Annual market trend of DOP in 21 years

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price in 2021 was adjusted by a wide range of fluctuations, and the DOP price hit a record high of 15725 yuan / ton in the cycle on August 4, 2021 (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The maximum price difference between the highest price (August 4) and the lowest price (January 20, 9400 yuan / ton) in 21 years is as high as 6300 yuan / ton, and the vibration frequency and amplitude are higher than those in previous years, with the maximum amplitude of 67.73%. The highest price and annual price difference of DOP in 21 years reached a new high, and the annual market of dop2021 was turbulent.

The trend of DOP is significantly affected by demand, cost, supply and policy. Therefore, the annual trend of DOP is divided into the following stages:

Demand support stage

Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was insufficient in the off-season, and the DOP price was low. On January 21, the DOP price was the lowest in 21 years.

After the festival, the cold wave in the United States led to more shutdown of chemical plants, a significant reduction in the output of chemical products, the transfer of foreign demand to China, strong demand support, and the price of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride soared. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the rise in DOP prices. At the same time, the stability of downstream demand drives the rise in DOP prices. The rise in DOP also provides support for the rise of isooctanol, and the upstream and downstream strongly support each other.

 
After the cold wave ended in March, American chemical plants started one after another, the supply of chemicals basically recovered, and the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell, dragging down the price of DOP. When the vaccine was put on the market, the demand for disposable PVC gloves declined and orders decreased; At the same time, due to the high price of DOP, the cost of downstream wire and cable, PVC film and other industries increases, and the start-up of downstream enterprises decreases. The downstream demand is insufficient, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers is high, the supply of plasticizer Market exceeds demand, and the price of DOP is under pressure.

Commencement restriction stage

Since mid April, DOP prices have rebounded from shock. In the overhaul of isooctanol units of Qilu Petrochemical, lihuayi and other enterprises, the price of isooctanol rose sharply, driving the price rise of plasticizer. However, the terminal demand was relatively stable, and the room for the rise of plasticizer was limited. The price of plasticizer fluctuated slightly in the off-season of the market in May and June. 7. Under the pressure of environmental protection in August, the start-up of enterprises decreased significantly, the market speculation atmosphere rose sharply, and the DOP price soared all the way, reaching a record high on August 4.

Downward phase of cost pressure

From August to the end of the year, the price of isooctanol was high, DOP cost pressure was huge, downstream customers had poor acceptance of high price DOP, and DOP price fluctuated and fell; In October, DOP prices rose briefly and then fell rapidly, and then continued to decline. This year’s golden nine silver ten peak season is not prosperous, and the downstream demand is low. In November of previous years, the export performance of downstream plastic products is strong. However, affected by the epidemic this year, there is no obvious Christmas stock in Europe and America, which has aroused the market’s concern about the prospect of DOP demand, and the DOP price has been falling all the way; In December, affected by environmental protection, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers in Hebei was low, but the overall DOP operation was relatively stable, the overall market demand was relatively low, the downstream customers just needed it, the stock was replenished at a low price, and the DOP price fluctuated downward.

When will the downward trend stop?

The troika affecting the price trend of DOP in 21 years is supply, demand and cost. Supply and demand is the basic driving force for the rise and fall of DOP products. Cost factors determine the profit space and fluctuation range of DOP. Since the second quarter, the rise of DOP industrial chain is mostly driven by isooctanol, while downstream customers follow. Demand growth and insufficient supply are the main reasons for the sharp rise of DOP in 21 years. Correspondingly, the high price of DOP leads to low enthusiasm for procurement in the downstream, more rigid procurement and low demand, which exacerbates the downward trend of DOP.

21 years is over. Let’s look forward to the market in 22 years. In the future, it is difficult to sustain the market in 21 years, and plasticizers return to rationality in 22 years.

Throughout the year, energy consumption is under dual control, environmental protection is normalized, enterprise operation is relatively stable, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain tends to be relatively stable in 22 years, and the price amplitude is bound to narrow. The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises basically meets the demand, but it is relatively scarce, and the concentration of production capacity is high. The leading enterprises have a big say in pricing, and the price of isooctanol has been relatively strong in 22 years. With the support of cost, the decline of plasticizer price is limited, and the DOP price in 22 years is fluctuated and adjusted at about 9500 yuan / ton.

