Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the ex-factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex-factory quotation in Shandong fell from 7633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7366.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 3.49%, 23.10% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index of 54.17 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

At present, the domestic octanol plant start-up rate is still acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng 80,000 tons/year octanol plant start-up normal, this week’s offer is firm; Jiangsu Huachang chemical octanol plant annual capacity 80,000 tons, no maintenance plan.

This week, the quotation of Shandong main octanol producers fell slightly: Hualu Hengsheng’s offer for octanol was 7500 yuan/ton this weekend, down 200 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan Chemical’s offer for octanol this weekend was 7400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; Lihua Yi’s offer for octanol this weekend was 7200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan compared with the beginning of the week./ Tons.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: Propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 7448.46 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7503.85 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.74%, a decrease of 26.35% over the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly, which is affected by supply and demand, and has a positive impact on octanol price.

Downstream market: DOP ex-factory prices fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.00%, 21.72% compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers’enthusiasm for octanol purchasing declined, the demand for octanol was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on the octanol market. Future traders are more likely to watch the trend of DOP.

3. Future Market Forecast

Octanol market trend or low consolidation in Shandong in mid-October. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Upstream propylene prices rose slightly, cost support was strong, but downstream DOP market declined significantly, downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, and at present, octanol inventory in Shandong is low, delivery is tight, high-end decline, low-end bottom overall controllable. Octanol analysts believe that the octanol market in Shandong Province in mid-October under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, octanol market or low consolidation.

Commodity Index: On October 11, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 108.65, which was the same as yesterday. It was 0.33% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 109.01 points (2019-08-28), and 7.68% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: The mainstream manufacturers monitored by business associations, after the resumption of production in late September, prices have been relatively stable. After the National Day holiday, some manufacturers’prices have increased by about 10 yuan/ton. On Oct. 1, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan/ton, and on Oct. 8, 2100 yuan/ton, a small increase of 0.5%, with little fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of the trade association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) with tax, 350-500 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) with tax. After the highest price was raised during the suspension of production last month, some manufacturers have maintained the quotation level up to now, but Prices of most manufacturers have not changed much.

Industry chain: In early October, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China, which was monitored by business associations, dropped sharply after the end of National Day holidays. The mainstream market quotation was 166.67 yuan/ton on the 1st day, 156.37 yuan/ton on the 11th, with a decrease of 5.92%, and the lowest price was 153.33 yuan/ton during the period, with a decrease of about 8%. This month, the downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, the production of polyaluminium chloride in Gongyi, Henan Province is normal, and the supply of goods is normal.

Industry: Since the end of July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and manufacturers have started to resume production. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requests that: according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather conditions in the city, the city attack and strengthen the management of water purification and environmental protection enterprises require all depths. Governance enterprises will stop production before acceptance, and production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. In early May and October, the production of relevant factories was normal and the supply of goods was restored.

Future market forecast: Business association analysis shows that the current supply of goods is normal, downstream demand is stable, production costs have been reduced, pay attention to whether future cost changes will lead to price changes of polyaluminium chloride, the recent trend is still stable.

On September 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 111.40, which was the same as yesterday. It was 5.93% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 43.98% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

In September, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose sharply, up to 6.72%. Some ammonium nitrate plants stopped, the supply decreased and the price of ammonium nitrate plants increased. The price of ammonium nitrate was mainly supported by the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw material nitric acid. The market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply. The shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers did not change much. The downstream purchasing on demand was influenced by environmental protection control. There are still many shutdowns in the homeless explosion industry. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up. The price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply because of the good support of raw materials. Up to now, the regional mainstream is in the range of 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and the regional mainstream is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, and the regional price is 1950-2100 yuan / ton.

In September, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China continued to rise by 54%. The price is 2600 yuan / ton, and 2500 yuan per ton, and 2300 yuan per ton. Audrey quotes 2460 yuan / ton, and the synthetic chemical price of the county is quoted at 2350 yuan / ton. With the National Day approaching, there are many parking overhauls for manufacturers, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid market, difficulty in picking up goods, better demand for festivals, active market stocks, multiple favorable factors, which have led to a sharp rise in the price of concentrated nitric acid and the price of raw material nitric acid, which is a good support for the ammonium nitrate market.

The upstream domestic liquid ammonia market is stable and small, with a slight increase of 2.45% in September. The current local ammonia volume is tight, and there is no pressure on the shipment of the enterprises. However, the manufacturers with stable ammonia price are the main ones. The main quotations in the region are stable at 2900-3100 yuan / ton liquid ammonia Market, and the market turnover is acceptable. The average price of the liquid ammonia market is 3210 yuan / ton. The price of ammonium nitrate in Northwest China is 2500-2800 yuan per ton. The high level of liquid ammonia market has a positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply.

