According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic synthetic rubber price rose and fell in July. The price of CIS polybutadiene rubber BR9000 was 12310 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then rose to the monthly highest point of 14690 yuan / ton, and fell to 14080 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 14.38%; At the beginning of February, the price of emulsion polybutylene 1502 was 12616 yuan / ton, and then rose to the monthly highest point of 14258 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price dropped to 13566 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.53%.

In July, the domestic synthetic rubber market rose and fell, and the ex factory price of synthetic rubber rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the ex warehouse pricing of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13900 yuan / ton, and Jihua / Fushun 1502 reported 13200 yuan / ton; The middle and lower reaches have some resistance to high priced rubber, and the merchants mainly offer high prices and drop shipments. According to the business agency, the mainstream prices in Shunding markets such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan, Sichuan and Qixiang are around 13900 ~ 14300 yuan / ton; Jihua, Fushun, Yangzi and Qilu emulsion polybutylbenzene 1502 mainstream report 13000 ~ 13700 yuan / ton.

In July, the commencement of butadiene styrene butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber changed slightly.

CIS polybutadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Yantai Haopu 60000t / A Shutdown for maintenance in the first and middle of July

Shandong Wanda 50000 T / A parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 T / A On July 14, the two lines began to stop gradually

Qilu Petrochemical 70000t / A normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 t / A normal operation

yanshan petrochemical 150000t / A Shutdown of rare earth CIS butadiene unit and normal operation of high CIS butadiene unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 T / A parking

Taiwan rubber Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Xinjiang Lande 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Sinochem 100000 / year Restart commissioning

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year normal operation

Styrene butadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Qilu Petrochemical 230000 T / A normal operation

Jilin Petrochemical 140000 T / A 7.1-7.21 annual leave of parking rack

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 t / A Two line operation

Shenhua chemical 170000 T / A normal operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Fushun Petrochemical 200000 t / A Three line operation

Bridgestone 50000 / year Front line operation

Zhejiang Weitai 100000 / year normal operation

Hangzhou Yibang 100000 / year The first line 7.6 restarts production 1712 and the first line 7.14 restarts production 1502

In July, raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to be supported by too much. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the price of butadiene was 11312 yuan / ton, up 27.79% from 8852 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; In July, the raw material styrene was shaken and consolidated, and the support for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the price of styrene was 9337 yuan / ton, up 0.81% from 9262 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the price of natural rubber rebounded slightly near 13000 yuan / ton, and it is still bad for synthetic rubber in the short term. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 30, the price of domestic natural rubber was 13107 yuan / ton, up 5.96% from 12370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the low price of natural rubber is still bad for cis-butylbenzene, but cis-butylbenzene and SBR have plant maintenance plans in the later stage. In addition, the supply of raw butadiene is tight and the price is high. It is expected that cis-butylbenzene and SBR will fluctuate widely in the later stage.

In July, the market of nitrile rubber went up. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 20900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 22200 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 6.22% compared with the beginning of the month.

The supply of NBR in China is basically stable, the ex factory price of NBR increases, and the demand is just based on demand. It is understood that the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile increased in July. As of July 31, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 20000 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21100 yuan / ton and 3308e reported 22000 yuan / ton. The downstream of nitrile rubber is purchased on demand, and the trader’s offer basically follows the factory price.

Nitrile rubber enterprise and brand Ex factory price at the beginning of the month Ex factory price at the end of the month

Lanhua nitrile n41e 18500 yuan / ton 20000 yuan / ton

Lanhua nitrile 3305e 19600 yuan / ton 21100 yuan / ton

Lanhua nitrile 3308e 20500 yuan / ton 22000 yuan / ton

Sinopec Sibur nitrile 2665 high temperature 18420 yuan / ton 20500 yuan / ton

Sinopec Sibur nitrile 3365 high temperature 18820 yuan / ton 20100 yuan / ton

Shunze nitrile 3355 / 3365 19800 yuan / ton 20800 yuan / ton

Shunze nitrile 3380 20500 yuan / ton 21300 yuan / ton

In July, raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to be supported by too much. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 31, the price of butadiene was 11312 yuan / ton, up 27.79% from 8852 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that at present, the supply and demand of NBR is relatively stable, while the cost is rising sharply. It is expected that NBR will be strongly supported by cost in the later stage.

