In 2020, China’s crude oil imports will grow rapidly, and Saudi Arabia will continue to be the largest source of imports. Customs data show that in 2020, China’s crude oil imports were 542.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; the import value was 1221.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%.

In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and OPEC production reduction, the international oil price will drop sharply. “China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, and low oil prices have led to an increase in crude oil imports.” Han Zhengji, an analyst with jinlianchuang crude oil, said that with the demand of China’s economic development, crude oil imports have maintained a steady growth. In 2020, the international crude oil futures continued to fall at the beginning of the year, and maintained a range shock trend after a slight rebound in the middle of the year. In the first quarter of 2020, the impact of the epidemic plus the OPEC + production crisis led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices. After the second quarter, international crude oil futures prices continued to decline, the weakest performance in nearly 30 years. In early May, OPEC +’s record production reduction of 9.7 million B / D was officially implemented, and the implementation of production reduction in various countries was good, and oil prices began to rebound. In the second half of the year, the news of the crude oil market was mixed, but the bad demand limited the upward space of oil price, and the oil price basically maintained the range fluctuation trend.

In the first half of 2020, the sharp drop of oil price will reduce the import cost, and the import volume of crude oil will reach record high again and again. In the second half of the year, the international oil price rebounded, and the storage pressure appeared after the arrival of crude oil, so the import volume of crude oil decreased.

In 2020, China’s crude oil imports increased year-on-year, but the import amount decreased year-on-year. This is mainly due to the drop in international oil prices, especially the sharp drop in international crude oil futures prices in the first half of the year, and the drop in spot prices, which has reduced the cost of crude oil import.

In 2020, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Brazil, Angola, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, the United States and Norway are the top ten source countries of China’s crude oil imports. Among them, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil import volume was about 84.92 million tons, about 1.69 million barrels / day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, surpassing Russia by a small margin.

In 2020, Russia will export about 83.57 million tons of crude oil to China, about 1.67 million barrels per day, up 7.6% year on year. “Compared with Saudi Arabia, Russia is more flexible in logistics and transportation, and has more advantages in geographical location. In 2020, Russia’s crude oil export growth will be higher than Saudi Arabia.” Han Zhengji said.

In 2020, Iraq will remain China’s third largest supplier of crude oil. Iraq has become one of the main beneficiaries of the severe US sanctions, which have seriously affected the oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, the crude oil producing countries. In 2020, Iraq’s oil exports to China increased by 16.1% year on year, reaching 60.12 million tons.

Han Zhengji predicted that in 2021, on the one hand, the market has experience in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the demand for crude oil will not decline significantly; on the other hand, considering that the current crude oil price has rebounded from the low point, the cost of crude oil import will increase to a certain extent, and China’s crude oil import may maintain a steady growth trend.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the overall external price of ethylene is on a downward trend recently. On January 19, the price was US $1050.50/ton, and on January 27, the average price of ethylene was US $1020.25/ton, down 3.34%. The current price is down 0.02% month on month, and the current price is up 20.99% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $920-930 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $892-900 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 26th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1118-1129 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1132-1141 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fluctuates greatly. As of the 26th, the price is 650-661 U.S. dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia shows a downward trend on the whole, with occasional rise, but soon the price falls again, with a large overall decline.

International: on January 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States dropped slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $52.61/barrel, down US $0.16. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was 55.64 US dollars / barrel, down 0.24 US dollars. International oil prices closed down slightly on Tuesday, mainly because the number of new cases of global epidemic continues to rise and the recovery of market fuel demand is expected to cool down, but the news of the explosion in Saudi Arabia limited the decline of oil prices.

In the near future, the styrene market as a whole fell. Crude oil fell, pure benzene narrowed, ethylene weakness fell, styrene cost support surface was acceptable, night styrene continued to reduce positions downward. Last week, the import source was obviously low, the port inventory accumulation was slow, the operation rate of domestic styrene rose, and the supply on site was good. On the downstream side, as the downstream plants gradually enter the production reduction or shutdown period in the last ten days of ABS, the demand for styrene shrinks again. EPS and PS need to be observed. Generally speaking, with the advent of seasonal off-season, the demand support of the three downstream plants is not strong. And according to market news, next week, the main port’s arrival volume is around 50000 tons, and the arrival volume is too much. If there is no closure and other accidents, the main port will accumulate again. It is expected that in the short term, the market will once again suppress the profit of styrene production, and styrene may be adjusted in a weak way.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, analysts have different estimates of changes in US crude oil inventory, the crude oil market is waiting for us oil inventory data, the international oil price fluctuates slightly, and the cost support is general. Therefore, business society data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

