Price Trend

In July, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market suffered from twists and turns, and the overall decline was dominant. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3816.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3716.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.62% in the month, 13.58% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In July, the domestic liquefied gas market declined as a whole. Up to July 31, the liquefied gas of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company was stopped and no offer was made. The ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Branch is 3200 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Branch is 3450 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company is 3310 yuan/ton, that of Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group is 3500 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical Branch is 3450 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price is 3450 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic market of dimethyl ether rose steadily in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether Market was 3095 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price was 3210 yuan/ton. The increase rate was 3.72% in the month, and the price fell by 30.29% compared with the same period last year. In July, the propane Market tumbled. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 3700 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3602.5 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 2.64% in the month, and increased by 24.88% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane.

In July, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shocks declined, with narrow adjustment being the main factor. In early July, CP prices fell, bearish market mentality, prices continued to fall. Then there was a boost, mainly due to the rise in international crude oil, which boosted liquefied petroleum gas. However, the current market demand is in the off-season, the terminal consumption rate is declining, the market performance is poor, the push-up is weak, and the price information speed is falling. Until the last week, as prices continued to fall, the downstream market entered the market at a low price, the upstream inventory was released, coupled with the rise in international crude oil, the price tentative rose slightly. However, the terminal has not been significantly improved, the downstream continuous replenishment capacity is insufficient, rising first and then falling at the end of the month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts in business associations believe that the current market demand is still in the off-season, terminal consumption is declining, and the market performance is not good. In August, CPs showed a slight decline, negative market mentality, and the liquefied gas market lacked obvious advantages. It is expected that there will be little room for price increase in August, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, zinc prices fluctuated and fell in July, making it difficult for zinc prices to show an upward trend. As of July 31, the price of zinc was 19696.67 yuan/ton, down 1.97% from 20276.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.15% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic Zinc Production

In 2019, the production of zinc increased month by month, and the domestic zinc production increased significantly. The supply of zinc in China was gradually turned from insufficient supply to excess supply. As of June 2019, zinc production has increased by 2.3% year-on-year. The supply of zinc is excessive, and the price of zinc in the future is not optimistic.

High zinc processing cost

According to statistics, on July 31, the processing cost of domestic refined zinc was between 6,000-6,600 yuan/ton. In 2019, the processing cost of zinc was significantly higher. It stimulated zinc smelting enterprises to increase start-up, increased supply of zinc production may increase, and the risk of excess supply in the future will increase.

Downstream demand

A few days ago, Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released the Inventory Report of 100 Cities in China in the first half of 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). By the end of June, the total inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored was 45.203 million square meters, an annular increase of 0.4%, an increase of 6.0% over the previous year. Baicheng’s inventory-to-sales ratio, i.e. the inventory depletion cycle, was 9.8 months, which was the same as that in May. Although real estate investment increased in the first half of the year, the total inventory of commercial housing remained high, the ring ratio increased year on year, and the future real estate market is not optimistic. In the third quarter, real estate demand for zinc is expected to decline, and zinc market in the future is negative.

In the automotive sector, the global automotive market is weak and sales have fallen sharply. Although there are various policies to stimulate automotive consumption, the effect is not obvious. Future automotive consumption is bearish, and the demand for zinc in the automotive industry has declined significantly.

As for household appliances, air-conditioning output increased significantly in the first five months of this year, but since the second quarter, rainwater in the whole country has been more than in previous years, hot weather has been pushed back, and air-conditioning sales have fallen short of expectations. Since April, domestic air-conditioning inventory has been at a high level, which limits the later production scheduling space. It is expected that the seasonal weakening of air conditioning production will be very significant after July. The output of refrigerators and washing machines is mainly stable and the increment is limited. The demand for zinc in the future household appliances market is bound to drop dramatically, affecting the rebound in zinc prices.

Import and export data

According to the data, from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, the annual import quota of galvanized coils made in China by the EU was 527 164 tons. However, within a few days of July 1, the annual quota was exhausted. According to market sources, the number of hot-dip galvanized steel coils imported by European buyers from China for automobiles has exceeded the annual quota by about 30%. According to the relevant provisions of EU import safeguard measures, the subsequent import of over-quota galvanized rolls will have to pay 25% tariff. Affected by tariffs, the enthusiasm of over-quota European international purchasing of Chinese galvanized coils declined, the demand for galvanized coils declined in the future, and the demand for galvanized coils was negative in the future.

