Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is stable. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, rising by 1.74% annually, and falling by 19.21% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market has been in a standstill. Earlier this week, the market started at a low level, factories took the opportunity to boost the market, strictly control the price of shipments, traders passively followed up the increase in quotations, low-price supply decreased, spot market just needed small orders to deliver high-end. Later, due to the reboot device loading, the market supply gradually increased, and the downstream market is still weak, replenishing warehouses on demand is the main, high prices conflict, once again push up difficulties, supply and demand negotiations stalemate. Up to now, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week’s low end. The domestic BDO market started at 52% this week, with a weekly output of about 21647 tons.

In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, stopped for safety investigation on July 19 due to the explosion of Yima, and tentatively planned to restart at the end of August; 25,000 tons/year plant in Tianhua, Sichuan, and 60,000 tons/year plant in Tianhua, Sichuan, will replace catalysts in turn from August 12, with an estimated 10 days; and 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the first phase. Normal operation, other devices have not yet restarted; Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days. The 100,000-ton/year plant in Bidiou, Shaanxi, was replaced on August 9 and restarted on August 13.

On the market side, as of Friday (8.16), the BDO market in East China has been running steadily. At present, although there are factory maintenance, but the market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, the actual single talk is cold, the factory price mentality, the center of gravity is stable. The BDO market in South China is deadlocked. The market is full of goods, the digestion of downstream contracts is slow, and the negotiation of spot orders is weak. Under the supply-demand game, the supplier’s price-keeping mentality supports the temporary stability of the market focus.

Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, this week the domestic calcium carbide market overall downward trend is dominant, production enterprises shipped actively, some enterprises inventory pressure, in order to speed up the delivery rate, various enterprises trade prices issued different preferential policies, so the market continues to have low-price supply. Transport continues to bear pressure, road security has been strengthened, carbide logistics transport cautious, fruit and vegetable transport increased resulting in vehicle tension. The downstream procurement is affected by weather and security inspection, and the regional arrival of goods is uneven. The Shandong area is affected by typhoon, road transportation is hindered, and downstream PVC enterprises start construction this week, the load has been reduced. At present, with the improvement of the weather, construction started gradually, but the pressure of road transportation continued.

Methanol: The market of methanol has risen this week. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is from 1700 to 1800 yuan/ton. The shipment situation of manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is smooth this week. Most manufacturers stop selling. Traders maintain a positive attitude towards the recent market. The mainstream price of Guanzhong area this week is from 1950 yuan/ton to 2000 yuan/ton. Because many local manufacturers are still not repairing, the remaining manufacturers are still holding up prices. Driven by the market in Inner Mongolia in the first half of this week, the Guanzhong market improved, but in the second half of this week, the market began to decline as the futures fell and the manufacturers for repairing recovered. Traders have different views on the market next week.

On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Xingxing, Nantong, stopped on July 10 for overhaul and planned to restart this weekend; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9 for about a month; Kanghui Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operated on two lines, with a load of about 60%; Xingsheng, Wuxi, with a load of about 60%. PTMEG: Start-up load of Jiaxing Xiaoxing is about 60%; start-up load of other devices is about 7-8%.

3. Future Market Forecast

This week, there are more overhaul factories, which boosts the confidence of the manufacturers and makes the profit intention weak. However, the PBT downstream of the main power plant has a device to stop, the start-up load has dropped again, the demand is difficult to increase; the spot market also has no backup atmosphere, just need a small single replenishment warehouse, the focus of the real single negotiation is in the middle. The replacement catalyst of Shaanxi Chemical Company has been restarted, and Tianhua will drive next week. The market start-up rate will increase accordingly, and the imbalance between supply and demand will appear. Business agency BDO analysts expect the domestic BDO market to continue its weak steady state next week, focusing specifically on changes in market supply and demand.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the ex-factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex-factory quotation in Shandong fell from 7383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7316.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.90%, 21.91% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 53.80 on August 16.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

At present, the domestic octanol plant start-up rate is still acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng 80,000 tons/year octanol plant start-up normal, this week’s offer is firm; Jiangsu Huachang chemical octanol plant annual capacity 80,000 tons, no maintenance plan.

