September ushered in the traditional sales peak season of the gas market, but the market showed the market was not prosperous in the peak season, and the overall trend of the gas market was weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the LPG market showed a continuous downward trend in September. On September 1, the average price of domestic LPG market was 3200.00 yuan / ton, and on September 24, the average price was 2876.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.10% in the month and a decrease of 24.30% compared with the same period last year. On September 1, the average price of domestic natural gas market was 2406.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on September 24 was 2406.67 yuan / ton. The price was flat at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 2.35%, and the price fell by 15.95% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall trend of LNG fell first and then rose. In the first half of September, natural gas first continued the decline in August and continued to be weak. Although the traditional off-season in August has passed and the traditional sales peak season in September has come, with the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the market supply has become more and more abundant, the situation of supply exceeding demand is still the same, the market trading is not warm and the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up, and the liquid price continues to decline.

Until the middle of September, the natural gas market ushered in a stop fall rise. Until September 24, the average market price had returned to the level before the fall at the beginning of the month. After the middle of the year, the liquid factory adjusted the quotation in a narrow range according to its own delivery situation, among which Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places have a strong atmosphere of adjustment, but the increase is not big. After continuous price reduction in the early stage, the current inventory pressure is not big, the shipment situation has been improved, the superimposed weather turns cool, the bad factors in the demand off-season gradually fade, the market trading is stable, and the market stops falling and rising. However, due to the abundant market supply, the liquid price has been restrained and there is no significant increase.

Looking at the LPG civil market, the trend is not as optimistic as that of natural gas. In September, the focus of the civil gas market shifted downward, and the range was more obvious. In the first ten days of September, the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) started its downward route, and the decline was more and more large. Due to the continuous weak decline of international crude oil, the news brought obvious pressure on the LPG market. With the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually drops, the weather turns cool, and the terminal demand is expected to increase. However, due to the market status, the terminal consumption is still weak, most of the downstream purchasing capacity is insufficient, and the shipping atmosphere of manufacturers is not good. In the LPG market supply changes little, the production is more adequate, it is difficult to change the decline. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure gradually increased. Continuously reduce the price and give priority to shipment. The prices of some manufacturers have fallen below 3000 yuan / ton.

In the middle of September, the LPG market finally ushered in the first rise in the month, but the market was too short and disappeared in only two days. Then the market went down again. Negative factors dominated the month, LPG market rebound fruitless, forced to go down. The main reason for this rebound comes from international crude oil. Due to the sharp decline of US crude oil and gasoline stocks, the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced the United States to block a large number of oil production, and international oil prices rose sharply. The news brought a significant boost to the market. Shandong LPG rose slightly in line with the trend, and rose 0.91% on September 16-18. But only two days after the rally, it went down again.

But the LPG market rebound failed, the main reason for its rebound failure is terminal demand. In September, with the arrival of autumn, the temperature gradually turns cool, and the terminal market is expected to improve. However, the demand this year is slower than that in previous years. The current September is about to pass, and the market has not yet improved significantly. The downstream demand has not increased, and the main consumption of inventory is more. Most of them are cautious and enthusiastic about entering the market. And the market supply of liquefied gas has little change, and the output is relatively sufficient. Due to the poor delivery situation and the gradual accumulation of inventory, manufacturers were forced to lower the price to stimulate downstream market entry.

According to the data, this year’s gas market is not better than last year’s market. The average price of LNG or LPG has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. The main reason for the sluggish gas market in September this year is that market supply exceeds demand. In the autumn, the weather gradually turns cool, and the terminal demand is expected to increase. However, in September, due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, more downstream enterprises need to be replenished, and the market atmosphere is general. Moreover, the current gas market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market is difficult to change.

However, the trend of natural gas market is clearer than that of liquefied gas (LPG) for civil use, with an increase in the latter ten days of September. As the weather turns cool, the effect of negative factors in the off-season is weakening, the market trading is relatively stable, and the shipment in some regions turns smooth, and the price rises. However, due to the uncertain trend of international crude oil price, the domestic LPG market has limited support. September will soon pass, and the LPG market is still weak. Market supply is sufficient, downstream demand has no obvious change, manufacturers’ shipment situation is flat, which brings obvious restraint to the rise. At present, the gas market is approaching the double festival. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream storage and replenishment demand, the market transaction atmosphere may be improved, and the yin10 is coming, the weather will continue to cool down, and the terminal demand is still expected to improve. It is expected that the gas market will still have upward trend in October.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1500 yuan / ton, and the average price at weekend was 1516 yuan / ton, with the quotation rising by 1.11%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1350-1400 yuan / ton, which was about 50 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1380 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1530 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid and 680 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid The price of concentrated nitric acid was lower than that of last week; the trading volume of partial nitric acid market was acceptable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream product of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province dropped by 1.06% in the week of 18th, with the mainstream market quotation of 2750-3000 yuan / ton; for the downstream TDI, the average market price of TDI in East China on the 15th was 17833.33 yuan / ton, up 22.71% compared with 14533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; and aniline at the downstream was up 5.93% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Supported by downstream products, nitric acid analysts of business club predict that the price of nitric acid will rise.

