The phenol Market in China is shaking and the offer in East China is low. At present, Petrochemical is listed at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 8,300 yuan/ton in East China, 8,500 yuan/ton in Shandong and 8,500 yuan/ton in Yanshan. Last week, although the port had a shipment due, the customs formalities involved have not yet been supplied to the market. At present, the supply side of phenol Market is relatively stable, but the terminal demand is low and the intention of offering is low. Business associations expect the phenol Market in East China to offer a range of 8300-8350 yuan/ton.

By the end of January 11, Butadiene FOB Rotterdam Spot was 878-882 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; Butadiene FD Northwest Europe Spot was 843-847 Euro/ton, up 30 Euro/ton.

On Jan. 10, 2018, when the media turned around, Thai Agriculture Minister grisada boonrach said that Thailand had reduced rubber production by 4.5 million tons to 3 million tons and planted area by 4.2 million hectares to 2.4 million hectares. It is planned to be implemented in the next five years. The news has not been reproduced by many media, and can not identify the credibility.

If production is cut by 300,000 tons in 2019, rubber will rebound substantially, expected to be around 20%.

But some of Thailand’s rubber policies are limited to discussions or claims, and many undecided and unrealized situations have occurred. So for the time being, the market has not risen sharply.

Rubber rebounds back to the shock zone.

The glue price responds to the fact that the spot determined by China’s high inventory is difficult to rise. Demand is stable and slightly pessimistic, supply is not significantly reduced short-term expectations, superimposed rubber prices are expected to rise at a lower position in 10 years, in a weak equilibrium state.

Thai research information feedback reduces production. The Thai government may introduce the Lido rubber measures.

Rubber prices fell to the lowest level in 2018. Pressure in rubber-producing countries has increased and supply-side actions have taken place in various countries. There was no clear plan of action at the Rubber Tripartite Meeting.

Thai spot prices rebounded at the bottom, ahead of Chinese spot prices.

The price industry of 11,000 is not enthusiastic enough to further reduce production or occur. Considering that both industry information and ANRPC report point to the direction of production reduction. Receiving pressure disappeared. It’s better to stop cutting at home and start a high rate of production and export. It can support rubber rebound. But the rubber rebound was weak, and a favorable short price returned to the starting point.

How about the industry?

As of January 4, 2019, natural rubber stocks in the previous period were 432305 (4634) tons and 385660 (6840) tons.

As of January 4, 2019, the start-up rate of all-steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 69.91%, down 1.76 percentage points annually, up 8.66 percentage points year on year. Semi-steel tire start-up rate of domestic tire enterprises is 66.19%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous year and 0.21 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. January is in the slack season of domestic demand, and production is expected to be ready for the Spring Festival.

On December 1, Fang Xinghai said that it would actively promote the listing of rubber futures No. 20.

We estimate that the price of glue may fall between 300 and 1000 yuan due to the announcement of No. 20 glue on the market. Uncertainty is high. Attention should be paid to this risk.

Goods in stock

Last trading day, from 16:00 p.m. to 18:00 p.m. in spot market, compound glue quoted 10600 yuan (-50). RU1901 is a little high.

After the rebound, the spot price of futures has risen from 1200 to 1400 yuan, which has attracted the attention of arbitrage selling.

Suggestions on the operation of natural rubber mesh:

Operational point of view, wait-and-see or intra-day short-term trading.

Rubber may rebound in the next month, but the shortfall of No. 20 rubber is difficult to avoid. The risk of a sharp drop in the announcement of a listing is relatively high. If this risk occurs, the conservative investor will stop earnings in advance. Active investors can set up mobile stops beforehand.

NEW YORK, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) — COMEX copper futures rose Tuesday and the Sino-US trade negotiations entered their third day. Traders closely followed the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations.

The most active COMEX March copper contract rose 0.07% to close at $2.6560 a pound.

A member of the U.S. delegation said Tuesday that the trade talks between China and the United States in Beijing will continue tomorrow and the negotiations scheduled to end in two days will enter the third day. The world’s two largest economies are now seeking to resolve their fierce trade disputes.

Chile’s copper production is likely to grow by nearly 30% over the next 10 years, according to a report released Monday by the Chilean Copper Commission.

Chile’s copper production may reach a record 7.25 million tons as early as 2025, the Commission said in a report. Chile is the largest copper producer in the world.

