Price Trend

The domestic toluene market has been in good shape this week, with a weekly increase of about 6%, due to the rise in crude oil upstream, the decline in port inventories and the improvement in market turnover, according to the business associations’big list data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the rise of crude oil upstream, the decline of port stocks and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6150-6200 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory dropped by about 7,000 tons to about 27,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices continued to rebound this week, with spot Brent up 5.81%, Brent futures up 4.82%, WTI futures up 2.31%, Dubai futures down 1.85%.

Downstream, TDI, this week’s price trend is stable, trading is not strong, short-term TDI is expected to remain weak and stable trend. Compared with last week, this week’s external price is stable, FOB ARA Toluene TDI is about $687 per ton, domestic PX price is stable, and short-term PX market price is expected to maintain a stable trend.
3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the progress of tariff increases in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuations in demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Taken together, it is expected that the toluene market will adjust its trend with minor shocks next week.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of nitric acid in eastern China this week was 1 600 yuan/ton, and the quotation was stable for the time being.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s nitric acid quotation is stable, Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan / ton, the quotation is stable. Anhui Jinhe stopped production; Anhui Audley quoted 1580 yuan/ton. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and individual manufacturer parks. Nitric acid shipment is general.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, the offer is stable on September 6. Downstream products, aniline prices remained stable this week compared with last week. Mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton; domestic TDI market price trend slightly decreased this week, the average market price in eastern China at the beginning of the week is about 13000 yuan/ton, and the average market price in eastern China at the weekend is about 12800 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.54% in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

In summary, Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market may be dominated by stable operation of the weak.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6622.5 yuan/ton on September 02, and domestic PVC quoted 6655 yuan/ton on September 06. The overall price fluctuation ranges from 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.49%. The price of PVC rose slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product aspect: This week, the market price of PVC has been generally stable, rising slightly. Spot actual delivery atmosphere is general, businessmen wait and see cautiously, maintain just needed procurement, no hoarding intentions, increased sales pressure. With the continuous decline of social inventory of PVC and the influence of Daqing, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction, the market supply has been significantly tightened, the prices of merchants have steadily risen, and the ex-factory prices of some enterprises have risen slightly. The price of PVC is rising and falling, the trade tension between China and the United States is escalating, and there is no better support for it in the short term. The main contract of PVC will rebound if it continues to weaken. As of September 06, according to the data of business associations, the domestic mainstream price range of PVC is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: raw materials, carbide ex-factory price temporarily stable, low inventory. According to the data of Business Association on September 6, the factory price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, Qinghai is about 2850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia is about 2900 yuan/ton, and Shizuishan is about 2800 yuan/ton. Ethylene material is relatively small, low-price transactions are the main, the overall transaction is not warm.

Industry: On September 6, the rubber and plastic index was 676 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.23% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.36% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the current demand for PVC terminals is just the main demand, spot delivery is flat, the price is generally stable, it is expected that the short-term consolidation of the PVC market is the main, supply and demand game dominates the price trend.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate fell in August. On August 1, the average tax-bearing price of domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream outlets was 6550.00 yuan/ton. On August 30, the average tax-bearing price of domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream outlets was 6487.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.95%.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This month, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is cool, the actual volume is insufficient, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is negative, the downstream purchasing is just in need, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low-level purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium carbonate Market declines. According to the statistics of business associations: in August, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6450-6800 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the market of potassium carbonate declined slightly in August. After entering September, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine silver and ten ten” is approaching. Driven by various factors, the price of potassium carbonate may be warming up, mainly focusing on whether the demand end of the later period has improved. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business associations. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fluctuated and fell. In August, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide producers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling 150.00 yuan/ton, or 4.79%. Compared with last year, it fell 4.27% year-on-year. Overall, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell in August, with a larger decline. On August 31, the index of calcium carbide commodities was 75.11.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

In August, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell sharply.

The quotation of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Calcium Carbide fell from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation fell by 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Fugu County Oveganeng Calcium Carbide dropped from 3100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped by 300 yuan/ton; the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped from 3050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2850 yuan The price of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide dropped 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide rose from 2900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation increased by 50 yuan/ton.

At the end of August, the actual turnover price of calcium carbide in Northwest China ranged from 2700 to 2900 yuan/ton: the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi was between 2700 and 2800 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Ningxia was about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia was about 2800 yuan/ton.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Coke ex-factory quotation rose slightly in August, from 1803.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1816.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 13.34 yuan/ton, up 0.74%, down 26.60% compared with last year. The upstream raw material price is low and consolidated, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Downstream market: In August, the market of PVC slightly declined. The average price of PVC ex-factory quotation fell from 6742.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6622.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 120.00 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, a larger decline, 5.51% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

As a by-product of PVC by calcium carbide process, caustic soda market price was low in August. The average ex-factory price of caustic soda was 705.00 yuan/ton, which was 31.03% lower than that of last year. The low price of caustic soda consolidated this month, further reducing the demand for calcium carbide downstream.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Overall, the market of chlor-alkali industry shows a slight upward trend, and the slight upward trend of chlor-alkali market has limited impact on the demand of calcium carbide.

