Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the domestic PC market showed an upward trend in mid-September, with prices rising. As of September 20, domestic producers and TRADERS’offer prices for Bayer 2805 averaged about 19366.67 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the first week of September.

II. Cause Analysis

At the beginning of September, China began to impose anti-dumping duties on Phenol in the United States. Influenced by the strong support of raw material cost, Bisphenol A in upstream PC entered the upstream channel, the focus of domestic spot quotation moved upward, and the willingness of merchants to bid appeared. By mid-September, production cost support was further strengthened, the sentiment of BPA speculation remained unchanged, and the market focus of BPA continued to move upwards. Downstream follow-up is a few more cautious, factories buy and sell mainly to digest the rally. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol A spot price will still be offered in the near future, which will support the domestic PC cost. At present, the domestic PC market is cautious in high-level trading due to the severe impact of international crude oil shocks. The enthusiasm of downstream factories for stock-up has improved slightly during the “double-festival” period, but downstream operators’operation is gradually limited and their mentality is in a cautious wait-and-see state. As of Friday, the domestic PC spot offer showed a high consolidation status.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that in mid-September domestic PC upstream bisphenol A was boosted by rising raw materials and strong growth, PC cost-side support is larger. The downstream demand affected by the heat of two-section reserve stock has improved, and the purchase of reserve stock is prudent. Domestic PC prices are in high order. From the market performance, it is speculated that the price will still be in the near future. It is suggested that close attention should be paid to the domestic supply situation.

Commodity Index: On September 19, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 108.11, which was the same as yesterday. It was 0.83% lower than the peak of 109.01 points in the cycle (2019-08-28), and 7.15% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the mainstream manufacturers monitored by business associations, after the price of polyaluminium chloride rose significantly in the second half of August, the price of polyaluminium chloride remained relatively stable from the first half of September to the middle of September. On September 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the mainstream quotation was 2000 yuan/ton. The market was stable. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) with tax, 350-500 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) with tax, and 100-200 yuan/ton for solid in August. The price range was maintained in the first half of this month, with the liquid rising by 50 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In recent years, the price of hydrochloric acid in upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride has risen sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 140 yuan/ton on the 20th day, with an increase of about 13.5%. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, the polyaluminium chloride manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province is still in the shutdown period. It relies on stock delivery to give priority to the consumption of old downstream customers. The supply of new customers is affected. Because the shutdown has lasted for more than a month, the inventory of the manufacturer is more tight than the previous period.

Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “Notice of shutdown” recently. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the municipal attack and fortification office requests all enterprises in-depth control to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance according to key problems. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days, and asked to restart production from the 15th. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers were not notified of the start of construction. Strict environmental protection inspections were under way. According to the manufacturers, the current shortage of goods was aggravated after the National Day of the Eleventh National Day.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that due to the impact of environmental shutdown, the inventory of factories in Gongyi area of Henan Province, one of the main production areas, has become tense. Although inventory priority is given to old customers, it is difficult for new customers to seek goods. Prices for new customers have increased significantly in the early period, but in the later period, with the increase of supply tension, the price of old customers has been excluded. Possibility of lattice up-regulation.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

The average price of nitric acid in eastern China was 2466 yuan/ton on September 24, up 43.69% from 1716 yuan/ton in eastern China last week, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Market analysis

Products: Concentrated nitric acid prices continued to rise substantially on September 24. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical quoted 2600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Anhui Jinhe quoted 2500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Shandong Helitai quoted 2300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2460 yuan/ton, 410 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17) quotation; Wenshui County synthetic chemical quotation 2350 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton higher than the 23-day quotation. With the National Day approaching, there are more parking overhauls for manufacturers, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid market, difficulty in picking up goods, better demand for festivals, positive market stocks, and multiple positive factors to promote the price of concentrated nitric acid soaring.

Industry chain: the upstream raw material of nitric acid, liquid ammonia, according to the monitoring of business associations, last week (9.16-20) the domestic market of liquid ammonia was stable and small. Some enterprises in Shandong had a slight increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the local ammonia quantity is tight, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship, but the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable, and the mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2900-3100. Yuan / ton. The market price of aniline in Shandong was 7 300-7 400 yuan/ton last week (9.16-20), while that in Nanjing was 7 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.63% over the previous week, according to the monitoring of commercial associations.

3. Future Market Forecast

Affected by environmental protection inspection and enterprise pre-holiday maintenance, limited production or parking of enterprises, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid Market and increased demand before the festival. Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market will be mainly strong operation.

Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 1823.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.73%, 11.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.19 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1780 yuan / ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 40 yuan / ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation in Shandong is about to start, agricultural demand will gradually rise, and some manufacturers will operate at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies and state-owned enterprise safety, so there are too many shutdowns, and urea demand also falls considerably, which affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products slightly increased: natural gas prices quoted 2900.00 yuan / ton this week temporarily stabilized; liquid ammonia prices rose slightly this week, from 333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.04%, down 7.77% year-on-year. Urea cost support is general. Melamine prices have risen slightly downstream this week and purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late September.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China
According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite has been running steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite is general. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in 1800 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic pyrosulfite market as a whole has a relatively sufficient stock. The continuous reduction of raw material costs has led to prudent purchasing and selling of the main body of trade in the industrial chain. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, while new orders are limited. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry Chain: Soda price in the upstream is steadily moving forward this week. Sulfur price is down 2.79% again. Processing cost is still weak. Domestic pyrosulfite market price is warming up and pressured.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that raw material costs continue to be weak adjustment, downstream procurement cautious, expected next week the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to operate at the bottom.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong Province has been stable this week. The price is 223.33 yuan/ton, down 52.73% from the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulphuric acid market consolidated at a low level, with the sulphuric acid commodity index of 34.76 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the price of the main sulphuric acid producers in Shandong Province has been stable for a while, with less inventory and less downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 180 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early week; Zouping Tianlu is 40 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining continuously with weak cost support; the downstream monoammonium market has a poor trading atmosphere, light turnover, unsatisfactory new orders, relatively stable diammonium market, strong quotation, sulfuric acid enterprises with multiple early orders, short-term inadequate start-up, and slightly tight supply. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. The price of sulphur in the upstream has gone down all the way, and the purchasing in the downstream is general. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the products have gone down. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Ethylene oxide prices continued to stabilize this week, with factory prices of 8,000 yuan/ton in East China, 8,200 yuan/ton in South China and North China, 8,300 yuan/ton in Central China and Northeast China, 8,000 yuan/ton in Silbang Petrochemical Company, Jiangsu Province, and 8,200 yuan/ton in Lianhong Group.

The upstream ethylene oscillation is low, the profit of ethylene oxide is still acceptable, the downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer price is consolidated, the trading is general, the market atmosphere is strong, the spot price of ethylene glycol oscillation is up, the market lifting effect of ethylene oxide is slightly enhanced, there is no new progress in the device, and the supply and demand game is in the stage of reshuffling. The market stability factor occupies the mainstream position.

Short-term stability consolidation is the main task, not excluding the possibility of small shocks, we need to pay close attention to the latest factory news.

Price Trend

The domestic toluene market has been in good shape this week, with a weekly increase of about 6%, due to the rise in crude oil upstream, the decline in port inventories and the improvement in market turnover, according to the business associations’big list data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream, the decline of port stocks and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6150-6200 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory dropped by about 7,000 tons to about 27,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices continued to rebound this week, with spot Brent up 5.81%, Brent futures up 4.82%, WTI futures up 2.31%, Dubai futures down 1.85%.

Downstream, TDI, this week’s price trend is stable, trading is not strong, short-term TDI is expected to remain weak and stable trend. Compared with last week, this week’s external price is stable, FOB ARA Toluene TDI is about $687 per ton, domestic PX price is stable, and short-term PX market price is expected to maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the progress of tariff increases in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuations in demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Taken together, it is expected that the toluene market will adjust its trend with minor shocks next week.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of nitric acid in eastern China this week was 1 600 yuan/ton, and the quotation was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s nitric acid quotation is stable, Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan / ton, the quotation is stable. Anhui Jinhe stopped production; Anhui Audley quoted 1580 yuan/ton. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and individual manufacturer parks. Nitric acid shipment is general.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, the offer is stable on September 6. Downstream products, aniline prices remained stable this week compared with last week. Mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton; domestic TDI market price trend slightly decreased this week, the average market price in eastern China at the beginning of the week is about 13000 yuan/ton, and the average market price in eastern China at the weekend is about 12800 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.54% in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

In summary, Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market may be dominated by stable operation of the weak.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6622.5 yuan/ton on September 02, and domestic PVC quoted 6655 yuan/ton on September 06. The overall price fluctuation ranges from 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.49%. The price of PVC rose slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product aspect: This week, the market price of PVC has been generally stable, rising slightly. Spot actual delivery atmosphere is general, businessmen wait and see cautiously, maintain just needed procurement, no hoarding intentions, increased sales pressure. With the continuous decline of social inventory of PVC and the influence of Daqing, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction, the market supply has been significantly tightened, the prices of merchants have steadily risen, and the ex-factory prices of some enterprises have risen slightly. The price of PVC is rising and falling, the trade tension between China and the United States is escalating, and there is no better support for it in the short term. The main contract of PVC will rebound if it continues to weaken. As of September 06, according to the data of business associations, the domestic mainstream price range of PVC is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, carbide ex-factory price temporarily stable, low inventory. According to the data of Business Association on September 6, the factory price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, Qinghai is about 2850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia is about 2900 yuan/ton, and Shizuishan is about 2800 yuan/ton. Ethylene material is relatively small, low-price transactions are the main, the overall transaction is not warm.

Industry: On September 6, the rubber and plastic index was 676 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.23% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.36% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the current demand for PVC terminals is just the main demand, spot delivery is flat, the price is generally stable, it is expected that the short-term consolidation of the PVC market is the main, supply and demand game dominates the price trend.