According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic PTA market continued to fall slightly this week (November 1-5). The average price in the spot market was 4919 yuan / ton, down 4.00% from the beginning of the week and up 52.19% year-on-year. Negative factors such as weak crude oil and contradiction between supply and demand have led to the PTA Market falling for four consecutive weeks.

In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan energy investment 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons of units have been overhauled successively, and the industrial starting load is around 82. However, the PTA market is still in oversupply. Although the number of futures warehouse receipts continues to rise, dispersing the pressure of some spot surplus, there are still secondhand goods selling and currently in the state of accumulating inventory.

Crude oil fell significantly this week after falling sharply due to the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the reduction of bond purchase scale. Although the results of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting were implemented, the increase in production remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, it is reported that Saudi Arabia’s oil production will soon exceed 10 million barrels / day, the supply is tight, the expectation is cooling, and the oil price is under pressure. As of November 4, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.81/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.54/barrel.

The downstream polyester production and marketing is generally flat, the industry operating rate is about 80%, and the factory has limited enthusiasm for PTA spot procurement. As the market price of raw materials continues to decline, the terminal weaving factories are more cautious and wait-and-see, there are few new orders, and maintain the early order production. The comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 65%, the polyester market is gradually weakening, and the price of each product is down by 2-5% this week.

Business analysts believe that the overhaul of some PTA devices and planned overhaul may delay the speed of PTA inventory accumulation. Crude oil demand is improving, there is no basis for continuous decline, the oil market is cautiously bullish, and the cost side is still supported. However, the current downstream polyester production and marketing is not prosperous and the overall operating load is not high, so it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Demand is poor, and PTA prices are expected to remain volatile and decline in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell sharply this week. The quotation fell from 396.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 310.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 21.72%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell sharply this week.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 140 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 230 yuan / ton this weekend, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 240 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid is quoted at 550 yuan / ton this weekend. Compared with last weekend, the quotation is as follows.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid, while the high market prices of downstream silica and ammonium chloride consolidated, which had a positive impact on hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride market are consolidated at a high level, and the downstream purchase intention is good. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 16175 yuan / ton on November 1 and 15950 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of caprolactam fell 1.39% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of caprolactam decreased this week due to the increase of caprolactam supply and the decline of raw materials. As of November 7, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 16000 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 16000 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 16000 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical Liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated. Nanjing fubangte Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 16300 yuan / ton, which is accepted and withdrawn within 6 months, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 400000 tons / year.

The raw material pure benzene fell after rising this week. Driven by the continued rise of crude oil, pure benzene rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week. With the weakening of styrene and the wide decline of crude oil, bulk commodities generally weakened and the price of pure benzene fell. During the week, the market negotiation was light, the shipments of local refining enterprises were general, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the caprolactam analysts of business society, at present, the caprolactam units of some enterprises in the north have been restarted and the supply has increased. The cost is weak, the demand is poor, and some enterprises plan to restart. The supply will continue to increase next week. The price of caprolactam is expected to be under pressure in the short term.

From October 29 to November 5, 2021, the market price of antimony ingots in East China decreased. The price was 80500 yuan / ton last weekend and 79000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1500 yuan / ton, down 1.86%.

Price changes of European Strategic small metal antimony from October 29 to November 5, 2021 (unit: USD / ton)

The market, October 29, November 5, rose and fell

European small metal antimony, 12950., 12950., 0

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

As can be seen from the above figure, the antimony ingot Market has been dominated by consolidation since last week and has entered the downward channel since this week. Recently, there are frequent sources of low-cost goods in the market, and there are certain transactions in the market. The low price supply has affected the market mentality. The downstream price reduction mentality is strong. At present, it is still purchasing on demand, and the downstream purchase intention is weak. Under the herd mentality of buying up rather than buying down, some downstream who intend to purchase also began to wait and see. The overall market atmosphere is cold and trading is limited.

The price of the external market is mainly adjusted at a high level this week, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the price of antimony ingot is still at a historical high, which may be appropriately corrected in the future.