International policies and regulations

On June 28, 2019, Ukraine’s Interdepartmental International Trade Commission issued a bulletin, deciding to impose anti-dumping duties of 22.78% and 47.57% on galvanized sheets imported from China and Russia respectively for a period of five years. The levy of anti-dumping duty has a negative impact on the export of domestic galvanized sheets, and zinc market has a negative impact.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Agencies, believes that in China, zinc production is increasing month by month, zinc market is gradually changing from short supply to over demand, and zinc concentrate processing fees remain high, which further stimulates the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises and increases the situation of excess supply in zinc market. In terms of downstream demand, the trend of real estate in the third quarter looks at. In terms of household appliances, the summer will go, and the household appliances will change from peak season to off season. In the future, the demand of household appliances for zinc will decline, and the overall demand for zinc is not optimistic. Internationally, EU countries purchased large quantities of galvanized coils in July, which is good for the zinc market, but affected by tariffs, the overall future zinc market is bad; Ukraine imposed tariffs on galvanized sheets produced in China, affecting the export of galvanized sheets, affecting the demand of the zinc market. In summary, the supply of zinc in the future city is growing steadily, the demand of zinc is not good, and the shortfall is obvious. The supply and demand of zinc in China is gradually changing from short supply to over demand. Zinc prices in the future are not motivated enough, the pressure of decline is still there. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future, and the zinc market has not yet shown an upward trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 242.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 235.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 7.50 yuan/ton, or 3.09%, down 50.26% from the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 36.58 on July 26.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong fell slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 230 yuan/ton this week, and the quotation was temporarily stable; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation fell from 120 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 90 yuan/ton at the end of the week, and the quotation fell by 30 yuan/ton; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation was 450 yuan/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua’s quotation was 170 yuan/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining; the downstream ammonium market is light, the new orders are not satisfactory, the atmosphere is not good, the diammonium market is relatively stable, the high level is strong, the sulfuric acid enterprises have multiple early orders, short-term start is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream prices fell slightly, downstream purchases were general, and products went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market rose this week, with the average market price of 10,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10,333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, which was 2.31% higher than that of last week.

II. Market Analysis

Aluminum fluoride prices remained stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is 9600-10200 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,800 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,500 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Hydrofluoric acid price trend slightly declined this week, enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, the recent market is poor, some enterprises have normal start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant, factory price trend slightly declined, the recent start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the supply of hydrofluoric acid plant is normal, the current southern region. The mainstream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiations is 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant industry has maintained a low start-up rate. The supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend in the field has declined. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly, but the downstream aluminum fluoride market performance is stable. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride remained stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts from the business society chemical branch believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material, has been slightly revised back. Aluminum fluoride prices are expected to run steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulphate has been running steadily this week. The average price of ammonium sulphate at the beginning of the week is 676 yuan/ton, while that of ammonium sulphate at the end of the week is 678 yuan/ton. The price trend is stable.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price maintained stable operation. At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is offered 650-750 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in East China is offered 650-750 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Northeast China is offered 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in North China is offered 580-680 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Central China is offered 650-700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In raw materials, domestic sulfuric acid market prices rose slightly, local flexible rise and fall, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulphate analysts from the business association believe that coking plants have started construction steadily and the supply is tight. The start-up rate of lactam level has been slightly increased, and local supply is tight. With the approaching of autumn, compound fertilizer enterprises began to purchase, and the start-up rate increased. The ammonium sulfate Market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 45.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 5.00 yuan/ton, or 2.00%, 47.03% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market fell this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 39.10 on July 19.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This week, the prices of some sulphuric acid manufacturers in Shandong fell slightly, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 230 yuan/ton this week, and the quotation was temporarily stable; Zouping Tianlu’s quotation fell from 150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 130 yuan/ton at the end of the week, and the quotation fell by 20 yuan/ton; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation was 450 yuan/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua’s quotation was 170 yuan/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

Recently, the domestic sulfur market has been declining; the downstream ammonium market is light, the new orders are not satisfactory, the atmosphere is not good, the diammonium market is relatively stable, the high level is strong, the sulfuric acid enterprises have multiple early orders, short-term start is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market turnover is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream prices fell slightly, downstream purchases were general, and products went down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6,200 yuan/ton (including taxes) as of July 19. The average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 33.33 yuan/ton (including taxes) lower than last Friday, and the average weekly price-to-ring ratio was reduced by -0.53%. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6,000-6,400 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Mainstream price of n-butanol declined steadily and slightly, price was loose. Under the pressure of new orders shipment, some factories in Shandong Province offered lower prices. The atmosphere of new orders transaction in the market was dull, and the focus of negotiation declined slightly. Because of the high cost pressure of n-butanol, the willingness of Shandong switchable plant to switch production of octanol is strong, and the pressure of n-butanol sales may be eased, which does not exclude the possibility of reducing the start-up load of some manufacturers.

