The strong rebound in oil prices was abruptly suspended due to signs of weak demand in major markets, the Financial Times website reported March 19, entitled “oil prices have suffered the biggest weekly drop since October last year due to concerns about demand.”. Oil prices have experienced the biggest weekly decline since october2020.

Brent crude oil prices closed down nearly 7 per cent this week to $64.53 a barrel. The US West Texas Intermediate base crude oil price also fell similar to $61.42 a barrel.

The drop, the report said, has put the brakes on the almost uninterrupted rebound in oil prices this year. Since the beginning of November 2020, with the reopening of the world’s measures to lift the epidemic blockade, the prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate base crude oil have risen by more than 60%.

But analysts said oil prices had already oversupped after Brent crude broke the $70 a barrel last week, the report said. Traders are focusing again on signs of a resumption of blockade measures in parts of Europe and the continued weakness of real demand between China and the United States.

“I think oil prices are catching up in terms of the actual demand for crude oil from China and the United States,” said Christopher page, senior oil market analyst at Rustad energy in Norway

Meanwhile, US oil stocks have increased as it takes longer than expected for petrochemical plants to return to operation after Texas’s energy production sector has been frozen. The energy information agency reported an increase in oil inventories of 2.4 million barrels.

“The market feels a bit too much for the time being, and macro conditions and general optimism about vaccines have helped to support the rise in oil prices,” said Paul hosnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank, the report said. The severe test of the fall in oil prices has been a long time since, so it takes just a few things to act as a catalyst to get the ball rolling. ”

Some analysts say the weakness in the oil market is unlikely to continue. They believe that oil demand could still rebound strongly later this year as the vaccine program accelerated (despite short-term problems in Europe) boosted travel and broader economies.

Analysts say the fall in oil prices may be partly related to the rise in US Treasury yields, which have curbed investors’ risk appetite.

Michael tran, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, advised investors to “wait for the fall to end,” the report said.

“The market is rarely straight and we think global oil demand will see a strong rise in the summer and the current weakness period should not affect our forecast for this outlook,” he said

The report also said that after four consecutive days of falling, Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate base crude oil prices rose by about 2% on the 19th, partly because a refinery in Riyadh, Saudi capital, was attacked by drones.

Saudi energy ministry said oil supply was unaffected. But before that, other attacks on the country’s oil facilities have been made in the near future. Iran backed Yemeni Husser claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks forecast further oil prices to rise, based on long-term concerns that oil demand in major economies around the world is stronger and new supply investment is being cut too much. Goldman said it still believes Brent crude oil prices will rise to $80 a barrel this summer.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: March 19: 916.67 yuan / ton

The main points of analysis were March 19, and the domestic ammonium sulfate was mainly in the process of consolidation. At present, the main factory quotation of powdery ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is about 800 yuan / ton, that of internal grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 830-850 yuan / ton, and that of internal ammonium sulfate in Hunan is about 1100 yuan / ton. Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current regional differences of ammonium sulfate are obvious, and the performance of each region is different. Overall, downstream demand is general, traders mainly watch, downstream manufacturers who take it. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be mainly adjusted in the short term.

In the BDO market continues to rise, “at a glance of the mountains” after the recent domestic BDO market into a “cooling off period.”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 15, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31150 yuan / ton, up 82.55% month on month and 218.90% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream price in East China market is 29000-30800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic BDO market fell slightly, with more news about the release of upstream and downstream devices, increased market wait-and-see sentiment, and weak real order trading. The bidding price of Yanchang oil has gradually declined, the view of the middle and lower reaches on the future market is short, and the enthusiasm to enter the market has weakened. The game between the supplier and the demander continued, and some profit makers were negotiating with a narrow margin, and the focus of the negotiation fell.

In terms of units, Dongyuan’s 100000 ton unit load is about 90%, and the catalyst is planned to be replaced in April. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the load of Panjin Dalian was reduced to 50%. The operation of Yanchang oil plant is unstable, and the load is about 30-40%, which is suspended due to unstable hydrogenation. Shaanxi Ronghe plans to restart on March 20. Tianye plans to restart a 60000 ton plant in late March. Great wall energy is scheduled to be overhauled in April, but the time is uncertain. Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to replace the catalyst in April, but the time is uncertain. Xinye plans to replace the catalyst in mid and late March.

In order to maintain the reasonable and healthy development of the whole industrial chain, it is necessary for BDO market to return to rationality. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

In the week of March 12, the price of polysilicon continued to rise by 2.50%; since March, the price of polysilicon has increased by nearly 10%. The main reason for the increase is that under the background of stable supply, the demand for downstream silicon wafers continues to increase, and after the price of silicon wafers is increased, the tolerance for the high price of upstream silicon materials is increased. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 12, the mainstream price of domestic polysilicon primary material market was 67000-70000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of imported material was 75000-90000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has reached the highest point in nearly two years.

