Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 17th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 13570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was weak and stable. In terms of the spot market, prices for various brands were strong last week. However, due to limited release of buyer demand, there was still pressure on prices. However, the current price space for silicon factories is limited. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; However, the futures market is under pressure. Although the macro environment improved at the beginning of last week, it had no significant impact on the industrial silicon market. In addition, downstream polycrystalline silicon continued to have a weak market, and the market performance was very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon operated weakly and steadily last week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13200~13300 yuan/ton, with an average of 13250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14050 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of May 16th, there were 335 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 44.85% and an increase of 11 furnaces compared to the previous week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan continued to resume production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.

In terms of inventory:

Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 17th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 379000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 106000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio, and the social delivery warehouse was 273000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply of silicon materials and high corporate inventories, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is significant, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage; At the same time, the United States imposing tariffs on photovoltaic cells and launching a dual anti investigation into Southeast Asia are not conducive to China’s photovoltaic cell exports. The current demand for terminal installation is relatively sluggish, and the competition between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage. The demand for polysilicon is worrying.

Last week, the prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable, and the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC site is mild, with the bottom of the organic silicon fluctuating, and the enterprise’s operation is stable. The procurement of industrial silicon is mainly based on demand. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the aluminum market is relatively optimistic, but there has been no active hoarding of industrial silicon procurement. Intermediary traders have reported that it is mainly based on rigid demand procurement, and prices are still being held down.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the southwest region continued to resume production last week, with production increasing gradually during the flood season. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the price of polycrystalline silicon has declined and the market for organic silicon has stabilized, showing signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. However, the release of demand is weak, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side, with strong supply and weak demand, is bearish on silicon prices. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is support on the cost side, which is temporarily stable. Currently, industrial silicon prices are in the bottom range, and it is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The average price of isopropanol in China on Monday was 8930 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 8900 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.34% during the week.

The market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. This week’s market situation is light, and downstream buyers are cautious and cautious. The upstream acetone price has been lowered, and the cost support for isopropanol is weak, with market prices following suit. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8500-8900 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 9000-9300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market has declined this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 8325 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8307.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. At present, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the trading atmosphere is not good.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week, with an overall decline. The average domestic propylene price on Monday was 6898.6 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 6788.6 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.59%. In the short term, there is not much change in supply and demand, and it is expected that propane will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, while the propylene market is declining. Cost support is weak, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will mainly operate steadily with a weak trend.

1、 Price trend: The PTFE market has maintained stable operation this week. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the market price of PTFE suspended pellets remained around 35000-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors: Recently, the market for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in the raw material market has risen, and the price of fluorite has continued to rise. The high cost side remains under pressure. As of May 16th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid (export) for Shengyishe was 14150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (13800.00 yuan/ton). The benchmark price of Yingyishe fluorite is 3781.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: There is no favorable phenomenon in the downstream market, and there is insufficient purchasing sentiment, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the polytetrafluoroethylene market is in a sustained downturn.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The polytetrafluoroethylene analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the high prices of raw materials will support, downstream demand will be weak and continue to be sluggish, and the polytetrafluoroethylene market will maintain stable operation.

Precious metal prices have once again strengthened

The price of precious metal gold strengthened again on May 9th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 10, 2024, the spot market price of gold was 549.41 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.93% compared to the average market price of 544.36 yuan/gram on the first day after the holiday (May 6).

The trend of precious metal silver is similar to that of gold, and it has also rebounded after the holiday, with a stronger increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average silver market price on May 10, 2024 was 7340.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.61% compared to the average silver market price of 7017 yuan/kg on the first day after the holiday (May 6).

Market driven logic once again

1. The geopolitical tension in both directions continues, with Israel’s advance into Rafah, the situation escalates, and the market’s risk aversion strengthens.

2. The direction of the interest rate reduction cycle remains unchanged. The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, while other economic data showed a weakening of US inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s biased stance, leading to a resurgence of interest rate reduction expectations in the market.

3. The net purchasing trend of central banks around the world remains unchanged, with the Bank of Korea announcing its purchase of gold in early May.

