According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, due to the prominent impact of supply and demand, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. At the beginning of this week (6.1), the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2416 yuan / ton. At the end of this week (6.5), the average price fell to 2240 yuan / ton, down 7.31% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2200-2300 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2250-2300 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 2000 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2150-2250 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, about 2250-2350 yuan / ton; in South China, about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

Production trends of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Normal production of Yankuang Guotai 110

Hualu Hengsheng 50 normal production

About 80% of BP 50 in Yangzi

Celanese 120 recovered to about 70%

Jiangsu Thorpe 120 started construction to about 80%

Hebei Jiantao 50 normal production

Tianjin Bohua 35 normal production

Henan Shunda 40 normal production

About 80% of Henan Longyu 50

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi extends maintenance for one month from May 6, 2015

Shanghai Huayi 70.5.23 parking and maintenance for about 20 days

About 80% of Anhui Huayi construction started

Dalian Hengli 35 normal production

 
The main reason for the sharp decline of domestic acetic acid price this week is that the market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand. At the end of May, the overhaul of Huadong Huabei plant was completed, and production gradually resumed. As of this week, Hebei Jiantao’s 500000 T / a plant has been in normal production, Jiangsu Thorpe’s 1.2 million T / a plant has been restored to 80%, and the industry’s overall operating rate has been restored to 60% – 70%. The spot supply in the market has increased significantly, while the downstream market is still dominated by the digestion of early-stage contracts, with few new orders In the early stage, the traders copied the bottom and actively sold the stocks. In order to prevent the excessive price of stocks in the later stage, the price of acetic acid fell passively.

Secondly, the long-term downturn in cost and demand is also an important factor affecting the decline of acetic acid price. The low price of methanol market has been adjusted, and the enterprise has recovered after the completion of maintenance. In addition to the high port inventory, the pressure on the supply side of methanol market has increased dramatically. However, at present, methanol has been at a historical low level, some enterprises are on the edge of loss, with strong intention to hold prices, and limited space for reduction. At present, the average price of Shandong is about 1612 yuan / ton. Domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are close to the cost line after continuous weakness. They are weak and stable in the week. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. The downstream demand is still sluggish and the transaction atmosphere is light.

Affected by the weak operation of methanol, the market performance of international acetic acid market continues to be depressed. At present, the Asian acetic acid market is 265-320 USD / ton, the North American market is about 450 USD / ton, and the European market is about 550 EUR / ton

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, at present, the domestic acetic acid production enterprises start smoothly, the market spot supply is sufficient, the situation of low downstream demand is weak and hard to change, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the industry is increasingly prominent, and the negative factors are obvious. With the accumulation of inventory, the behavior of bidding among enterprises is obvious, and it is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will be dominated by weak operation in a short time.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded slightly this week, with the average domestic price of about 3640 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 1.68% on last week, according to the data of the business club’s large list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the market demand has improved, and the transaction is fair. This week, the international crude oil overall shows a small fluctuation trend. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the new opening of the main economic weight and the initial signs of rising gasoline demand in the United States, Russia indicated its willingness to extend the production reduction. However, the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventory announced this week, as well as investors’ concerns about the tension in Global trade relations, led to the overall trend of international crude oil shocks this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near its high in the past two months, so as to prevent the trend of fluctuation and fall that may occur at any time. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 1.28%, Brent futures slightly fell 0.14%, WTI futures rose 2.44%, and Dubai futures rose 2%.

On the downstream side, TDI saw a slight increase in the market. At present, 10800-11000 yuan / ton is the reference for domestic delivery of goods with tickets, 11300-11500 yuan / ton is the reference for Shanghai delivery of goods with tickets. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about $456 / ton for FOB South Korea and $476 / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be adjusted next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the weak and stable operation of domestic soda ash this week is mainly. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1363.33 yuan / ton. On April 25, the light soda ash commodity index was 75.04, flat with yesterday, down 36.33% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic soda price is mainly weak and stable. The market of soda ash in East China is stable with light market price of about 1200-1380 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1300-1400 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1250-1350 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%.

In terms of demand: the domestic soda ash market is in overall consolidation operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. The total information of the industry is still more than 1.6 million. The overall market atmosphere of soda ash is not good, and the downstream market transaction follow-up is weak. In recent years, the maintenance and reduction of domestic soda enterprises have led to the decrease of soda output and inventory. However, the overall change of the demand side is not big. Due to the impact of the environment, the downstream procurement is not hot, and the form of oversupply is still severe. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although the manufacturer plans to reduce the inventory of parking and maintenance, the overall transaction is still average, but considering that the price of soda ash is near the cost line, it is comprehensively expected that the weak and stable operation of soda ash will be the main one in the short term.