In the short term, the new year is approaching, plasticizer manufacturers have a strong willingness to clear the warehouse, manufacturers actively ship, and plasticizers may be sold at reduced prices; In terms of supply and demand, January 22 was still the off-season in the market, but in late January, customers prepared goods in advance during the Spring Festival holiday, and the parking practice of DOP units during the Spring Festival had a certain positive support for the market demand. During the Winter Olympic Games, it may affect the production of some DOP chemical plants in Hebei and other places, and the expected supply of DOP decreased, which supported the rise of DOP; In terms of cost, DOP in 22 years is still greatly affected by the price fluctuation of isooctanol. In December, the price of isooctanol has approached the lowest price in 21 years, the profit of isooctanol has been reduced to the lowest level in the year, and the manufacturers of isooctanol are willing to support the price in the future. Overall, DOP prices are expected to fall slightly before the festival. After the festival, the plasticizer market may usher in a small rise.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend fluctuated and weakened in December, and the spot prices of various brands fell slightly. As of December 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8130.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, domestic propylene is stable and small this month. The raw material procurement of downstream factories is mainly based on rigid demand. The market wait-and-see mood is strong. The overall demand for propylene is general. In terms of supply, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the enterprise has great pressure to take goods. At present, the propylene market is in a stalemate, the forecast of future demand is general, and the propylene is expected to fluctuate downward in the short-term future.

In the upstream, the price of propylene raw material fluctuated, the recent weak operation of dynamic coal, the news was relatively negative, and the PP cost support was poor. In terms of supply, the supply of PP is basically abundant, and the operating rate of the industry is stable. At the end of the month, the inventory of two barrels of oil decreased moderately. In terms of demand, at present, the demand of terminal enterprises is relatively weak, the preparation before the festival is slow, there is no large-scale purchase follow-up, the merchant’s offer confidence is poor, and the profit on the site mainly depends on direct upstream propylene.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 31, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP fluctuated after falling. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8116.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 5.44% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 2.40% year-on-year. Recently, the demand for PP fiber materials has remained stable, the consumption of end products has been stable and small, and the profits of the main downstream non-woven enterprises have decreased slightly. The load of terminal enterprises shows a slight upward trend. The production situation of PP enterprises is mainly the completion of early orders. It is expected that the fiber material market may continue to consolidate steadily after the festival.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market was weak this month. As of December 31, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9516.67 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.72% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. The saturation pattern of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. It is heard that there is still capacity transfer out this month and other brands of PP. the industry competition is strong and the spot price is difficult to rise.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market was generally stable in December, the dynamic coal market was empty, the cost side was stable and weak, and the upstream support for PP was OK. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is general, the market is long and empty, and the demand is slow. It is expected that the PP market may still be weak in the short term.

In December, the domestic asphalt market first fell and then rose, and the market began to recover slowly in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 3147 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 3191 yuan / ton. The price increased by 1.40% during the month and 29.59% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, affected by the sharp decline of international crude oil and weak market demand, the market price continued to decline.

In the middle of June, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated between regions: affected by the rise of crude oil price and the reduction of executable contracts in North China, the offer of some low-end resources increased. The prices of some refineries of Sinopec in East China and Shandong decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton, driving the decline of high-end prices in the market. Some traders in Northeast China took the initiative to reduce prices to the warehouse, and the price of Kuti fell.

In late June, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated between regions: the price of some main refineries of Sinopec in East China increased by 30 yuan / ton, driving the market quotation to rise slightly. The price of PetroChina Qinhuangdao in North China decreased by 250 yuan / ton, which led to an obvious decrease in high-end prices; With the weakening demand in Shandong, the low-end quotation fell slightly; The price in Northeast China decreased by 25 yuan / ton, mainly due to the preferential shipment of individual refined asphalt, driving the price downward.

