Although the main manufacturers announced the rise of ex factory prices, it has little guiding significance for the market. It is mainly to stabilize the market. After the National Day holiday, the downstream inquiry and goods taking mood is not high. It is mainly to digest the early inventory. The shipment of traders is not smooth, and the aggregate MDI market is down one after another.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from October 8 to 15, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 23833 yuan / ton to 23810 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 2.74% during the cycle, a price increase of 10.82% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 15.76%.

The market price of domestic aggregated MDI continues to decline, and mainstream dealers actively negotiate shipment, but the purchasing sentiment of downstream terminals is more depressed under the price decline trend; The maintenance of some units in Shanghai has not been completed yet, and the supply of factory goods is still tight this month.

After the National Day holiday, the price of raw material pure benzene rose, and downstream cyclohexanone enterprises actively purchased, pushing up the cyclohexanone market. As the atmosphere began to weaken in the middle of the week, the focus of pure benzene market negotiation continued to decline

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

The raw aniline market rose, the cost rose, the supply was tight, and the aniline rose strongly.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Shanghai Lianheng phase 1 MDI mother liquor plant was shut down for maintenance from September 23 to October 20. The technical transformation and production expansion plan of Wanhua chemical Ningbo plant was put in place at the beginning of November, which is expected to last about 50 days. Part of the 200000 t / a MDI unit in Dongcao, Japan will be overhauled on September 2, but the rest will be overhauled in mid September for about 45 days. It is expected that the unit will be put into production in late October.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly sorted out.

Trade name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (October 14): 19066.67 yuan / ton

On October 14, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price was temporarily stable, up 516.67 yuan / ton or 2.79% compared with the quotation on October 11. The upstream propylene price rises rapidly and the cost support is good. The downstream price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price may rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 19500 yuan / ton.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3590 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on October 13, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. At present, diammonium phosphate enterprises mainly issue early orders and do not receive payment temporarily. There is a large quantity to be issued and the price is stable. Raw material prices remained high, and cost support was favorable.

Future forecast: the price of diammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 14325 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 1287.5 yuan compared with the previous day (8th), a daily increase of 9.88%, an increase of 13.8% compared with the beginning of the month and 112.46% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On October 11, the PVC market rose strongly, and the futures opened up by the limit. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 13075, with a daily increase of 7%, and continued to rise to a new height. The spot market also followed up more actively, with a daily increase of 9.88%, exceeding 112% year-on-year. The increase range of enterprises was huge, about 800-1200 yuan / ton, and the current price was more than 14000, such as Yibin Tianyuan The ex factory price of Shandong Xinfa and other enterprises has risen to about 15000, even higher. Some enterprises have closed their plates and stopped reporting, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere. After the National Day holiday, the price of raw calcium carbide continued to rise to 7800 yuan / ton, and the cost support continued to strengthen. Moreover, the downstream product industry started one after another, and there was a certain demand for replenishment. At the same time, enterprises such as Junzheng in Inner Mongolia and Tianye in Xinjiang planned maintenance, most PVC devices were not full and operated, and the supply side was still tight, which jointly supported the sharp rise of PVC prices.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 14300-15000 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 14280-14400 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 14100-14500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 14300-16500 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to rise.

region workmanship 10 / 11 (yuan / ton) 10 / 8 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 14150-14370 12750-13100 + 1400/+1270 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 14200-14550 13000-13350 + 1200/+1200 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 14230-14740 13130-13210 + 1100/+1530 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 14520-15000 13220-13500 + 1300/+1500 Delivered

International crude oil, on October 11, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.52/barrel, up US $1.17 or 1.47%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.65/barrel, up US $1.26 or 1.53%. Oil prices continued to rebound, mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of power and natural gas in major economies, driving oil prices upward.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose last week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1138.00/t, up 1.13%. The current price fell 2.09% month on month, and the current price rose 46.89% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: the market is optimistic about the demand for crude oil in winter, with tight supply and strong cost support, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

