1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market this week shows an upward trend. The average price of ethylene at the weekend is 790.50 USD / ton, up 3.23% from 765.75 USD / ton at the beginning of the week, and the current price is down 3.12% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the weekend, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $775-785 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $690-700 / ton. The price of European ethylene market rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $883-893 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $795-803 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the week, the price was US $399-416 / ton. Overall, after new year’s day, the European and American ethylene market rose as a whole, and the whole ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on January 9, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to 59.56 US dollars / barrel, down 0.05 US dollars or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 65.37 US dollars / barrel, down 0.07 US dollars or 0.1% compared with the previous trading day. According to the news, oil production and transportation in the Middle East have not been substantially affected. The unexpected increase of crude oil inventory in the United States has led to the decline of crude oil price. However, the rise of crude oil for three consecutive trading days in the early stage still plays a supporting role in the price of ethylene. In the later stage, it is good to support the rise of ethylene price. This week, the external market of ethylene rose. The price of styrene in the lower reaches was concussive and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which supported the price of ethylene.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the ethylene analyst of business and chemical branch: recently disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is some uncertainty in the direction of the situation. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, so the ethylene price is expected to keep a narrow range in the future, which does not exclude the possibility of rising 。

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 48751.67 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 48625 yuan / ton, down 0.26%, up 2.53% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Copper and copper price: LME copper in March this week rebounded from last week’s decline, closing at $6194, up 0.92%. This week, the Shanghai copper index rebounded from a low of 48540 yuan. It soared 48930 yuan in the middle of the week and finally closed at 48980 yuan. This week, the price rose 120 yuan, or 0.25%.

Copper fundamentals have not changed, the downstream has entered a light state before the festival, and spot copper is weak. The willingness of cash exchange of cargo holders increased, domestic passenger vehicle sales kept declining, and consumption improvement in copper market was limited.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society believe that the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile.

quotations analysis

In December, the organosilicon DMC market set off multiple rounds of price hikes, the manufacturers’ mentality improved, the downstream enterprises took the initiative to prepare goods, and the sales orders were positive. Near the Spring Festival of 2020, the organosilicon market has begun to “close down” one after another. Starting this week, the organosilicon manufacturers began to have holidays one after another, and many monomer factories have stopped for maintenance. Although some manufacturers said they would stick to the end of the month, the sales of organosilicon DMC market has changed from At the end of last week, it began to be cold gradually. Due to the optimistic market arrangement in the early stage, some orders of large factories have been booked to, inventory is not under pressure, and market stock has been basically completed. Before the Spring Festival, the market of organosilicon DMC is basically stable without suspense, and the market price will still be strong. The market is optimistic and waiting. As of January 13, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is about 18300-19200 yuan / ton; The spot exchange price quoted by some manufacturers is 18100 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market

According to the analysts of the business club: during the Spring Festival, many monomer factories stopped for maintenance, and heard that some monomer factories wanted to reduce the output of organosilicon DMC after the festival. Some middle and lower reaches manufacturers are optimistic about the opening market after the festival, and any small number of downstream enterprises began to prepare appropriate inventory, which also shows that downstream manufacturers are optimistic about the price trend of organosilicon DMC after the festival, which provides reverse support for the trend of organosilicon DMC after the festival, but also Some people in the industry are worried that the production capacity will be improved after the joint development, and the market may have a supply and demand situation with supply exceeding demand, which may also be the most important factor affecting the continuous rise of organosilicon DMC in the future market. However, in terms of the current situation, upstream manufacturers have little pressure on inventory, and maintain an optimistic high offer situation in the beginning of the year, but it is still uncertain how long the high market can last after the joint development, which is still needed Pay attention to the overall trend of the upstream and downstream market as well as the supply and demand after the festival.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose this week. As of January 10, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 4612.50 yuan / ton, up 112.50 yuan / ton, or 2.50% compared with 4500.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the week, and down 23.34% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and rose. The ex factory price in North China was about 4500-4700 yuan / ton, the price in East China was about 4800 yuan / ton, and the price in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The price rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 100 yuan / ton. Acetic anhydride manufacturers’ inventory is low, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is rising. Acetic anhydride market is good.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose this week, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride falling weakened and the power of rising increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

