According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.19-1.26), with an average market price of 214160 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 222510 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 3.9%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the futures market, the upward trend continues within the cycle, but as prices rise, the wait-and-see mentality of the spot market gradually arises, with a certain resistance to high prices. As downstream stocking demand gradually weakens. Recently, market trading has been relatively light. In terms of supply, the tight supply pattern at the mining end continues, and it has been further tightened recently. Recently, tin ore processing fees have been reduced by 1000 yuan/metal ton per month, and the latest customs data shows that the import volume of tin concentrate in December has significantly decreased by 41%, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, as the spot market continues to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market has significantly weakened. As the holiday approaches, downstream stocking demand has further tightened. Currently, the overall attitude is cautious and wait-and-see. In the long run, the market generally believes that domestic integrated circuit production will continue to rebound in the future, and market expectations are improving compared to the previous period. Overall, there is still purchasing demand downstream in the short term, but high prices have constrained some of the demand. Without demand support, it is expected that the tin ingot market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term. In the long run, market expectations are still acceptable, and there may be some upward potential in the tin ingot market after the holiday.

Related data:

On January 28th, the base metal index was 1183 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1104 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.88% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (3.95%), nickel (2.95%), and zinc (2.61%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.03%), lead (-0.79%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-0.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was 0.49%.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of January 29th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent grade premium product in China, was 15666.67 yuan/ton. In January, the overall price of PMMA increased by 5.86%, reaching around 1000 yuan/ton. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively high.

In January, the overall PMMA market showed an upward trend. The price at the beginning of January was 14800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of January was 15666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.86%. The upstream acetone raw material price increased, and the cost support was favorable. PMMA prices were pushed up, and Zhejiang Petrochemical delayed the restart before the holiday. Some enterprises had temporary parking, resulting in a tight supply side and a slight increase in industry quotations. Currently, downstream demand is limited, and cost transmission is lagging, The shipment of terminal products is average, and the overall PMMA market quotation is relatively high. The downstream production of PMMA is mainly stable, and the focus of negotiations has shifted upwards.

On January 28th, the rubber index was 667 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.08% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.33% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term. Upstream companies have delayed restarting, and some companies have temporarily stopped production. Currently, the supply side is tightening, and there is a shortage of spot supply. It is difficult for the supply side to recover in the short term, and the market still has some support,

The domestic propane market fluctuated and fell in January. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong’s market was 5588 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 5370 yuan/ton on January 26th. The monthly decline was 3.89%, a decrease of 12.49% compared to the same period last year.

As of January 26th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ January 26th

East China region/ 5000-5250 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5200-5250 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5250 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5000-5200 yuan/ton

The domestic propane market was weak and declined in January. At the beginning of the month, Saudi Arabia introduced a slight increase in CP in January, which slightly boosted the propane market and slightly boosted prices. Subsequently, due to sluggish downstream demand and active upstream buying, coupled with weak prices of crude oil and related liquefied gas, propane prices continued to decline under the pressure of bearish news. On site inventory is relatively high, with downstream buying on dips and upstream reducing prices to reduce inventory.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in January 2024, with propane priced at $620 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane costs $630 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, there are signs of an upward trend in the propane market at the end of the month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the upstream is actively selling goods, while the downstream is not actively entering the market. The CP is about to be introduced in February, and we will closely monitor the external market trends. It is expected that the propane market will operate stronger in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 22, the price of ortho xylene was 7800 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 15, which was 7800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, while the cost of ortho xylene increases; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen, downstream demand has rebounded, the industrial chain has strengthened, and the price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, but the upward support has increased.

Increase in raw material mixed with xylene

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 22, the price of mixed xylene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% from the price of mixed xylene on January 15, which was 7150 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil has risen, the price of naphtha has fluctuated and risen, the cost of mixed xylene has increased, the price of mixed xylene has increased, the cost of ortho xylene has increased, and the driving force for the rise of ortho xylene has increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market rebounds

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7625 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49% from the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on January 15. Downstream rigid demand procurement of phthalic anhydride, increased maintenance of phthalic anhydride units, rising prices of phthalic anhydride, and increased support for ortho benzene demand.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, the price of mixed xylene has increased this week, the cost of neighboring xylene has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen. The market of the ortho benzene industry chain has rebounded and strengthened. Overall, the cost of ortho benzene has risen, and the demand has rebounded. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 12 to January 19, 2024, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar fell, with a price of 3645 yuan/ton on the 12th and 3602.5 yuan/ton on the 19th, a decrease of 1.17%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a continuous decline from November to December. In recent times, the overall market has seen more declines than gains.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: Coking enterprises have seen a decline in operating rates and supply is tight