In recent years, the demand of the downstream civil explosion industry has not improved. The demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a high stock. However, the price of raw materials market has risen sharply. In addition, near the National Day, some ammonium nitrate manufacturers in the North may be restricted. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, although the downstream demand has not changed much, it is expected that ammonium nitrate market prices will rise due to the support of raw materials in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average price quoted by mainstream carbide manufacturers rose from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.13%, down 3.56% from the same period last year. Overall, the market for calcium carbide rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 78.17 on September 27.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: Ovijaneng’s offer for the weekend was 2950 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer for the weekend was 2800 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia China Union’s offer for 3050 yuan/ton this week, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The price of carbide in Xingping, Ningxia, was 2,950 yuan/ton this week, which was stable compared with the early week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 27.45% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC fell from 6770.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.66%, a decrease of 1.44% over the same period last year. Downstream PVC market slightly declined, downstream customers are generally motivated to purchase calcium carbide. As a whole, this week’s slight decline in PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. However, due to the proximity of National Day, strict transportation inspection, some manufacturers prepares goods in advance.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. The price of PVC in the downstream has slightly fallen, and the purchase enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is general. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in early October, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at about 2950 yuan/ton.

A Survey of the Price Trend of Aluminum Ingot in September

In September, domestic aluminium ingot prices rose first and then fell. Taking the Mid-Autumn Festival as a turning point, two reverse trends were opened, and the overall operation was “bridge” type. Previous prices of aluminium ingots continued to run strongly in August. According to data from business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) on September 12 was 14563.33 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the average market price of 14290 yuan/ton on September 1, and 4.87% from the average market price of August 1, 13886.67 yuan/ton. Returning after the festival, the price of aluminium ingots began to decline. As of September 27, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) was 14046.67 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.70%.

Affected by the production reduction factors in August (the successive production reduction incidents in Weiqiao, Xinfa and Aba Aluminum Plant in Shandong Province, the partial closure of Zhongwang Aluminum Industry and the replacement and reduction of Jinning Aluminum and Magnesium Production Capacity), the price of aluminium ingots has risen sharply, touching the 14550 front line and reaching the annual peak.

In view of the fact that Indonesia’s bauxite has far less impact on the aluminium industry than its nickel mine’s importance, after the enthusiasm of the market, the price of aluminium ingot failed to replicate the crazy trend of “demon nickel”. After a slight increase, it quickly returned to the rational price, and the price is now lower than the price at the time of news.

September industry unexpected news

The Emergency Command of Heavily Polluted Weather in Luliang City decided to implement mandatory emission reduction measures including the aluminum industry (from 0:00 on September 25 to 24:00 on October 2). It is reported that the effect of this measure on alumina in Luliang City is greater than that of electrolytic aluminium and prebaked anode. According to the estimated operating capacity, if strictly implemented, the output of alumina and electrolytic aluminium will be affected by this policy, which is about 120,000 tons and 0.15 million tons respectively.

On September 26, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to abolish the linkage mechanism of coal and electricity prices from January 1 next year and change the benchmark price mechanism into a market-oriented mechanism of “benchmark price + fluctuation”. The meeting decided to seize the opportunity when the current coal-fired power generation market-oriented trading volume has accounted for about 50% and the electricity price is significantly lower than the benchmark electricity price. For the electricity that has not yet achieved the market-oriented trading, the benchmark price is determined according to the electricity price on the benchmark across the country. The floating range is not more than 10%, and the floating range is not more than 15% in principle. The specific electricity price is determined by supply and demand. Negotiations or bids are made between the two sides, but they will not rise for the time being next year. In particular, it is necessary to ensure that the average price of electricity in general industry and commerce does not fall or rise.

Export Ring Ratio of Aluminum Foil Products Moved Down in August

Customs data show that in August 2019, China exported 981,000 tons of aluminium foil products, down 13.32% annually, down 9.85% year-on-year, and the total export volume of aluminium foil in January-August this year was 881,500 tons, an increase of 5.04% compared with the same period last year. Among them, in August, the ring ratio of products with tax deduction code number 76071120 increased by 9.06%, while the ring ratio of aluminum foil products with other four tax code numbers decreased by 13-16%.

Expected market outlook

The price of raw material alumina has basically hit the bottom, the basic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminium are good, and the price regression is basically in place. It is expected that the near future shocks will be the main operation, and the actual demand changes downstream will be paid attention to in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the domestic PC market showed an upward trend in mid-September, with prices rising. As of September 20, domestic producers and TRADERS’offer prices for Bayer 2805 averaged about 19366.67 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the first week of September.