It can be seen from the figure that this week’s methanol price fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened and the upward momentum increased, and the price of acetic anhydride rose, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials, acetic acid and methanol have both recovered this week, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the market of acetic anhydride has been favorable, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased; as the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream customers start to stock up, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of acetic anhydride has increased, the demand for acetic anhydride has increased, and the low inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers has increased the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride. Generally speaking, acetic anhydride market in the future is expected to rise in shock.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 3, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5150 yuan / ton, down 2.57% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4965 yuan / ton. After a five-day shock adjustment, by Friday, the price was 5015 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 1.01%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of January 2, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 67.60%, down 0.72% compared with Friday.

At present, the commissioning of Hengli Petrochemical glycol unit has been completed, and it has been stopped waiting for the ethylene link to be opened.

As of January 2, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 415000 tons, down 11500 tons or 2.85% from last Thursday, down 21000 tons or 5.33% from this Monday. Among them, there are 188000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 11000 tons lower than last Thursday; 85000 tons in Ningbo; 39000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu; 68000 tons in Taicang.

According to the news, from January 2 to January 8, it is estimated that 146000 tons will arrive at the main port of East China, about 80000 tons at Zhangjiagang wharf, about 31000 tons at Taicang and about 27000 tons at Ningbo.

In the downstream, polyester market gradually shut down for holidays. At present, the unit operation rate is 79.81%, and the production and sales ratio is 47.00%. The short-term supply is just needed, and the middle-line demand is weak.