3. Future Market Forecast

In early September, the price of calcium carbide showed a volatile downward trend, with a small decline. Looking from the upstream, the low price of raw materials in August has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide, and compared with last year, the decline is larger; Caustic soda, the by-product of calcium carbide PVC, has been running at a low price, compared with last year, it has also fallen a lot, while the price of downstream PVC is on a downward trend, so downstream calcium carbide. Demand will weaken. At the same time, to celebrate the arrival of National Day, some manufacturers began to stop production. In the future, business analysts believe that the price of calcium carbide in early September will show a volatile downward trend, with a slight decline. The transaction price is expected to be between 2800 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of no more than 100 yuan/ton. Some calcium carbide manufacturers may adjust according to the local raw material purchase price.

Price Trend

The propane Market as a whole rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3650 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3692.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 1.16%, which was 31.06% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the propane Market in China was first restrained and then increased, and the market turnover atmosphere improved. As of August 30, the propane self-use of Dongming Petrochemical Company in Shandong Province stopped. Propane ex-factory price of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group Supply and Marketing Company is 3600 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3700 yuan/ton, Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Company is 3600 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3750 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is propane ex-factory price. The factory price is 3720 yuan/ton, and the factory price of propane of Binzhou Dayou Group is 3700 yuan/ton. Propane ex-factory price of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market fell this week, it rebounded slightly. Prices fell for two consecutive days at the beginning of the week, falling by about 50-100 yuan/ton. Inventories of factories accumulated to the highest level last weekend. Petrochemical enterprises also continuously lowered prices on non-price-adjusting days to stimulate downstream market entry. Other units mainly followed the decline and timely replenishment of downstream markets. Market shipments have increased significantly and manufacturers’inventory has eased. Since Wednesday, the price of international crude oil has been rising continuously, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream bullish mentality has been restored. The enthusiasm of entering the market is good, and the shipments of manufacturers are smooth.

At the beginning of the week, propane was steadily downward, with weak trend, no favorable market support, more on-demand replenishment in the downstream, low enthusiasm for entering the market, low overall market atmosphere, the accumulation of manufacturer inventory, profit-based delivery. Late in the week, international crude oil rose steadily, domestic liquefied petroleum gas spot followed the upward trend, coupled with the introduction of CP price in September, butane was flat compared with last month, propane was slightly lower than last month, the decline was less than expected, which boosted the market mentality. Under the downstream buy-up mentality, replenishment into the market, the market transaction atmosphere improved, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure eased, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory at present. On the demand side, the traditional peak season “gold, silver and ten” is coming, and the market demand is expected to improve, which will play a supporting role in the market.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 25 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector in the 33-week (8.19-8.23) rise-fall list of commodity prices in 2019, of which more than 5% increase is 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities are acetic acid (8.90%), crude benzene (7.83%) and aniline (5.17%). There are 30 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-7.50%), dichloromethane (-7.35%) and sulfur (-5.48%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that although CPs prices fell in September, the decline was less than expected, which supported the market to a certain extent. In addition, demand in September is expected to improve. There is no obvious pressure on manufacturers’inventories at present, and the mood of protecting the market is obvious. It is expected to continue to rise next week or continue.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to show a downward trend in August. The main reason for the downward trend was that there was no obvious positive trend in demand. On August 28, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 60,000 yuan/ton, which decreased by – 5.95% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 28 was 67,000 yuan/ton, which was down – 7.71% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

By observing the market changes, the overall market price of lithium carbonate continued to fall in early August. Battery-grade lithium carbonate was affected by the poor demand of power market, and the price declined obviously. In order to cope with the market changes, businesses have chosen to reduce prices. Lower reaches mostly have a small number of multiple purchases, and the willingness to stock up is not obvious. The demand for industrial grade lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the overall increment is not obvious. In addition, due to the impact of the downward price of battery grade lithium carbonate, manufacturers in order to quickly ship lithium carbonate have followed the downward price. In late August, the lithium carbonate market still showed no obvious signs of recovery, due to the downstream material factory’s own price pressures, procurement will is not high. In addition, the high inventory level of raw materials and finished products in lithium salt plants has led to low-cost shipments. In addition, due to the impact of refund, the demand is reduced, which also makes enterprises compete for price reduction.