The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upper reaches of the river has declined, the production cost of aluminum fluoride has been reduced, and the factory price of aluminum fluoride has been lowered by some aluminum fluoride manufacturers such as Jiaozuo Minli industry. According to the data of business agency, the price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 9066 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 8833 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with the price down 2.57%.

Domestic fluorite spot supply increased, but the commodity market was not good, fluorite prices fell sharply, upstream cost price plummeted, which had a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the hydrofluoric acid market price was greatly affected. Fluorite fell by about 7% and hydrofluoric acid by about 10% in early May. The downstream domestic aluminum consumption performance is relatively stable, the domestic aluminum social inventory continues to move down, and the price slightly rises about 4%, which has little impact on aluminum fluoride.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream fell to a low level, there are signs of bottoming and rebounding, the domestic aluminum consumption situation is stable and positive, and aluminum fluoride price is expected to be stable and positive in June.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of POM (96) in Shandong over the weekend is 4333 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene is acceptable and the market demand is stable.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, general transaction, methanol market continues to decline; according to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 19, the domestic methanol market price is 1657 yuan / ton, the price is 6.62% lower than the same period last month, and the price is 27.30% lower than the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts believe that: affected by the decline of raw methanol, polyoxymethylene continues to be weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers increased from 2443.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2460.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.68%, down 9.45% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide rose this week, with the carbide commodity index at 64.45 on May 22.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week slightly increased: the price of this week’s calcium carbide offered by oveganeng is 2500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of this weekend’s calcium carbide offered by Shaanxi coal industry is 2400 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of this week’s calcium carbide offered by Inner Mongolia China United is 2330 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the price of this weekend’s calcium carbide offered by Ningxia Xingping is 2550 yuan / ton, Compared with the beginning of the week, the price is up 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2450 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2500 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable this week. At present, the quotation of small materials is 500 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 520 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 600 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 5830.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6025.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.34%, down 13.93% year on year. PVC price rose this week, the market began to rise, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm for calcium carbide is also high. Overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide price.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough. However, PVC market in the downstream is rising, and customers in the downstream are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise slightly in late May.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded slightly this week, of which the most obvious increase was polyester FDY, with a weekly increase of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, with an increase of 3.37% and 2.93% respectively.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: up and down on May 15, 2020, up and down on May 22, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 6006 6331 5.41% – 22.28%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5334 5514 3.37% – 29.97%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7045 7251 2.93% – 24.17%

At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester fdy150d / 96F and polyester fdy150d / 96F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are reported as 5400-5600 yuan / ton, 7000-7400 yuan / ton, and 6150-6450 yuan / ton respectively. The trend of cost end is strong, which further increases the market price focus of polyester filament, but the downstream replenishment is weak and cautious, so the increase is not very large.

The crude oil market, supported by the supply contraction exceeding expectations and the demand turning better, shows a pattern of fluctuating and rising prices. At the same time, this week, with 400000 tons of PTA units of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and 2.2 million tons of PTA units of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. entering into maintenance, the starting load of domestic PTA dropped to 87%. Overlay PTA supplier to buy back the spot again, multiple positive driven by PTA period spot price continued to surge. As of May 22, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% year-on-year, but on May 22, the price fell back and adjusted, down 1.99% one day. In terms of inventory, at the beginning of the year, the production capacity was put into production with high start-up rate, and the current social inventory is more than 3.5 million tons. In June, Zhongtai, Yisheng and Yizheng devices have maintenance plans, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May, which is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the continuous interest yield.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance from May 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to stop for maintenance for 12-15 days on June 5

From the perspective of the downstream textile market, the domestic and foreign trade markets have recovered to a certain extent since May, and the domestic demand has gradually recovered. The orders in the weaving market have slightly improved compared with the previous period, the goods are better than the previous period, the enthusiasm of manufacturers has increased, and the loom operating rate has risen by more than 62%. Some overseas countries announced the release of the seal, and the export was also quietly launched. It is reported that orders from Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been placed in succession recently. In terms of exports, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $21.361 billion, an increase of 38.43% month on month and 9.77% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 14.620 billion US dollars, up 49.36% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 6.739 billion US dollars, up 30.31% year on year. From January to April, China’s cumulative export of textiles and clothing was 66.626 billion US dollars, down 12.06% year on year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was 37.311 billion US dollars, up 2.90% year on year; the cumulative export of clothing was 29.308 billion US dollars, down 22.33% year on year.