3、 Future forecast

This week, the shipment of glycol port has increased, so although the cargo has arrived at the port, the inventory still has decreased. In the later stage, the new equipment will be started one after another, and the arrival of cargo will increase, which will affect the market confidence. Downstream polyester gradually entered the pre Festival demand reduction period, the operating rate will continue to decline, glycol price lack of support. Combined with the above factors, glycol analysts believe that glycol prices will face shock adjustment in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of December 27, the average ex factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6343.33 yuan / ton, up 0.53% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6300 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on December 27 was 78.29, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.71% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 85.35% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, and trading was basically stable.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 60.44 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 61.68 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by 2.05%; Brent crude oil is 66.14 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 67.92 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by 2.69%. At present, the trade relations between China and the United States have eased, the global economic slowdown concerns have subsided, and OPEC countries will continue to reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market fell in shock this week, down about 1.07% as of Friday. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5500-5550 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic isomeric xylene market fell back, down about 0.96% as of Friday. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5750 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and the market price is about 6700 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are nine commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (3.12%), Brent crude oil (2.69%) and petroleum coke (2.08%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products falling are LNG (- 6.30%) and methanol (- 0.85%). This week’s average was 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, naphtha refining increased slightly this week, and the international crude oil price continued to rise this week. Some suppliers prepared goods in advance, some refineries destocked and delivered goods actively. At present, the market just needs to be strong. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will stabilize in the near future, and some refineries will fluctuate slightly, with the average price range of 6200-6400 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of cryolite this week is stable. The average market price in the week is 5966.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price in the weekend is 5900.00 yuan / ton. The price is increased by 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.13%, 7.25% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the price trend of cryolite is temporarily stable. Cryolite enterprises have sufficient inventory and fair transaction. The quotation of manufacturers in Henan Province is mainly stable, and the quotation of some enterprises is increased. The main reason is that in the winter heating season, affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream production is reduced, the raw materials are in short supply, and the price keeps up with the rise. The inventory of enterprises before this year is still acceptable, and they are sold by single. As of 27, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6500-6950 yuan / ton; the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 5000-6400 yuan / ton. At present, the price of cryolite of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton; that of Jiaozuo Minli industry is 6500 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology is 6400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite is stable this week, and the average price of domestic market at the weekend is about 2894.44 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the beginning of the week. In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has fluctuated, with little change in price. The supply of goods within the site is normal, the market is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, and the spot supply of fluorite is normal. In terms of the downstream aluminum industry, the aluminum price this week shows an “inverted V” trend. The average market price at the beginning of the week is 14456.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week is 14450.00 yuan / ton, down 6.67 yuan / ton. The price in the week is down 0.05%. The overall price has little change. In the winter heating season, due to the environmental protection industrial production policy, the aluminum output may be reduced, which will also have an impact on the upstream cryolite industry.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of business association, at present, the quotation of cryolite market is multi-dimensional and stable, the manufacturer’s devices are in normal operation, and the inventory is acceptable. When the supply exceeds the demand, the enterprise’s competitive pressure is obvious, and the downstream purchase tends to be low. Considering the influence of upstream raw materials, the enterprise is less likely to sell at low price. It is expected that the cryolite market will be reorganized and operated in the later stage, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s domestic bromine market was slightly stable, with the average price at the beginning of the week around 30666 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend around 30722 yuan / ton, slightly up 0.18%, down 11.34% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: the domestic bromine market started at a low level this week. The enterprise’s delivery situation is general, and the supply of goods is limited. Some enterprises have suspended the delivery. However, the downstream market is still on the ground, showing a weak trend of supply and demand in the industry. At present, the enterprise’s quotation is between 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of bromine chemical industry, one kind of commodities falling and two kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were sulfuric acid (3.53%) and bromine (0.18%); the main commodities falling were sulfur (- 5.63%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the supply side and demand side of domestic bromine market are in a weak stage, while the downstream market mainly purchases rigid demand, but the rigid demand is soft, and the bromine price is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business Club monitoring: in 2019, PP changed its strong momentum in 2018, and the price fluctuated back. As of December 23, the main offer price of T30S, a domestic producer and trader of PP, was about 7916.67 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 14.10% compared with that at the beginning of the year. This year, a lot of rubber and plastic materials are trapped in the same negative situation of capacity expansion and weak demand, PP is no exception. The main reason for the weakness of PP in this year is the long-term production background and the shrinking downstream.

After the beginning of 2019, the price of propylene in the upstream of PP continued to go down and the inventory was high, so the merchants lowered the focus of offer to deal with it. Upstream support weakened. The first half of the year also witnessed the easing of the Sino US trade war, with crude oil supported by tensions in the Middle East and OPEC production cuts. The improvement of US trade and the gradual rise of crude oil played a supporting role in PP market. However, the overall supply and demand of PP is weak, and the industry continues to de stock. The weakening of downstream demand in the second quarter is one of the main reasons for negative PP, and the new production expectation has also started to release pressure to PP supply side at this time. At the same time, in the first half of the year, there were less parking and maintenance in China’s petrochemical enterprises, and imported materials were successively concentrated in Hong Kong. The multi-faceted decline resulted in a staged low of 8233.33 yuan / ton in early June.

In the second half of the year, PP upstream propylene market experienced ups and downs due to uncertain international crude oil prices in the third quarter. At the end of July, the price of crude oil rose sharply. By the middle of the quarter, the international crude oil market had been sharply reduced several times, which resulted in a phased negative for propylene. At the end of the quarter, affected by international news such as the attack on Saudi oil production facilities, the US President Trump’s consideration of relaxing sanctions on Iran, and Saudi Arabia’s statement that oil production will resume soon, the international crude oil market suddenly dived after the surge, and the propylene market experienced twists and turns. However, the supply is tight before and after the festival, and the current refinery inventory is low. The downstream polymerization factories are profitable, the customers are active in purchasing and active in transaction. With the completion of goods preparation, the profit of the merchants was sold, and the price of propylene fell in late September.