Due to the weak market demand this month, some lithium salt manufacturers and lithium mica manufacturers have seen production reduction. However, in view of the overall supply and demand situation in the current market, the start-up rate of large factories is still at a high level, which has limited impact on the price of stable lithium carbonate. Increasing supply also leads to fierce price competition, and the price gap between industrial lithium carbonate and battery lithium carbonate is gradually narrowing. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 55,000 and 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 68,000 yuan/ton.

According to analysts of LiCO_3, the price of LiCO_3 is still declining under the pressure of supplier de-stocking, and the supply competition in LiCO_3 market is fierce, manufacturers are aiming at rapid delivery. It is expected that the price will still be low in the short run, and the market will be slightly weak in the future.

Price Trend

The domestic xylene market continued to rise slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.85%, due to the rise in crude oil upstream, according to business associations’data.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the upstream crude oil rise, xylene market rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6000-6050 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, this week’s turnover has shrunk slightly. Compared with last week, port inventory has dropped by nearly 7,000 tons, and is now about 45,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices jumped sharply from last week. Oil prices rebounded slightly this week, with spot Brent up 2.36%, Brent futures up 2.04%, WTI futures up 0.99%, Dubai futures up 3.58%.

Downstream, PX market, this week’s small decline in external prices, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, this week’s price slightly lower, PTA is expected to maintain a stable short-term volatility trend. On the OX market, this week’s external quotation fell, downstream phthalic anhydride, plasticizer market was weak, and short-term trend of o-phenyl is expected to be negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the progress of tariff increases in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuations in demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Taken together, the toluene market is expected to fluctuate slightly next Tuesday.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell this week. The quotation fell from 133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 123.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 10.00 yuan/ton, or 7.50%, up 1.36% from the same period last year. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market fell this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index of 32.46 on August 23.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the hydrochloric acid Market manufacturers’quotations fell and the overall market was consolidated at a low level. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 160 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is 30 yuan/ton; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 200 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 10 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

The price of liquid chlorine in the upstream market is stable, which supports hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still buy hydrochloric acid on demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak. By-product acid shocks the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is high. The quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. For the purpose of shipment, each manufacturer has the situation of inverted freight shipment. Overall, the difficulty of delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a major problem.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Business analysts believe that the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but the downstream demand for rare earth and fuel is still general, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts believe that the late hydrochloric acid market is still more vulnerable to consolidation.

Price Trend
The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, rising by 0.19% annually, and falling by 3.23% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Alcohol began to rise in some areas this week, only in Henan Province after the price of small factories fell. Northeast enterprise equipment gradually opened, Heilongjiang Nehe plant recently put in materials, although the supply side of enterprises has rebounded, but the enterprise inventory is not high, affected by the high level in some areas, the willingness of enterprises to pull up is obvious, the quotation of large factories has been pulled up, and the market transaction price has risen sharply; Henan small factory price has been pulled up earlier this week, but later small. After the factory pulled up, the shipment situation was blocked, and the price fell on Thursday. Shandong floated spring plant reduced production, and the supply side was good. The price of East China rose slightly, but at present, the construction situation of East China enterprises was not much. The downstream part digested the inventory of Northeast China, the ethyl acetate factory had not started to purchase, the raw material price remained high, and the market price was firm. Southern cassava alcohol enterprises are supported by good supply side and high price is sorted out; molasses alcohol is produced by only one enterprise, supported by good supply side, and the market transaction price has risen sharply; there is no spot of cassava alcohol in Guangdong, and there is a shortage of high-grade alcohol, and only the supply of Xintiande and Ante in Guangxi, Xintiande’s high-grade alcohol is mostly available. In Guangxi, Ante’s price is higher than the market. In Zhanjiang area, the supply side is less, the price remains stable. In anhydrous area, Jinyuan and Xintiande supply this week, and in the case of non-arrival of foreign goods, the price is stable.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1740 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand remained stable, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava entered the starch market more and dried chips exported less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price of East China 1900-1920 yuan/ton, and domestic East China purchased goods from Northeast China and sold them. Enterprises have more inventories and less start-up. On the downstream side, Ethyl acetate in East China was 5775 yuan/ton this week, up 1.36% from last week’s price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Enterprises in Northeast China are gradually starting construction. After accumulating their stocks, it is not excluded that it is possible to adjust the offer in order to drain the stocks. But downstream chemical industry hears of purchasing plans, two sections of liquor are also purchased. The fluctuation of prices in Northeast China needs to see the purchasing situation downstream. In the short run, the supply area in Henan Province is rebounding, which is small. In the short run, there are two enterprises in South China starting work at the end of the month because of the maintenance of the reorganization and operation in Henan. In the short run, there is a high price due to the favorable supply side. However, there is a possibility that the two enterprises will adjust after the installation is opened. In the absence of water, there are arrivals, and short-term market prices are expected to remain stable. Ethanol analysts at business associations predict that prices in the domestic ethanol market will remain strong next week or that there may be a slight adjustment in some areas.