Recently (4.1-4.15), the market for dichloromethane has risen first and then fell, fluctuating downward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% from 2525 yuan/ton on the first day and a decrease of 5.20% from the high point of 2595 yuan/ton in the cycle. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, the price of liquid chlorine first rose and then fell, and the cost support of dichloromethane still exists; At the beginning of the month, high raw material prices were supported by high costs, and the inventory of enterprises was low. Later, dichloromethane enterprises gradually accumulated inventory; The factory price of dichloromethane for enterprises first increased and then decreased. As of April 15th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2440-2480 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.1-4.15), there has been a slight fluctuation in the domestic supply of methane chlorides, with overall production starting around 70%.

In recent days (4.1-4.15), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has initially risen and then fallen slightly. The cost of dichloromethane continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from 2623 yuan/ton on the 1st. As of April 15th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 500 yuan/ton, which is lower than 700 yuan/ton in early April and higher than 300 yuan/ton at the end of March.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with merchants and terminals stocking up on demand. Currently, the main support for dichloromethane is in demand, and the market atmosphere is somewhat stagnant upstream and downstream.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the dichloromethane index chart of Shengyishe shows that from the beginning of the year to early March, the 7-day moving average of the dichloromethane index has always been below the 30 day moving average, and at this time, the overall spot market prices are in a downward trend; After crossing the 30 day moving average on the 7th of March, the spot price of dichloromethane showed an upward trend; At present, although the spot price of dichloromethane has slightly declined, the index chart shows that the 7-day moving average is still above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will still have strong support in the short term.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is increasing, and terminal inquiries are cautious; The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine first rose and then fell. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 12th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6560 yuan/ton, which is 0.31% higher than the reference average price of 6540 yuan/ton on April 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to increased cost support. The price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased following the trend of raw materials. However, the current market demand is insufficient, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with limited room for growth. As of April 12th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has increased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is good, and downstream procurement is more active. The new orders from manufacturers are doing well, and most downstream are preparing for the May Day holiday. Overall, the yellow phosphorus market is relatively active, with some factories experiencing tight spot prices. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 23000-23200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. After the Qingming Festival, the overall domestic phosphate ore market remained stable, organized and operated, and the mining of phosphate ore plants was basically normal. Among them, the spot circulation of high-grade phosphate ore was relatively tight, and the overall supply of medium and low grade phosphate ore was relatively loose. At present, the overall performance of the downstream demand side of phosphate ore is average, with downstream users mainly engaged in rigid procurement. The market’s new orders are relatively cautious, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of April 12th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Phosphorus Acid Analyst believes that after the holiday, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus will strengthen, and cost support will improve. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will continue to improve, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 765 yuan/ton on April 5th, and 793 yuan/ton on April 11th. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 3.70%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. The demand for downstream rare earths has increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved, leading to an increase in the bidding price of ammonium sulfate. But the export market is still weak and difficult to improve in the short term. This week, urea prices have shown a positive trend, which is beneficial for the domestic nitrogen fertilizer market. As of April 11th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 740-790 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 780-810 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believes that the price of ammonium sulfate has been on the rise recently. The urea market is strong, supported by favorable factors such as increased downstream restocking. However, international demand remains sluggish, and the upward trend of ammonium sulfate is limited. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will slightly consolidate and rise in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 7th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is based on 9225.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Since April, the epoxy propane market has been operating steadily. Recently, some supply side devices have fluctuated and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has slightly improved. At the beginning of the month, the cost support was relatively strong, and downstream procurement attitudes were cautious, with a focus on observing and following up appropriately. The market trading atmosphere before the holiday was still good. After the holiday, there is some support for the cost side, and downstream observers are generally following suit, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on April 5th was 6840.60, a decrease of 0.12% compared to April 1st (6848.60). Recently, the price of propylene raw material has been narrow and weak, while the price of liquid chlorine raw material has slightly increased. The cost is still supported by the epoxy propane market.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, and short-term cost support still exists. The supply side of the north-south market is slightly divided, and the spot supply in the southern market is tight. The inventory pressure in the northern market is temporarily controllable, and downstream procurement is more cautious in following up. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more needs to wait for market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price curve of butyl rubber this week was calm and without any fluctuations. As of April 7th, the mainstream price of domestic butyl rubber (1751) was 17700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the previous month and 0.71% from January.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

In terms of crude oil: Due to the ongoing tense relationship between Iran and Israel, which has had a profound impact on the stability of the Middle East and the global crude oil market, the zero selling price of refined oil has been raised again in this round. In 2024, retail prices have experienced three increases, one decrease, and two setbacks, leading to an upward trend in the crude oil market during the cycle

In terms of isobutene: After a continuous upward trend in March, isobutene entered a stable operating period this week. As of April 7th, the price of isobutene stream has remained stable at 11500 yuan/ton. Currently, buyers in the isobutene market have decreased their willingness to enter due to the impact of rising prices, and the upward trend is gradually stabilizing.