Short term precious metal prices may experience strong fluctuations

The previous game point was the contradiction between medium – and long-term trends and short-term super inflation. After a brief decline, the profit taking capital market weakened, and the market began to trade news of inflation and interest rate cuts with fluctuations. It is expected that precious metal prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3616 yuan/ton, and on May 4th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

The supply of domestically produced bauxite is still in a tight state. In the situation where there is a shortage of domestic ore, alumina plants choose to supplement imported ore to maintain production. Recently, there have been reports that the product quality has not met the standards, and the quality of imported mineral products is questionable, resulting in the inability to release alumina production capacity.

In terms of supply and demand

After the holiday, due to the low inventory of Shanxi Xin alumina large factory, the quotation was firm, and some intermediaries were under great pressure to execute long orders, forcing them to purchase spot goods at high prices, resulting in a rapid increase in market prices. The aluminum oxide inventory of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the north is already at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is evident. Large alumina factories in Shandong and Hebei are also maintaining long-term orders and have no surplus to sell spot goods to the market. Combined with the expected resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum plants in the southwest region in the second quarter, it is in a nationwide general upward trend.

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to rise next week, and we will pay attention to the resumption of enterprise production and changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the phenolic resin market is temporarily stable after the holiday. As of May 9th, the mainstream price of domestic phenolic resin (2123) was 10275 yuan/ton, an increase of 325 yuan or 3.27% compared to before the holiday, and a decrease of 300 yuan or 2.84% compared to April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Cost side: The concentrated release of bearish news in the early May crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil. International crude oil has experienced a significant decline. As of today, the mainstream price of phenol is 7995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan or 1.84% compared to May 1st. The inventory value of Jiangyin phenol port is 20000 tons, with weak cost support, but there is not much pressure on the supply of phenol traders.

Supply and demand side:

After the holiday, stability will be the main focus on the supply side, and downstream enterprises will start construction one after another. With abundant on-site inventory, the support from the demand side will gradually strengthen.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, the cost support is weak, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly rebounded. However, there is ample inventory, and it is expected that the phenolic resin market will be mainly weak in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to the upstream phenol market dynamics.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market fluctuated and rose in April, with prices of various wire drawing brands increasing narrowly. As of April 30th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7842.86 yuan/ton, up or down by 1.01% from the price level on April 1st.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In terms of PP raw materials, due to the influence of geographical tensions in the first half of this month, crude oil prices were adjusted after rising. Mid month demand for propylene rebounded, while at the end of the month, the cost side followed suit with a narrow range of fluctuations overall. Due to the boost from the external market, domestic propane achieved a mid month stop from falling and an increase. Methanol supply and demand are relatively balanced, and stocking demand is driving up the market in the second half of the month. Overall, the cost support for PP in April is still acceptable.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average load this month is around 74%, which is comparable to the level at the end of March. During the month, production lines of companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo underwent maintenance. However, some companies continued to undergo maintenance, leading to a decrease in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises has remained stable with a slight increase, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding at the end of the month are about 44%, 65%, and 58%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is not strong throughout the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has risen within a narrow range. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7725 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 1.31% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 0.32% compared to the same period last year. The main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material experienced a 1% decrease in load during the month, and the operating rate at the end of the month was around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and it is expected that the future market of fiber materials may be constrained by weak demand and consolidation operations.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this month. As of April 30th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8037.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.31%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.58%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the temperature will heat up in May, and the digestion of terminal products will slow down. Melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polypropylene market fluctuated slightly in April. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There has been a contraction in the supply of goods, but there is still an expectation of tightening in the future, and the supply pressure has partially eased. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and the stocking needs to maintain production. The pre holiday stocking volume on site is not significant. It is expected that the PP market will remain stagnant in the short term.

The nitrile rubber market slightly declined in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price was 15300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% from 15450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In April, the raw material of nitrile rubber, butadiene, slightly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber; The downstream rubber hoses, insulation foam and other industries of nitrile rubber have weak support for the low demand for nitrile. The operation of nitrile rubber plant has decreased, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber has been relieved; The market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly declined. As of April 30th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14200-14300 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17200 yuan/ton.

In April, the overall production of domestic nitrile rubber plants declined, and the Shunze plant is planned to restart and the Lanhua plant is planned to undergo maintenance in the later stage.