Industry chain: Propylene price of upstream product of n-butanol has been lowered, the mainstream of Shandong propylene market has been raised to 7600-7700 yuan/ton, terminal demand is general, powder is narrow and loose, upstream and downstream trading atmosphere is not good, inventory pressure of refineries has risen, so the enthusiasm of profit and drainage is generally high. Butyl ester, a downstream product of n-butanol, started to decline and demand decreased slightly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: In late July, the volatility of n-butanol market is not large, and it is still mainly stable.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market has been running steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 4966 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 4966 yuan/ton at weekend.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market price has been running steadily. At present, the quotation of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Northwest China is about 5100 yuan/ton, 52 chlorinated paraffins in South China 4500-5000 yuan/ton, 52 chlorinated paraffins in North China 3800-5500 yuan/ton, 52 chlorinated paraffins in East China 4000-5500 yuan/ton, 52 chlorinated paraffins in Central China 4000-5000 yuan/ton, and Shandong Province. Regional chlorinated paraffin 52 factory quotation 4000-5000 yuan/ton.

International crude oil: OPEC lowered global crude oil demand expectations, Hurricane Barry disturbed the Gulf of Mexico, coupled with the situation in Iran is still unstable factors, short-term good intertwined with a small decline in international oil prices. On Thursday (July 11), WTI August 19 futures fell $0.23 per barrel at $60.20, while Brent September 19 futures fell $0.49 at $66.52. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract was about 1908 yuan 454.3 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan.

3. Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts at the business association believe that the upstream price of liquid paraffin is stable, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, and the demand has not improved. At present, the overall market turnover is flat, downstream picking up goods cautiously, the market is wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weaker in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices recovered on July 15 and rose for the first time since July. On July 15, the price of cobalt rose 0.31% to 216833.33 yuan/ton, down 5.52% from 229500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Following the sharp decline, cobalt prices rose for the first time in July. Does this mean that the cobalt market will come in spring and how will the cobalt market develop in the future?

II. Market Analysis

New energy automobiles are not optimistic in the future

According to the wholesale sales data of passenger car manufacturers, the wholesale sales of new energy narrow passenger cars in June reached 134,000 units, an increase of 90% over the same period last year. From January to June 2019, the sales of new energy passenger cars reached 570,000 units, an increase of 65% over the same period last year. June is the last month of the transition period of the New Deal of Subsidies, which objectively stimulates early consumption and overdraws some future consumption. The surge in sales of new energy vehicles in June can not reflect the real demand of the market, on the contrary, it will inhibit the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the future. It is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the future will slow down, which is bad for the future cobalt market.

Mobile phone sales are declining

In June 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 34.31 million units, down 6.3% from the same period last year; in January-June 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 186 million units, down 5.1% from the same period last year. Sales of mobile phones declined, demand for cobalt declined, which was bad for the cobalt market.

On July 15, the price of cobalt salt fell, putting pressure on the price of cobalt metal. The downstream market of cobalt metal was negative, the future market of cobalt was negative, and the short-term performance of cobalt market was difficult.

Fourth, the outlook for the future market:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that although cobalt prices recovered briefly on July 15, the market of cobalt is still not optimistic. The price of cobalt salt in the downstream continued to fall, which exerted great pressure on the price of cobalt metal; the new energy automobile market performed well in June, but overdrawn the future of new energy automobiles in the future, the demand of cobalt Market in the future was not good, and the price of cobalt lost its support; the sales of mobile phones fell sharply, the demand of cobalt Market dropped, and the profit of cobalt price was obvious, but the shortfall of cobalt price was obvious. With the introduction of 5G mobile phone market, mobile phone sales may explode in the future, the demand for cobalt will decrease in the short run, and the demand for cobalt will rise in the long run. On the supply side, although the collapse of cobalt mine occurred in Congo Kinshasa, the overall impact on cobalt mineral energy is small, and the supply of cobalt is sufficient.

Generally speaking, the cobalt Market in the future has sufficient supply, poor short-term performance of demand, long-term or outbreak growth. There is no momentum for cobalt price to rise in the short term, and there is a great pressure to fall. In the long run, the cobalt market is still bullish, the space for cobalt price to fall is limited, and it is difficult for cobalt price to continue to fall. Cobalt prices are expected to fall in the short run and remain bullish in the long run.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week. The average price of cryolite market was about 6333.33 yuan/ton in the week, down 3.41% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cryolite prices are running smoothly this week, and there is no price adjustment for manufacturers. Up to the 12th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7300 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic fluorite market price trend is rising this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic market price is about 312.50 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average domestic market price is about 3150.00 yuan/ton. Within the week, the increase is 1.20%, up 17.54% from the same period last year. Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week, and the start-up rate of fluorite plants did not change much, but downstream demand improved, the spot supply of fluorite was tight, and fluorite prices rose slightly due to various factors. Downstream electrolytic aluminium: This week, the price of aluminium went down, with a slight drop. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 13780.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 13736.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.31%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products of business associations believe that: at present, the device is running normally, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory and no pressure, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable, and the market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period.