I. price trend

EPS market rose slightly. Due to the lack of current guidance information, the on-site wait-and-see mood still dominates, and traders continue to live with their products. The actual follow-up strength of downstream factories is general, and they basically purchase on demand to meet normal production.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9250 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9300 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

EPS is stable, moderate and strong, with obvious wait-and-see mood in the spot market, good enthusiasm in the downstream market, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the market is also small. It is expected that the EPS market as a whole will be mainly in shock consolidation.

I. price trend

 
In October, the market price of NBR weakened slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 17566 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17066 yuan / ton, 2.85% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

II. Market trend analysis

The supply of NBR is sufficient, and the factory price of NBR will be lowered at the end of the month

According to the business agency, the main domestic nitrile manufacturers started normal operation in October, and only Nandi nitrile plant was shut down for maintenance in late October, and the overall domestic supply of nitrile rubber was relatively sufficient. At the end of the month, the ex factory price of some NBR was reduced by more than 1000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, on October 30, the price of shunze NBR in Ningbo was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton, and by the end of the month, the ex factory price of shunze 3355 was 15800 yuan / ton; the price of Lanzhou Petrochemical NBR was reduced by 1300-1400 yuan / ton, by the end of the month, n41e was 15700 yuan / ton, 3305e was 16000 yuan / ton, 3308e was 16000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials plummeted, and the cost dragged NBR

In October, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply, which was negative for the price of NBR. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of raw material butadiene in October was 11581 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 9614 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 16.98% on the whole.

It is difficult for the downstream demand to improve, which will drag down the NBR

On the one hand, due to the continuous impact of the Sino US trade war, the export orders of the downstream enterprises of NBR decreased compared with last year. This year, the overall demand for NBR is poor. On the other hand, due to the impact of the environmental protection inspection in winter, the downstream may have further production reduction. The demand expectation is not optimistic, which also hinders the market prospects of NBR.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply, dragging the NBR; on the other hand, the demand for NBR is insufficient, and the price of NBR will continue to decline.

I. price trend

PS market atmosphere is light, offer generally fell. Traders mostly focus on the change of cost side, while the poor downstream demand is still the main factor hindering market transactions. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9400-10900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10500-11600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS is 9550 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9150 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was cold.

III. future forecast

PS market trend generally stable. There are not many inquiries and purchase intention from downstream factories. Due to the weak effective demand, the turnover is still limited. Poor demand drags the market to continue to explore, and it is expected that PS will continue to be stable, moderate and weak.

I. price trend of lithium hydroxide:

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of October 25 was 69333.33 yuan / ton, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. The market of lithium hydroxide was dominated by stable operation, and the quotations of some enterprises fell, 1.89% lower than that at the beginning of the week, and 2.71% lower than that on September 25.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the market price of lithium hydroxide fell this week. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 68000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 66000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Chenli new material is 66000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 74000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of aiheng (Shanghai) Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. is 74000 yuan / ton. The price is 64000 yuan / ton. The specific price will be discussed separately.

Industry chain: the upstream lithium carbonate market price fell (10.21-10.25) this week, up or down by – 0.37%. In the near future, the market of lithium carbonate has been weak and consolidated, and the downstream industries mainly need to prepare goods.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (8.05%), sulfur (5.05%) and sulfuric acid (4.88%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month-on-month basis, 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were formaldehyde (37%) (- 9.21%), nitric acid (- 8.62%), acetic acid (- 5.29%). This week’s average was – 0.85%.

3. Future forecast:

Analysts of lithium hydroxide of business club think that the weak price of upstream lithium carbonate is stable and wait-and-see, which has certain support for lithium hydroxide. Lithium hydroxide suppliers produce on demand, and it is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by weak consolidation.

