1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week. On July 19, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6033 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6133 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.66% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic trading of chlorinated paraffin was OK this week, and the market rose steadily. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5600-6000 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei is 5000-6000 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5500-6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the overall price of liquid wax this week is stable, the terminal purchases on demand, and the market has no waves for the time being. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been slightly adjusted, and it is mainly stable in other regions.

3、 Future forecast

Business society chlorinated paraffin analysts believe. Although the raw material market of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week, the production and sales of chlorinated paraffin Market were balanced, and the downstream demand was acceptable. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10966 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10966 yuan / ton. The price was stable, up 37.08% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic PS market is stable and small, affected by the low start-up of PS, the supply of goods in the market is tight, the shipping pressure of merchants is small, and the local low delivery at the beginning of the week improved slightly. However, due to the impact of the sharp decline of crude oil and the decline after the rise of styrene on Tuesday, the market risk appetite tightened again, and the profit giving shipments of merchants increased, but the overall fluctuation range was small.

Affected by the restart of Huizhou Renxin PS unit and yaside modified benzene unit, the PS operating rate increased to 71.17%. The shipment of modified benzene is general, with an inventory of 67300 tons this week. According to the data, on July 22, 2021, the price of benzene in East China market was 10850-11950 yuan / ton, with stable month on month at the low end and stable month on month at the high end.

3、 Future forecast

At present, downstream terminal enterprises are generally interested in high-level goods receiving, domestic sales and exports are restricted by different factors, production enthusiasm is not high, supply and demand may continue to be in a stalemate, and the PS market is expected to be consolidated in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. On July 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price was 8630 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (July 18), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8600 yuan / ton (average price was 8530 yuan / ton). The average price fell by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.16%, compared with last week; It was 171.66% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Internationally, the overall international crude oil fell this week, while the pure benzene in Asia rose slightly. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory remained low, pure benzene spot market is still tight supply. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (July 16) was US $1043 / T, up US $18 / T or 1.76% from July 9; The import reference price of East China was US $1065 / T, up US $1 / T or 0.09% from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene dropped continuously this week. On July 16, the price of sample enterprises was 9312.5 yuan / ton, down 1.97% compared with last week and up 73.52% compared with the same period last year. Due to profit and fault problems, some factories have the performance of decrease and short-term parking. However, with the expected restart of the maintenance unit, the supply side is expected to increase significantly in the short term, which can not provide favorable support for the price of styrene.

Aniline: aniline softened again this week. Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. The price in Shandong is 9400-9600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + may further increase production and crude oil may fall from a high level. In addition, the epidemic situation is still affecting the recovery process of economy and crude oil demand. In the future, attention will be paid to OPEC + decision on further production increase, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, US dollar exchange rate, etc.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: pure benzene price may be loose, affecting the cost support point of styrene. On the supply side, with the restart of Jihua, the parking of Huajin in North China and the recovery of some large plants in East China after a short production reduction, the overall start-up and supply of styrene will increase next week, while the demand side’s three major downstream industries are still dominated by the current situation, with little possibility of demand increment. Moreover, most of the plants are contract oriented, and the spot purchasing atmosphere is still not optimistic. Styrene or shock may fall back.

Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II is expected to have new pure benzene output, supply increase, the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Acetic anhydride prices plummeted

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the cost of raw materials fell this week, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to plummet. As of July 19, the price of acetic anhydride was 9825.00 yuan / ton, down 13.05% compared with 11300.00 yuan / ton on July 12 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the price of acetic anhydride on July 1, 12166.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 19.25%.

Raw material cost down

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, this week, the price of acetic acid continued the previous trend and plummeted. In July, the price of acetic acid dropped by 19%, and this week, the price of acetic acid dropped by 9%. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the rising power of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of decline increased.

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price first fell and then rose in July, and the overall methanol market tended to be stable in July. This week, methanol prices rose, acetic anhydride costs rose slightly, acetic anhydride pressure weakened, rising momentum still exists.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the price of acetic acid continued to plummet this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply. In the future, methanol price fluctuates and rises, acetic acid cost rises, acetic acid enterprise’s enthusiasm for starting decreases, acetic acid enterprise’s operating rate is expected to decline, acetic acid supply is reduced, acetic acid price decline is expected to slow down and stabilize, acetic anhydride cost is expected to stabilize, acetic anhydride falling pressure is weakened, acetic anhydride market is expected to slow down in the future, acetic anhydride price fluctuates slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable this week, mainly on the wait-and-see basis. As of July 18, the average price of hydrogenated maleic anhydride remained at about 11500 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with July 12 and increased by 17.35% compared with the same period last month.