For calcium carbide, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly on October 11, up 200 yuan / ton, or 2.63%, and 186.76% year-on-year over the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal continues to rise sharply. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 3300-3500 yuan / ton, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen sharply recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At present, the power restriction is relaxed and the output of calcium carbide is increased. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 7500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the raw material price is high, and it is not easy to fall quickly in the short term, and the cost support is strong. At the same time, PVC enterprises are still in the maintenance season, the devices are running in multi unsaturated mode, and the market supply is still tight. In addition, the strong disk surface supports the rise of PVC price. It is expected that the PVC price will continue to rise in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price and the information guidance of macro policies.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price October 11: 20950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 11, the market price of titanium dioxide in China was relatively stable. At present, titanium dioxide enterprises are limited, the market starts at a low level, and the inventory pressure is not large. The downstream coating market is affected by dual control and the demand is reduced. The trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate stably in the short term. The actual transaction price shall be negotiated.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (October 9): 8016.67 yuan / ton

On October 9, the formic acid market was stable at a high level, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 32.87% compared with September 9 and 287.90% compared with the same period last year. At present, the price of raw materials is running strongly, the cost support is rising, which boosts the market mentality. The downstream just needs to prepare goods after the festival, and the market trading atmosphere is OK.

It is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market may operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride rose sharply in September

According to the data of business agency, as of September 30, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 13600.00 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 14.29% compared with 11900.00 yuan / ton on September 1.

On September 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 128.12, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 150.33% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The market price of maleic anhydride continued to rise in September, and the rise of international crude oil in September led to the basic rise of domestic chemical prices. Under the influence of local power restriction policies, the operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is down, the resin market is rising, and it is mainly needed to purchase. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 13000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 13800 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, which made the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery rate of American refineries was faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the hydrogenated benzene market showed a “V” trend in September 2021. The ex factory price in North China was 7575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.61%. In September, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene increased 7 times and decreased 4 times, with a cumulative increase of 1050 yuan / ton and a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton. As of September 29, it was 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical was 7650 yuan / ton. In September, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rebounded. The high price of pure benzene in the early stage led to the rise of hydrogenated benzene market. Enterprises started to pick up and actively produced. The starting and parking cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arranged production according to their profits. In terms of n-butane, Shandong price is 5470 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that: at present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited, some factories are pre sold, there is no inventory pressure in the factories, and the supply and demand is good. However, recently, due to the impact of film restrictions in Jiangsu, the start-up of resin is reduced, and the market wait-and-see mood is increased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in October.

In September, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply, especially in the middle and late ten days, and fell significantly at the end of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate rose by 22.49% in the whole month, mainly due to the sharp rise of costs and the shortage of supply side.

Firstly, the rising cost is the direct cause of the soaring price of ethyl acetate. After April 2021, the domestic acetic acid market price broke the historical highest price for the second time, and the prices in East China, North China, South China and surrounding areas broke 9000 yuan / ton one after another. At the end of September, when the National Day holiday is approaching, the downstream has no enthusiasm for purchasing high price acetic acid, and the market is mainly passive and high-level wait-and-see. As of September 29, the price of acetic acid was 8950.00 yuan / ton, up 47.69% from 6060 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of September. Meanwhile, the price of acetic acid fell slightly on September 29.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply and demand, first of all, the supply of ethyl acetate at the supply end is significantly lower than that in the previous month, mainly due to the impact of dual control of energy consumption. Manufacturers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions are obviously affected, and there are too many ethyl acetate maintenance devices. Domestic main manufacturers Jiangsu Baichuan, Yankuang and Taixing Jinjiang have stopped for maintenance successively, resulting in a significant decline in supply, As a result, there is a shortage of goods in the market. Manufacturers and dealers are reluctant to sell, panic buying increases in the market, and prices continue to rise.

On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand, the stock before the festival increased significantly, and the market turnover was slightly large. This is also an important fundamental reason supporting the sharp rebound of ethyl acetate price. However, with the resumption of driving in Baichuan and Yankuang in Jiangsu at the end of the month, the tension of market supply eased, and the end of downstream pre Festival preparation, the purchase intention decreased, and ethyl acetate fell by a strong margin. According to the monitoring of business society, the callback range of ethyl acetate reached – 7.57% in the last week of September.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business society believe that the current rise in the ethyl acetate Market has come to an end, and the decline channel has been opened. The manufacturer’s sharp reduction in the ex factory price in the last week after the festival also confirms that there is no fundamental improvement in demand. Superimposed on the worries about the retreat of the “double control” policy after the festival, the market is unlikely to improve.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price trend of acetic acid rose sharply in September. At the beginning of the month, the quotation of acetic acid was 6060.00 yuan / ton, which soared nearly 3000 yuan in the month. As of September 29, the price of acetic acid rose to 8950.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 47.69%, and on September 27, the price of acetic acid once rushed to 9050.00 yuan / ton, breaking a ten-year high.