1、 Price trend

Price: the mainstream quotation of GPPS is 7650-8900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8700-9700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, traders wait for the opportunity, according to their own resources flexible goods. Downstream factories maintain the rigid demand procurement, and the trading atmosphere has not improved significantly. Zhanjiang Sino US PS ex factory price, 525 quotation is 8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 8250 yuan / T.

3、 Future forecast

The overall market of PS market is mainly stable, and merchants are more cautious in trading. Small and medium-sized downstream users mainly purchase on demand. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is slightly flat. It is expected that the price will be mainly shaken in the short term.

Oil production in August was higher than that in July as OPEC continued to ease production cuts, according to a Reuters survey.

According to the survey, crude oil production increased by 950000 barrels a day in August to 2427 million barrels a day. Despite Iraq’s commitment to cut production by another 400000 barrels a day in August to make up for its failure to comply with the oepc + cut quota, the increase appears to be continuing. Nigeria has also pledged to cut production further to make up for overcapacity since May.

When OPEC + extended the record 9.7 million barrels per day cut for one month to the end of July, the alliance agreed that all countries in the treaty should comply with their quotas 100 per cent, while those that did not comply should compensate for non-compliance by exceeding the cut in July, August and September.

Since August, OPEC + has reduced its production to 7.7 million B / D, of which 13 OPEC member states need to cut 4.868 million B / D in total, excluding compensatory production cuts in Iraq and Nigeria.

Oil demand may be improving, helping OPEC stick to its quotas, but even OPEC is not particularly optimistic about oil demand this year. In its latest monthly oil market report, the group said it expects daily oil demand to fall by 9.1 million barrels this year, up 100000 barrels from July’s forecast. OPEC also estimates that the global economy could fall as much as 4% this year, compared with 3.7% in July.

Since OPEC production hit its lowest level since 1991 in June, OPEC production has rebounded by 2 million B / D, including a 1 million B / d cut initiated by Saudi Arabia to accelerate the oil price rebound by tightening supply, according to Reuters survey data. Saudi Arabia, by far the largest producer of OPEC, produced 9 million barrels a day in August, 600000 more than in July.

1、 Price trend

Data show that this week, pure benzene in Shandong fell in a weak position. On August 23, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3390 yuan / ton); this Sunday (August 30), the listed price of pure benzene was 3020-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3390 yuan / ton), the average price was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, pure benzene trading light, slightly lower than last week’s price. In the first half of the week, the spot price of pure benzene rose slightly due to the rise of styrene, but in the second half of the week, the price dropped due to the impact of low prices such as hydrogenated benzene. This week, pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory remained high.

On the external side, Asian pure benzene fell in a weak position this week. On Friday (August 28), South Korea imported 427.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 14.34 US dollars / ton, or 3.25% compared with August 21; and pure benzene imported from East China was 437.5 US dollars / ton, down 7 US dollars / ton, or 1.57% compared with August 21.

In terms of crude oil, affected by the storm this week, the oil and gas production in the Gulf region of the United States was affected, and the oil price rose. In the second half of the week, relevant people expected that the impact of the storm would weaken, production would resume soon, and oil prices would fall back. Compared with August 21, Brent was up $1.305 per barrel, or 3%, and WTI was up $0.95 per barrel, or 2.24%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 32.79%, and WTI decreased by 28.76%.

On the downstream side, the styrene market maintained a high-frequency oscillation pattern, and the cost support and de inventory operation continued to confront. On August 28, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5300 yuan / ton, up 166.67 yuan / ton or 3.25% over last week.

This week aniline Market stable price consolidation. On the 28th, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the impact of the Gulf of Mexico storm subsided, and the crude oil market may rise before retrenchment. Public health events continue to affect the economy and energy market.