At the end of the month, the international crude oil was slightly strong, driving the whole asphalt spot market, and the overall stock demand in the asphalt spot market increased.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price from 2017 to 2021:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price:

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

The trend of international crude oil price is upward, which drives the atmosphere of asphalt futures market in the short term. In terms of spot, it is driven by conventional demand. With the change of weather, the demand may fall into a stalemate. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly consolidated.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the sulfur price trend first fell and then rose in December, and the overall market was upward. As of December 31, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China was 2026.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.33% in the month compared with the average ex factory price of 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the domestic sulfur market was consolidated and operated, and the price showed an overall upward trend in the month. At the beginning of the month, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the phosphate fertilizer market was weak, the terminal consumption did not support sulfur, and the focus of on-site negotiation shifted downward. In the middle and late December, the trend of downstream products rose, the export of enterprises increased, the sulfur sales were smooth, the shipping atmosphere was good, the downstream market supported the upward sulfur market, and the quotation of sulfur enterprises rose.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market first fell and then rose in December. The quotation increased from 628.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 645.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 16.67 yuan / ton, or 2.65%. During the month, the prices of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong increased, the manufacturers produced at low load and had less inventory. In addition, the enterprise’s shipment performance was good, the operator’s mentality was positive, and the quotation was increased according to the trend. The market trend in the month was upward.

In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market of winter storage is weak. In December, the market of Monoammonium and diammonium is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. Diammonium enterprises mainly maintain early orders, and the price trend runs smoothly. The market demand for monoammonium is low, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is weak, the market orders are small, and the price trend continues to decline.

Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the current sulfur price is stable and wait-and-see operation, the inventory of refineries in domestic areas remains low, the downstream just needs to follow up, the enterprise shipment is smooth, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that the sulfur market will wait-and-see consolidation, and it may rise in the later stage. Pay attention to the downstream demand.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in East China market rose sharply in December, and the price hit a record high at the end of the month. As of December 30, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 265000 yuan / ton, Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China on December 1 was 194000 yuan / ton), the price increased by 36.6%. While the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on December 30 was 281000 yuan / ton, which was lower than that at the beginning of the month (on December 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 205000 yuan / ton) the average price increased by 37.07% compared with the price. Until the 30th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 247000-278000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 257000-29000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise in early December, and the tight supply pattern continued. With the end of the year approaching, the market trading volume of lithium carbonate began to increase and the market quotation continued to improve. In addition, large lithium salt plants in the market have been overhauled one after another, resulting in a significant decline in supply. As the Spring Festival this year is earlier than last year, the downstream market demand is still obvious, and the purchase of lithium carbonate is increasing. As overseas countries gradually enter the New Year holiday, the port shipping schedule is delayed, which has a certain impact and gap on the market supply

In late December, the price of lithium carbonate rose again and again, and the rising range was increasing. At the end of the year, the stock mood became more and more serious, resulting in a continuous increase in market procurement. The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the downstream also increased significantly, so the demand for lithium carbonate continued to rise. With the obvious reduction in the domestic market, the supply of goods is also relatively tight, and the market is hard to find. Therefore, manufacturers and traders have raised the price of lithium carbonate one after another. At the end of the month, the lithium carbonate market was in a situation of high demand for the return of upstream funds and heavy mood for goods preparation in the downstream, and the price rise rate continued to increase.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide rose steadily in December, the price of raw material spodumene operated strongly, the cost support was obvious, the market inquiry and procurement atmosphere improved, and the driving atmosphere was strong. In addition, the demand for lithium carbonate produced by carbonization method rose sharply under the soaring demand for lithium carbonate, and the price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide increased significantly.

In December, the market price of lithium iron phosphate showed an upward trend. At the raw material end, the price of lithium carbonate has risen rapidly recently, and the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate enterprises has increased significantly with lithium salt. The new capacity of domestic lithium iron phosphate industry continues to climb, but the current lithium carbonate supply is still tight and it is difficult to purchase, which limits the release of manufacturers’ capacity to a certain extent, the demand of terminal power market remains unchanged, and orders remain high.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics will enter the shutdown state around the middle of January. Therefore, the centralized procurement of lithium carbonate may occur in the first ten days of January, and the logistics and transportation costs may also rise. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise in the short term.