1、 Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise in July. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2100.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 2266.67 yuan / ton on July 30, a sharp increase of 7.94%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite was acceptable. The centralized maintenance in the early stage led to the overall low inventory of domestic sodium pyrosulfite. At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise. After the manufacturer resumed production, the factory price continued to increase within months, driving the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to continue to rise. Downstream rigid demand will not decrease, which will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite. At the end of the month, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 2200-2500 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated near 2300-2400 yuan / ton.

In July, the high price of domestic soda ash rose by 13.58% again, and the price of sulfur rose by 0.2% within the month. The price of upstream raw materials continued to rise, and the cost continued to increase, which will further support the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost is high and the downstream demand is not reduced. The domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to continue to rise in August.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14550 yuan / ton on July 19 and 14500 yuan / ton on July 25. Caprolactam prices fell 0.34% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of July 25, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15250 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 15000 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 15000 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 15000 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to fall this week. As of the weekend, the average price of pure benzene was 8210 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from the beginning of the month. After the price of pure benzene fell this week, the trading atmosphere was active, the prices in some regions picked up slightly, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong continued to fall until the weekend. The downstream PA6 plant started at a low level.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that due to the weak trend of raw material pure benzene recently, there is a lack of good news on the demand side. Some enterprises restart the plant maintenance, some enterprises plan maintenance, and the supply has not changed yet. It is no longer expected that the price of caprolactam will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Spot market: according to the monitoring of business agency, recently, the price of pure polyester yarn in the market rose and fell. As of July 20, the price of 32S pure polyester yarn in Shandong was about 14450 yuan / ton, the same as last week. In the recent pure polyester yarn market, under the continuous rise of raw material prices, the quotations of yarn factories are generally higher, but according to some manufacturers, the actual shipment is not too optimistic, there are still few large downstream orders, and the purchase enthusiasm is not high; The high count yarn market has better shipments, tight supply and rising prices; For this wave of price increase, it is mainly driven by upstream raw materials. The inventory of the yarn factory is basically small, and the manufacturer’s mentality is basically good.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: in terms of futures, on July 27, the contract price of polyester staple fiber 2109 closed at 7276 yuan, down 0.74% from the previous trading day; In terms of spot, the short fiber market continued to fluctuate and rise in the futures recently, and the short fiber price rose steadily. However, compared with the early delivery volume, the inventory of short fiber manufacturers increased, the atmosphere was mainly wait-and-see, the price was consolidated in stability, and the local increase was relatively limited. Although the downstream yarn mills are more wait-and-see and have low purchasing enthusiasm, they have a good mentality and relatively good confidence. The advance price of Sinopec polyester short is 7500 yuan / ton, the price of Dahua outside the province is 7300 yuan / ton, the current price of China chemical fiber polyester short in Sichuan is about 4700-5000 yuan / ton, and the price of imitation Dahua is about 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: the arrival of the 6th strong typhoon “fireworks” this year has had a certain impact on textile enterprises in Zhejiang Province and Shaoxing City, and some consignment lines have been affected. Due to the influence of typhoon and heavy rainfall, the flood control and anti insurance work increased, the fabric supply shrank month on month in the future summer, the spot transaction of fabric in summer decreased month on month, the fabric procurement in autumn was insufficient, the startup rate of weaving enterprises gradually decreased, and the market trend was partial weak.

Suggestion: continue to pay attention to the impact of upstream raw materials and the demand of downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week. On July 19, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6033 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6133 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.66% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic trading of chlorinated paraffin was OK this week, and the market rose steadily. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5600-6000 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei is 5000-6000 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5500-6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the overall price of liquid wax this week is stable, the terminal purchases on demand, and the market has no waves for the time being. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been slightly adjusted, and it is mainly stable in other regions.

3、 Future forecast

Business society chlorinated paraffin analysts believe. Although the raw material market of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week, the production and sales of chlorinated paraffin Market were balanced, and the downstream demand was acceptable. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10966 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10966 yuan / ton. The price was stable, up 37.08% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic PS market is stable and small, affected by the low start-up of PS, the supply of goods in the market is tight, the shipping pressure of merchants is small, and the local low delivery at the beginning of the week improved slightly. However, due to the impact of the sharp decline of crude oil and the decline after the rise of styrene on Tuesday, the market risk appetite tightened again, and the profit giving shipments of merchants increased, but the overall fluctuation range was small.

Affected by the restart of Huizhou Renxin PS unit and yaside modified benzene unit, the PS operating rate increased to 71.17%. The shipment of modified benzene is general, with an inventory of 67300 tons this week. According to the data, on July 22, 2021, the price of benzene in East China market was 10850-11950 yuan / ton, with stable month on month at the low end and stable month on month at the high end.