In the later stage, some downstream units will restart, which will support the demand for pure benzene. But the port inventory is still high, crude oil, external disk support is weak. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene price will not have a big breakthrough and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 28, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5466.67 yuan / ton, and the price of mainstream manufacturers was around 5400-5500 yuan / ton. The market of polyester bottle chip in South China was narrow, and the mainstream negotiation price in the market was 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

In recent years, pet market has been running steadily, with poor downstream demand, low negotiation atmosphere, and just in demand procurement. At present, the market of PET bottle chips in East China is stable. The price of mainstream manufacturers is around 5400-5450 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price is about 5150-5300 yuan / ton. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5400 yuan / ton, Guangdong Taibao 5400 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5400 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5400 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5350 yuan / ton. Most of them are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, the cost support is general, the manufacturer’s quotation is stable, the focus of negotiation is low, and the just need procurement is the main.

The upstream PTA market is weak, the market trading atmosphere is general, crude oil prices continue to decline, there are no favorable factors, the market is dominated by contract orders, the number of new orders is limited.

The PTA commodity index on August 27 was 35.22, down 0.11 points compared with yesterday, 66.11 points lower than 103.92 points (2011-09-15), and 17.05% higher than the lowest 30.09 points on April 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On August 27, the rubber and plastic index was 635 points, unchanged with yesterday, 40.09% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 20.27% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: pet market runs smoothly in the short term, and the focus of negotiation is low. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

On August 25, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.35/barrel, up $0.73. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 46.29 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.65 dollars. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil reached the highest level since March, mainly due to the hurricane, most of the offshore crude oil production units along the Gulf of Mexico were shut down, and supply risk partially offset the impact of the epidemic.

According to relevant overseas news, the U.S. energy industry is preparing for the coming of Hurricane Laura, which experts say is the most threatening for the US oil industry in 15 years.

Oil producers are urgently cutting crude oil production in the wake of the hurricane. In addition, they have suspended most refining units along the coast of Texas and Louisiana. According to the American Energy Information Association (EIA), oil production in the Gulf of Mexico coastal areas hit by the hurricane accounts for 17% of the total U.S. production, and refining capacity accounts for more than 45%. Refineries that produce gasoline and diesel are taking steps to shut down nine facilities, which are calculated to process nearly 2.9 million barrels of crude oil a day, or 14.6 percent of the total refining capacity of the United States. This has a significant impact on US oil supply. Currently, 82% of oil production and 57% of natural gas production have been shut down in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil producers along the Gulf Coast cut crude oil production by 1.56 million barrels per day. The sharp drop in supply has provided a boost to oil prices.

In addition, foreign news on August 25, data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week. As of August 21, crude oil inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels, and analysts estimated a decrease of 3.7 million barrels. API said crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 646000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 6.4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a 1.5 million decline. Inventories have fallen for weeks in a row, which also supports the current relatively high oil prices.

The business agency believes that in the near future, oil prices may continue to consolidate at a high level. On the one hand, under the influence of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane, the shutdown of oil plants will reduce the impact of supply, and on the other hand, it will be a good support for the decline of inventory for several weeks. However, in the medium term, the oil price does not have the fundamental basis of a substantial upward trend. Except for the OPEC + oil producing countries’ agreement on production reduction, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease, and the supply will be reduced In the medium and long term, there are certain risks; what’s more, there are still great risks in the current epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia, and the pace of demand recovery may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. Therefore, it is difficult to make a substantial breakthrough in oil prices in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market trend is stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3380 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As a whole, it was in a narrow range. Affected by this, the trend of toluene price was stable this week. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 76000 tons, with a decrease of 14000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse still exists, but the import volume decreased this month, and the shortage of filling capacity began to ease. The main price in East China is about 3360 yuan / ton. As the new coronavirus epidemic leads to the reduction of crude oil demand and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery concerns, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.945/barrel to close at $43.57/barrel, down 2.12% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand prospect and oil price trend mainly depend on the trend of global epidemic situation and the orderly recovery of national economy. At the same time, how oil producing countries and oil enterprises adjust their production is also an important factor affecting oil prices.

In the downstream, TDI continued to rise this week, and the atmosphere in the market became warmer. For domestic goods with bill of lading in East China, the reference was 13300-13500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai was around 14000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a small upward trend. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 548 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market in the short term will be slightly reduced.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 427.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 435.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.75%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index on August 21 was 67.70.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with less inventory and stronger downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 360 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 260 yuan / ton at the weekend, 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 550 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, and the price of bromine is also rising steadily. There are many favorable factors in the downstream. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of August, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose mainly due to small fluctuation. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong was 4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4500 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week. Paraformaldehyde is still in general.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market weakened on the 18th, and some manufacturers reduced the ex factory quotation by about 20-50 yuan / ton. The average methanol price at the beginning of the week was 1620 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1615 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.31%.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material support is limited, business community polyoxymethylene analysts believe: polyoxymethylene prices will fall.