1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2137.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2187.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.37%, 58.13% over the same period last year. On August 12, the commodity index of light soda ash was 110.90, up 1.28 points from yesterday, down 5.91% from the highest point of 117.86 points in the cycle (November 21, 2017), and up 75.61% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2200-2300 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2100-2200 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated.

Demand: glass prices are stable this week. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of the glass market is 38.62 yuan / m2. The glass spot market is basically stable, the trading market atmosphere is light, and the prices in some regions are adjusted sporadically. The shipments of enterprises in Shahe, North China are acceptable, the quotations of some manufacturers are slightly reduced, and the transactions of traders are more flexible. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is general, and the quotation is basically stable. The production and sales in Central China are OK, and the shipment speed slows down. Glass shipments in South China are generally limited to films in some regions, and downstream processing enterprises are cautious when the quotation is high. On the whole, the manufacturers are mainly price stabilizing, the downstream is more wait-and-see, the procurement is more cautious, and the traders’ transactions are more flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 31st week of 2021 (8.2-8.6), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodities falling and 4 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.03%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is light, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Downstream glass prices are stable, which is still in a wait-and-see state for high priced soda ash. Generally speaking, soda ash tends to be strong in the later stage, and the market operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

On August 11, the international oil price rebounded continuously and rose for two consecutive days. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $69.25/barrel, an increase of $0.96 or 1.40%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.44/barrel, an increase of $0.81 or 1.0%. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell last week, improved U.S. employment data and improved liquidity boosted fuel consumption, and the Biden government said it would not support U.S. oil companies to increase production, and supply expectations were good for oil prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell this week. On August 1, the price of pure benzene was 7900-8150 yuan / ton (average price 8170 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 8), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7620 yuan / ton). The average price fell 550 yuan / ton, or 6.73%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 122.16%.

2、 Analysis and review

During the week, the prices of crude oil and Asian pure benzene fell sharply. Affected by the epidemic in China, the logistics in many places was limited and the shipment of enterprises was blocked; The downstream operating rate decreased, the production of new units was delayed, the demand decreased, and multiple negative factors suppressed, and pure benzene continued to weaken this week. This week, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered twice, a total of 450 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 6) was US $979 / T, down US $31 / T or 3.07% month on week compared with July 30; The reference import price in East China was US $996 / T, down US $26.5/t or 2.59% month on month on July 30.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has suppressed the atmosphere of the crude oil market, OPEC + has gradually increased production since August, and negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory have suppressed, resulting in a sharp decline in international oil prices this week. On July 30, Brent fell $5.63 / barrel, or 7.38%; WTI fell US $5.67/barrel, or 7.67%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene continued to decline this week. On August 6, the price of sample enterprises was 9000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from last week and up 67.7% from the same period last year. At the beginning of August, the port inventory increased, and there was still expectation of accumulated inventory in a short time. In addition, the supply of Gulei styrene was increasing, and the downstream demand was general. It was mainly just needed to purchase, and the replenishment was limited.

Aniline: positive: the price of raw materials fell, and the profit space of aniline rebounded; The inventory of aniline enterprises is not high, and some units are still in shutdown. Bad: affected by the epidemic in some areas, logistics is limited, factory shipments are blocked, and prices are down slightly. The price in Shandong is 10400-10600 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global spread of mutated virus and the increase of crude oil production may depress the oil price, and the oil price trend is expected to be weak next week. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: in August, the supply of styrene will increase. The downstream maintenance units have been restarted one after another. It just needs to recover, but the increment is expected to be limited. In addition, the upstream pure benzene is expected to be weak, and the short-term styrene market is expected to be weak and volatile.

Although the shipment of pure benzene enterprises is blocked and the downstream demand is insufficient, the price continues to decline, and the downstream profit space rebounds, or stimulates purchase. It is expected that the pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week. Pay attention to the impact of logistics, downstream market, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on August 9, the average price of domestic LNG was 5473.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.26% over the previous day, 6.35% over the beginning of the month and 121.59% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Looking back last week, the domestic LNG market showed an up-down-up trend. At the beginning of the week, the price continued to rise, but at the beginning of the week, the high level fell back. On August 3, the one-day decline exceeded 7%, and then made up a slight decline. At the weekend, the price stopped falling and rebounded, and the market rose again. On August 9, after the rise over the weekend, the domestic LNG market continued to rise. The prices of Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places generally increased, and some areas fell slightly, but there is no doubt that the market focus has shifted upward. This round of liquid prices stopped rising, benefiting from the cost support, the tight price of imported gas goods was boosted, and after the liquid price fell last week, the heat of downstream inquiry increased. At the same time, some liquid plants recently planned to shut down for maintenance, tighten the supply, lay more profits, and the domestic liquid price market continued to run strong in the off-season. At present, 5150-5550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 5400-5550 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 5330-5630 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5360-5520 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5350-5600 yuan / ton in Henan and 5200-5400 yuan / ton in Hebei. The inlet gas price is about 4600-5950 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and export gas price increase hand in hand, and the price difference is small.