India’s High Court on Tuesday rejected the ruling of the National Environment Court, clearing the way for the reopening of a copper mine in the south, a lawyer for Vedanta Resources Group said.

The domestic phenol market has a strong focus before the holiday. In the early stage of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the atmosphere of the inquiry in the East China region tends to be better. The spot price is tight, and the traders are concentrating on raising prices. The market is expected to increase, but the terminal still purchases on demand, which is obviously inconsistent with the high position. The North China area was parked by Zhongsha No. 3 and is currently under restart. It is expected to be available tomorrow. The offer in South China is firm, and Huizhou Zhongxin is 12,100 yuan / ton, which is in short supply.

Phenol main market offer situation: As of now, the mainstream reference offer in East China is 11,200 yuan / ton, Yanshan area supply is tight, the price continues to be high, the offer is at 11,600 yuan / ton, the Shandong supply is tight, the mainstream offer is 11,400 yuan / ton, Henan The regional offer was 11,500 yuan / ton, and the South China region’s offer rose to 11,700 yuan / ton.

On the whole, the market demand is not good. The phenol analysts of the business community believe that the phenol market in East China is mainly stable in the short term, and the market offer is 11200-11300 yuan/ton.

On September 17, the price of cobalt in the main non-ferrous metal spot market in China remained stable. The average price of cobalt was priced at RMB 49,0250.00/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day, up 13.97% year-on-year.

On September 17, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 16th, the cobalt commodity index was 176.17, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.26% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 152.25% higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 17, the domestic price of cobalt was temporarily stabilized, and the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai remained stable, and the actual transaction price remained stable. On September 17, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 476,000-496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt was stable. On September 17, the stock was 472 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.25 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the cobalt market is in an oversupply state. In terms of demand, the cobalt market has a certain transaction, but the market is still based on on-demand procurement. In the international market, the price of cobalt and MB in the LEM market in London increased, and the domestic market followed suit. However, the overall supply-demand relationship did not change significantly. The high supply and low demand led to the weakening of the cobalt price and the risk of falling. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the early stage, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, the increase in international cobalt prices has led to a rise in domestic cobalt prices. However, due to the absence of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, cobalt prices are difficult to maintain, and domestic cobalt prices are still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt will fluctuate and stabilize. The price of cobalt is stable.

On September 13, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market rose, and the average price of cobalt was 48,9750.00 yuan / ton, up 0.67% from the previous trading day.

On September 13, the domestic major manufacturers’ metal cobalt prices were temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 12th, the cobalt commodity index was 175.00, which was 2.25 points lower than yesterday, which was 26.75% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 150.57 higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 13, the domestic price of cobalt was down, the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was stable, and the actual transaction price fell. On September 13, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 472,000-496,000 yuan/ton, the price of cobalt was stable, and the inventory on September 13 was 457.5 tons, and the inventory increased by 12 tons. The supply of cobalt was at a high level, and the sudden drop in cobalt price suddenly stimulated the desire of downstream enterprises to purchase. On the 12th, the turnover of cobalt was increased, but the market still focused on on-demand purchase. The price of cobalt and MB in the international London LEM market rose, and the domestic market followed suit. Rising, but the overall domestic supply and demand relationship has not changed, high supply and low demand led to weak cobalt prices and increased risk of downside. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, the increase in international cobalt prices has led to a rise in domestic cobalt prices. However, due to the absence of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, cobalt prices are difficult to maintain, and domestic cobalt prices are still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt will fluctuate and stabilize. The price of cobalt is stable.

On September 12, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market fell, and the average price of cobalt was 48,5600.00 yuan / ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day.

On September 12th, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 11th, the cobalt commodity index was 177.25, which was 1.17 points higher than yesterday, which was 25.81% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 153.79 higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 12, the domestic price of cobalt was down, the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was stable, and the actual transaction price fell. On September 12, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 472,000-496,000 yuan/ton, the price of cobalt was stable, and the inventory on September 12 was 445.5 tons, and the inventory decreased by 186.5 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, but the market is still dominated by the wait-and-see. The cobalt price in the international market has fallen, causing the domestic market to follow suit. The high supply and low demand have caused the cobalt price to rise and the risk of decline has increased. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In the market outlook, the international cobalt price fell, causing the domestic cobalt price to follow the trend. However, due to the lack of major changes in the supply and demand of the cobalt market, the overall supply of cobalt was oversupplied, the cobalt price was difficult to maintain, and the domestic cobalt price still had a downside risk. It is expected that the cobalt price in the market will fluctuate and stabilize. Cobalt prices have stabilized after falling slightly.