1、 Price trend

According to the business community block list data, this week’s aniline price is mainly stable consolidation. On January 24, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable this week, at 4650 yuan / ton (4500 yuan / ton in parts of North China). During the week, although the news of crude oil and external market was good, the inventory of downstream raw materials was high, and the enthusiasm of stock preparation and purchase was not high; moreover, the spot price of domestic pure benzene fell due to the impact of the low price of northern hydrogenation benzene. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 5000 tons lower than last week. News within the week Brunei Hengyi benzene plant failure, is expected to have a certain impact on later shipping. On Sunday (January 24), the price of pure benzene was 4180-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4490 yuan / ton), down 16 yuan / ton or 0.36% from last week.

The price of nitric acid this week was lower than that of last week. On Friday (January 22), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2016.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.63%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 27.37%.

At present, the price trend of aniline has little correlation with pure benzene, which is mainly affected by supply and demand. Part of the aniline plants maintain low load operation, and the quantity released from the spot is not high, so the supply and demand are stable. The price of aniline was stable in the next week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, affected by public health events and rain and snow weather in the north, many downstream units are expected to stop, and the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Downstream styrene is expected to continue to decline next week, pure benzene or drag with the fall. However, crude oil, high support outside the market, pure benzene is expected to decline little. Continue to pay attention to the situation of stock preparation and shutdown in the downstream before the festival, as well as the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.

Continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand side, the operation load of aniline plant and the new aniline shipment of Jiangsu Fuqiang new materials.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of o-benzene was stable this week, while the domestic o-benzene market was strong and temporarily stable. As of January 25, Sinopec’s quotation for o-xylene was 4700.00 yuan / ton, which was more stable than the price of o-xylene of 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (January 18).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene fluctuated this week, the cost of o-benzene increased, and the power of o-benzene increased.

Trend of downstream products

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride rose in a volatile manner this week, the market of phthalic anhydride recovered slightly, the market of o-benzene was good, and the price of o-benzene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose, the cost of o-xylene rose, and the power of o-xylene rise increased; the price of downstream phthalic anhydride rebounded and warmed, the demand of o-xylene rose, and the power of o-xylene price rise increased. On the whole, the future of o-benzene rising momentum increased, o-benzene market stronger.

Bisphenol a market continued to soar this week. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market was offered at the beginning of this week 13033 yuan / ton, closing at 16583 yuan / ton on Thursday, up 27.24% this week. Near the weekend, the market offer was 16500-16800 yuan / ton. However, with the price rising, although the supply is relatively tight, it is difficult for the downstream to accept it. The terminal small orders just need to follow up, buying gas is down, and the total turnover is limited.

After the sharp rise and fall at the end of 2020, many traders suffered serious losses. From the point of view of mentality, the sharp rise this time was the aspiration of the cargo holders. At that time, the epidemic situation in northern China was aggravating, and it was close to the end of the year, and the mentality was under pressure. Most of the traders actively shipped goods and actively sold their sources of goods. After a round of selling, the market gradually stabilized, and when the purchasing heat in the downstream increased, the supply of goods in the market became more stable Serious tension, the most obvious performance this week, which is the main reason for the three-day surge of domestic bisphenol a market this week.

With the increase of terminal demand, the epoxy resin market is the first to push up, which is another important reason to pull the bisphenol a market to stop falling and soaring. Near the end of the new year and with Limited Logistics in case of epidemic situation, the terminal market is afraid to go up in the later stage, and the procurement is concentrated. The coating industry is recovering rapidly. The epoxy resin market is also going up from 20000 yuan / ton after the New Year holiday to 25000-25500 yuan / ton at present, with a good rise. The factory orders are in short supply, and the terminal can only queue up to pick up the goods. After the downstream epoxy resin market continued to rise, the plant operation rate increased and the demand for bisphenol A increased.

The plant stopped suddenly, so as to take this opportunity to advocate bisphenol A to take the up express. On Monday, Sinopec Mitsui’s 120000 T / a bisphenol a plant was shut down, which gave a certain positive support to the market holders. The market was pushed up along with it. Although there was a little hype, it was also true that the terminal industry chain went up and the demand increased.

