After the soaring price at the end of last year, the domestic acrylonitrile market has fluctuated slightly since the beginning of 2021. Before the deadline, the price of acrylonitrile in East China closed at 12200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.4% during the year, basically in line with the price at the beginning of the year. In the near future, the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant is not much, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. In the long run, with the gradual increase of supply, the overall pressure of acrylonitrile industry is large.

In recent years, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has been steadily improved. According to statistics, in June 2020, the 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was put into operation, making the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reach about 2600000 T / A. In 2021, the acrylonitrile industry will enter into the peak of new unit production. The units such as keluer phase II 130000t / A, sipang phase III 260000t / A and Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II 260000t / a are planned to be put into production within this year. By then, the market supply will be very sufficient.

With the continuous growth of domestic production capacity, the trade flow of acrylonitrile has changed to a certain extent. Customs data show that the total domestic import of acrylonitrile in 2020 is 306600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the overall performance is still relatively stable. As most of the acrylonitrile importers are South Korean and Taiwan plastic enterprises such as Zhenjiang Qimei and Formosa Plastics, which are equipped with corresponding raw material plants in the local area, this kind of import is mainly long-term, and the change is expected to be small. It is noteworthy that the export volume of acrylonitrile will further increase in 2020. According to statistics, the total export volume in 2020 will be 72800 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 69.8%. The main export destinations are South Korea, India, Thailand and Turkey. In just a few years, the export volume of acrylonitrile industry has been greatly increased. It is reported that in 2020, Ineos’s 280000t / a acrylonitrile plant in hill sands, UK, will be shut down permanently. In addition to the increase of domestic production capacity, promoting export has become an inevitable development trend of domestic acrylonitrile industry.

There are also two points in the development of acrylonitrile downstream industry. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in the production of ABS, acrylic fiber, acrylamide and other products. ABS is still the main growth point of acrylonitrile demand in the future. In 2021, a total of 1.4 million T / a ABS production capacity will be put into operation, including Guangxi Changke 150000 T / A, Taihua Xingye 250000 T / A and Zhangzhou Qimei 450000 T / A. On the other hand, the capacity of downstream acrylic fiber has not increased in recent years, and the industry lacks high value-added and differentiated products, which are greatly affected by polyester and viscose products. In recent years, other downstream products of acrylonitrile have gradually attracted people’s attention. In terms of carbon fiber, in January this year, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. started the construction of 12000t / a 48K large tow carbon fiber, and Jinggong technology completed the localization of the first 1000 ton carbon fiber production line, which indicates that the domestic carbon fiber industry is gradually mature and is expected to become a new dark horse in the downstream of acrylonitrile. At the same time, the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 makes the demand for medical gloves surge, and the nitrile latex industry also develops greatly. However, due to the small overall production capacity, the contribution to the demand for acrylonitrile is not large.

Overall, the recent strong trend of international crude oil, acrylonitrile raw material is good, driving acrylonitrile up slightly in the short term. In the long run, domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will increase significantly, and the demand from ABS, carbon fiber and nitrile rubber latex is expected to increase in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the prices of most energy and chemical products have soared, and the price of aniline has increased by nearly 20%. On February 9, the price of aniline in Shandong was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8400-8600 yuan / ton. On February 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9600-9700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 9700-9900 yuan / ton. The average price increased by 1500 yuan / ton, or 18.22%, 23.21% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 46% higher than that at the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, during the Spring Festival, severe cold weather swept the energy and chemical industry in the United States, and crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. Domestic pure benzene enterprises received good news, good shipment during the Spring Festival, price push up. From February 10 to February 21, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 750 yuan / ton to 6150 yuan / ton. On Sunday (February 21), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6150 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 810 yuan / ton or 15.17% compared with that before the festival.

This week, the price of nitric acid remained stable compared with that before the festival. On Saturday (February 20), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.83%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 26.32%.

During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rose, the price of pure benzene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, and the price of aniline rose. According to the news during the Spring Festival, Jinling’s 200000 t / a aniline plant is expected to be overhauled in March. Affected by the news, the downstream stock is prepared in advance, and the inventory of aniline enterprises is released rapidly, and the rising trend continues after the festival.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, some new units are expected to be put into production, pure benzene supply is expected to be tightened, and the price still has room to go up. However, the trend of pure benzene is expected to moderate with the recovery of supply of foreign units. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plants, crude oil, external market and styrene trend, etc.

There is still room for cost increase; Jinling aniline plant is expected to be overhauled, and market supply is expected to decrease; downstream MDI supply is tight, plant load is high, and demand support is strong. Aniline prices or continue to rise, is expected to break million! Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the change of market supply and demand, the operation and maintenance of aniline plant.