This week, the quotation of Shandong main octanol producers is temporarily stable: Hualu Hengsheng Octanol is 7450 yuan/ton this weekend, and the quotation is temporarily stable; Jianlan Chemical Octanol is 7400 yuan/ton this weekend, and the quotation is temporarily stable. Livayioctanol was quoted at 7,100 yuan per ton this weekend, down 200 yuan per ton compared with the beginning of the week.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: Propylene market rose this week. The quotation rose from 7607.69 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7740.77 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.75%, down 18.52% from the same period last year. Although the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, it has fallen considerably year-on-year, which is affected by supply and demand, and has a negative impact on octanol price.

Downstream market: DOP ex-factory prices fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.91%, 22.63% compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers’enthusiasm for octanol purchasing declined, the demand for octanol was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on the octanol market. Future traders are more likely to watch the trend of DOP.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the overall trend of octanol Shandong market declined or shocked. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Although the price of propylene in the upstream has risen this week, the increase is not large and the cost support is insufficient. At the same time, the downstream market has also declined. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the products are declining under the contradiction between supply and demand. Octanol analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the octanol market shocks down, a small decline.

I. Acrylic acid price trend:

Acrylic acid market has risen this week, according to a large list of business associations. The average acrylic acid price as of August 16 was 7833.33 yuan/ton, up 1.73% from the beginning of the week and 2.17% from August 1.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Acrylic acid market prices rose this week. Manufacturers are more cautious, the supply of goods is generally sold, the overall market wait-and-see atmosphere is heavy. As of Friday, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been stable for a short time, with 7,400 yuan per ton of propionic acid. The specific transaction price is on the spot. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Company has remained stable, with the main supply contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 8,000 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: The market price of propylene in Shandong upstream rose this week. Prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declining continuously from 5 to 8 days, totaling 450-500 yuan/ton, rising from 14 days to 14 days, and stabilizing from 15 days. Currently, the market turnover is about 7650-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is stable, and the purchase of acrylic acid is the main demand.

3. Future market forecast:

Acrylic acid analysts of business associations believe that the rising price of propylene in the upstream has a certain positive support for acrylic acid, but the main factor restricting the market price to continue to rise is the demand side. More attention should be paid to the transaction situation in the mainstream market. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable next week.

Domestic price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene has remained stable since August. The domestic price has maintained 7,000 yuan/ton, but the external price has remained low. Since August, the closing price of PX Asia has fallen by about 50 dollars/ton. The domestic PX market is highly dependent on the outside world. The lower external price is the same for the domestic market. Italian air influence.

International price trends:

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The domestic PX start-up rate has maintained more than 70%, the Yangtze Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily, the Fuhaichuang Unit has started a line, the Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit has been running steadily, the Yangtze Petrochemical PX Unit has been running normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit has been running steadily, the Qingdao Lidong Unit has been operating at full load, and Qi The unit runs steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant starts about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Plant runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and domestic market price changes little. However, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, the price of PX outer disk keeps falling. The closing price in Asia is 771-773 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 790-792 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, a 700,000-ton PX unit in Saudi Arabia and Amy is in parking and overhaul. There are still several PX units in overhaul in Asia. Overall, Asia is in the process of overhaul. The start-up rate of paraxylene plant is about 70%, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. However, affected by crude oil prices, domestic purchasing intention is weakening, business offers are loose, more than 50% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is low in the domestic market.

Recently, the international crude oil price closed lower. As of 8 th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 52.54 U.S. dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was 57.38 U.S. dollars per barrel, crude oil closing price declined, which lost some cost support for downstream petrochemical products, and PX external price was affected lower.