region Specifications August 9th August 6th Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 5150-5550 4850-5250 + 300/+300

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 5400-5550 4890-5100 + 510/+450

Shanxi liquified natural gas 5330-5630 4900-5300 + 430/+330

Ningxia liquified natural gas 5360-5520 5000-5100 + 360/+410

Henan liquified natural gas 5350-5600 5300-5500 + 50/+100

Hebei liquified natural gas 5200-5400 5300-5450 – 100/-50

The higher price of domestic liquefied natural gas has driven the rise of downstream products

At present, there is no transaction in the methanol market in central Shandong. The negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 10-20 yuan / ton to 2480-2500 yuan / ton. The factory offered cash exchange. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to about 2480 yuan / ton and sent it to cash exchange. The offer price of logistics goods is not available for the time being. Trading is limited. There is no transaction in the methanol market in northern Shandong.

Dichloromethane, on August 9, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable. Today, the manufacturers generally reported stability. The amount of ammonia in this area gradually accumulated. Although large factories are facing maintenance, due to the impact of the epidemic, the traffic is affected to a certain extent, the manufacturer’s shipment speed slows down and the inventory is significantly higher than that in the early stage. At present, the mainstream price in the region is 4650-4750 yuan / ton. It is expected that the overhaul unit will tighten the output, the ammonia volume will gradually decrease, and the price will stabilize or rebound.

On August 9, the urea market in Shandong fell, the price of upstream LNG fell slightly recently, and the cost support weakened. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, the cost support is strong, and the high price of imported gas continues to boost the domestic liquid price. After the early price adjustment, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant has improved, and the sentiment of supporting the market is strong. In the short term, the domestic LNG market is strong, and the price continues to rise.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 9166 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 91633 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.36%.

The domestic price of activated carbon has been reduced slightly. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; The downstream of domestic activated carbon is delivered on demand, and the market is lack of good news support, and the downstream is mainly wait-and-see.

Activated carbon is rich in raw materials, including coal, sawdust and straw. Activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: the downstream demand of the activated carbon market is general, and the on-site trading lacks positive boost. It is expected that the short-term activated carbon market may be dominated by weak operation.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic synthetic rubber price rose and fell in July. The price of CIS polybutadiene rubber BR9000 was 12310 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then rose to the monthly highest point of 14690 yuan / ton, and fell to 14080 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 14.38%; At the beginning of February, the price of emulsion polybutylene 1502 was 12616 yuan / ton, and then rose to the monthly highest point of 14258 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price dropped to 13566 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.53%.

In July, the domestic synthetic rubber market rose and fell, and the ex factory price of synthetic rubber rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the ex warehouse pricing of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company was 13900 yuan / ton, and Jihua / Fushun 1502 reported 13200 yuan / ton; The middle and lower reaches have some resistance to high priced rubber, and the merchants mainly offer high prices and drop shipments. According to the business agency, the mainstream prices in Shunding markets such as Daqing, Qilu, Yanshan, Sichuan and Qixiang are around 13900 ~ 14300 yuan / ton; Jihua, Fushun, Yangzi and Qilu emulsion polybutylbenzene 1502 mainstream report 13000 ~ 13700 yuan / ton.

In July, the commencement of butadiene styrene butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber changed slightly.

CIS polybutadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Yantai Haopu 60000t / A Shutdown for maintenance in the first and middle of July

Shandong Wanda 50000 T / A parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 T / A On July 14, the two lines began to stop gradually

Qilu Petrochemical 70000t / A normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 t / A normal operation

yanshan petrochemical 150000t / A Shutdown of rare earth CIS butadiene unit and normal operation of high CIS butadiene unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 T / A parking

Taiwan rubber Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Xinjiang Lande 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Sinochem 100000 / year Restart commissioning

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year normal operation

Styrene butadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Qilu Petrochemical 230000 T / A normal operation

Jilin Petrochemical 140000 T / A 7.1-7.21 annual leave of parking rack

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 t / A Two line operation

Shenhua chemical 170000 T / A normal operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Fushun Petrochemical 200000 t / A Three line operation

Bridgestone 50000 / year Front line operation

Zhejiang Weitai 100000 / year normal operation

Hangzhou Yibang 100000 / year The first line 7.6 restarts production 1712 and the first line 7.14 restarts production 1502

In July, raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to be supported by too much. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the price of butadiene was 11312 yuan / ton, up 27.79% from 8852 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; In July, the raw material styrene was shaken and consolidated, and the support for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 30, the price of styrene was 9337 yuan / ton, up 0.81% from 9262 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the price of natural rubber rebounded slightly near 13000 yuan / ton, and it is still bad for synthetic rubber in the short term. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 30, the price of domestic natural rubber was 13107 yuan / ton, up 5.96% from 12370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the low price of natural rubber is still bad for cis-butylbenzene, but cis-butylbenzene and SBR have plant maintenance plans in the later stage. In addition, the supply of raw butadiene is tight and the price is high. It is expected that cis-butylbenzene and SBR will fluctuate widely in the later stage.