Accordingly, the domestic PP price was adjusted in the third quarter, and the beginning of the quarter was at the end of the field digestion inventory stage, and the inventory pressure was further reduced. In addition, the price of propylene at the cost end fluctuated higher, and the willingness of some businesses to hold up the price increased. Domestic PP offer fluctuated higher. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in futures also boosted spot prices. Compared with June’s market, the shock correction lasted until August. The overhaul capacity was 348800 tons, an increase of 37.43% compared with 258800 tons in July. In the middle of the quarter, the cost support from propylene also decreased, leading to factory price reduction due to many factors.

As the demand side raw material inventory is relatively low before the peak season, the PP market will naturally rise in the peak season. Moreover, at the end of the quarter, the “double festival” stock up boom was intensified. In addition, the air pollution control plan around Beijing Tianjin wing caused the shutdown of polymerization plants in many cities. The inventory of two barrels of oil PP and traders continued to decline, and businesses actively shipped goods, and the inventory decreased significantly. Tight spot supply is good for price formation. Until the end of September and the beginning of October, PP futures fell in shock, which affected the confidence of the industry. The focus of spot price in most regions was loose, the market rose and fell, weak shock. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the market supply is expected to increase. With the stock up boom basically completed, high-end price transactions decreased and PP price fell.

During the National Day holiday, due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and traffic, the markets of all parties generally maintained stability, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, the overall price of PP market fell in October, a weak correction. The upstream propylene market weakened, with limited cost support for PP. In terms of supply, in the middle of this month, the units such as Anyuan united and Daqing Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation again, with the domestic operation rate reaching 90%, and the peak season of PP maintenance was ended. New equipment capacity is also gradually put into production, and domestic supply pressure will continue to increase. After saving, the replenishment of downstream factories has been completed, without centralized replenishment. Under the influence of environmental protection policies, it is difficult to further improve the downstream operating rate, which is still low compared with the same period last year. As a result, the stock removal rate of petrochemical industry began to slow down.

At the end of the year, the spot prices of PP market showed each other’s rise and fall, and the overall adjustment was weak and volatile. From the end of the year to the beginning of next year, the production capacity of PP also put a lot of pressure on the supply side. Compared with 2015 and 2016, the production capacity expansion of PP in recent two years is converging. However, in 2019, the domestic production capacity has exploded. According to statistics, the annual new production capacity including powder is expected to be close to 6 million tons, with a growth rate of 26.3%. Industry competition is becoming increasingly fierce and profits are being squeezed. In addition, the main demand of plastic products – plastic weaving, BOPP film, non-woven fabric, injection molding and other performance weak. The weak downstream products and the slow follow-up of the downstream factories’ replenishment are the important factors and manifestations of the compression of the profits of plastic enterprises.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think that the performance of polypropylene market in 2019 is a typical imbalance between supply and demand. The expansion of capacity growth has reached its highest since 2010. And this capacity expansion is expected to continue until 2021, and PP capacity will be in the stage of rapid expansion for a long time. In addition, the foreign trade of rubber and plastic industry in China is blocked to some extent, and the competition between domestic polymerization plants will be more and more fierce. At the same time, the upstream propylene market is volatile, which has limited support for PP. The follow-up of the growth of the downstream demand side cannot smooth the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity. Therefore, the business club believes that in 2019, PP fundamentals are long and short, and the market is weak and volatile in terms of results. In the next two years, with the release of supply side pressure from new capacity, PP industry may be more difficult.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of main carbide manufacturers was 2703.33 yuan / ton, down 0.1% year on year. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market is temporarily stable, December 20 calcium carbide commodity index is 70.83.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China this week is temporarily stable: the price of carbide in oveganeng this weekend is 2590 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide in Shaanxi coal industry this weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide in China United Inner Mongolia this week is 2820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide in Xingping Ningxia this weekend is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week In comparison, the offer is stable for the time being.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2400-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable this week, with the quotation of 730.00 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price dropped from 7025.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7007.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.28%, up 6.58% year on year. Although the downstream PVC market fell slightly this week, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough, but the PVC market in the downstream is good, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock in late December.