As of September 29, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

region September 1st September 18th September 29th

South China 5850-5900 yuan / ton 7200-7300 yuan / ton 8700-8900 yuan / ton

North China 5950-6100 yuan / ton 7200-7400 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5900-6100 yuan / ton 7100-7350 yuan / ton 8900-9050 yuan / ton

Jiangsu region 5850-5950 yuan / ton 7600-7950 yuan / ton 8900-9000 yuan / ton

Zhejiang region 5900-6000 yuan / ton 7650-8000 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton

From the price trend of acetic acid Market in September, the overall fluctuation is that the price is stable at the beginning of the month, and the price of acetic acid rises sharply in the middle and late ten days. In the early stage, the overall supply of goods in the market was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, and the purchase was dominated by rigid demand; After more than a month of wait-and-see operation of acetic acid from mid July, acetic acid has started the soaring mode since September 13, and the market can not be pulled. One day, the price is high, and the enterprise’s single day increase of 800 yuan has even become common. The fundamental reason is that the low operation of domestic acetic acid plants is the main reason. In September, Shandong and Jiangsu acetic acid plants were affected by power restriction and double control, and the operation of some plants is limited; The planned maintenance or failure of acetic acid manufacturers in North China and Northwest China led to the parking of the unit, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the negotiated price rose. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the unit remained low, the supply of goods in the market was tight, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise sharply due to the active promotion of traders in the field.

The market of downstream ethyl acetate rose sharply in September. As of September 29, the quotation was 10300 yuan / ton, an increase of 25.23% over the price of 8225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In September, ethyl acetate manufacturers had a lot of equipment maintenance. The main domestic manufacturers of Jiangsu Baichuan, Yankuang and Taixing Jinjiang successively stopped for maintenance, with low start-up, a sharp decline in supply, tight market supply, and traders’ reluctance to sell, resulting in a tense market atmosphere, and the price of ethyl acetate continued to rise.

Market outlook for acetic acid: Analysts of business society believe that although the current acetic acid market is running at a high level, the supply side enterprises are overhauling their devices, and the inventory is tight, the devices in the field will recover one after another after the national day. In addition, due to the strong demand in the downstream and the attitude of being more resistant to high prices, under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the market outlook may be high or down, Specific attention shall be paid to the commencement of devices in the field after the festival.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on September 30 was 4585 yuan / kg, a decrease of 9.82% compared with the average early trading price of spot market in early September (September 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 17.39%.

On September 30, the spot market price of gold was 363.44 yuan / g, a decrease of from the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price in early September (9.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 7.45%.

Precious metal prices fell endlessly in September, mainly based on investment factors, and the trading logic revolved around the Fed’s interest rate decision.

International macro news

The results of the FOMC meeting in September were generally hawkish. Although the specific taper schedule was not announced, the advance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the dot matrix and Powell’s statement on ending the bond purchase as early as November and mid-2022 at the press conference after the meeting showed a lot of hawkish atmosphere. In its September resolution, the Federal Reserve first determined that it might adjust the pace of asset purchase soon. After the meeting, chairman Powell made it more clear that it might take action even if there was no strong employment data support at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve may announce taper at the FOMC meeting in November at the earliest and officially implement it in December, and end QE around June next year. According to the latest dot matrix, most officials predict that interest rates will be increased by 2023, but some officials support one or two interest rate increases in 2022. In the future, the market’s attention will shift from taper to interest rate hike.

Overall, the improvement of U.S. economic data in September boosted the expectation of the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply. Coupled with weak fundamentals such as capital sentiment and physical demand, precious metal prices were relatively weak in September.

The dollar index strengthened

Since September 6, the US dollar index has stopped falling and bucked the trend, restraining precious metals to a certain extent.

Recently, gold has fallen compared with silver

The gold silver ratio has an increasing trend, which is mainly based on the good bearable performance of gold in the near future, and the recent decline of silver has expanded significantly. The rebound momentum of gold weakened, and the support for silver price weakened. In terms of gold silver ratio, silver valuation is still neutral and high. The overall trend of gold silver ratio since March is upward, which may indicate that risk aversion has increased and inflation expectations have weakened.

Future forecast

Recently, the price of precious metals is still weak.