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased this week. After the implementation of two rounds of coke reduction, coking enterprises are currently experiencing losses, and some enterprises have voluntarily limited production, resulting in a significant decline in operating rate. The corresponding supply of coal tar has declined compared to the previous period, and the overall supply of coal tar has been tight recently.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market sentiment is weak

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in December, it can be seen that this week, the prices of deep processing related commodities have fluctuated, with some commodity prices slightly decreasing and some commodity prices slightly recovering. However, the price market for some main commodities is still weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, there are certain stocking plans in the downstream market in the near future, and inquiries in the downstream market have significantly increased. Market trading has improved compared to the previous period, and by the weekend, the market atmosphere has significantly improved. In the future, it is expected that there will be a slight rebound in the tar market driven by downstream stocking, but the magnitude of the increase still needs to be monitored by the specific performance of downstream commodities.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market has continued to decline recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands decreasing. As of January 12th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7578.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -0.93% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, news of international crude oil OPEC production reduction and other factors have supported the market, coupled with the recent sustained tension in shipping, prices have been supported and rising. The inventory of propylene remains low, with prices strengthening narrowly. The demand for propane in PDH has weakened and prices have loosened. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is average.

The raw material flow in all directions is average, and the cost side’s support for PP is temporarily stable. In terms of industry load, due to the return of production and maintenance of some production lines, the average load of the polypropylene industry this week was above 77%, which is higher than the previous period. The supply of goods remains abundant, with a narrow decline in inventory, and no improvement in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the holiday situation of terminal enterprises has increased, and the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding is less than 53%. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange and an overall weak market for wire drawing materials.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7500 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -2.28% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.46% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen significant and stable loads, with operating rates at around 39%. The digestion speed of end products is sideways, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is average, which lacks support for the price of non-woven fabrics. It is expected that downstream procurement efforts will not improve, and fibers may continue to be weakly sorted.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has seen a narrow increase this week. As of January 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7987.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by 1.08%, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.45%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the impact of winter climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, there are not many new orders from downstream factories, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market continues to decline narrowly this week. The trend of upstream raw materials is average, and the support for the market from the cost side is average. The production of terminal enterprises is relatively low, and the purchasing operation maintains weak and rigid demand. The PP plant load is once again rising, and it is feared that the supply pressure in the future will not improve. Coupled with factors of insufficient market buying, it is expected that the PP market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has remained stable with little fluctuation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 15th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on Tuesday (January 9th) last week.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently seen a slight increase, with weak and stable prices of raw material glycerol. The cost side has a moderate impact on the market of epichlorohydrin.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is around 50%, and spot supply is tight. Enterprises have weak intentions to sell low, but downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. Inquiries and purchases require small orders to follow up, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere and average transactions. Holders can adjust their prices flexibly according to their own situation, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is stable with little movement.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is average, and there is currently no pressure on supply side inventory. However, demand follow-up is weak, and the market mentality is cautious. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7480.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. The current price has dropped by 1.46% compared to the previous year, and the current price has dropped by 18.24% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly experienced a slight decline in the past two months, and this week’s market continues to decline slightly. The market price of raw material potassium chloride has declined, with poor cost support. Downstream demand generally maintains rigid procurement, and market transactions are light. The market for potassium carbonate continues to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been weak and consolidating, with poor cost support and flat potassium carbonate shipments. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to be watched.

The price of ethylene glycol rose in January

The price of ethylene glycol increased in January. According to data from Business Society, as of January 8th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4406.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4550 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4350 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4400 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Review of ethylene glycol market

Expectations on the news side are leading the recent upward trend in ethylene glycol prices. At the end of last month, after some parking reports were falsified, prices rebounded. This month, market sentiment once again focused on the expectation of import volume contraction. Last Friday, futures prices rose sharply, and spot prices followed suit. At present, downstream investors are relatively cautious about high priced ethylene glycol, with increased wait-and-see sentiment and average trading volume.

Expected future market for ethylene glycol

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are whether the implementation of import volume reduction has been realized, and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will shift.

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still in a weak state, and the reality of high inventory suppresses the upward space of prices. Currently, prices have shown significant upward momentum, and in the future, we will focus on the negative feedback effect of terminal demand variables on raw materials. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic price of hexafluoropropylene has declined this week, with an average price of 36800.00 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of -0.61% compared to the beginning of this month (37025.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Price influencing factors:

Due to weak downstream market demand, market trading volume has decreased; The price trend of raw material fluorite has declined, and the utilization rate of enterprise production capacity is low, resulting in poor sales.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream purchases are mostly on demand, market demand is poor, and production capacity utilization is low. It is expected to operate steadily next week.