441# silicon price trend in 2021

Metal silicon experienced a sharp rise and fall in 2021, with the largest increase of 340.64% in the same year. In the first half of the year, the “double carbon” policy laid the foundation for the upward rise of metal silicon cost. From the beginning of the year to the beginning of October, the silicon price Rose gently to a rapid rise. In the third quarter, many factories were limited power and reduced load production. Some factories were affected by the difficult procurement of silicon coal, and the production situation continued to be unsatisfactory, The price support sentiment is high, the market conditions of silicone and polysilicon are good, and the profit supports the rise of silicon price. However, after the National Day holiday, the weakening of downstream consumption capacity led to the inevitable decline of Q4 metal silicon production. In addition, in the second half of the year, relevant national regulations and the supplement of Southern hydropower alleviated the tension of coal and electricity, and the silicon price decreased significantly.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of metal silicon in 2021 was 21885.34 yuan / ton, an increase of 86.12% over the average price of 11758.65 yuan / ton in 2020 and 88.71% over 2019. This year, metallic silicon repeatedly broke the historical peak, with the highest price of 60625 yuan / ton and the index of 425.46, an increase of 119.34% over the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016.

From the perspective of supply-demand relationship

In 2021, driven by the easing of the supply of raw silica in Xinjiang, China’s metal silicon output increased restoratively. According to the data of business agency, the total output of silicon metal in China in the first half of 2021 was 1.25 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 38%. The estimated output in Xinjiang in the first half of the year was 650000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, which was mainly due to the increase of the operating rate of a large plant in Xinjiang and the expected output in Yunnan in the first half of the year was 117000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 18%, mainly due to the dual control of local energy consumption and the.

Since the third quarter, most silicon plants in Sichuan and Yunnan have faced the situation of insufficient power supply and difficult operation. The rain in wet season is less than expected, and there are too many high energy consuming industries introduced in Yunnan, which makes the power contradiction more prominent. In September, Yunnan development and Reform Commission controlled the industrial silicon production to ensure that the monthly average output of industrial silicon enterprises from September to December is not higher than 10% of the output in August (i.e. 90% output reduction), Undoubtedly, it will make the silicon market worse. Due to excessive energy consumption in Xinjiang in the first half of the year, the dual control was further tightened in the second half of the year, the supply of raw silica in Xinjiang decreased, and the operating rate also decreased. The output of a large factory in Xinjiang decreased sharply due to environmental protection inspection.

It can be seen that in the third quarter, the main producing areas of metal silicon, Yunnan and Xinjiang, were under pressure. Double control, limited production and insufficient power supply made it difficult for the silicon plant to release production normally from August to October. However, in the fourth quarter, due to the high silicon price and the weak willingness of downstream goods preparation, the expectation of large-scale shutdown of the silicon plant fell short. In November, the metal silicon output increased by 27000 tons to 300000 tons month on month, and the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang increased, Some silicon plants in Yunnan have increased their load on a small scale, and the output of Sichuan has decreased slightly month on month due to power restriction and environmental protection. Generally speaking, the start-up of silicon plants is high, and the social inventory is high year-on-year.

When the silicon price continues to be high, the silicon plants have high enthusiasm for starting work, and the continuously increased output has some problems in consumption. In the case of inventory backlog, oversupply, prices fall, and the market enters the regulation mode, some factories in areas with low production advantages will reduce production or even shut down to alleviate the decline.

From the perspective of downstream products

The trend of silicone and metal silicon is roughly consistent, and the price, like metal silicon, has reached a ten-year high. Silicone started relatively normally, focusing on maintenance. In the first half of the year, the demand for silicone increased by 20%, and the export volume increased by 166300 tons, an increase of 38% over the same period. In the third to fourth quarters, silicone entered the maintenance period, the apparent demand was relatively low, the spot supply in the plant was tight, and the operation capacity of major units was low.