I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s gasoline and diesel prices first fell and then rose, slightly rising overall. The domestic gasoline price is 6412 yuan / ton, 0.10% higher than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price is 6504 yuan / ton, 1.81% higher than last week’s diesel price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil price is rising, the domestic gasoline market demand is weak, resulting in the weak rise of gasoline price, and the domestic refined oil market is still strong in diesel and weak in gasoline.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil market was boosted by good news, and the crude oil price continued to rise. The WTI crude oil futures price rose by more than 4% this week. From the news point of view, OPEC’s firm production reduction stimulated the recovery of oil market sentiment; and last week, the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels. This is the first decline in inventory in six weeks. This week, the international crude oil price, driven by the good news, ushered in a short-term upward trend.

Market: at 24:00 on October 21, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 150 yuan and 145 yuan per ton respectively. However, driven by the rise of crude oil price, the domestic refined oil market saw a rise this week. In terms of gasoline, the demand side of the gasoline market continues to be weak, and gasoline shipments from refineries have been weak. Although crude oil has been boosted, the price increase is average. In terms of diesel oil, it is still the relative peak season of diesel oil demand. Oil companies such as infrastructure, mining and outdoor engineering still form a certain support for diesel oil. With the help of the rise of crude oil, the rise of diesel oil price is also expanding, which is far higher than the rise of gasoline price. At present, the domestic refined oil market continues to be strong in diesel and weak in steam.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the price of international crude oil market is only temporarily rising, the demand for diesel oil is supported by the downstream, and the demand for gasoline market is weak. It is expected that the trend of strong diesel and weak gasoline in the oil product market will continue next week.

I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell sharply in the third quarter, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On July 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 720 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 636 yuan / ton, down 11.57%. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on October 17 is 52.44, which is the same as yesterday, 50.66% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), 43.08% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: in the third quarter, the main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 550-730 yuan, and that in North China is 500-720 yuan. Due to the limited market demand, the overall price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in the third quarter was significantly reduced, and the domestic and foreign market of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was cold.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of business agencies, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong fell in the third quarter. The price of raw materials fell slightly, the terminal procurement was average, and the product fell under the contradiction of supply and demand. Under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline. In the third quarter of the downstream compound fertilizer market, the market price fell for a while and many parties held a wait-and-see attitude.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of commodity prices on October 17, 2019, among which epichlorohydrin (1.00%), activated carbon (0.57%) and ethylene (0.03%) are the top three commodities. There are 19 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cyclohexanone (- 4.05%), calcium carbide (- 2.84%) and isopropanol (- 2.55%). The average price of this day was – 0.31%.

III. future forecast

According to the analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association, the market of coking grade ammonium sulphate fell sharply in the third quarter due to the lack of favorable market and the limited downstream demand, and the domestic and foreign shipment of domestic grade ammonium sulphate was not ideal. At the beginning of October, the price of ammonium sulfate bottomed out and rebounded, and the market trend slightly recovered. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate will be sorted out in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, affected by the weakening downstream demand and shrinking turnover, the domestic toluene Market showed a correction trend this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.1%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: affected by the weak global economic indicators and the general correction of bulk commodities, the domestic toluene market continued to pull back this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5900 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume continued to shrink, and the port inventory remained low, about 21000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were mixed, with spot Brent down 0.79%, Brent futures down 0.62%, WTI futures up 1.09% and Dubai futures up 0.77%.

On the downstream side, the price trend of TDI this week is stable and upward. Affected by the delayed restart, temporary shutdown and maintenance of the device, it is expected that the short-term TDI will continue to be strong and volatile. In PX market, the domestic PX price trend is stable, and it is expected that the PX market price will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