Xia Ting, an analyst at business club, believes that with the strength of crude oil and the increase of PTA device maintenance, the polyester filament market is stable and rising driven by the favorable cost side. However, it is worth noting that PTA’s “high inventory, high processing costs, high operating rate” problem has not been fundamentally solved, and the market continues to rise under pressure. At the same time, the internal and external trade of the downstream terminal recovered slowly, and the order performance was not stable, and the raw material procurement remained rigid. If the follow-up orders could not be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction again could not be ruled out in late June, and the substantial recovery still needs to be observed. In the short term, near the end of the month, the terminal textile enterprises may face a wave of purchasing actions, which will still form a certain support for the price. The future market will still pay attention to the change of raw materials and demand end, or there is a possibility of falling.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of TDI market this week is stable, and the average price of East China market in this week is eleven thousand and thirty-three point three three Yuan / ton, compared with last weekend ten thousand Yuan / ton increase 10.33% , down from last year 33.13% 。

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic TDI market is running smoothly this week, and there are still divergences in the market mentality. The overall offer of the industry is inclined to the low-end range, and there is no lack of low-cost cash out and goods going. The downstream follow-up is not enough to buy gas. The trading atmosphere in the market is cold, and the transaction volume is insufficient, and the whole is mainly to digest the early inventory. As of the 15th, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in the East China market is 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10400-10600 yuan / ton; at present, due to the consolidation of the North China market, the shipping resistance of the operators is relatively large, and the transaction price tends to be low; the South China market is weak and waiting, downstream gas consumption, and transaction volume is insufficient.

Industrial chain: the upstream toluene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. With the recovery of the European and American economies, global demand is expected to improve. International crude oil futures are in a weak position, and effective guidance is given to the market. As of Friday, the domestic average price of toluene is about 3410 yuan / ton, down from last week 2.57% It is expected that the domestic toluene market will be put into operation later.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency: at present, the domestic RDI market is in narrow range consolidation, the listing of the factory side is up, the on-site offer is higher, but the downstream response is slightly flat, the whole is mainly to digest the early inventory, the shipping resistance of the industry is large, and the transaction volume is insufficient. It is expected that the TDI market will run in a period of turbulence in the later stage, and the company will pay attention to the plant policy news.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 482.5 yuan / ton, while the average market price in Shandong at the end of the week was about 487.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.04%. On May 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 70.14, the same as yesterday, 66.09% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 3.71% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is stable temporarily. The main factory price of 32% caustic soda is 470-530 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is low, the market atmosphere is poor, and the overall lack of downstream support. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will be more consolidated in the near future. The caustic soda in Jiangsu Province is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream alkali quotation of about 630-670 yuan / ton. The overall inventory is not high, and the export is increasing. The price of the enterprise is rising, which is expected to be more strong in the later stage. In Henan area, 32% of the main caustic soda price is 1600-1800 yuan / ton (converted into 100 yuan), and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the caustic soda price will be consolidated in the near future. According to data statistics, the output of caustic soda in China from January to February 2020 is 5.237 million tons, a decrease compared with the same period last year.

Industrial chain: flake alkali market quotation: Inner Mongolia market 1750-1800 yuan / ton, Shandong market 2000-2100 yuan / ton, East China market 2050-2100 yuan / ton, Xinjiang market 1450-1550 yuan / ton. The start-up of caustic soda enterprises is maintained at about 70-80%, with little change in supply. From the perspective of demand, the loss of alumina industry is still bad for the price of caustic soda. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate of paper printing and dyeing industry may be reduced.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), two kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising and falling. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (5.08%), PVC (4.32%), calcium carbide (0.72%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 4.66%), caustic soda (- 3.59%). This week’s average was 0.37%.

According to analysts of business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, alumina continues to lose money, prices in some Southern markets are relatively stable, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong begins to be stalemated, but it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.

This week (5.11-15), the domestic liquid ammonia Market slightly adjusted, the market is up and down mutually, most manufacturers reported stable, some manufacturers affected by the inventory pressure, slightly reduced the price, there are downward actions in the middle of the week, the range is 50-100 yuan / ton. Shandong market rebounded slightly from the previous week, with a limited range, mainly due to the low ammonia volume in the region, or the decline of some manufacturers’ unit output. From the early trend, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rebound in March as the domestic manufacturers ushered in the return to work season, with the demand picking up, and the growth rate in the northern region once exceeded 15%. However, the market reversed in April and may, and the rebound market has stopped abruptly. At present, most regions show a trend of high-level decline. Since May, the market has been mainly stable, keeping a narrow range of shocks, and adjusting the range within 100 yuan. On the one hand, the high start-up rate of manufacturers in the early stage has accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the manufacturers are willing to de inventory. On the other hand, the spring farming season has passed, and the downstream demand has stabilized, unable to continue to drive the rise of the liquid ammonia market. The procurement strength of downstream nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers has slowed down obviously, and most of them focus on demand procurement. At present, the supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure is still there, the peak season has passed, the demand is stable, the market may enter a relatively bottleneck period, and it is unlikely that the price of liquid ammonia will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.