On August 27th, the PX Commodity Index was 66.60, which was 0.2 points higher than yesterday, which was 34.96% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 102.40 points (2013-02-28), which was 46.21 points higher than the lowest point of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic p-xylene market price trend has been temporarily stabilized. The on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical has been overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant has started 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 27th, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased by USD 24/ton, and the closing price was USD 1251-1253/ton FOB Korea and USD 1270-1272/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil futures market price rose in October, reported 68.87 US dollars / barrel, or 0.15 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures prices rose to 76.21 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 0.39 US dollars, the upstream raw material prices rose slightly, coupled with the recent textile The industry’s market remained high and the PX market price rose slightly. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the 28th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 81.6%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price of the East China region was 9100-9150 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-raising, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will rise slightly in the later period.

First, the trend analysis

As shown in the above chart, domestic copper prices fell sharply after this week, and the domestic spot copper price was 49572.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 48050 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 3.07%.

Second, the market analysis

The Shanghai copper index rose slightly by 49,900 yuan at the beginning of this week. Since then, the price pressure has accelerated to a low of 47,270 yuan. This week, it finally closed at 47,720 yuan, down 1890 yuan, or 3.81%. The index weekly position increased by 26,010 hands to 625,000 hands. This week, the price of copper has weakened sharply. The low position in the middle of the week attracted the downstream replenishment. After the delivery, the market supply was in short supply, and the spot rose to the water. The middle-man traders at the end of the week boosted. According to the survey results of the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center, most traders see short-term copper prices stabilized and oscillating, and the premiums will remain high.

On the macro side: Trump’s government practices are radical. China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have been suppressed to varying degrees. This week, the Lira plunged, the Turkish crisis, and the US dollar rose, which constantly triggered market pessimism and put pressure on copper prices. At the end of the week, China and the United States planned to conduct trade consultations. The market sentiment was slightly eased and the copper market rebounded slightly.

On the supply side, this week Chile’s Escondida copper mine reached an agreement to avoid strikes, supply is expected to increase, and copper prices are under pressure.

Third, the outlook outlook

Based on the above situation, the business community’s non-ferrous branch copper analysts believe that this week’s Turkish crisis triggered a wave of asset-selling in the whole market. The strong US dollar caused the non-ferrous metals to fall sharply. In addition, Chile’s Escondida copper mine reached an agreement to avoid strikes, and supply expectations increased. The price of copper has fallen sharply. However, the future depreciation of the RMB and the accelerated infrastructure in the second half of the year will bring good benefits to the copper price. It is expected that the short-term copper price will fluctuate and the price will be around RMB 48,000/ton.

Price trend: As of August 10, the average domestic ex-factory price of naphtha in China is 6,957.50 yuan / ton, up 2.95% from 6408.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of ground naphtha is 6900-7200 yuan / Ton.

Industry chain: According to business monitoring, the US WTI crude oil was US$68.96/barrel at the beginning of the week, US$66.81/barrel at the weekend, and the weekly increase was -3.12%. Brent crude oil was US$73.45/barrel at the beginning of the week. At $72.07/barrel, the weekly gains and losses were -1.88%.

Macro: In July 2018, the Business Social Enterprise’s Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) was 0.12, with an increase of 0.59%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy was expanding in the month and the economy was running smoothly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 32nd week of 2018 (8.6-8.10), there were 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose in the energy sector. Among them, one of the products with a price increase of more than 5%, accounting for the monitored products in the sector. 6.3% of the number; the top 3 commodities were dimethyl ether (5.23%), methanol (4.67%) and coke (3.98%). There were 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 1 product with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were LNG (-5.80%) and WTI crude oil (-3.12). %), Brent crude oil (-1.88%). This week’s average price increase was 1.78%.

Market outlook: Business community energy analysts believe that the international crude oil shocks down, the downstream wait-and-see mood deepens, but the recent repairs in the refining, low naphtha stocks, stable refinery demand, coupled with the rise in the price of naphtha, on the stone brain The oil market has a certain supporting role. It is expected that the recent price of naphtha will rise slightly in the near future, and the average price range may be 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Under the rotation of commodity style, chemical products futures have recently entered a rebound stage, in which methanol and PTA futures prices are the strongest. As of yesterday’s close, the main contract of methanol futures closed at 3,225 yuan / ton, the highest record since February 2013, the double volume also increased.