Price trend

On September 10, the metal zinc market in the domestic market fell. The average price of metal zinc in the domestic spot market was 21,783.75 yuan/ton, down by 0.04% from the previous trading day; the average ex-factory price was 22,318.57 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. The price rose by 0.03%.

On September 9th, the zinc (market) commodity index was 124.48, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 20.09% from the highest point of 155.77 points (2017-10-09) in the cycle, which was 72.22 points higher than the lowest point of 72.28 on November 22, 2015. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 10, the price of zinc rose, and the recent zinc price fluctuated. On September 10, domestic zinc prices were mixed, and the price was generally stable. The overall demand of the zinc market has not changed significantly, the market performance is struggling, and the zinc warehouse inventory is at a low level, but the inventory of the Shanghai futures market has increased recently. On September 10, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market was 1,889 tons, and the inventory increased by 176 tons. The market activity of zinc ingots was poor, and the overall transaction volume was low.

Market outlook: After the market outlook, market demand has not improved significantly, and zinc prices have not been able to rise. However, the inventory of futures zinc ingots is at a low level, the market supply has not increased significantly, and the zinc price will not produce a large decline. The zinc price growth in the market is weak, but the supply is limited, and the price is difficult to fall sharply. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will fluctuate.

On Monday, Bahrain and Oman crude oil ministers said that China’s demand for oil has slowed due to the tight international trade situation and has had an impact on oil prices.

Middle East Oil Minister worried that Bahraini crude oil minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said in an interview with CNBC that there are risks in current oil demand:

“Do demand continue to be as strong as before? Obviously, if trade issues continue, it will affect demand in a negative way.”

Oman crude oil minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al Rumhy also mentioned that the current tight trade situation has led to a decline in China’s demand for oil, which has not received sufficient attention from the market. Now, they should not only pay attention to the supply side, but what happens when Iran stops supplying? At the same time, it is also concerned about the demand side, that is, China will reduce the consumption of oil, and what impact will it have?

He added that many people agree with him that oil demand will be affected by trade frictions:

“I think if trade divergence increases, the reduction in demand will not be conducive to oil prices.”

However, Reuters quoted Carsten Fritsch, senior commodities analyst at Commerzbank, as saying that although trade tensions may slow Asian oil demand, a slowdown in demand will easily offset the decline in Iranian crude oil supply.

And some analysts believe that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue to adjust the supply of crude oil to ensure the balance of supply and demand in the global oil market.

It is worth noting that oil prices have remained stable over the past two years, with current oil prices ranging from $70 to $80 per barrel, thanks in large part to the production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

China’s demand for oil slows down In January this year, data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that China’s average daily crude oil imports in 2017 were 8.4 million barrels per day, surpassing the US’s 7.9 million barrels per day. Become the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Among them, 56% of China’s crude oil imports come from OPEC countries.

According to the 2017 annual report of the Central Bank of Oman, China has been the largest exporter of crude oil in Oman for 10 consecutive years, and its export volume has more than doubled in 10 years.

However, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in August showed that China’s crude oil import growth rate was 3.68% in July this year, and 11.81% in the same period of last year. From January to July this year, China imported 261 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Compared with last year’s increase of 13.6%, the growth rate of China’s crude oil imports has dropped sharply in terms of single or cumulative months.

The International Energy Research Institute had previously predicted that by 2024, India would replace China as the world’s largest demander of crude oil.

Renewable energy is becoming the core of energy transformation OPEC once wrote in the “2040 Global Oil Outlook Report” that China’s energy demand is expected to be lower than previously expected because the Chinese government is taking active measures to accelerate renewable Energy transformation.

At present, China has launched a campaign to close several existing coal mines and restrict the construction of new coal mines. Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the province requires that by the end of 2020, the number of coal mines in the province will be greatly reduced, the mine structure will be significantly optimized, and the capacity of large and medium-sized mines will account for more than 60%. In this regard, Heilongjiang Jixi, Hegang, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe four coal mines promised to close more than 100 coal mines by the end of this year.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” was released, and it is promised that by 2030, China’s total energy consumption will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy accounts for The proportion of primary energy consumption is about 20%, and the proportion of natural gas is about 15%. The demand for new energy is mainly met by clean energy.