Near the end of November, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded slightly. Among them, the prices of polyester POY and polyester FDY in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. As of November 29, polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 5050-5250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) was 5160-5450 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) was 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

Market price changes of domestic polyester filament from November 25 to 29

Year on year rise and fall of products from November 25, 2020 to November 29, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5340 5381 0.78% – 25.32%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5111 5128 0.33% – 27.20%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6923 6912 – 0.16% – 20.33%

As of November 25, the settlement price of WTI main contract of international crude oil was 45.71 USD / barrel, up 26.38% compared with the beginning of the month, while the settlement price of Brent main contract was 48.61 USD / barrel, up 26.84% compared with the beginning of the month. It has reached the highest level since March. On the one hand, the successive positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. PTA market began to stop falling and rebound on November 10 under the support of crude oil. As of November 29, the average market price was 3343 yuan / ton, up 7.21%.

In addition, after the hot market in October, the downstream textile enterprises received a lot of orders, the inventory was consumed, the shortage of funds was alleviated to some extent, and at the same time, it had the ability to purchase in large quantities. The end of each month is the time for many enterprises to purchase raw materials, and soon to December, some textile enterprises prepare for the end of the year to store raw materials. In the case of continuous decline in raw materials for a month, look for regular bargain hunting. On November 25, the production and sales of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were between 150% and 230%, and that of some factories was about 500%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the final thing for weaving enterprises to purchase raw materials is terminal demand. In November, the traditional textile off-season saw a significant decrease in the number of orders, and the start-up rate also dropped from 93% at the beginning of the month to about 85%. Some textile enterprises received orders in October have not yet received the payment time, so the capital pressure has not been fundamentally solved, so cautious procurement is the main. And raw material market, crude oil continued to rise, lack of power, PTA supply surplus pressure remains. Therefore, the price of polyester filament will continue to weaken in December.

Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in November, and the market of acetic anhydride kept rising. As of November 30, the average price of acetic anhydride was 6666.67 yuan / ton, which was 11.81% higher than 5962.50 yuan / ton in early November (November 1), and 40.35% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart that the price of acetic acid rose continuously in November, with an increase of 29% in November. In general, the market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in November. The cost of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rose sharply in November and then stabilized, with an overall increase of 12% in November. The cost of acetic anhydride rose and the price of acetic anhydride rose. However, with the stabilization of methanol price, the driving force of acetic anhydride rising was weakened, and the favorable situation of acetic anhydride market weakened.

Market review and future forecast

Acetic anhydride rose sharply in November, and acetic anhydride prices rose sharply. With the price of methanol stabilizing, the rising power of acetic anhydride is weakened, and the rising power of acetic anhydride in the future is still there, but the rising power is weakened. In the future, the market of acetic anhydride is not only good, but also weak. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will continue to rise, and the market of acetic anhydride will rise slightly.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid markets are running at a low level, and the ex factory prices of aluminum fluoride enterprises are not strong enough to push up the price, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market remains stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on November 27 was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week.

The domestic fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices have been running at a low level. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are in general, the downstream demand has not improved, and the price of fluorite has not changed much. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of on-site mines and flotation devices is normal, the situation of fluorite in the yard is not good, and the fluorite market price remains stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remains at a low level, and the terminal downstream on-demand procurement is the main reason, and the purchasing sentiment is not strong

The upstream fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and other raw material prices fluctuate at a low level, which has limited support for the aluminum fluoride Market. At present, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high, and the market supply is sufficient. In recent years, the market price of aluminum fluoride is relatively stable, and the aluminum fluoride manufacturers maintain stable sales.

Business agency chemical branch of aluminum fluoride industry analysts believe: upstream fluorite. The price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level, and the production of aluminum fluoride is at a high level. It is expected that aluminum fluoride manufacturers will mainly sell at a stable price.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10533 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10333 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 1.90%.

The price of activated carbon in China is weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for water purification of coconut shell in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan / ton; the quotation of activated carbon is generally stable, and the market is weak. At present, the activated carbon enterprises are in normal production, the downstream negotiation focus is lowered, the trading market atmosphere is general, and the warehouse out is normal.

Activated carbon is rich in raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, which can effectively adsorb and purify wastewater.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, and there are many indicators of activated carbon. Please contact the manufacturer for specific price consultation, mainly through negotiation.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices fell in November, acetic anhydride market slowed down. Compared with the beginning of last year, the price of acetic anhydride decreased by 50.62% compared with that at the beginning of last year, and the average price of acetic anhydride decreased by 50.62% compared with that at the beginning of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart that the acetic acid price continued to rise in November, with an increase of about 11%. In general, the acetic anhydride market rose sharply in November, with the cost of acetic anhydride rising and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rebounded and rose in November, and the methanol market rose sharply, with an increase of about 12% in November. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise was greater, which was good for the acetic anhydride market.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol continued to rise in November, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment resumed operation, and the equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers rose, and the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient. Generally speaking, the cost of acetic anhydride rose in November, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride was greater. The equipment operation of acetic anhydride enterprises increased, the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient, the pressure of acetic anhydride rise was weakened, and the downward pressure was increased. The overall market situation of acetic anhydride was good and the negative was mixed, and the price of acetic anhydride was stable.