In April, the raw material butadiene slightly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile significantly increased, and the cost support for nitrile rubber strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 30th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41% from 9962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China slightly decreased to a low level of around 5.5%, while the production of rubber insulation foam decreased to around 5.5%. The demand for nitrile rubber was weakly supported by the rigid demand.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream construction remains at a low level, which has a negative impact on nitrile rubber; The pressure on the supply of nitrile rubber has slowed down, and with the planned maintenance of the nitrile unit in Lanhua from May to June, it is expected to provide some support for the market. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of tetrachloroethylene on April 30th was 5050 yuan/ton, and the average market price of tetrachloroethylene barrels on April 1st was 5150 yuan/ton. The market price of tetrachloroethylene decreased by 1.94% during the month, an increase of 21.2% compared to January.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the price of tetrachloroethylene continued to rise in the first quarter and the trend was relatively strong. The mainstream factory price was quoted at 5200-5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.61%. The market supply is tight, and distributors are keeping up with large factories to increase prices. Those with higher prices will receive. In the middle of the month, the price of tetrachloroethylene has stopped rising and fallen, with mainstream factory quotes of 4900-5200 yuan/ton. According to customs data, the import volume of tetrachloroethylene in March was 79.203 tons, and the export volume was 1651.77 tons. In the first quarter, the import volume increased by about 48% year-on-year, and the export volume decreased by about 7.28% year-on-year. The phenomenon of sufficient market supply is evident, domestic demand is weakening, the trading atmosphere is stable, downstream production is insufficient, on-demand procurement is insufficient, and the driving force for the price increase of tetrachloroethylene is insufficient, with a slight decline, but it remains at a high level until the end of the month and operates steadily.

The downstream refrigerant R125 market is operating steadily at a high level, with prices ranging from 42000 to 45000 yuan/ton. The refrigerant market continued to soar in the first quarter, with a slowdown in growth in April and insufficient operating rates. R125 is used to prepare refrigerants such as R404A, R407C, R410A, R507, etc. It is mainly used in industries such as air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and chillers. May is still the peak season for terminal air conditioning production, and summer is approaching. The demand for refrigeration equipment in the market is increasing, and the support for R125 demand is still strong, forming strong support for the price of tetrachloroethylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the demand side is running steadily at a high level, and the tetrachloroethylene market may maintain a high consolidation operation.

Aluminum prices rose in April

Aluminum prices fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30, 2024, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 20596.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% compared to the market average price of 19550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (4.1).

Strong cost support for rising alumina prices

In April, the price of alumina rose. On the one hand, due to the tight domestic supply side, the overall operating rate of alumina in April decreased month on month. Looking at different regions, the operating rate of alumina in Shanxi has significantly decreased, while the operating rate in Guangxi has rebounded; On the other hand, the expectation of tightening overseas supply has strengthened, and the spot price of overseas alumina has risen. It is reported that Alcoa’s Kwinana alumina plant is expected to shut down from the second quarter, and all production is planned to stop in the third quarter, involving a production capacity of 2.19 million tons per year.

Macroscopically favorable, non-ferrous sectors rise together

In March, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.8%, a significant increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry has shown an unexpected recovery. The domestic economy continued to develop well in the first quarter, with positive automobile production and sales data and strong demand expectations. Coupled with the rise of the non-ferrous sector and sector linkage, the sentiment was positive.

Overseas, the US inflation in March was higher than expected, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June weakened. Even the outlook for July seems more unstable. The year-on-year growth rate of the US PCE price index in March was 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5%. The month on month growth rate was 0.3%, which is in line with expectations and remains unchanged from the previous level, indicating continued inflation in the United States. But overall, it is in the path of interest rate cuts.

Increased cost side game in May under the expectation of abundant water season

In addition to the main raw material aluminum oxide, the cost of electricity is also the largest part of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 30-40% of the total cost. Gradually entering the rainy season, the cost of hydropower in Yunnan is expected to decrease. In terms of thermal power, we mainly focus on the price trend of thermal coal in May. Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in electricity costs in May.

Narrowing upward space for aluminum prices in May

At present, aluminum prices have seen a significant increase, and aluminum factory profits have widened. With the arrival of the abundant water period in May, Yunnan’s resumption of production will continue to advance, and the certainty of supply increase is strong. It is expected that the upward space for aluminum prices in May will narrow.