From January to July, the demand for polysilicon increased by 15%, and many factories produced at full load or even overload. The supply of polysilicon continues to be tight, and the production capacity has not been fully released in the first half of the year. It is expected that 150000-200000 tons of new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. Many enterprises build new energy to balance high energy consuming industries, so there is uncertainty. However, the increment of metal silicon in polysilicon next year is very considerable. It is preliminarily estimated that the production capacity of polysilicon will reach about 2.27 million tons in 2025.

Review and Prospect

In the whole year, due to the short wet season in Yunnan, which affected the power supply capacity, the start-up time of factories in Sichuan and Yunnan was shortened, the enterprises in the metal silicon industry chain did not establish a good safety inventory, and the frequent situation of silicon factories in Xinjiang also reduced the output. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the supply was extremely short, and the rising power and raw material costs increased the production costs of factories in production, Metal silicon prices rose as a whole. 3、 During the transition between wet season and dry season in the fourth quarter, the purchase intention of the three downstream of silicone was weakened due to the callback of silicon price, and the market began to face the problem of upstream and downstream game of demand reduction.

The new capacity of organosilicon and polysilicon is expected to be released in the first half of 2022. Metal silicon is expected to get a large number of new capacity in the wet season of 2022. It is expected that the market of metal silicon will be stable, medium and strong in the future. In terms of risk, more attention should be paid to the release speed of new capacity in the downstream next year.

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation first fell from 324.00 yuan / ton on December 1 to 296.00 yuan / ton on December 17, down 28.00 yuan / ton, down 8.64%, then rose to 330.00 yuan / ton on December 21, up 11.49%, and finally fell to 320.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid market has twists and turns this month, first falling, then rising and then falling. On December 27, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 84.21, the same as yesterday, down 38.93% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 368.35% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

Domestic hydrochloric acid Market in December

manufactor December 1st December 17th December 28th

Dezhou Shihua 500 yuan / ton 400 yuan / ton 500 yuan / ton

Dezhou Maihua 80 yuan / ton 60 yuan / ton 60 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong 160 yuan / ton 160 yuan / ton 150 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an 600 yuan / ton 600 yuan / ton 600 yuan / ton

Shanxi Wenshui 280 yuan / ton 260 yuan / ton 290 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid at the end of the month is 500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid was 60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which decreased by 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid was 150 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which decreased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid at the end of the month is 600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Wenshui synthesis at the end of the month was 290 yuan / ton, which increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased by 6.41% from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1095.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 86.38% compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminium chloride market fell first and then rose. The quotation increased from 2356.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2501.11 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.15%, up 37.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream markets have ups and downs, and the downstream has general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

The market outlook fell slightly

The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market situation of downstream ammonium chloride and white carbon black decreases slightly, the price of polyaluminium chloride rises slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

Price rise and fall of major domestic electrolytic manganese markets from December 17 to December 24 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on December 17, Price on December 24, Weekly rise and fall

Average price in Shanghai market, 41600.,39500.,- two thousand and one hundred

Shanghai (barreled), 41250, 39250, – 2000

Shanghai (bagged), 40250, 38250, – 2000

This week (from December 17 to December 24), 1# electrolytic manganese market price mainly declined. The spot market price in Shanghai was 41600 yuan / ton last weekend and 39500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2100 yuan / ton.

Manganese ore: the price of manganese ore this week is mainly stable temporarily. Some miners have a strong attitude of supporting the price due to high cost, low intention to ship at low price and strong wait-and-see mood. With the strengthening of manganese silicon futures and the improvement of downstream demand, manganese ore prices rose slightly.

This week, the spot market of electrolytic manganese was mainly downward. As of the 24th, the domestic mainstream ex factory price was 36000-38000 yuan / ton, down 2000 yuan / ton from last week. Recently, the overall downstream demand is weak. Some manufacturers have the need to withdraw funds and sell at a low price. The downstream still focuses on just needed procurement, and the actual transaction is weak. According to market news, the alliance has a shutdown plan in early 22. At that time, the supply of electrolytic manganese is expected to be tight, but the downstream manufacturers also have a production reduction plan in the same period, and the situation of weak supply and demand is expected to be strong. Therefore, it is expected that the price of electrolytic manganese will remain high in the short term, and the follow-up trend needs to pay attention to the implementation strength and duration of the alliance’s shutdown.