According to February 18 Investing.com A year ago, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in the world, and the global oil demand situation is still unclear. However, some aspects of the oil market are now better understood. At present, it is crucial to break the impact of winter cold weather on oil production and refining in Texas, pay attention to the decisions that OPEC + may make at the meeting in two weeks, the reasons for the rise of U.S. oil prices and future oil demand.

First, the US oil supply was temporarily suspended.

Low temperatures in Texas led to a sharp drop in US crude oil production this week. According to the latest information, more than 4 million barrels per day of oil production capacity was forced to be interrupted, accounting for about 40% of the total U.S. oil production capacity. You know, under normal circumstances, Texas usually has 4.6 million barrels of oil per day.

By contrast, in October last year, in response to Hurricane Delta, producers shut down about 92% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or 1.68 million barrels per day. The temperature should improve in the near future, and the capacity interruption may last until next week, but if large-scale maintenance is needed, some capacity may be suspended for a longer time.

Most of the refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down due to similar climatic factors. At the beginning of this week, with the news that a large-scale shutdown may be coming and the oil price rising, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil finally broke through the $60 per barrel mark.

Prices rose another 1% on Wednesday as more information about the disruption became clear, but they will fall back as exploration and refining operations resume. Gasoline prices are also rising in the United States as refineries shut down. Gasoline prices in the Midwest, for example, rose about $0.05 a gallon on Wednesday.

Second, the decision of OPEC + on the production reduction agreement.

OPEC + member states are preparing to hold a meeting in two weeks and have begun to state their position to the media. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia will reduce its oil production by an additional 1 million barrels a day, which will last until the end of March.

Saudi Arabia will resume its supply quotas in April. This is Saudi Arabia’s position when it announced “additional production cuts” in January, so this message confirms that Saudi Arabia’s policy has not changed in the past few weeks.

On the other hand, OPEC + authorized Russia to increase production in February and March, but Russia has been unable to increase production due to unusually cold weather. Russia’s average production in February was 10.115 million B / D, down about 44000 B / D from January. However, higher temperatures in March may increase Russia’s oil production.

At the meeting on March 4, OPEC + will decide whether to continue to produce oil at its current level in April (Saudi Arabia will reduce production by an additional 1 million B / D), or to increase production due to higher oil prices. Russia said it believed the oil market was balanced, while Saudi Arabia expressed more cautious and moderate optimism about the current situation.

Third, fuel prices in the United States have risen.

Over the past month, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen by nearly $0.20, raising concerns that U.S. gasoline consumer prices will return to the previous high oil prices. The rise in gasoline prices may be related to the market tension caused by the country’s early administrative orders on oil and gas leasing and oil transportation.

However, these executive orders have not yet affected the fundamentals. The price rise is largely due to the tightening of fundamental factors unrelated to these policies.

Fourth, oil demand is still uncertain.

Short term oil demand in the US and Europe remains a big problem. Unless people are allowed to move around freely, children are allowed to return to school, and more workers are allowed to return to the office, gasoline consumption will not return to its previous level.

Many European countries have extended the blockade order to March or April, but in some countries, the legislature or the court is overturning the executive’s decision. In the United States, it’s not clear. Many school districts in the United States have not resumed full-time schooling, so many parents cannot leave home to return to work. It is hoped that full-time education will be restored in the autumn, but in the current situation, it is difficult to achieve.

In the long run, oil demand outside Europe and Asia is expected to grow. Traders should not forget that even if the short-term demand situation is questionable, the long-term demand situation can be determined.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was adjusted weakly this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1683.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1633.33 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 2.97%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite was general. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1450-1750 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 1600 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the procurement of downstream trade entities basically ended, and the market transaction was relatively light. Affected by the continuous cost suppression and shipping pressure, some enterprises slightly reduced the ex factory price, while the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly weakened. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

This week, the domestic soda price rose slightly by 0.74%, the sulfur price rose slightly by 2.8%, the raw material cost bottomed out and rebounded, and the processing cost of sodium pyrosulfite rose slightly, which will play a certain support for the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price recovery of upstream products will form a certain support for the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to rise slightly after the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol rose in Shandong this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 10333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10916.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.65%, 60.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 80.39 on February 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers rose this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 10900 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week. Lihuayi quoted 10950 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 10900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this week, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 7068.18 yuan / ton, up 6.58% over the same period last year. The high price of raw materials in the upstream market, affected by the supply and demand side, had a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 9575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.96%, 38.62% over the same period of last year. The price of downstream DOP rose, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol increased, the demand for octanol was better, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, the market trend of Shandong octanol may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in mid February, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, octanol market may rise slightly.

Domestic BDO spot supply is tight and the market is strong. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of February 5, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 15575 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 18.67%, up 57.71% year on year.