1、 Price trend

Domestic EPS market rose, the actual transaction flexibility, shipment is acceptable. Crude oil futures closed higher, which had a certain support for the domestic bulk commodity market. Moreover, the raw material styrene market rose, and the support of EPS cost side was strengthened. Most of the merchants made firm offers, and there was no pressure to ship, and some of them were reluctant to sell.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of ex factory: the ex factory price of Zhongshan delta EPS increased, the acceptance delivery price of common materials was 10700 yuan / ton, the acceptance delivery price of fuel was 10900 yuan / ton, and the price of cash including tax was 300 yuan / ton, and the firm offer was negotiated.

3、 Future forecast

It is expected that the short-term EPS market will maintain a small upward trend of consolidation.

In the third quarter, the Recycled PVC was stable and small, and only part of it was expected to fluctuate; in the fourth quarter, the Recycled PVC was still faced with regional supply shortage. This paper will focus on the analysis of the third quarter performance and the fourth quarter forecast.

After experiencing the steady rise of hard materials in the second quarter and the mutual rise and fall of soft materials, the Recycled PVC market in the third quarter of 2020 has entered a long-term sustained strong trend with little change.

In terms of soft particles, most recycling manufacturers normally produce and supply sufficient supplies. Although the supply of some raw materials, such as door curtains and steel hose, was a little tight in late August, the overall downstream demand was weak. The purchase of downstream manufacturers was limited, and the on-site shipment was poor, and the inventory increased. In mid August, some of the prices were above 5000 yuan / T, and the particles were under pressure, while others remained stable.

However, after the price cut, the deal did not improve, and some manufacturers of recycled soft products stopped work late. At the end of September, due to the shortage of raw materials in some parts of Hebei Province, as well as the positive signs of downstream exports, the price of soft products rose and the shipment improved. The broken white curtain rose to 5000 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than the end of the second quarter, and 400 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year.

In terms of hard crushing materials, Recycled PVC manufacturers are in normal production, and the supply in most regions is stable. For example, in the first half of July, some regions such as Dingzhou and Wuhan are in short supply due to the shortage of raw materials. Since the end of last ten days, the number of raw materials and broken materials in this area gradually increased. The overall demand is good and the on-site shipment is smooth.

In the first half of the third quarter, most manufacturers reported that the shipment in the third quarter was fair, but the shipment volume decreased compared with the same period last year, and the transactions were concentrated among old customers; only a few manufacturers reported that the supply was in short supply this year, and new customers’ inquiries were more positive. After the middle of September, some manufacturers also reported that the demand has become weak in the near future.

In the third quarter, the PVC market price showed an upward trend, and the price fluctuation range was relatively reduced. Taking East China SG-5 as an example, the lowest price in the third quarter was 6228 yuan / ton, the highest price was 6725 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase was 497 yuan / ton.

In the third quarter, the supply began to increase gradually, and the arrival of imported goods increased significantly. There was still a part of the demand for rush work, but the demand for rush work was gradually coming to an end, and with the hot weather, some demand showed a slight month on month decrease. The overall contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not large, inventory de stocking is slowing down obviously, and there are differences between long and short markets, but the upward trend of prices has not been broken.

In the first ten days of July, the market experienced a wave of relatively obvious pull-up under the support of abundant liquidity and good macro-economy. However, from the end of July to the first ten days of September, the overall price was mainly fluctuated. Since the end of September, with the support of terminal stock and export order growth exceeding the expectation, the price has risen again.

Seasonal forecast

The main factors influencing the market of Recycled PVC in the next quarter are economic situation, supply and demand, etc.

Economic situation: at present, local governments at all levels have also made plans and plans to tackle key problems with all their strength, and sprint for the fourth quarter to ensure the completion of the annual targets and tasks. Judging from the focus of the work in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, expanding effective investment, promoting consumption expansion and quality improvement, and fully releasing the potential of economic development are still the key tasks.

Supply of Recycled PVC: at present, most of the Recycled PVC manufacturers are in normal production, and there is no change in the short term, so the probability of active shutdown is small. In some regions, the supply of hard and soft products is still insufficient, and it is expected that the supply of goods in some regions will be tight.