At present, the domestic silicon market is still in short supply. Since the middle and last ten days of February, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has tended to be normalized. At present, about 10 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, and only one device is maintained, which affects a small amount of output. Among them, manufacturers in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions contributed about 80% of the output. However, even if silicon material manufacturers started at full speed, it did not bring ease to the supply side. Large enterprises signed orders in good condition. Most large factories signed orders in March, and some began to sign new orders next month. The tight supply of silicon material manufacturers to raise prices to provide a prerequisite. The deep reason is inseparable from the demand side.

The demand for downstream silicon wafers only increases, and the price of silicon wafers continues to rise. Under the cost transmission effect, the tolerance of silicon wafer manufacturers to high price raw materials gradually increases, which does not affect the demand. At the beginning of this month, the leading silicon companies Longji and Zhonghuan announced new brand prices one after another, and the prices rose in an all-round way. This week, the quotation of silicon wafers fluctuated slightly. After the leading enterprises raised their quotation in an all-round way, the whole industry chain was on the rise, and the price rise of silicon wafers eased the cost pressure brought by the early silicon material rise. Moreover, there is a strong demand for silicon wafers in terminal batteries, and silicon wafers are in short supply. The linkage of industrial chain is the fundamental reason for the rise of silicon materials.

According to the business association, the current market logic is that the rise of silicon materials is transmitted to silicon wafers, and then to components. The shortage of raw materials leads to irrational price rise. Moreover, the middle and lower reaches of enterprises begin to gradually reduce the operating rate to relieve the pressure. Later, the demand may be restricted, and the impact on the upstream will gradually appear. Under the game between cost and supply and demand, the upward space of silicon materials is limited It will be compressed to a certain extent, but the supply and demand fundamentals are still good for silicon materials. At least in the near future, the price of silicon materials is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of lithium hydroxide rose. As of March 7, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 66666.67 yuan / ton, up 3.09% compared with the beginning of the week, 16.28% compared with February 7, and 16.96% compared with the same period last year, according to the data from the business club’s block list.

Recently, the spot supply in the market is tight, the demand side performance is acceptable, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is improved, the business mentality is firm, and the quotation continuously goes up. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of lithium hydroxide of some enterprises in the near future is summarized as follows: the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 75000 yuan / ton; the quotation of Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 72000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide is 75000 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants follows the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

The price of lithium carbonate in East China has risen recently. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of March 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 82800 yuan / ton, which was 6.70% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87800 yuan / ton, which was 6.04% higher than the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 5, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were sulfuric acid (6.62%), ammonium chloride (5.17%) and hydrochloric acid (2.90%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined on a month on month basis, with DOP (- 3.66%), ISO octanol (- 3.52%) and cyclohexanone (- 2.55%) as the top three products. The average daily rise and fall was 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business club, the recent cost support is strong, the spot supply is tight, and the demand is good, which supports the mentality of manufacturers. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%. On March 5, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid declined slightly, with the weekend price of 1983.33 yuan / ton, 0.83% lower than the price of 2000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2050 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton. The price of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1950 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units are running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. The price trend of nitric acid in the market has dropped slightly. The decline of nitric acid price is the bad influence of ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia was temporarily stable this week, with the weekend price of 3360 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 3360 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard is normal, the spot supply in the yard is normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally remains high. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remains at a reasonable level, and there is a certain price difference with other regions in China, especially the northeast region, which also undertakes some external orders, the price remains high. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. From the perspective of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season. This week, the price of the upstream remains high, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market has dropped slightly. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the coking coal market in North China was about 1541.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and the average price of coking coal market in North China was 1581.67 yuan / ton on February 28, with a slight increase of 2.59%, up 6.15% over the same period last year. The price of coking coal was relatively strong at the beginning of February, and stabilized temporarily from the middle to the end of the month.

On February 28, the coking coal commodity index was 116.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point 121.53 in the cycle (March 12, 2019), and up 159.92% from the lowest point 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business community, on the supply side, large state-owned enterprises have normal production during the Spring Festival, and the supply side is guaranteed. There are many manufacturers in accordance with the implementation of early orders, the overall price presents a stable situation. After the festival, the supply of coal mines basically recovered, and the supply side as a whole was obviously loose compared with previous years. In order to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control, during the holidays, large coal mines generally do not have holidays for normal production. At the same time, most of the mines have fewer days off, enterprises do not stop work, or some enterprises return to work early, some stocks are on the high side, enterprises are not smooth in shipment, and some coal mines are under shipment pressure. Therefore, coal enterprises are willing to reduce the price of shipment.