Downstream PTA market prices declined. As of September 9, East China PTA market talks were around 5200-5300 yuan self-lifting. In August, PTA plant restart and maintenance coexisted. Fuhua Chemical Trade 4.6 million tons and Jiaxing Petrochemical 1.5 million tons were restarted. Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000 tons and Jialong Petrochemical 600,000 tons were stopped and repaired successively. Downstream polyester cash flow improved. The profit has been restored, some parking plants have been restarted, and the start-up load has been increased to 84%. There is a short-term replenishment action. However, textile terminal orders are still cold, just need to be prudently purchased. The comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 62%. The production and marketing of polyester is low. Recently, the downstream polyester industry has started to increase slightly, which has brought some favorable support to the domestic PX market. The price trend of domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have been volatile in the near future, but the downstream PTA market prices have slowed down, but the domestic and international PX supply has been normal in the near future. The downstream PTA market has started to maintain a high start-up rate, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 2.45% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remains stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, is in the downstream demand off-season, ammonium nitrate factory shipment market is general, downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, domestic ammonium nitrate factory start-up is limited. Domestic prices remain low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 1950-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend slightly declined, the market price at the end of the week was 1693.33 yuan/ton, this week’s price decline was 1.36%, the domestic nitric acid market price fell, the mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province quoted 1680 yuan/ton, the mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province quoted 1700 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers quoted 1700 yuan/ton, nitric acid walking goods. Generally speaking, the lower price of upstream nitric acid market has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market price; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3333.33 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, which is affected by the increase of upstream cost. In addition, the inventory pressure of most producers has eased slightly compared with the previous period. The supply performance of most manufacturers is still acceptable, the quotation of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, and the quotation in the northwest region is in the range of 2650-2800 yuan/ton. Maintaining a high level of liquid ammonia market will bring certain success to the downstream ammonium nitrate market. The impact of this support. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate market remains low. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high. The market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market is general, downstream civilian explosion industry parks more, coupled with the upstream raw material market nitric acid price slightly declined, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices slightly lower, coupled with poor demand downstream, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol in domestic market was 2076 yuan/ton, which was 2136 yuan/ton at the weekend. It rose by 2.89% in the week. The price of methanol fell by 0.84% annually and 29.94% year-on-year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continued to rise this week, with local markets in northwest, Shandong and North China rising by more than 100 yuan/ton, while ports showed a slightly weaker trend, with the weekly increase limited to 50 yuan/ton. As of Wednesday, the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 11599,000 tons, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing were increased this week. The Zhongan Unit with an annual output of 700,000 tons of methanol to olefins was successfully released at 9:58 a.m. on August 8.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market went up narrowly. Due to the increase of methanol market, production cost and some enterprises’offer, while the downstream market is still in low demand, formaldehyde enterprises are facing difficulties in shipment, increasing inventory pressure, and the actual unit transaction price is still at a low level.

Acetic acid: This week, the domestic acetic acid market is rising significantly. After a downward trend in the early stage, traders actively sell their stocks at a profit margin, pushing down the acetic acid market. During the weekend, there were parking rumors of mainstream enterprises in East China, and 800,000 tons of acetic acid plant in Soap, Jiangsu Province was stopped unexpectedly. The spot supply of acetic acid in the market was reduced, and the domestic acetic acid social inventory was low after the previous continuous rise in the market. The favorable factors overlapped. All parties in the market looked hollow and the traders and downstream gradually stocked up. Acquisition and purchase, acetic acid market price tightening, to promote market transactions continue to rise. On Wednesday evening, Shaanxi extended acetic acid plant temporarily stopped due to air separation, and supply in Northwest China plummeted, exacerbating the overall bullish mood in China.