Demand for Recycled PVC: the seasonal demand is flat, there is a certain rigid demand support, downstream manufacturers are expected to purchase mainly on demand.

In summary, the supply and demand side of Recycled PVC has a greater impact, and it is expected that the Recycled PVC in the fourth quarter will show a stable, medium and narrow plate situation.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market remained stable, while some enterprises in the aluminum fluoride Market slightly pushed up the price of aluminum fluoride, but the overall price of aluminum fluoride market remained stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on November 6 was 9000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week.

The price trend of domestic fluorite market is fluctuating. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that their goods are not in good condition, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has not changed much. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of on-site mines and flotation devices is normal, the situation of fluorite in the yard is not good, and the fluorite market price remains stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remains at a low level, and the downstream terminal is mainly purchased on demand, and the purchasing sentiment is not strong.

The upstream fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and other raw material prices fluctuate, which has a limited impact on the aluminum fluoride Market. At present, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high, and the output of aluminum fluoride in China in September is 67300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40.5%. In recent years, the market price of aluminum fluoride is relatively stable. On the whole, aluminum fluoride manufacturers stand up for sales, but the overall inventory of aluminum fluoride industry is high, and the market price of aluminum fluoride is easy to fall Up.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of chemical branch of business society believe that: upstream fluorite prices remain volatile, and the current aluminum fluoride production is at a high level. It is expected that the prices of aluminum fluoride manufacturers will be stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6150.00 yuan / ton, the current price is down 0.61% month on month, and the current price is 4.28% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic potassium carbonate market is stable, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the market trading atmosphere is general, the demand side is weak, downstream factories take more goods on demand, and the transaction is not positive. According to the statistics of the business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different purchasing conditions.

On November 6, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / ton of potassium chloride, which increased by 150 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 100 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market rose, giving potassium carbonate cost support.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the recent domestic price of potassium chloride is rising, and the supply of domestic potassium chloride and Port imported powdered potassium is relatively tight. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

Commodity index: on October 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 90.97, which was the same as yesterday, 16.55% lower than 109.01 (2019-08-28), and 7.89% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data show that in October, the market of polyaluminum chloride was in a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the highest price of the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content and content ≥ 28% appeared at about 1682.86 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with the maximum increase of 4.71% this month. This is also the best month for polyaluminum chloride market since 2020. The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has been raised, but the price of calcium powder has not been lowered since the increase in previous months. The price of fuel and natural gas used in the production process has risen sharply this month, resulting in an increase in the cost of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers this month, with the price of polyaluminum increased by about 150 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price in North China is mainly stable, with some small increases: in October 30, the price of polyaluminum chloride in Meihua, Dezhou has been raised several times, and now it has been reported to 210 yuan / ton. The quotations of Jinan Yuanfei, Taiyuan kunshengda, Shanxi Wenshui and Dezhou Shihua are relatively stable. Henan Province: according to the manufacturers of polyaluminum chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid rose to about 180 yuan / ton in September. In October, the price of local hydrochloric acid continued to rise, which caused great cost pressure to polyaluminum chloride manufacturers. In addition, from the perspective of market rules, the downstream is also in September and October for environmental protection water treatment and reserve raw materials for heating season. Under the dual stimulation of cost and demand, polychlorinated chlorine (PCL) Most of the ex factory prices of aluminum chemical industry have risen, with an increase rate of about 150 yuan / ton this month.

This month, the price of natural gas, a fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, has soared. According to the monitoring of the business agency, with the opening of heating in winter, some areas have begun to replenish the fuel, and the demand is gradually increasing. At present, the downstream procurement is active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is strong. In addition, multiple favorable factors, such as cost rise, have promoted domestic liquefaction However, the price of natural gas is generally rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term. The current mainstream quotation is about 3766.67 yuan / ton, which has increased by more than 43% this month. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a large increase, the pressure will increase suddenly, and it is inevitable that the ex factory price of polyaluminum will rise this month.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly, especially in October. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has increased significantly. Many manufacturers said that this month is the best month in 2020, and downstream demand is expected to continue to be good.

Industry: in October, the water treatment industry as a whole is in the annual sales peak season, and the market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side and the demand for water treatment products caused by the upcoming heating season and environmental protection pressure. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics, and the market in October is better than that in September. Based on the demand of heating season, the price of polyaluminum chloride is rising due to the continuous rise of raw material cost. Due to the coming of heating next month, the comprehensive influence of environmental protection and cost rise, the demand for water treatment will continue to have a certain support Due to the strict requirements of environmental protection, it is still unknown whether there will be shutdown and rectification due to environmental protection. In addition to policy factors, from the perspective of market rules, polyaluminum chloride trend still has upward momentum.