Demand: on the downstream side, the sales and shipment of coking enterprises are good before the festival, and the inventory of coking enterprises remains low. The new production capacity of coking enterprises is gradually releasing. According to the coke inventory of steel plants, some steel plants have not reached the reasonable inventory before the festival, and there are still plans to replenish the warehouse in the near future. Some of the steel plants that have been put into maintenance are scheduled to resume production about one year later. The overall supply of coke is still tight, the price of coke has reached a higher level, the profit of coking enterprises is higher, and the profit in some areas has reached 1000 yuan / ton, which is the highest profit in the past decade. On the spot market after the festival: at the end of last month, affected by the rain and snow weather traffic control in Shanxi and the environmental protection control in Hebei, the coke inventory in these two regions had a significant rebound, and the inventory in the factory increased significantly. The price of coke is relatively high, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel plants has slowed down significantly. Recently, they are at a reasonable inventory level. After the first round of increase and decrease was implemented last week, some steel plants started the second round of increase and decrease. At present, coking enterprises have not responded. In the current situation of slightly loose supply of finished coke, it is expected that the overall coke market will be weak in the near future.

According to coking coal analysts of business society, the price of coke is relatively high, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel plants is obviously slowing down, and they are at a reasonable inventory level in the near future. At present, the overall supply of coke is slightly loose, and the stock of raw materials before the festival is relatively loose. The demand for coking coal procurement is slowing down, mainly to digest inventory. The continuous reduction of coke price has depressed the enthusiasm of coke enterprises for purchasing high price raw coal. Moreover, the overall inventory of coking coal is relatively loose. It is expected that there may be downward space for coking coal in March, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on February 26 was 5150 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from the beginning of the week, up 1.98% from the beginning of the week, and down 4.04% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first week after the festival, the price of phosphoric acid was stable for the time being. Watch the market carefully. In this week, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rose steadily, and the industry basically returned to the market. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, the heat of inquiry increased, and just needed replenishment after the festival, the price of phosphoric acid rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 26, the quotation in Sichuan was 4800-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 5100 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was 5200-5400 yuan / ton. The prices in various regions rose steadily.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-5500

In Hubei Province, ﹣ phosphoric acid content: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade 5100

The content of ﹣ 3 ﹣ phosphate in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5200-5400

Beijing Tianjin area: 85% industrial grade – 4700-5600

Fujian Province: 85% industrial grade

This week, the price of yellow phosphorus rose, yellow phosphorus spot is relatively tight, the main manufacturers send early orders, downstream appropriate procurement. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17000 yuan / ton. At present, the spot of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the downstream is suitable for purchasing. In addition, the downstream pesticide market is up, boosting the price of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise steadily in the short term.

The domestic phosphate ore market has maintained a stable operation for the time being. At present, most of the sites are mainly on the lookout, and the overall start-up is low. The recovery of downstream demand is relatively slow. The parking and maintenance of downstream enterprises are increasing before the festival, and the construction is still in progress after the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is general, and the market price basically maintains the previous market. On February 23, the price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guangxi was around 300-330 yuan / ton. Compared with a week ago, the price fluctuated little, the market atmosphere was general, and the orders were mainly in the early stage of delivery.

3、 Future forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that at present, raw material prices are rising steadily, phosphoric acid enterprises are basically returning to the market this week, with a slight increase in offer. A few enterprises are still holding steady and wait-and-see. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be stable in the short term, and with the recovery of terminal demand in the future, the price is expected to rise.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 6533 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On February 22, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 6300 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory with tax, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with the last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 7000 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. After the Spring Festival, enterprises have resumed work one after another, and the downstream market demand is better. Individual enterprises have raised their quotations.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2270 yuan / ton on February 22, and 2277 yuan / ton on February 25, with a price increase of 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect polyoxymethylene or consolidation based.

1、 Price trend

Domestic EPS market continues to rise, with 10800-11100 yuan / ton of common materials and 11100-11400 yuan / ton of fuel in Jiangsu Province. The continuous rise of styrene has driven the EPS market to strengthen, and the merchants are reluctant to sell at low prices, but the market resistance to high prices is rising, and the overall transaction is just needed.

2、 Market analysis

Ex factory: the ex factory price of Zhongshan Taida EPS rose, the acceptance delivery price of ordinary materials was 11400 yuan / ton, the acceptance delivery price of fuel was 11700 yuan / ton, and the firm offer was negotiated.

3、 Future forecast

It is expected that the domestic EPS price will be stronger in the short term.