Dimethyl ether: This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market prices rose embarrassingly and the overall trading situation was weak. Due to the poor delivery last week, prices have been falling continuously, and are expected to fall below 2,900 yuan/ton. Henan’s leading enterprises have implemented a bottom-keeping policy from 4 to 6 to protect market prices from the side. The settlement price was announced in the afternoon of June 6 at 2,950 yuan/ton. Since the price was low, Xinlian has raised the price by 20 yuan/ton since July 7 to guide the market price from the news and avoid further decline. After that, the peripheral enterprises rose appropriately and the downward trend of prices was postponed. From the transaction point of view, just in need of support is limited, domestic enterprises are not performing well, some enterprises continue to increase sales pressure, and the price of raw material methanol continues to rise slightly in the near future, resulting in increased production costs of raw material enterprises.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, due to the continued decline in methanol prices, most of them fell to the cost line, and trade and terminal hoarding were positive. New methanol-to-olefin units have been put into operation one after another, and the MTO load of Phase II of Chengzhi in Nanjing is not high; MTO in Shandong Luxi is expected to be commissioned in mid-August; Baofeng in Ningxia is scheduled to start production in September; methanol from Zhongan joint raw material needs to be purchased. Due to the impact of environmental protection and production reduction, the main production enterprises in Datong, Shanxi, will stop, or in the latter part will have an impact on other coal-based methanol enterprises. On the negative side, the domestic methanol industry started to maintain a high level as a whole. In August, the estimated import volume was over 900,000 tons, and the market supply was abundant. New domestic methanol plants are under construction in an orderly manner, of which 700,000 tons are planned to be put into operation in Yankuang Yulin in October; Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, is expected to be put into operation in September; Yingde, Jingmen, can produce products in mid-August. Influenced by environmental protection supervision, formaldehyde and sheet metal parking in Linyi, Shandong Province almost all, recovery time is uncertain. Pre-sale in the early period of Northwest China is good, methanol still has the driving force to push up. It is expected that the price of the main production area will still rise by 50-100 yuan/ton next week. The increase of ex-factory price and freight will be transferred to the downstream consumer market. Local terminals are conflicting with the rising raw material prices, and purchasing may be reduced next week. At present, port arrivals are concentrated, cargo is abundant, and the US dollar hangs in line. The power of methanol to soar is limited. Methanol analysts from S Business Association predict that the domestic methanol market will be more volatile next week.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic liquid caprolactam market has been steadily declining since August. The average price of liquid caprolactam in China was 12983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of January (1), and 12066.67 yuan/ton on the 9th day, a drop of 7.06%, which was 27.44% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Since August, the caprolactam liquid market has been steadily declining. At present, the focus of the East China caprolactam liquid supply transaction is 12 200-12 300 yuan/ton acceptance delivery. The upstream product cyclohexanone market is weak, the cost support is weakened; the downstream slice Market is light, the polymerization plant is losing some money, the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, the caprolactam is dragged down by demand, and the price is lower. At present, more than 70% of caprolactam plants have been started, and the spot market supply has improved. As of August 09, the price of caprolactam liquids in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 11600 yuan/ton, cash was discharged from the factory, and the first and second phases of caprolactam liquids were running normally; the actual transaction was negotiable; the quotation of caprolactam liquids in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12300 yuan/ton, the contract was the main one, 140,000 tons of caprolactam liquids normally, and the price of caprolactam liquids in Tianchen, Fujia 00 yuan/ton, normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: The upstream product cyclohexanone market is weak, the demand of chemical fiber market is general, the solvent just needs to be purchased, and the market turnover is flat. As of August 8, the mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market was delivered in cash from 8100 to 8200, the mainstream offer in East China market was delivered in cash from 8300 to 8400, and the mainstream offer in South China market was delivered in cash from 8700 to 8800.

The downstream PA6 slice Market is stable, slightly declining, the aggregation plant is losing some money, the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, and the spot supply is sufficient, the downstream demand follow-up is relatively negative, maintaining just needed procurement. Domestic businessmen lack confidence in the future market, mostly flexible single-handed, wait-and-see mood dominates, the situation is more difficult.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business associations have lactam analysts believe that: at present, there is no good support on the cost side, downstream demand follow-up weak, weak trading, there is still some room for future downturn.

Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market at the beginning of the month was 12 300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of aggregated MDI was 13 500 yuan/ton. The price of aggregated MDI rose by 9.76% in the month, which was 34.41% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In July, domestic aggregate MDI market prices fell narrowly in the first half of the month and rose narrowly in the second half of the month. Ring price rises 600-1000 yuan/ton from the end of June. Currently, the market price is around 13300-13400 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13500-13600 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. In mid-month, due to the “Oba” device incident, market prices gradually showed an upward trend. At the beginning of July, due to the lack of promotion of listing prices, together with the environmental protection maintenance of foaming agents, the overall market atmosphere was weak and light. Although the supplier manufacturers controlled the goods in limited quantities, the market demand was still difficult to keep up with the pace, the mindset of the holders varied, and there was no lack of positive low-price shipment phenomenon. In mid-January, there was a sudden rumor in the market that the European BASF plant needed to transfer goods from the Chinese market due to the problem of raw material supply and low-load operation. The already limited supply became more tense. Businessmen changed their mindset and market prices began to stop falling. Due to the strict control of the manufacturer’s goods, the circulation of the source of goods at the trade end is not large, and the market quotation of the holder is slightly upward. Then until the end of the month, market prices rose narrowly every day. In addition, at the end of the month, Wanhua factory announced an increase in the listing price in August, and the settlement price in August was unexpectedly announced. The firm’s determination to boost the market is obvious. In addition, other factories also cooperate tacitly. Market prices continue to rise, and real unit transaction prices also gradually move up.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This month, the price of pure benzene rebounded rapidly and fell, mainly affected by the trend of the external market. As a result, the price of external market in the first 4-5 months was much higher than that in China, the import of pure benzene in June-July dropped sharply; some domestic reforming and disproportionation units were reduced due to cost reasons, and some large factories were converted to small-order supplementary contracts. Affected by the above reasons, domestic pure benzene supply was reduced, and port stock was reduced from 210,000 tons at the end of June to 155,000 tons at the end of July.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: Wanhua factory announced an increase in the listing price in August at the end of the month, and the settlement price in August was also unexpectedly announced. The firm’s determination to boost the market is obvious, and other factories also cooperate tacitly. Market prices continue to rise, and real unit transaction prices also gradually move up. Wanhua Chemicals announced its acquisition of Cornell MDI project in Fujian at the end of this month, which greatly encouraged the mindset of the industry. Analysts from business associations aggregate MDI predict that there is still room for market prices to go up next month and watch for the follow-up of demand.

Price Trend

In July, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market suffered from twists and turns, and the overall decline was dominant. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3816.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3716.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.62% in the month, 13.58% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In July, the domestic liquefied gas market declined as a whole. Up to July 31, the liquefied gas of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company was stopped and no offer was made. The ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Branch is 3200 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Branch is 3450 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company is 3310 yuan/ton, that of Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group is 3500 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical Branch is 3450 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price is 3450 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic market of dimethyl ether rose steadily in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether Market was 3095 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price was 3210 yuan/ton. The increase rate was 3.72% in the month, and the price fell by 30.29% compared with the same period last year. In July, the propane Market tumbled. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 3700 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3602.5 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 2.64% in the month, and increased by 24.88% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane.

In July, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shocks declined, with narrow adjustment being the main factor. In early July, CP prices fell, bearish market mentality, prices continued to fall. Then there was a boost, mainly due to the rise in international crude oil, which boosted liquefied petroleum gas. However, the current market demand is in the off-season, the terminal consumption rate is declining, the market performance is poor, the push-up is weak, and the price information speed is falling. Until the last week, as prices continued to fall, the downstream market entered the market at a low price, the upstream inventory was released, coupled with the rise in international crude oil, the price tentative rose slightly. However, the terminal has not been significantly improved, the downstream continuous replenishment capacity is insufficient, rising first and then falling at the end of the month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts in business associations believe that the current market demand is still in the off-season, terminal consumption is declining, and the market performance is not good. In August, CPs showed a slight decline, negative market mentality, and the liquefied gas market lacked obvious advantages. It is expected that there will be little room for price increase in August, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, zinc prices fluctuated and fell in July, making it difficult for zinc prices to show an upward trend. As of July 31, the price of zinc was 19696.67 yuan/ton, down 1.97% from 20276.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.15% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic Zinc Production

In 2019, the production of zinc increased month by month, and the domestic zinc production increased significantly. The supply of zinc in China was gradually turned from insufficient supply to excess supply. As of June 2019, zinc production has increased by 2.3% year-on-year. The supply of zinc is excessive, and the price of zinc in the future is not optimistic.