Analysts pointed out that the methanol price has been stable and rising since last week. The main contract price exceeded 3,000 yuan / ton. The price was unstoppable. Yesterday, the intraday price hit a high of 3,300 yuan, hitting a new high in five years. Among them, the last three The cumulative increase on the trading day exceeded 10%. From a fundamental point of view, recent exchange rate fluctuations have raised the cost of methanol imports, and port inventories are still at a low level. Overall, the market is generally optimistic about the rising methanol prices.

Low inventory into the main reason for higher prices

In the recent methanol spot market, the logic of the current price rise is that the current port inventory is at a low level, and the short-term low inventory phenomenon is difficult to change due to difficulties in both domestic and foreign purchase routes.

Fundamentally, according to the inventory fluctuations of previous years, it is generally the traditional off-season of the downstream of the methanol industry from July to September of each year until the “Golden September and Silver 10” is consumed again. However, this year’s situation is quite special, and port stocks have not been improved.

Relevant data show that as of August 2, the inventory of Huadong Port was 268,000 tons, and there was no upward trend. The circulation of Jiangsu Province was 52,200 tons, and Zhejiang was only 0.3 million tons. Although the mainland cargo ships have recently arrived in the Ningbo and Zhangpu areas, the speed of unloading in the two places is extremely slow, and some of the goods are still waiting for unloading, but no methanol is expected to be put into storage.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the recent methanol import has not improved. It is estimated that the methanol import in July was 565,500 tons. Although it increased by 106,500 tons compared with June, it still declined compared with the usual. Considering that the current domestic regional prices are still at a low level relative to the global market, the export volume will continue to increase in August, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in the spot price of methanol.

At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations have also raised import costs. At the beginning of June, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.4, and now it is 6.85, which is equivalent to an increase of 80 yuan per ton. The domestic main port CIF has no advantage over other regions. The Chinese main port price is 402 USD/ton.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures analysis believes that the collective rise of this methanol and other chemical products, mainly due to low inventory, exchange rate fluctuations lead to poor imports, large port arbitrage range, downstream products, and the convergence of nearby delivery and other factors. . The 1809 contract may still have room for growth in the short term, but it is a fishtail market and has a high risk. It is not recommended to continue to pursue more. In the short term, attention should be paid to the follow-up situation and inventory changes in the East China spot market.

Simultaneous enlargement of transactions and positions

“Securities Daily” reporters according to yesterday’s after-hours data observation, the organization’s transactions in methanol futures and positions have also been enlarged. From the top 20 main institutional seats, the total transaction volume was 1,333,800 lots, an increase of 540,000 lots from the previous trading day; it showed that the methanol transaction was more active.

In addition, from the top 20 main institutional seats, the total holdings amounted to 310,000 contracts, an increase of 3,248 contracts compared with the previous trading day; correspondingly, the total number of sell orders was 289,000 contracts, an increase from the previous trading day. Warehouse 16671 hands; in comparison with long and short positions, the market atmosphere is still dominated by long positions.

In terms of institutions, Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Huishang Futures traded at the highest volume on the day, with 208,000 contracts, 119,000 contracts and 87,000 contracts respectively, both of which increased year-on-year. However, in the long position, although Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Yongan Futures ranked higher, Huatai Futures reduced its position by 14,000 contracts, indicating that some of the bulls’ confidence was loose. At the same time, in terms of short positions, Yongan Futures, Huatai Futures and Haitong Futures ranked high, but Yongan Futures seats reduced their positions significantly, and nearly 10,000 hands were reduced.

From the perspective of market capital flow, the overall domestic commodity market has been mainly net inflows, and black and chemical products are the most popular. Yesterday, the black and coal sectors had a net inflow of 2.162 billion yuan and 572 million yuan respectively, but the chemical sector reversed. The situation is out of 113 million yuan. In addition, Apple’s futures rose sharply in the end, with a total of 250 million yuan inflows.

Shenyin Wanguo futures from the perspective of positions, 1809 contract in the case of near delivery, against the trend of Masukura. Since July 31, 50,000 consecutive positions have been added, but 45,000 hands have been lightened on the 6th, indicating that speculative sentiment has declined.

On August 7, the PX Commodity Index was 66.40, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 35.16% from the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 45.77% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene remained at 8,300 yuan/ton, the on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant was started at 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 7, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia fell by US$7/ton, and the closing price was 1101.5-1109.5 USD/ton FOB Korea and 1120.5-1122.5 USD/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil futures market price rose in September, reported 69.17 US dollars / barrel, or 0.16 US dollars, Brent crude oil October futures prices rose to 74.65 US dollars / barrel, or 0.90 US dollars. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 7th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 73%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price of the East China region was 7200-7350 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-lifting, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will remain high in the later period.