In July, the market of nitrile rubber went up. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 20900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 22200 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 6.22% compared with the beginning of the month.

The supply of NBR in China is basically stable, the ex factory price of NBR increases, and the demand is just based on demand. It is understood that the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile increased in July. As of July 31, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 20000 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21100 yuan / ton and 3308e reported 22000 yuan / ton. The downstream of nitrile rubber is purchased on demand, and the trader’s offer basically follows the factory price.

Nitrile rubber enterprise and brand Ex factory price at the beginning of the month Ex factory price at the end of the month

Lanhua nitrile n41e 18500 yuan / ton 20000 yuan / ton

Lanhua nitrile 3305e 19600 yuan / ton 21100 yuan / ton

Lanhua nitrile 3308e 20500 yuan / ton 22000 yuan / ton

Sinopec Sibur nitrile 2665 high temperature 18420 yuan / ton 20500 yuan / ton

Sinopec Sibur nitrile 3365 high temperature 18820 yuan / ton 20100 yuan / ton

Shunze nitrile 3355 / 3365 19800 yuan / ton 20800 yuan / ton

Shunze nitrile 3380 20500 yuan / ton 21300 yuan / ton

In July, raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost side continued to be supported by too much. According to the monitoring of business society, as of July 31, the price of butadiene was 11312 yuan / ton, up 27.79% from 8852 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that at present, the supply and demand of NBR is relatively stable, while the cost is rising sharply. It is expected that NBR will be strongly supported by cost in the later stage.

1、 Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise in July. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2100.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 2266.67 yuan / ton on July 30, a sharp increase of 7.94%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite was acceptable. The centralized maintenance in the early stage led to the overall low inventory of domestic sodium pyrosulfite. At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise. After the manufacturer resumed production, the factory price continued to increase within months, driving the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to continue to rise. Downstream rigid demand will not decrease, which will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite. At the end of the month, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 2200-2500 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated near 2300-2400 yuan / ton.

In July, the high price of domestic soda ash rose by 13.58% again, and the price of sulfur rose by 0.2% within the month. The price of upstream raw materials continued to rise, and the cost continued to increase, which will further support the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost is high and the downstream demand is not reduced. The domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to continue to rise in August.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14550 yuan / ton on July 19 and 14500 yuan / ton on July 25. Caprolactam prices fell 0.34% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of July 25, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15250 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 15000 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 15000 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 15000 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 14000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to fall this week. As of the weekend, the average price of pure benzene was 8210 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from the beginning of the month. After the price of pure benzene fell this week, the trading atmosphere was active, the prices in some regions picked up slightly, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong continued to fall until the weekend. The downstream PA6 plant started at a low level.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that due to the weak trend of raw material pure benzene recently, there is a lack of good news on the demand side. Some enterprises restart the plant maintenance, some enterprises plan maintenance, and the supply has not changed yet. It is no longer expected that the price of caprolactam will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Spot market: according to the monitoring of business agency, recently, the price of pure polyester yarn in the market rose and fell. As of July 20, the price of 32S pure polyester yarn in Shandong was about 14450 yuan / ton, the same as last week. In the recent pure polyester yarn market, under the continuous rise of raw material prices, the quotations of yarn factories are generally higher, but according to some manufacturers, the actual shipment is not too optimistic, there are still few large downstream orders, and the purchase enthusiasm is not high; The high count yarn market has better shipments, tight supply and rising prices; For this wave of price increase, it is mainly driven by upstream raw materials. The inventory of the yarn factory is basically small, and the manufacturer’s mentality is basically good.

Upstream polyester staple fiber: in terms of futures, on July 27, the contract price of polyester staple fiber 2109 closed at 7276 yuan, down 0.74% from the previous trading day; In terms of spot, the short fiber market continued to fluctuate and rise in the futures recently, and the short fiber price rose steadily. However, compared with the early delivery volume, the inventory of short fiber manufacturers increased, the atmosphere was mainly wait-and-see, the price was consolidated in stability, and the local increase was relatively limited. Although the downstream yarn mills are more wait-and-see and have low purchasing enthusiasm, they have a good mentality and relatively good confidence. The advance price of Sinopec polyester short is 7500 yuan / ton, the price of Dahua outside the province is 7300 yuan / ton, the current price of China chemical fiber polyester short in Sichuan is about 4700-5000 yuan / ton, and the price of imitation Dahua is about 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

Downstream demand: the arrival of the 6th strong typhoon “fireworks” this year has had a certain impact on textile enterprises in Zhejiang Province and Shaoxing City, and some consignment lines have been affected. Due to the influence of typhoon and heavy rainfall, the flood control and anti insurance work increased, the fabric supply shrank month on month in the future summer, the spot transaction of fabric in summer decreased month on month, the fabric procurement in autumn was insufficient, the startup rate of weaving enterprises gradually decreased, and the market trend was partial weak.

Suggestion: continue to pay attention to the impact of upstream raw materials and the demand of downstream orders.