High zinc processing cost

According to statistics, on July 31, the processing cost of domestic refined zinc was between 6,000-6,600 yuan/ton. In 2019, the processing cost of zinc was significantly higher. It stimulated zinc smelting enterprises to increase start-up, increased supply of zinc production may increase, and the risk of excess supply in the future will increase.

Downstream demand

A few days ago, Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released the Inventory Report of 100 Cities in China in the first half of 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). By the end of June, the total inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored was 45.203 million square meters, an annular increase of 0.4%, an increase of 6.0% over the previous year. Baicheng’s inventory-to-sales ratio, i.e. the inventory depletion cycle, was 9.8 months, which was the same as that in May. Although real estate investment increased in the first half of the year, the total inventory of commercial housing remained high, the ring ratio increased year on year, and the future real estate market is not optimistic. In the third quarter, real estate demand for zinc is expected to decline, and zinc market in the future is negative.

In the automotive sector, the global automotive market is weak and sales have fallen sharply. Although there are various policies to stimulate automotive consumption, the effect is not obvious. Future automotive consumption is bearish, and the demand for zinc in the automotive industry has declined significantly.

As for household appliances, air-conditioning output increased significantly in the first five months of this year, but since the second quarter, rainwater in the whole country has been more than in previous years, hot weather has been pushed back, and air-conditioning sales have fallen short of expectations. Since April, domestic air-conditioning inventory has been at a high level, which limits the later production scheduling space. It is expected that the seasonal weakening of air conditioning production will be very significant after July. The output of refrigerators and washing machines is mainly stable and the increment is limited. The demand for zinc in the future household appliances market is bound to drop dramatically, affecting the rebound in zinc prices.

Import and export data

According to the data, from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, the annual import quota of galvanized coils made in China by the EU was 527 164 tons. However, within a few days of July 1, the annual quota was exhausted. According to market sources, the number of hot-dip galvanized steel coils imported by European buyers from China for automobiles has exceeded the annual quota by about 30%. According to the relevant provisions of EU import safeguard measures, the subsequent import of over-quota galvanized rolls will have to pay 25% tariff. Affected by tariffs, the enthusiasm of over-quota European international purchasing of Chinese galvanized coils declined, the demand for galvanized coils declined in the future, and the demand for galvanized coils was negative in the future.

International policies and regulations

On June 28, 2019, Ukraine’s Interdepartmental International Trade Commission issued a bulletin, deciding to impose anti-dumping duties of 22.78% and 47.57% on galvanized sheets imported from China and Russia respectively for a period of five years. The levy of anti-dumping duty has a negative impact on the export of domestic galvanized sheets, and zinc market has a negative impact.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Agencies, believes that in China, zinc production is increasing month by month, zinc market is gradually changing from short supply to over demand, and zinc concentrate processing fees remain high, which further stimulates the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises and increases the situation of excess supply in zinc market. In terms of downstream demand, the trend of real estate in the third quarter looks at. In terms of household appliances, the summer will go, and the household appliances will change from peak season to off season. In the future, the demand of household appliances for zinc will decline, and the overall demand for zinc is not optimistic. Internationally, EU countries purchased large quantities of galvanized coils in July, which is good for the zinc market, but affected by tariffs, the overall future zinc market is bad; Ukraine imposed tariffs on galvanized sheets produced in China, affecting the export of galvanized sheets, affecting the demand of the zinc market. In summary, the supply of zinc in the future city is growing steadily, the demand of zinc is not good, and the shortfall is obvious. The supply and demand of zinc in China is gradually changing from short supply to over demand. Zinc prices in the future are not motivated enough, the pressure of decline is still there. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future, and the zinc market has not yet shown an upward trend.