3、 Future forecast

At present, downstream terminal enterprises are generally interested in high-level goods receiving, domestic sales and exports are restricted by different factors, production enthusiasm is not high, supply and demand may continue to be in a stalemate, and the PS market is expected to be consolidated in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. On July 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price was 8630 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (July 18), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8600 yuan / ton (average price was 8530 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.16%, compared with last week; It was 171.66% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Internationally, the overall international crude oil fell this week, while the pure benzene in Asia rose slightly. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory remained low, pure benzene spot market is still tight supply. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (July 16) was US $1043 / T, up US $18 / T or 1.76% from July 9; The import reference price of East China was US $1065 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.09% from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene dropped continuously this week. On July 16, the price of sample enterprises was 9312.5 yuan / ton, down 1.97% compared with last week and up 73.52% compared with the same period last year. Due to profit and fault problems, some factories have the performance of decrease and short-term parking. However, with the expected restart of the maintenance unit, the supply side is expected to increase significantly in the short term, which can not provide favorable support for the price of styrene.

Aniline: aniline softened again this week. Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. The price in Shandong is 9400-9600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + may further increase production and crude oil may fall from a high level. In addition, the epidemic situation is still affecting the recovery process of economy and crude oil demand. In the future, attention will be paid to OPEC + decision on further production increase, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, US dollar exchange rate, etc.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: pure benzene price may be loose, affecting the cost support point of styrene. On the supply side, with the restart of Jihua, the parking of Huajin in North China and the recovery of some large plants in East China after a short production reduction, the overall start-up and supply of styrene will increase next week, while the demand side’s three major downstream industries are still dominated by the current situation, with little possibility of demand increment. Moreover, most of the plants are contract oriented, and the spot purchasing atmosphere is still not optimistic. Styrene or shock may fall back.

Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II is expected to have new pure benzene output, supply increase, the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Acetic anhydride prices plummeted

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the cost of raw materials fell this week, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to plummet. As of July 19, the price of acetic anhydride was 9825.00 yuan / ton, down 13.05% compared with 11300.00 yuan / ton on July 12 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on July 1, 12166.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 19.25%.

Raw material cost down

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, this week, the price of acetic acid continued the previous trend and plummeted. In July, the price of acetic acid dropped by 19%, and this week, the price of acetic acid dropped by 9%. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the rising power of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of decline increased.

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price first fell and then rose in July, and the overall methanol market tended to be stable in July. This week, methanol prices rose, acetic anhydride costs rose slightly, acetic anhydride pressure weakened, rising momentum still exists.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the price of acetic acid continued to plummet this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply. In the future, methanol price fluctuates and rises, acetic acid cost rises, acetic acid enterprise’s enthusiasm for starting decreases, acetic acid enterprise’s operating rate is expected to decline, acetic acid supply is reduced, acetic acid price decline is expected to slow down and stabilize, acetic anhydride cost is expected to stabilize, acetic anhydride falling pressure is weakened, acetic anhydride market is expected to slow down in the future, acetic anhydride price fluctuates slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable this week, mainly on the wait-and-see basis. As of July 18, the average price of hydrogenated maleic anhydride remained at about 11500 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with July 12 and increased by 17.35% compared with the same period last month.

On July 18, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 108.33, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.40% compared with the highest point of 123.67 points (2017-12-26) in the cycle, and increased by 111.66% compared with the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started to increase this week. International crude oil shock downward, leading to domestic chemical prices have been reduced; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the lower reaches rose, and the resin market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, which mainly focused on the purchase of just needed resin. As of the 18th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 11300 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 11500 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 12000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. On July 11, the average price of pure benzene was 8630 yuan / ton, and on July 18, the average price of pure benzene was 8530 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.16% from last week. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell this week. On July 12, the price of hydrogenated benzene was 8600.00 yuan / ton, and on July 18, the price of hydrogenated benzene was 8475.00 yuan / ton, down 1.45%. The price of n-butane rose, and the price in Shandong was 4480 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the 28th week of 2021 (7.12-7.16), there were 39 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (20.27%), dimethyl carbonate (17.00%) and butadiene (13.57%). A total of 26 kinds of commodities declined month on month, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were acetic anhydride (- 8.19%), acetic acid (- 7.35%) and n-propanol (- 4.17%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.08%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the international crude oil shock falls, maleic anhydride market price is high, spot is limited, downstream resin demand is just needed, it is expected that the near future maleic anhydride market price high shock.