Some enterprises announced new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprise, settlement in January (bulk water delivered), listing in February (bulk water delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12860 / T in East China, $12960 / T in South China, and $15400 / T in East China and $15600 / T in South China

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. $12800 / T East China, $13000 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $14300 / T East China, and $14500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

The domestic BDO market is tight and the price is rising. Manufacturers mainly delivered orders, spot goods were in short supply, and the high level of bidding was boosted, and the focus of negotiation continued to rise. The main factories announced that they were listed in February, with a sharp increase of 1000-2300 yuan / ton compared with January, showing obvious intention to support the market.

In terms of devices, Dongyuan finished maintenance, Shanhua replaced the catalysts at the end of January, and great wall energy replaced the catalysts in turn from February 1. The overall supply decreased, and favorable support remained.

Although next week will enter the Spring Festival holiday, but the main customers in the downstream are more “holiday without work stoppage”, and the digestion of raw materials is considerable; while other small customers in the downstream are more, stock is not much, and continue to go into the market to catch up and replenish positions may be in the majority. Therefore, the demand side support is acceptable. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

Crude oil futures closed higher on Monday, in part because OPEC’s crude oil production growth in January was lower than expected, according to a survey.

West Texas light crude for March delivery rose $1.35, or 2.6%, to $53.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil for April delivery on London ice European futures exchange also rose $1.31, or 2.4%, to close at $56.35 a barrel.

In a recent market report, Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AXA, said OPEC and its allies (collectively known as OPEC +) “seem to be taking their production reduction commitments seriously.”. On Sunday, a representative, who did not want to be named, revealed that OPEC + had a 99% compliance rate with its oil supply restriction agreement in December last year. At the end of last week, most traders were optimistic because the OPEC + agreement reached in early January will be implemented on February 1, including Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reduce production by 1 million B / D unilaterally.

According to a survey, OPEC member countries produced 25.75 million barrels of crude oil per day in January, an increase of 160000 barrels over December last year. “As a result, output growth is significantly lower than expected,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at commercial zbank, said in a report The terms of the agreement reached by OPEC members and their allies at last December’s meeting provide OPEC with room to increase its daily production by up to 300000 barrels. But frich pointed out that the smaller increase in supply was not due to the “voluntary silence” of Member States, but to the involuntary interruption of production in Nigeria.

Michael tran, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report that a strong spot premium – that is, the price of recent contracts is higher than that of forward contracts – remains a bullish feature of the market. He said the March Brent crude oil contract performed strongly when it expired last week, with a premium of 84 cents over the April contract, which is particularly noteworthy because the end of the month maturity “is the time when the financial futures and spot crude oil prices are delivered in the specified contract month”. “In short, a strong close shows that the spot market has been pricing more strongly than the financial market has been,” he added

“Positive risk sentiment is one of the factors supporting oil prices, and the prospect of continued decline in oil inventories in the next few weeks due to the decline in Saudi production also supports oil prices.” Said Giovanni staunovo, an analyst at UBS. Brent crude oil futures are expected to hit $60 a barrel in the middle of this year, he said.

Goldman Sachs Group said that the oil price may rise to $65 a barrel in July, and predicted that there will be a supply shortage of 900000 B / D in the oil market in the first half of 2021, higher than the previous forecast of 500000 B / d.

In other energy transactions on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rbob gasoline futures for delivery in March rose 2.4% to $1.5901 per gallon; heating oil futures for delivery in March rose 3% to $1.6469 per gallon; and natural gas futures for delivery in March rose 11.2% to $2.85 per million BTUs.

“The optimistic shift in [weather] forecasts at the end of last week means that the possibility of the coming cold weather spreading to densely populated areas in the lower 48 Eastern States is increasing,” Jeremiah shelor, a market analyst at natural gas intelligence, reported on Monday

In 2021, the propane market continued the rising trend at the end of 2020. In January, the overall trend was first up and then down, with a large range of rise and fall within the month, showing a “roller coaster” market. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 4157.50 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4020.00 yuan / ton on January 31, with a decrease of 3.31% in January and an increase of 4.76% compared with December 1.

As of January 29, the mainstream propane prices in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specifications January 29

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4200-4450 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than 95.4000-4120 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95 3900-4050 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4270-4450 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4230-4606 yuan / ton

It can be seen from the trend chart that in the first half of January, the propane Market frequently increased the ex factory price, with a large range, and the price went up continuously to 5500 yuan / ton. First of all, in the first half of the month, the market price began to rise sharply during the new year’s Day holiday, which supported the continuous increase of the ex factory price of propane Market. Firstly, the CP price of Saudi Aramco was introduced in January, resulting in the sharp rise of propane butane, which brought obvious benefits to the market. Secondly, in the first half of the month, the international crude oil market was the main market, and the news was favorable to the market mentality. Downstream mentality is good, entering the market is more positive, manufacturers shipping smoothly, strong mentality. Among them, the northern market rose significantly, with an increase of 450-700 yuan / ton during the holidays. After the holiday, the market remained positive and continued to rise until the middle of the month.