Demand side:

Recently, multiple steel tire companies have announced an increase in steel tire prices, leading to a wave of price increases in the tire industry in April, with price increases ranging from 2% to 5%. Currently, the operating rate of all steel tires is close to 7 floors, while the operating rate of half steel tires is greater than 8 floors. The demand for steel tires in the market is showing a strong growth trend, with a continuous flow of orders far exceeding the current production and supply capacity, making it difficult to meet market demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the crude oil market is on the rise, with high prices of raw material isobutylene and strong cost support for butyl rubber. The supply of imported butyl rubber is tight, and multiple suppliers have entered the industry in search of goods. Domestic inventory is abundant. There are favorable factors in the downstream steel tire industry. Overall, the butyl rubber market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, after the continuous rise of stearic acid prices in March, there are now signs of a pullback. As of March 29, the mainstream price of domestic stearic acid (1840) was 17700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% from last week, an increase of 1.78% from March 1, and an increase of 4.62% from January.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In March, palm oil prices first rose and then fell, with the highest point overall rising by nearly 7%, and the average price rising to 8400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the external futures market weakened, and the oil palm oil futures market fell one after another, with spot prices mainly following the downward trend. The average price of palm oil in the market has dropped to 8260 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3%,

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices have fluctuated this month and ended with a downward trend. The price range is between 5608 yuan/ton and 5580 yuan/ton. From the demand side, although domestic demand has basically recovered to pre holiday normal, the overall performance is still slightly weak. The market inquiry enthusiasm is average, and downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see, just in need of goods

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall performance of upstream stearic acid in March was still good, with solid support provided by the cost side at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the external futures market weakened, and the support from the cost side gradually weakened. The import volume of stearic acid in February was 18337.57 tons, and the imported goods continued to arrive at the port, while inventory remained abundant. However, downstream factories have shown some resistance towards high priced raw materials during procurement. It is expected that the stearic acid market will remain strong in April due to the impact of lower costs.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the market price of butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 31, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 13940 yuan/ton on March 20. The high price of raw material butadiene provides support for the cost of butadiene rubber; The supply of butadiene rubber has slightly declined; Downstream tire production remained stable at a high level, and caution was exercised in the procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber surged significantly and then fell back.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the price of butadiene has stabilized at a high level, with strong cost support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 20th, the price of butadiene was 11532 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from March 12th’s 11528 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased.

Demand side: In the near future (3.20-3.31), downstream tire production has remained stable, providing some support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late March, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; But in the middle of the month, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly, and downstream consumers resisted the high price, resulting in a slowdown in procurement efforts.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; While some devices are being shut down and reduced in load, there are still other maintenance plans in the later stage, and the expectation of starting production of butadiene rubber is further reduced; The cost and commencement of production support the market for butadiene rubber. However, the current downstream resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has slowed down, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market is expected to maintain a high consolidation level in the short term.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from 15425 yuan/ton on March 18th. The high price consolidation of raw material butadiene and a slight increase in the price of acrylonitrile have continued to support the cost of nitrile rubber; Downstream factories often purchase according to demand, with weak support from the demand side for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; Alantai Rubber’s 30000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early April, and the supply of nitrile rubber is expected to further decline. As of March 27th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14500-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14400-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17500 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the high price of raw material butadiene has been consolidated, and the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased. The cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the price of butadiene was 11525 yuan/ton, which is 0.07% lower than the price on March 18th; As of March 27th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9862 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33% compared to the price of 9637 yuan/ton on March 18th.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the overall stability of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been achieved, and some plants have plans for shutdown and maintenance in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 6.2%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 6.3%. The demand is facing weak support from the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream construction is temporarily stable, inquiries are cautious, maintaining weak support for nitrile rubber; The supply of nitrile rubber is expected to decline in the later stage, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have been weak this week. As of the 25th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 10133 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the coal tar market continued to be weak this week. As of the 17th, the price of coal tar was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan/ton compared to March 1st. Continuous production restrictions by coke companies have led to six rounds of decline in coke prices, increased losses for coke companies, and low operating loads, resulting in tight supply in the high-temperature coal tar market; However, the downstream coal tar market is weak, and terminal procurement attitudes are negative, forming a strong pressure on coal tar. The overall demand support is insufficient, resulting in a decline in coal tar prices and weakening support for the cost of carbon black.

Construction status: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable construction this week.

In terms of terminals, there are sufficient domestic and foreign sales orders in the tire industry, and the downstream tire industry has a strong atmosphere of speculation, which has played a certain promoting role in sales. However, due to the fact that most merchants have already reserved inventory in advance, the actual transactions in the replacement market are not active, and the procurement of raw material carbon black is limited to rigid demand.

Import and export data from January to February: According to customs data, China imported 26000 tons of carbon black in January 2024, an increase of 38.98% year-on-year and 8.28% month on month. In February 2024, China imported 22400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 10.17% year-on-year and a decrease of 13.84% month on month; From January to February 2024, China imported a total of 48400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 23.97% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 9400 tons.

In January 2024, the top three regions of carbon black import quantity are Russia, South Korea and Taiwan, China; They account for 70.9%, 7.6%, and 4.7% of the total import volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black import quantity in February 2024 are Russia, Belgium, and South Korea; They account for 73.7%, 7.3%, and 5.2% of the total import volume, respectively.

According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in January 2024 were approximately 99400 tons, an increase of 97.35% year-on-year and 31.95% month on month. In February 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 70600 tons, an increase of 47.65% year-on-year and a decrease of 28.96% month on month. From January to February 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 170000 tons, an increase of 73.14% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 71800 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in January 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 35.2%, 20.7%, and 10.9% of the total export volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in February 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 31.9%, 19.3%, and 12.8% of the total export volume, respectively.

Looking ahead to the future, due to the decline in the price of high-temperature coal tar market, the support for the cost of carbon black is gradually weakening; At the same time, downstream tire industry merchants generally have a mentality of buying up rather than falling. Currently, there is a strong resistance to carbon black prices, and inquiries are mainly focused on price pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the carbon black market will generally show a weak operating trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2383.4 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2361.2 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.93% and an increase of 8.56% year-on-year. On March 21, the baking soda commodity index was 156.72, a decrease of 1.38 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 77.55% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is running weakly, with the mainstream market quotation of around 1900-2400 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2040 yuan/ton, while the weekend market price was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94%, a decrease of 28.52% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has temporarily stabilized. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have recently made more purchases according to demand, replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount, without any positive support. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.