui market stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2200 yuan/ton, stable start-up. Most enterprises have normal operation of equipment, normal orders and normal delivery.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material phosphoric acid market declined slightly as a whole, the volume of new single transaction was general, the supply of phosphate ore increased, and the overall stock was high. The demand for ammonium in downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate business analysts believe that the spring farming market is gradually following up, and enterprise inventory is gradually declining. But the trade is still flat, and the market for monoammonium phosphate may remain stable in the short term.

On April 10, the listing price of xylene for Sinopec’s enterprises increased in South China, while other areas remained stable. Last night, oil prices fell, and yesterday’s xylene market trading situation was not good, the atmosphere was cold, traders quoted lower, the latest isomeric xylene quotation is about 5700-5750 yuan per ton.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 15 575 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 15 325 yuan/ton. The price fell within the week, with a range of 1.61%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices fell slightly this week. At present, market transactions are dull, traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and downstream picking up goods is more cautious. At present, the main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 14700-15400 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Sichuan is about 15,500 yuan/ton. The main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 15 300 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: Most mines in the domestic phosphate ore market have resumed mining this week, with increased supply and high overall inventory. The mainstream quotation is about 450 yuan/ton. This week, coke prices were stable. The mainstream market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2,080 yuan per ton. Affected by the explosion accident in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, the safety inspection shows that the downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus have insufficient start-up rate and light demand.

Thirdly, the analyst of yellow phosphorus in the future forecast business society chemical branch thinks that the overall demand of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus is light, the downstream demand is on the wait-and-see state, the procurement is not active, there is no good support in the field, and the downward trend is expected in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of April 2, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 9 433 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was mainly stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market has been steadily adjusted, purchasing situation of downstream chemical fiber factories is still acceptable, delivery pressure of some cyclohexanone factories is reduced, the solvent market just needs to be stocked up, and the market delivery atmosphere is still acceptable. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is sent in cash from 9300 to 9500, the mainstream offer in East China market is sent in cash from 9500 to 9700, and the mainstream offer in South China market is sent in cash from 9900 to 10100.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: The market information is less, the market atmosphere is relatively light at the beginning of the month. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is 4250-4350 yuan/ton, the purchase price is 4250 yuan/ton in April, and the sale price is 4350-4400 yuan/ton. Caprolactam: Caprolactam liquid market prices rose slightly, downstream polymerization capacity is more, part of the caprolactam factory overhaul, supply support, on-site trading center of gravity rose slightly. The spot price of caprolactam liquids is delivered by acceptance of RMB 14 000-14300 per ton. On the solid side, due to the rising price of liquids, part of the solid side sells at a low price. The price refers to 14500-14700 yuan/ton, which is remitted to us now. The price of the northern part is slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

Pure benzene market is temporarily stable, cost support is still stable, downstream chemical fiber overall start-up reduced, the market rose slightly, but the demand for cyclohexanone is also reduced. Cyclohexanone analysts from business associations predict that the short-term market for cyclohexanone will remain stable.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise in March. At the beginning of the month, the enterprises of trichloromethane in Shandong Province quoted 2630 yuan/ton more. At the end of the month, the average price was about 326 yuan/ton, which rose by 22.31% in a month.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: Due to the low overhaul burden and inventory of trichloromethane enterprises in Shandong, and the steady demand for trichloromethane in the downstream R22 refrigerant market, the spot supply of trichloromethane in Shandong is tight, and the enterprises continue to raise their quotations. In terms of start-up, at present, 440,000 tons/year plant of Jinling Chemical Industry is in full load; 120,000 tons/year plant of Dongying Jinmao is in full load operation; 300,000 tons/year plant of Shanxi Chemical Industry is in operation 40%; 160,000 tons/year plant of Jiangsu Science and Technology is in normal operation; 120,000 tons/year plant of Jiangxi Science and Technology is in normal operation, etc. At present, Shandong offers about 3200-3250 yuan/ton, Jiangsu about 4000 yuan/ton and Jiangxi about 3650 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the explosion of Jiangsu chemical plant, rising first and then falling within a month, falling by 2.71% within a month, and the average price is about 2372 yuan/ton at present; the high level operation of liquid chlorine market, due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the Shandong market shows a situation of short supply and demand. At present, the price of Shandong is more than 250-400 yuan/ton, 50-100 yuan/ton in eastern China, and the subsidized freight in some areas is about 250-400 yuan/ton. About 200 yuan per ton. On the downstream side, the R22 refrigerant market rose first and then stabilized. At present, the downstream demand is not good, and the supply in the industry is stable. Now the enterprise’s bulk water outlet is reported to be 18500-18800 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical industry sector on March 28, 2019. The top three commodities are Polymerized MDI (2.95%), Calcium Carbide (1.77%) and Ammonium Chloride (1.49%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, one of which is more than 5%, accounting for 1.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are PX (-8.75%), butadiene (-4.52%) and styrene (-4.33%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream market demand for trichloromethane in China has slowed down, the overhaul burden of trichloromethane enterprises has decreased a lot, the spot supply is tight and inventory is low, and the market of trichloromethane is expected to run steadily in the near future.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The weekend average price is 2033.33 yuan/ton, which is 7.15% lower than the early price of 2033.33 yuan/ton.

2. Market analysis:

Product: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to the downstream civil explosion industry shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stocks, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased, but the market prices of the upstream raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia have risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has stabilized.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is temporarily stable; the upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend is rising, the market price of liquid ammonia by the end of the week is 3450 yuan/ton, this week’s price trend is rising by 2.73%. The upstream raw material price trend has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. 。 At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, the market for nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains weak.

Industry: Recently, the market of ammonium nitrate is not good. The downstream explosion industry has stopped completely. However, the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price rise, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose this week (March 11-March 15)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5,520 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The domestic MTBE market is in the trend of first falling and then rising in this cycle. Driven by the rising international crude oil price in the middle and late of this week, the domestic gasoline market price is rising, and the purchasing intention of intermediaries for gasoline raw materials has recovered.

Industry Chain: The terminal market of refined oil is stranded. Gasoline prices are rising slightly driven by crude oil prices. Domestic gasoline manufacturers’shipments are improving. Intermediaries’ purchasing intentions for gasoline raw materials are improving. When middlemen replenish their products at low prices, MTBE shipment atmosphere has improved significantly. The actual negotiation prices have increased slightly supported by the rise in crude oil.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that the demand of MTBE in North China can be maintained at present, but it is difficult to forecast the price to continue to rise under the insufficient support. However, international oil prices still have an upward trend, MTBE prices are expected to rise steadily and moderately.