But “a big rise will be accompanied by a big fall”. Sure enough, in the second half of the month, the market trend is in sharp contrast to the first half, and prices are mainly falling continuously. In the second half of the month, the decline of international crude oil was bad for the market mentality, and some low-cost ports brought a certain impact on the market. In addition, affected by the public health events in the north, the traffic was blocked, and the market demand became weak. In the first half of the month, the price rose too fast, the downstream resistance increased, the mentality was cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market was not high. Manufacturers shipping blocked, inventory gradually accumulated, frequent price reduction, profit based shipping. By the end of the month, the price had fallen back to about 4000 yuan / ton.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in February that there was an increase in propane and butane. Propane was 605 US dollars / ton, up 55 US dollars / ton compared with last month; butane was 585 US dollars / ton, up 55 US dollars / ton compared with last month.

At the end of the month, the market price in Shandong mostly recovered to be stable. At present, the CP rise in February has brought some support to the market. However, the trend of international crude oil is not clear, which brings limited benefits to the market. With the Spring Festival approaching, manufacturers’ demand for storage and inventory may weaken before the festival, and the terminal market demand may weaken after the festival. It is expected that the market rise and fall in February will be limited, and the overall market may rise first and then fall.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%. On January 29, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as that of yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was slightly tight. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the prices of some manufacturers rise slightly. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was stable, with the weekend price of 2016.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton. The price of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1950 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units are running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery situation in the market has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the market remains high. The high price of nitric acid is a good support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia was temporarily stable this week, with the weekend price of 3383.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 3383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The operation of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market continued to rise. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally rebounded. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a price gap with other regions in China, especially the northeast region, which also undertook some external orders, the price remained high. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. From the perspective of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season. This week, the price of the upstream remains high, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market is stable. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate in the market is general, which has certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the later period.

In 2020, China’s crude oil imports will grow rapidly, and Saudi Arabia will continue to be the largest source of imports. Customs data show that in 2020, China’s crude oil imports were 542.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; the import value was 1221.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%.

In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and OPEC production reduction, the international oil price will drop sharply. “China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, and low oil prices have led to an increase in crude oil imports.” Han Zhengji, an analyst with jinlianchuang crude oil, said that with the demand of China’s economic development, crude oil imports have maintained a steady growth. In 2020, the international crude oil futures continued to fall at the beginning of the year, and maintained a range shock trend after a slight rebound in the middle of the year. In the first quarter of 2020, the impact of the epidemic plus the OPEC + production crisis led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices. After the second quarter, international crude oil futures prices continued to decline, the weakest performance in nearly 30 years. In early May, OPEC +’s record production reduction of 9.7 million B / D was officially implemented, and the implementation of production reduction in various countries was good, and oil prices began to rebound. In the second half of the year, the news of the crude oil market was mixed, but the bad demand limited the upward space of oil price, and the oil price basically maintained the range fluctuation trend.

In the first half of 2020, the sharp drop of oil price will reduce the import cost, and the import volume of crude oil will reach record high again and again. In the second half of the year, the international oil price rebounded, and the storage pressure appeared after the arrival of crude oil, so the import volume of crude oil decreased.

In 2020, China’s crude oil imports increased year-on-year, but the import amount decreased year-on-year. This is mainly due to the drop in international oil prices, especially the sharp drop in international crude oil futures prices in the first half of the year, and the drop in spot prices, which has reduced the cost of crude oil import.

In 2020, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Brazil, Angola, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, the United States and Norway are the top ten source countries of China’s crude oil imports. Among them, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil import volume was about 84.92 million tons, about 1.69 million barrels / day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, surpassing Russia by a small margin.

In 2020, Russia will export about 83.57 million tons of crude oil to China, about 1.67 million barrels per day, up 7.6% year on year. “Compared with Saudi Arabia, Russia is more flexible in logistics and transportation, and has more advantages in geographical location. In 2020, Russia’s crude oil export growth will be higher than Saudi Arabia.” Han Zhengji said.

In 2020, Iraq will remain China’s third largest supplier of crude oil. Iraq has become one of the main beneficiaries of the severe US sanctions, which have seriously affected the oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, the crude oil producing countries. In 2020, Iraq’s oil exports to China increased by 16.1% year on year, reaching 60.12 million tons.

Han Zhengji predicted that in 2021, on the one hand, the market has experience in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the demand for crude oil will not decline significantly; on the other hand, considering that the current crude oil price has rebounded from the low point, the cost of crude oil import will increase to a certain extent, and China’s crude oil import may maintain a steady growth trend.