 
III. future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of Business News Agency: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the progress of Sino US trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Due to the expected arrival of large quantities of toluene at the end of the month, traders are cautious at present. On the whole, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate and adjust next week.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 bottomed out this week. On October 14, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 13900 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (18 days), the average price was 13933.33 yuan / ton, up 0.24% in the week, down 24.68% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the market price of R22 in refrigerant market increased slightly, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream was weak and consolidated, the cost support for refrigerant was weakened, major air-conditioning manufacturers came out of the maintenance period one after another, the demand was increased, in addition, the refrigerant was affected by quota, the market supply was not much, and the manufacturers’ awareness of firm price was enhanced. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer starts high, the transaction atmosphere has improved, and the industry is optimistic. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 18, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16000 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13300 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated in 12500 yuan / ton – 16000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in North China is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility. The domestic market price of upstream product trichloromethane has fallen to a low level. At present, the overall market supply is abundant, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business association, the support of R22 raw material end is weak, the load of terminal start-up has slightly increased, and the demand has improved. At present, some manufacturers have maintenance plans, and under the quota limit, traders have the sense of hoarding. It is expected that R22 will continue to increase its intention in the short term, but the space is limited.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the price of aniline in Shandong remained stable this week, while that in Nanjing rose slightly. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7600 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing is 8000 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from last week.

II. Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the pure benzene market has a strong bearish atmosphere. The coking industry continues to break new lows. In addition, some downstream maintenance in East China and North China has greatly reduced the demand, and the pure benzene market continues to decline. Friday (October 18) the listing price of pure benzene enterprises was 5000-5600 yuan / ton, down 3.06% from last week. This week, the price of raw nitric acid in East China fell 233.3 yuan / ton, 10% lower than last week.

Product: this week, Shanxi Tianji aniline resumed production and the market supply increased, but the overall aniline inventory of the enterprise was not high, the price was relatively stable, and the profit increased. On Tuesday, enterprises in Nanjing began to prepare for shipping, and the market supply decreased, up 200 yuan / ton. Huatai parking maintenance, market supply continued to reduce.

III. future expectation

Raw materials: at present, there are many overhauls in the North China market, with weak demand; some downstream units are overhauled, with weak market support; in addition, there is a large decline in downstream styrene, with a short market mentality. But for two consecutive weeks, the decline of pure benzene was relatively fierce, and the market dare not blindly chase for space. It is expected that pure benzene will continue to decline next week, but the decline is not big. Cost side loosening is bad for aniline Market.

Due to the low inventory of aniline enterprises and the overhaul of Huatai aniline plant in Dongying, the market supply is tight, which is good for aniline Market.

It is predicted that aniline will move steadily in the near future.

On October 11, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 137.32, 8.7 points higher than yesterday, 36.71% lower than the highest point 216.98 (2017-12-24), 91.41% higher than the lowest point 71.74 on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in October, hydrogen peroxide ended the sharp decline in September and ushered in a sharp rise. As of October 11, the domestic average price was 1263 yuan / ton, up 6.76% per day. Since October 8, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been rising. By October 11, it was 7.98% higher than the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

Since September, hydrogen peroxide has entered the traditional peak consumption season. In September this year, hydrogen peroxide did not rise as expected. After the 11th holiday, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have started the parking maintenance plan, and the supply is tightening. Manufacturers have increased the factory price one after another, and the market continues to develop. The daily increase is from 20 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton, to 100 yuan / ton.

Hydrogen peroxide prices rose sharply on November 11, with Hebei and Anhui the biggest gainers and Shandong relatively small. The ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer Co., Ltd. in Hebei increased to 1350 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 200 yuan / ton. Anhui Jinhe 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1650 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 150 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1450 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan / ton. The price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province is 1180 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan / ton; the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide of Haineng is 1260 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the rise of hydrogen peroxide in October is closely related to the downstream rigid demand support in addition to its own shutdown maintenance. As one of the downstream of hydrogen peroxide, the market of hexanolenediamine is gradually improving. We can see from the comparison chart of hydrogen peroxide and hexanolenediamine that hydrogen peroxide has risen nearly 50% in three months, and the downstream hexanolenediamine market has risen 6.09%. The raw material cost promotes the domestic caprolactam market to rise. The liquid price began to rise under the support of good news, while the solid price kept rising. PA6 followed closely with the price increase. Terminal hexanediamine market recovered, supporting hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise.

Outlook for the future

According to hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club, if the soaring market fails to take place as scheduled in September, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will be ready for development. In October, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will be shut down for maintenance. The future market price is easy to rise and hard to fall, and the silver price is expected to rise.