II. Cause Analysis

At the beginning of September, China began to impose anti-dumping duties on Phenol in the United States. Influenced by the strong support of raw material cost, Bisphenol A in upstream PC entered the upstream channel, the focus of domestic spot quotation moved upward, and the willingness of merchants to bid appeared. By mid-September, production cost support was further strengthened, the sentiment of BPA speculation remained unchanged, and the market focus of BPA continued to move upwards. Downstream follow-up is a few more cautious, factories buy and sell mainly to digest the rally. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol A spot price will still be offered in the near future, which will support the domestic PC cost. At present, the domestic PC market is cautious in high-level trading due to the severe impact of international crude oil shocks. The enthusiasm of downstream factories for stock-up has improved slightly during the “double-festival” period, but downstream operators’operation is gradually limited and their mentality is in a cautious wait-and-see state. As of Friday, the domestic PC spot offer showed a high consolidation status.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that in mid-September domestic PC upstream bisphenol A was boosted by rising raw materials and strong growth, PC cost-side support is larger. The downstream demand affected by the heat of two-section reserve stock has improved, and the purchase of reserve stock is prudent. Domestic PC prices are in high order. From the market performance, it is speculated that the price will still be in the near future. It is suggested that close attention should be paid to the domestic supply situation.

Commodity Index: On September 19, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 108.11, which was the same as yesterday. It was 0.83% lower than the peak of 109.01 points in the cycle (2019-08-28), and 7.15% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the mainstream manufacturers monitored by business associations, after the price of polyaluminium chloride rose significantly in the second half of August, the price of polyaluminium chloride remained relatively stable from the first half of September to the middle of September. On September 1st, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the mainstream quotation was 2000 yuan/ton. The market was stable. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) with tax, 350-500 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) with tax, and 100-200 yuan/ton for solid in August. The price range was maintained in the first half of this month, with the liquid rising by 50 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In recent years, the price of hydrochloric acid in upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride has risen sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 140 yuan/ton on the 20th day, with an increase of about 13.5%. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, the polyaluminium chloride manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province is still in the shutdown period. It relies on stock delivery to give priority to the consumption of old downstream customers. The supply of new customers is affected. Because the shutdown has lasted for more than a month, the inventory of the manufacturer is more tight than the previous period.

Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “Notice of shutdown” recently. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the municipal attack and fortification office requests all enterprises in-depth control to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance according to key problems. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days, and asked to restart production from the 15th. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers were not notified of the start of construction. Strict environmental protection inspections were under way. According to the manufacturers, the current shortage of goods was aggravated after the National Day of the Eleventh National Day.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that due to the impact of environmental shutdown, the inventory of factories in Gongyi area of Henan Province, one of the main production areas, has become tense. Although inventory priority is given to old customers, it is difficult for new customers to seek goods. Prices for new customers have increased significantly in the early period, but in the later period, with the increase of supply tension, the price of old customers has been excluded. Possibility of lattice up-regulation.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

The average price of nitric acid in eastern China was 2466 yuan/ton on September 24, up 43.69% from 1716 yuan/ton in eastern China last week, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Market analysis

Products: Concentrated nitric acid prices continued to rise substantially on September 24. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical quoted 2600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Anhui Jinhe quoted 2500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days); Shandong Helitai quoted 2300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week’s quotation (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2460 yuan/ton, 410 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17) quotation; Wenshui County synthetic chemical quotation 2350 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton higher than the 23-day quotation. With the National Day approaching, there are more parking overhauls for manufacturers, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid market, difficulty in picking up goods, better demand for festivals, positive market stocks, and multiple positive factors to promote the price of concentrated nitric acid soaring.

Industry chain: the upstream raw material of nitric acid, liquid ammonia, according to the monitoring of business associations, last week (9.16-20) the domestic market of liquid ammonia was stable and small. Some enterprises in Shandong had a slight increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the local ammonia quantity is tight, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship, but the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity are mainly stable, and the mainstream quotation in Shandong is 2900-3100. Yuan / ton. The market price of aniline in Shandong was 7 300-7 400 yuan/ton last week (9.16-20), while that in Nanjing was 7 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.63% over the previous week, according to the monitoring of commercial associations.

3. Future Market Forecast

Affected by environmental protection inspection and enterprise pre-holiday maintenance, limited production or parking of enterprises, tight supply of concentrated nitric acid Market and increased demand before the festival. Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market will be mainly strong operation.

Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 1823.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.73%, 11.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.19 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1780 yuan / ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 40 yuan / ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation in Shandong is about to start, agricultural demand will gradually rise, and some manufacturers will operate at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies and state-owned enterprise safety, so there are too many shutdowns, and urea demand also falls considerably, which affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products slightly increased: natural gas prices quoted 2900.00 yuan / ton this week temporarily stabilized; liquid ammonia prices rose slightly this week, from 333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.04%, down 7.77% year-on-year. Urea cost support is general. Melamine prices have risen slightly downstream this week and purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late September.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China
According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite has been running steadily this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week is 1816.67 yuan/ton, up or down by 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite is general. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan/ton. Most of the prices are concentrated in 1800 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic pyrosulfite market as a whole has a relatively sufficient stock. The continuous reduction of raw material costs has led to prudent purchasing and selling of the main body of trade in the industrial chain. Enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, while new orders are limited. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry Chain: Soda price in the upstream is steadily moving forward this week. Sulfur price is down 2.79% again. Processing cost is still weak. Domestic pyrosulfite market price is warming up and pressured.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that raw material costs continue to be weak adjustment, downstream procurement cautious, expected next week the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to operate at the bottom.