The upward trend of raw materials supported the bisphenol a market well. Firstly, the phenol market rose from 5925 yuan / T to 6333 yuan / T this week, up 6084%; while the acetone market, taking East China market as an example, rose from 5900 yuan / T to 6900 yuan / T, with the middle high point reaching 7100-7200 yuan / T. Strong support of raw material upward cost, good support for bisphenol a market.

At present, the downstream liquid resin market is gradually stable, and after a round of sharp rise, BPA terminal rejects high prices, just needs small orders to follow up, and the market is gradually stable. BPA market is expected to adjust and operate in the range of 16300-16700 yuan / ton.

In the middle of January, propane market continued to rise, mainly in price, which was narrower than that at the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 5062.50 yuan / ton on January 10 and 5262.50 yuan / ton on January 15, up 3.95% in the week and 26.58% compared with January 1. As of January 15, the market prices of propane in China are as follows:

15 Jan 2005

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 5200-5250 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4800-5250 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 5100-5400 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 5050-5200 yuan / ton

In the middle of January, the center of gravity of propane market continued to move up. Although the increase rate was lower than that at the beginning of this month, the average price of Shandong market has exceeded 5000 yuan / ton, and the factory price has been increased slightly in a row within a week. The market transaction atmosphere is good. The main factors supporting the continued price rise this week are as follows: firstly, the positive effect brought by the sharp rise of CP in January on the market still exists, and the cost of imported gas is high. Secondly, the international crude oil market is volatile, and the news is favorable to the market mentality. The downstream market is more active, and the manufacturers ship smoothly. The northern market was driven by the favorable situation, and the prices were continuously raised in the week; the southern market was relatively weak, and the market was mostly stable, and the upper middle class was the main market.

In January, Saudi Aramco CP announced that there were all increases in propane and butane. Propane was US $550 / T, up US $100 / T from last month; butane was US $530 / T, up US $70 / T from last month.

At present, the weather is colder, the demand of terminal market is better, the downstream market is more active in replenishment, and the high cost of inlet gas has brought some support to the market. However, the price of propane market rises too fast in January, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, and the mentality is cautious. On Friday, some manufacturers’ prices weakened, and it is expected that there will be insufficient power to continue to rise in the short term, or there may be a small drop.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the plasticizer DOP market lost its support in January, and the DOP price continued to fall. As of January 12, the price of DOP was 9475.00 yuan / ton, down 8.45% from 10350.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that after the new year’s day, the octanol price plummeted, the DOP raw material cost fell, the DOP rising power lost support, and the downward pressure increased.

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that after the new year’s day, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP decreased significantly, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that after the new year’s day, the PVC price continued to fall, the demand for DOP decreased, the downstream market of DOP was weak, and the bad news of plasticizer DOP market increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that after the new year’s day, the prices of DOP raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride plummeted, the DOP market lost its support, and the downward pressure of DOP increased; the downstream PVC market continued to decline, the demand for DOP was insufficient, and the rising power of DOP in the future was insufficient. The Spring Festival is just around the corner, and the demand for DOP will rise slightly in the near future. On the whole, the market of the industry chain plummeted, the downward pressure of DOP increased, the Spring Festival is coming, the short-term demand of DOP is picking up, which has a certain support for the DOP market. It is expected that the decline of DOP will continue in the future, but the decline will slow down.

The international crude oil rose sharply, the demand for asphalt for terminal road works remained low, and the domestic asphalt market was stable as a whole, which was less affected by the crude oil price. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the asphalt price on January 8 was 2480 yuan / ton, up 0.71% from the beginning of the week.

This week, the international crude oil market was frequently bullish. The OPEC agreement was reached and Saudi Arabia reduced production by an additional 1 million barrels per day. Data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory fell. This week, the price of WTI crude oil exceeded the $50 / barrel mark, with a weekly increase of 7.67%, and the price of Brent crude oil increased by 8.09%.

International oil prices rose sharply, but domestic asphalt market demand remained low. The demand for asphalt in East China, South China and southwest China has not changed much, and basically remains stable; the road demand in Northeast and Northwest China has basically ended, and some refineries are ready to produce coking; the terminal projects in South China are still in a rush state, which has a certain support for the rigid demand for asphalt; the operating rate of asphalt plant has decreased slightly this week, and the reduction is mainly concentrated in Shandong, North China and Northeast China. Production reduction areas are mainly lack of asphalt demand areas. The market supply of finishing asphalt is sufficient, which has a certain suppressive effect on asphalt price.