DOTP prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price rose first and then fell this week, and the overall DOTP market fell slightly. As of November 4, the price of DOTP was 12662.50 yuan / ton, down 3.34% from 13100 yuan / ton at the end of last week (October 29); This week, the DOTP price failed to continue the recovery trend at the end of October. The DOTP price fell slightly and the DOTP market fell.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol failed to rebound and rise this week, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell slightly. This week, the price of isooctanol fell slightly due to the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas; Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise, the cost of isooctanol is reduced, the price of isooctanol is under great pressure, the price of isooctanol is reduced, the cost of plasticizer DOTP is reduced, and the downward pressure of DOTP is increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week, and PTA prices fell. At present, the supply and demand pattern of crude oil is good, the cost side of PTA is well supported, the wait-and-see atmosphere of PTA downstream plants is increased, and the purchase enthusiasm is not high, which increases the risk of PTA accumulating inventory. In the short term, PTA price shock is likely to weaken slightly. The price of raw materials fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOTP decreased, which was bad for the DOTP market.

PVC market fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price fell sharply this week. As of November 4, the average price of PVC was 9470 yuan / ton, down 8.06% from 10300 yuan / ton last weekend; The price of PVC fell sharply this week, the demand for plasticizer remained weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers of plasticizer was poor, and the downward pressure on DOTP price was great.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOTP data analyst of business agency, believes that the decline of DOTP market this week is limited by the two-way pressure of cost and demand. On the cost side, the prices of isooctanol and PTA fluctuated slightly, and there is a great possibility of future decline, and the cost support of DOTP weakened; On the demand side, the price of PVC continued to decline, the turnover of PVC enterprises was poor, the demand for plasticizers weakened, and the downward pressure of DOTP was great. Overall, plasticizer DOTP has great downward pressure in the future, and the price of DOTP is expected to fluctuate slightly.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (November 3): 5833.33 yuan / ton

On November 3, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply, down 766.67 yuan / ton or 11.62% compared with the quotation on November 1, up 101.38% compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal fell sharply. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton, and the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened. The downstream PVC market has fallen sharply recently, and downstream customers have poor enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5500 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid East China market price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, in October, the price of domestic adipic acid rose sharply, and the market continued the rise in September. The monthly increase of adipic acid in East China was 14.80%. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The main reason is the cost pull and supply shortage. According to the k-column chart of adipic acid in October of business society, the increase of adipic acid in October was stronger than that in the previous three months.

In terms of market supply, adipic acid manufacturers still have a lot of equipment maintenance this month. During the maintenance period of Shenma and Tianli high tech equipment, two sets of equipment in Tangshan Zhonghao are inspected in turn, and the restart time of Jiangsu Haili is delayed. The overall operating rate of domestic equipment is less than 60%, which is still in a tight supply pattern compared with the previous month. Tight supply is the fundamental reason driving the rise of adipic acid market. However, near the end of the month, the market gradually returned to rationality. With the recovery of some devices, the high price was slightly corrected.

Adipic acid industry chain trend chart

The adipic acid industry chain shows that the cost end is falling and the downstream is weak, but the adipic acid trend is strong, the manufacturer’s profits are greatly improved, and it also brings cost pressure to downstream PA66 and other industries.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

Cyclohexanone market trend chart

In terms of cost, in the first half of October, pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose broadly; Adipic acid continued to rise due to the rising cost, but the price of pure benzene began to fluctuate downward in the second half of the month and fell deeply at the end of the month. However, the price of adipic acid did not fall due to the shortage of supply. The business community monitored that pure benzene fell 3.55% in the whole month.

In addition, the price of cyclohexanone is also a downward trend, and the domestic cyclohexanone market fell in October. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 12760 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 11560 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.40% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 95.38%.

PA66 market trend chart

Terminal demand: from the downstream demand of adipic acid, the demand performance is general, mainly maintaining the stability of rigid demand. According to PA66, the domestic PA66 market was at a high level in October, and the spot prices of various brands were corrected. As of October 29, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 40000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.79% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. As the traditional peak season gradually passed, the demand gradually weakened, the seller’s mentality became loose, and the offer was reduced from high to low. Therefore, the later demand may become an important factor restricting the price of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business society believes that the adipic acid market is still strong in October and stronger than the upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain. The main reason is still the shortage of supply, but the market gradually stabilized at a high level and fell slightly at the end of the month. The main reason is the weak demand. It is expected that the supply will improve with the increase of the operating rate of adipic acid plant, When the downstream demand can not keep up in time, adipic acid will inevitably have a callback risk.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first rose and then fell this month. The quotation first rose from 293.80 yuan / ton on October 1 to 524.00 yuan / ton on October 25, an increase of 230.20 yuan / ton, an increase of 78.35%, and then fell to 396.00 yuan / ton on October 31, a decrease of 24.43%. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid market rose this month, and the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 104.21 on October 31.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream procurement is good