In terms of manganese and silicon: according to the price monitoring of business society, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia (specification: femn68si18) was 7700-7900 yuan / ton (including tax) on December 24, up 50-100 yuan / ton compared with last week. As of December 23, the weekly demand for silicon and manganese was 130512 tons, down 2.63% from last week. Silicon manganese weekly supply of 177380 tons, an increase of 2.24% over the previous week. The national inventory was 115050 tons, an increase of 19900 tons over last week.

The methanol market fell significantly this week. The shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited and waited, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 17 to December 24, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2632 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell 6.93%, the price fell 11.92% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 4.03%.

As of the closing on December 24, the main contract of methanol futures ma2201638 yuan / ton of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, up 11 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of December 24:

Region, Price

Qinghai region No quotation

Shanxi region 2350 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2470-2480 yuan / ton

Fujian region 2760-2780 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby

Lianghu area Ex factory reference: 2475-2650 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 2680-2700 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 2520 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, the coal price of methanol upstream products fell, the price of natural gas was stable, and the support for methanol cost was weak; Among downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong ethylene glycol has the largest price increase.

Comparison chart of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 16, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $403.50-404.50/t, down US $15.5/t. US Gulf methanol market closed at 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 362.50-363.50 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 403.50-404.50 USD / ton – 15.5 USD / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 362.50-363.50 euros / ton – 1 euro / ton

Macro and coal prices are weak or support methanol is limited. From the fundamental point of view, the supply is relatively abundant, and the decline of traditional downstream expectations leads to the weakening of the demand side. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be depressed in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of December 21, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 9866 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.14%.

In early December, due to the poor performance of downstream demand, the transaction focus of domestic normal propanol continued to decline. Starting from the 2nd day of the month, suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong began to reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 8800-9000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing also fell sharply. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was 9000-10000 yuan / ton, with a maximum decline of 2000 yuan / ton. After the continuous decline of price, The bearish mood on the floor did not decrease, and the downstream demand side did not significantly improve. From the 5th, the domestic n-propanol market started falling again. The confidence of the n-propanol industry was frustrated, and the quotation continued to decline. As of December 10, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol fell to 8833 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the average price decreased by 1033 yuan / ton. After the n-propanol market fell to a low point, the downstream replenished on bargain hunting, The transaction orders increased slightly, the price of n-propanol stabilized, and maintained a weak and stable operation. As of December 15, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol was around 8300-9500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late December, the domestic n-propanol market continued to be weak. The supply side of the venue was still tight, the inventory pressure was small, and the demand side maintained just in need of procurement. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue was general. The n-propanol market fluctuated little, and the price was adjusted in many ranges. Local dealers still had reservations about the price, and the price was not easy to monitor, resulting in differences in the specific negotiation situation, There are also differences in each region, mainly through negotiation. As of December 20, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8300-8800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, since December, the external ethylene market has fluctuated frequently, with an overall rise of 7.2%. On December 17, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $768-786 / ton, up US $106 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On December 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1489-1494 / T, up US $92 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1385-1394 / T, up US $71 / T. On December 17, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1051-1061 / ton, down US $5 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1036-1046 / ton, down US $5 / ton.

Internationally, international oil prices fell on December 17. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $70.72/barrel, down US $1.66 or 2.29%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.52/barrel, down US $1.50 or 2.0%. The main reason is the surge in cases of the mutant strain Omicron. The market is worried that the implementation of new restrictions may depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the operating rate of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, the production operation is normal, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general. As a solvent, the factory demand is relatively stable. The n-propanol industry analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the domestic n-propanol market has operated smoothly and fluctuated in a narrow range recently. In the later stage, pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.