Analysts from business news agency believe that with the advance of vaccination and the favorable support of production reduction in OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, oil prices are expected to rise further. However, the lack of effective demand support in the asphalt market can not boost the market price. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will stabilize or fall.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6975 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.36% in the week, a rise of 0.72% month on month, and a rise of 26.36% year on year.

In terms of regional market conditions, the market in Northeast China is weak, the market in East China and Shandong is weak, the market in Henan is down, the market in South China and Guangxi is on the lookout, the turnover in Dongguan corn area is light, the turnover in Anhui area is average, the market in Sichuan area is stable, and the turnover in Yunnan area is fair.

From the perspective of raw material corn, from the perspective of raw material corn, this week, the corn market maintained a high volatility, because of the market’s expectation of the gap between production and demand. However, there are still some uncertain factors such as policy regulation, large increase of import volume, and large increase of corn output in the new season, which will affect the fluctuation of market price. From the perspective of demand, the demand for liquor has ended, the demand for chemical industry for ethyl acetate has continued to decline this month, the demand for ethanol has continued to decrease, the market turnover is light, and other downstream industries basically maintain just need to purchase.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

About 7500 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

Corn alcohol in Heilongjiang Province: 6250-6400 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

In Guangxi, the price of honey alcohol is 7150-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6750-7000 yuan / ton

In Guangxi area, ﹣ 7600-7650 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol

About 7200-7300 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

In Guangdong Province, ﹣ 7800 yuan / ton of anhydrous cassava ethanol including tax

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 6950-6980 yuan / ton, including tax

In Henan Province, ﹣ 7600-7650 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 6850-6900 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7200-7500 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ￥ 7600-7650 / T

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6800-6900 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn yield is about 6950-7000 yuan / ton

About 6900 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

Anhui Province: 7750-7850 yuan / ton

In terms of logistics, the current freight rate is rising. Heilongjiang Shandong freight is 450 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Northern Jiangsu 560 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Baoqing Northern Jiangsu 600-610 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Shandong 500-560 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton.

The price of raw material corn will continue to maintain a high level, corn ethanol start-up will continue to maintain a low level under the pressure of cost, the plant will not shut down in winter, and the order delivery will be basically maintained in the short term, and the price will remain stable. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

This month, the domestic BDO market froze operation, the overall stability consolidation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12750 yuan / ton on December 1, and 12800 yuan / ton on December 31, with a price increase of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 30.67%.

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in December and the listing price in January:

Enterprise, settlement in December (bulk delivered), listing in January (bulk delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, $12800 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $13300 / T East China, and $13500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. $12650 / T East China, 12800 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered) 13300 / T East China, 13500 / T South China (bulk water to be delivered)

This month, the domestic BDO market finished at a high level. The cost support is strong, the profit space is compressed, and the factory supports the market. BDO plant operation is stable, downstream start-up decline, high price conflict, negotiation game, center of gravity deadlock.

In terms of units, Henan Hecheng coal company stopped in mid November for maintenance until December 10, and the products came out on December 13; the impact of limited gas in Sichuan Tianhua and Chongqing Jianfeng was reduced to about 70%; Yanchang oil company started operation unsteadily within a month, and the load was maintained at about 30-40%; Dongyuan load was maintained at about 80%; Shaanxi Shanhua chemical’s 100000 ton unit was in full load operation, and the 30000 ton unit was planned to restart in early January 2021; Shaanxi black cat stopped at the end of the month Replace the catalyst.

Downstream, downstream PBT: Kanghui line 1 maintenance, Kaixiang shutdown maintenance on November 15, no short-term restart expected. Demand is expected to increase next month. Pu slurry, TPU started to decline, just need to enter the market. Other downstream companies also have weak intention to prepare goods before the festival. On the whole, there is no obvious change in the demand side next month.

Next month, the raw material side of the rise and fall of each other, cost support still exists. And the factory is listed in a high position, and the attitude of supporting the market is obvious. The supply side is expected to increase the inventory, which is generally supported by the good; while the demand side is mainly contract procurement, and the spot just needs a small order to cover the position, which has strong resistance to high prices. BDO business analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will still be high consolidation.