On July 18, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 108.33, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.40% compared with the highest point of 123.67 points (2017-12-26) in the cycle, and increased by 111.66% compared with the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started to increase this week. International crude oil shock downward, leading to domestic chemical prices have been reduced; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the lower reaches rose, and the resin market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, which mainly focused on the purchase of just needed resin. As of the 18th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 11300 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 11500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 11500 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 12000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. On July 11, the average price of pure benzene was 8630 yuan / ton, and on July 18, the average price of pure benzene was 8530 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.16% from last week. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell this week. On July 12, the price of hydrogenated benzene was 8600.00 yuan / ton, and on July 18, the price of hydrogenated benzene was 8475.00 yuan / ton, down 1.45%. The price of n-butane rose, and the price in Shandong was 4480 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the 28th week of 2021 (7.12-7.16), there were 39 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (20.27%), dimethyl carbonate (17.00%) and butadiene (13.57%). A total of 26 kinds of commodities declined month on month, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were acetic anhydride (- 8.19%), acetic acid (- 7.35%) and n-propanol (- 4.17%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.08%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the international crude oil shock falls, maleic anhydride market price is high, spot is limited, downstream resin demand is just needed, it is expected that the near future maleic anhydride market price high shock.

According to the price monitoring data of the business club, as of July 16, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 6900 yuan / ton, which was 300 yuan / ton lower than that on July 12, a decrease of 4.17%; Compared with the price on July 1, the average price decreased by 1000 yuan / ton, or 12.66%.

At the beginning of July, a large factory in Shandong Province opened a new n-propanol production plant, the supply of n-propanol increased, and the market price of n-propanol decreased. In addition, the factory price of n-propanol loose water of the large factory was 6100 yuan / ton, and the suppliers of n-propanol in the factory fell one after another. Entering this week, on the 15th, the secondary market price of n-propanol in Shandong region of China decreased again by 400-500 yuan / ton. At present, as of July 16, the factory price of n-propanol loose water in Shandong Province is around 6100-7100 yuan / ton, and the market is still weak and stable. In Nanjing, the factory price of n-propanol loose water is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the market is stable. Because dealers and traders have reservations about the price, it is not easy to monitor the commodity price. The specific price is negotiated on a single basis. In addition, the quotation of each region is also different. The price is for reference only.

As for upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the recent external price of ethylene fluctuated, showing an overall upward trend. On July 14, the price was US $1037.00/ton, and on July 16, the average price of ethylene was US $1048.75/ton, up 1.13%. The current price fell by 1.89% on a month on month basis, and the current price rose by 41.39% on a year-on-year basis. In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. The price of ethylene in Asia rose. As of the 14th, CFR closed at US $995-1005 / T in Northeast Asia and US $960-970 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 23rd, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1159-1169 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1062-1072 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 23rd, the price was $1152-1169 / ton. The recent external market of ethylene has been mixed. The price of ethylene in the U.S. has increased a lot in the early stage, but has dropped in the near future. On the whole, the external market demand of ethylene is good in the near future, the buying atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

Forecast of the future trend of propanol

At present, the domestic n-propanol market has dropped to a low point, and the current downstream demand is normal. Therefore, the n-propanol analysts of business club believe that in the short term, the n-propanol market will mainly maintain a weak consolidation operation.

From July 5 to July 9, 2021, the market price of antimony ingot in East China was temporarily stable, with a price of 55000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 58000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.45%.

The antimony commodity index on July 11 was 80.74, flat with yesterday, down 21.09% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.86% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This week, antimony ingot market price is stable and upward, manufacturers pricing mentality is strong, this week’s market shipment has a small improvement, but the overall is still low. There is a certain reserve demand in the downstream, which supports the strong price trend of antimony ingot.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there were 16 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month, of which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (8.54%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (8.20%) and neodymium oxide (6.17%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were titanium concentrate (- 2.29%), silver (- 2.02%) and aluminum (- 1.26%). This week, the average rise or fall was 1.61%, and most of the nonferrous metal market prices rose.