Domestic hydrochloric acid Market in October

manufactor October 1st October 19th October 25th October 31st

Dezhou Shihua 450 yuan / ton 750 yuan / ton 1000 yuan / ton 500 yuan / ton

Dezhou Maihua 170 yuan / ton 170 yuan / ton 260 yuan / ton 260 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong 199 yuan / ton 280 yuan / ton 350 yuan / ton 300 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an 450 yuan / ton 550 yuan / ton 550 yuan / ton 550 yuan / ton

Shanxi Wenshui 200 yuan / ton 290 yuan / ton 460 yuan / ton 370 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market first rose and then fell this month, and the downstream demand is good. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid at the end of the month was 500 yuan / ton, which increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid was 260 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 300 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid at the end of the month was 550 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Wenshui synthesis this month is 370 yuan / ton, an increase of 170 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The market price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market has increased slightly recently. The quotation has increased from 1135.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1205.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.17%, a year-on-year increase of 92.80% compared with the same period last year. The downstream white carbon black market rose sharply. The quotation increased from 5300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 29.72%, a year-on-year increase of 43.23% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose sharply and had a good enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

Market outlook rose slightly

The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market situation of downstream ammonium chloride and white carbon black rises sharply, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly recently.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash rose this month. The average market price of light soda ash was about 3100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3575 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a price increase of 15.32% and 91.52% over the same period last year. On October 28, the commodity index of light soda ash was 183.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 190.31% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is still strong this month. At present, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 3500-3600 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 3500-3700 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term soda ash price is mainly high. The price rise of soda ash this month is affected by the dual control policy. The supply of soda ash decreases and the price rises.

In terms of demand: the glass price fell this month. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 36.77 yuan / m2, and the average price at the end of the month was 31.01 yuan / m2. The price decreased within the month, with a range of 15.66%. The focus of the glass spot market is down this month. In terms of subregions, the prices of some glass enterprises in Shahe, North China have been reduced, the downstream power and production have been limited, the main need for replenishment is just needed, and the overall production and sales are general. The focus of the trend in East China is downward, and the enterprises implement preferential policies. The downstream processing enterprises have general commencement, limited demand and just need to purchase. The spot glass price in Central China has been reduced, and the shipment is OK. The glass shipment in South China is general, waitun glass enters, local enterprises are under pressure to take goods, the downstream receiving is more cautious, and the price has been reduced. The operation of glass in Northeast China is relatively stable, and the prices of a few enterprises are reduced. The glass market trend in southwest and Northwest China is weak, the inventory is high, and the spot price of glass in the market is reduced.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 1 kind of commodity rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (53.29%), caustic soda (6.19%) and light soda ash (1.43%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 6.27%). The average rise and fall this week was 10.93%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is strong, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. However, the downstream glass price is still in conflict with the high price soda ash, the glass price is weak, and the soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. It is expected that soda ash will still focus on market consolidation and operation in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic POM market is sideways, and the high spot price remains firm. As of October 28, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19700 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: Recently, with the sharp decline of futures, the spot market of domestic methanol has plummeted, which can not form a cost support for formaldehyde. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall by shock.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to fall, and POM cost side support was general. In terms of industry load, there are still some maintenance production lines of polymerization plants that fail to produce, the operating rate is not high, and the market supply has not improved much. There is a tight supply of goods in the site, and there are advantages at the POM supply end. Tianye Chemical M90 quoted a reference price of about 18400 yuan / ton for negotiation. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The reference price of Shenhua Ningmei mc90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19800 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20000 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The merchant’s inventory position is not high. Try to make a high offer. The downstream feedback on the high price supply after the rise is general.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is stable at a high level, the upstream formaldehyde price falls, and the cost support of POM is weakened. The on-site supply is low, and the supply side is good. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises just need to receive goods normally, but the delivery and trading of high price goods on the site is poor. It is expected that the POM market may still stagnate in the short term.