I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s market comprehensive price is 14333.33 yuan / ton. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream. The purchase is just needed, and the transaction atmosphere is flat.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the downstream demand is limited, the rigid demand is dominated, the overall supply is not up to expectations, the delivery is slow, some spot goods are tight, and the cost of imported materials is still supported. Most businesses are cautious to wait and see the actual orders.

Industry chain: the bisphenol a market in East China has been digested and sorted out. The downstream procurement is not active, and the just need procurement is the main one. The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The traders are under pressure to move goods, but the price is stuck. The range reference is 9500-9600 yuan / ton.

On November 28, the PC commodity index was 59.80, flat with yesterday, down 52.56% from 126.05 (2017-12-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.15% from 55.81, the lowest point on November 18, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

III. future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: the domestic PC market is weak and stable in the short term.

I. price trend

This week (11.25-29), according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to follow the weak market of last week, and continued to decline slightly, with a decline of 0.84% and a downward detection range of 100 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

As far as the market is concerned this week, the liquid ammonia market is still suffering from loose supply and relatively weak demand. The ammonia inventory in most areas of China is at a medium high level. After entering November, the shipment volume has slowed down compared with the previous month, especially at the end of the month, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is even lower. When nitrogen fertilizer and compound fertilizer enter into the winter off-season period, the market purchase quantity drops obviously.

This week, some enterprises in Shandong Province, the main production area, maintained stability, some of them fell by 50 yuan / ton, and the price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, there is a surplus of ammonia in some parts of Shandong Province. In particular, some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the shipping pressure of enterprises is increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable. At the end of the week, the mainstream quotation in Shandong Province was 2750-2850 yuan / ton.

This week, the liquid ammonia in North China also fell slightly. The lack of demand led to the current ammonia volume hoarding and the price falling. The shipment pressure increased significantly. There were many downstream stoppages. At the end of the week, the main quotation in North China was 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Arab States has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. At the weekend, the mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2770-2850 yuan / ton.

This week, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere, and weak operation, with the mainstream quotation of 2700 yuan / ton in Henan Province.

III. future forecast

In the future, the liquid ammonia data division of the Business Association believes that the market may continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions and the slowdown in downstream procurement, and the market is expected to remain low next week.

In November, the price of domestic rare earth market was up and down. Influenced by domestic policies, the price of domestic heavy rare earth market kept rising, while the price of light rare earth market kept falling. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on November 29, the rare earth index was 336 points, the same as yesterday, 66.40% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 23.99% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of November 29, the average price of neodymium was 360000 yuan / ton, down 2.04% in November; the average price of dysprosium was 2075000 yuan / ton, up 2.47% in November; the average price of praseodymium was 650000 yuan / ton, down 1.52% in November. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 284500 yuan / ton, down 2.40% in November; dysprosium oxide is 1630000 yuan / ton, up 6.19% in November; praseodymium oxide is 335000 yuan / ton, down 5.63% in November; neodymium oxide is 286500 yuan / ton, down 2.39% in November. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 360000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.40% in November; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1620000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.54% in November.

In November, the price trend of dysprosium terbium series of heavy rare earth rebounded and rose. Myanmar continued to pass customs, the supply pattern of domestic heavy rare earth market changed, and the domestic supply was normal. In addition, the domestic demand rose in recent years, and the domestic price rose. In recent years, the domestic policy was still in fermentation, which brought some good expectations for the domestic heavy rare earth market.

In November, the price of light rare earth in the rare earth market changed frequently. In November, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products decreased slightly, the price of neodymium oxide and praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased. In addition, the downstream demand for light rare earth did not improve significantly. The downstream merchants replenished a small amount of goods on demand, and the actual transaction price was still at a low level, and there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. In the first ten days of November, the market price of light rare earth dropped successively, but in November The market price of light rare earth rose in the last ten days, but the increase was very limited. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in buying after the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers control the sales reasonably, but the demand of the downstream is not changed in the near future, and most rare earth prices are stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, recently the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that in 2019, the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while in 2018, the quota of rare earth mining was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and in 2019, this The data is the highest since 2014. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the domestic market price of heavy rare earth is rising.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong increased from 6883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.97%, down 22.78% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol rose slightly this week, with the commodity index of 51.10 on November 22.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of the mainstream octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly increased: Hualu Hengsheng’s factory quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7050 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 7296.15 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7235.77 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.83%, down 13.24% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.23%, down 20.32% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In late November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and at present, the octanol inventory in Shandong was low, and the delivery was tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late November may be in low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, as of November 21, the market price of propylene oxide rose, with an average price of 10033.33 yuan / ton, up 0.67% compared with that on November 20, and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China on November 21 was 9800-10400 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market price of propylene oxide rose steadily on the 21st. The overall supply of propylene oxide market has been reduced, there is no pressure on delivery, the inventory is low, and the downstream just needs to purchase. On the 21st, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was 10100 yuan / ton, and that in East China mainstream market was 10400 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 9500 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

Industry chain: the market in the upstream propylene Shandong region picked up slightly on the 21st, and the current market turnover is still around 7100-7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7200 yuan / ton. At present, the crude oil market has risen significantly, and the polypropylene market has recovered. It is expected that the propylene market price may increase in recent days. On the 21st, the focus of downstream polyether market negotiation rose.

3. Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, upstream liquid chlorine slightly pushed up, propylene price slightly rebounded, limited cost support for propylene oxide, and the price rise of propylene oxide supported by the market spot is not good, but the downstream just needs to purchase. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by rigid finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the start-up of main plant devices.

I. price trend

PS market atmosphere is active and the market shows a slight rise. The demand enthusiasm of downstream factories has improved. Most traders are still good at dealing with the current market. In terms of price, the mainstream price of GPPS is 9200-10600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips is 10200-11400 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS is 9250 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9500 yuan / ton. The market trading atmosphere improved.

III. future forecast

Most of the PS market quotations were stable, and some were raised. The purchase intention of downstream plants is general, and the actual turnover is limited. The enthusiasm of the downstream is still good, and the market lacks favorable stimulation. It is expected that PS market will be narrow and weak in consolidation and operation.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic isomeric xylene market rebounded steadily this week, up about 2.55% due to the support of low port inventory and the rebound of international oil price.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6300-6350 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory remained low, about 18000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.18% at sight, Brent futures up 1.21%, WTI futures down 0.66% and Dubai futures up 2.73%.

In the downstream, PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week was temporarily stable, while the external price rose slightly, the price was about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China, and it is expected that the short-term PX market price will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price rebounded slightly this week. With the support of cost and the increase of factory equipment maintenance, PTA commencement is at a low level, and it is expected that PTA will remain mainly in shock consolidation in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price was temporarily stable, with the quotation at 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene fell in shock, and it is expected that the weak market of o-benzene will be adjusted in the future.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. In general, toluene market is expected to continue the shock correction trend next Tuesday.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The quotation is 306.67 yuan / ton, down 44.99% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid was temporarily stable this week, with a commodity index of 47.73 on November 15

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 320 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

(II) industrial chain:

In the near future, the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere in the downstream monoammonium market is not good, the trading volume is light, and the trading volume of new orders is not ideal. The market of diammonium is also low and consolidated, and the downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price is temporarily stable, and the downstream construction is generally started, and the product trend tends to be stable under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to be flat.

I. price trend:

On November 17, crude benzene commodity index was 66.76, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.36% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 70.09% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (11.11-11.15), the domestic crude benzene market was up. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4131.67 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 4263.33 yuan / ton, up 3.19%.

Domestic market: the crude benzene market price was increased this week. As of Friday, the mainstream market price was 4200-4400 yuan / ton, 150-200 yuan / ton higher than last week. This week, the external market of pure benzene rebounded slightly, and the supply of pure benzene market was in short supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased this week, and the demand for crude benzene has increased to a certain extent, which supports the crude benzene market. The bidding price in the main production areas has increased this week.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8. Pure benzene: at the beginning of the week, the market demand for pure benzene was weak and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, oil prices may continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of coking industry has been improved, the support surface of hydrogenated benzene is strong, and the power of pure benzene follow-up belt is still strong. In addition, the port inventory is low, and the spot market supply is tight, which has strong support for the bottom of pure benzene. The downstream support is limited, and the price of crude benzene in the future is mainly consolidated, with weak increase.

I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell slightly this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 6205 yuan / ton, 0.55% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel was 6380 yuan / ton, 0.29% lower than that of last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil price fluctuates in a narrow range. On November 18, the domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to increase, but the increase is only expected to be 60 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic refined oil market as a whole has a stable operation.

Industrial chain: this week, international crude oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Although OPEC countries are expected to continue to expand the scale of production reduction, U.S. crude oil inventory growth, production hit a record high, coupled with a slowdown in global economic growth. The international crude oil market still has no breakthrough direction, and the international crude oil price keeps stable operation.

Market: the stable price of international crude oil market cannot boost the domestic refined oil market. Moreover, the gasoline market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption, and there is no support from good news such as holidays. The gasoline market continues to perform flat. The diesel market continues to support diesel due to the phenomenon of construction, engineering, etc., so the overall delivery of diesel is better than gasoline. In addition, this week, the maintenance of refined oil units is less, the operating rate continues to rise, and the supply is more sufficient, which hinders the price rise of domestic refined oil market.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, thinks that at present, the international crude oil market is dominated by volatile operation, and has not yet found a breakthrough direction. In November, the market demand for gasoline and diesel oil was flat, and the market price of refined oil is expected to fall steadily next week.