As of July 12, the domestic market of antimony ingot is 54500 yuan / ton for 2, 59000 yuan / ton for 1 and 60000 yuan / ton for 0.

Antimony ingot manufacturers have a strong intention to raise prices. It is expected that antimony ingot prices will fluctuate and strengthen in the future. At present, the lower reaches have a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the purchase is mostly on demand.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 7100 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 47.92%. The price trend of domestic PX market was temporarily stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high due to the impact. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil has declined, and the trend of PX external price has remained high. As of the 8th, the closing price of Asian region is 892-894 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 910-912 US dollars / ton CFR China. In recent years, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia has not changed much. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asian region is more than 60%, the supply of PX in Asian region is general, and the PX external price has remained high, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at US $72.94/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was at US $74.12/barrel. Previously, affected by the stranding of OPEC negotiations, oil prices fell for two consecutive days, with a significant decline. The rebound on Thursday was mainly supported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) commercial crude oil inventory data, which showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected last week. Crude oil prices fell slightly this week, which was bad for domestic petrochemical prices, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches declined. As of the 9th, the average price of PTA market was 4950-5000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.18% this week. International crude oil prices have declined, and the role of cost support has weakened. The PTA plant has been running stably in the near future, and the supply side has performed normally. This week, the PTA operation rate is about 81.5%. The PTA delivery situation is general, and the on-site delivery situation is general. However, the pressure of new production capacity is still huge, and the price is lack of action on the trend. Polyester production and marketing has little change, the international epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, but the follow-up orders of the textile industry are weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is still downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price was affected by crude oil, the price fell, the downstream market was general, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.

Business community PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the current cost performance is general, short-term crude oil prices fluctuate high, coupled with the downstream PTA and textile market trend has risen, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will remain stable in the future.

The prices of some domestic suppliers have been raised, and the business offers are firm, so it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of July 6, the domestic butadiene market price was 8962 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 17.99%, and a year-on-year increase of 158.03%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is about 9550-9600 yuan / ton; The self provided price of East China is 9100-9300 yuan / ton.

The domestic butadiene market rose slightly, the prices of some suppliers increased, and the downstream construction began to recover gradually, which supported the middleman’s offer to keep up with the rise, making it difficult to find low-cost goods in the market.

In terms of enterprises, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 T / a butadiene plant has been running steadily, with a small amount of goods exported, and the latest price is 9100 yuan / T. Liaotong chemical’s 120000 T / a butadiene plant is in normal operation, and the main source of goods is downstream pipeline transportation, and there is no online export of goods.

External price: as of July 5, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1365-1375 / T; CFR China closed at US $1305-1315 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1845-1855 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1395-1405 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1365-1375 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 1305-1315 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1845-1855 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1395-1405 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

Affected by the rise of the external market, the domestic supplier prices were firm, which boosted the business offer to keep up with the rise. Although some downstream units have been restarted, the poor performance of the terminal industry has led to cautious inquiries from downstream butadiene users. Business analysts expect the market to sort out slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business club, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 1955 yuan / ton, and on July 5, the average market price was 1988.33 yuan / ton, up 1.7%, 46.56% over the same period last year. Coking coal price is high.

On July 4, the coking coal commodity index was 144.28, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 221.26% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

According to the business community, in terms of supply and origin, after the end of July 1, the limited production coal mines resumed production one after another, and the on-site inventory increased. Considering the environmental protection policy, the supply of coking coal is still relatively tight for the time being.

Demand: the inventory of some coke enterprises has declined, the inventory in the yard is at a low level, and the downstream steel enterprises have resumed production in succession. At present, the support for coke is OK, but the overall market is cautious and wait-and-see.

According to the coking coal analysts of business society, in terms of origin, after the end of July 1, the production of coal mines with limited production has been resumed one after another, and the inventory in the field has increased. Considering the environmental protection policy, the supply of coking coal is still relatively tight for the time being, the inventory of some coking enterprises has declined, the inventory in the field is at a low level, and the downstream steel enterprises have also resumed production. At present, the support for coke is OK, But on the whole, we are cautious and wait-and-see. Generally speaking, the short-term coking coal is mainly operated at high level, and the specific demand of the downstream market.