The methanol market fell significantly this week. The shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited and waited, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 17 to December 24, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2632 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price fell 6.93%, the price fell 11.92% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 4.03%.

As of the closing on December 24, the main contract of methanol futures ma2201638 yuan / ton of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, up 11 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of December 24:

Region, Price

Qinghai region No quotation

Shanxi region 2350 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2470-2480 yuan / ton

Fujian region 2760-2780 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby

Lianghu area Ex factory reference: 2475-2650 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 2680-2700 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region 2520 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, the coal price of methanol upstream products fell, the price of natural gas was stable, and the support for methanol cost was weak; Among downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong ethylene glycol has the largest price increase.

Comparison chart of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 16, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $403.50-404.50/t, down US $15.5/t. US Gulf methanol market closed at 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 362.50-363.50 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia CFR Southeast Asia 403.50-404.50 USD / ton – 15.5 USD / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 111.00-112.00 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 362.50-363.50 euros / ton – 1 euro / ton

Macro and coal prices are weak or support methanol is limited. From the fundamental point of view, the supply is relatively abundant, and the decline of traditional downstream expectations leads to the weakening of the demand side. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be depressed in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of December 21, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 9866 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.14%.

In early December, due to the poor performance of downstream demand, the transaction focus of domestic normal propanol continued to decline. Starting from the 2nd day of the month, suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong began to reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 8800-9000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing also fell sharply. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was 9000-10000 yuan / ton, with a maximum decline of 2000 yuan / ton. After the continuous decline of price, The bearish mood on the floor did not decrease, and the downstream demand side did not significantly improve. From the 5th, the domestic n-propanol market started falling again. The confidence of the n-propanol industry was frustrated, and the quotation continued to decline. As of December 10, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol fell to 8833 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the average price decreased by 1033 yuan / ton. After the n-propanol market fell to a low point, the downstream replenished on bargain hunting, The transaction orders increased slightly, the price of n-propanol stabilized, and maintained a weak and stable operation. As of December 15, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol was around 8300-9500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late December, the domestic n-propanol market continued to be weak. The supply side of the venue was still tight, the inventory pressure was small, and the demand side maintained just in need of procurement. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue was general. The n-propanol market fluctuated little, and the price was adjusted in many ranges. Local dealers still had reservations about the price, and the price was not easy to monitor, resulting in differences in the specific negotiation situation, There are also differences in each region, mainly through negotiation. As of December 20, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8300-8800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, since December, the external ethylene market has fluctuated frequently, with an overall rise of 7.2%. On December 17, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $768-786 / ton, up US $106 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general. On December 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1489-1494 / T, up US $92 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1385-1394 / T, up US $71 / T. On December 17, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1051-1061 / ton, down US $5 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1036-1046 / ton, down US $5 / ton.

Internationally, international oil prices fell on December 17. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $70.72/barrel, down US $1.66 or 2.29%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.52/barrel, down US $1.50 or 2.0%. The main reason is the surge in cases of the mutant strain Omicron. The market is worried that the implementation of new restrictions may depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the operating rate of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, the production operation is normal, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general. As a solvent, the factory demand is relatively stable. The n-propanol industry analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the domestic n-propanol market has operated smoothly and fluctuated in a narrow range recently. In the later stage, pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

Cobalt prices rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the overall cobalt market fluctuated and rose. As of December 20, cobalt price was 489000 yuan / ton, up 2.54% from 476900 yuan / ton on December 10; Compared with the price of 449900 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month, the cobalt price rose sharply, or 8.69%. The cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the cobalt market recovered and rose.

Sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply

 
According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set a new record in November. Since this year, China’s cumulative output of new energy vehicles has exceeded 3 million, and the sales volume is close to 3 million. In November, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply, and the demand of cobalt market rose.

The output of ternary battery increased greatly

China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance released the monthly data of power battery in November 2021. Data show that in terms of output, in November 2021, China’s power battery output totaled 28.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 121.8% and a month on month increase of 12.4%. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 10.4gwh, accounting for 36.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 42.6% and a month on month increase of 12.9%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 17.8gwh, accounting for 63.0% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 229.2% and a month on month increase of 12.0%. The output of ternary battery increased and the demand of cobalt market increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, the production and sales of ternary batteries have increased month on month, and the demand of cobalt market has increased; The epidemic in South Africa affects the transportation of cobalt raw materials, and the supply of cobalt raw materials is limited or short-term insufficient. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market is strong, the supply is still in short supply, and the rising power of cobalt price is large. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 6180 yuan / ton on December 17. Compared with the price of 6140 yuan / ton on December 11, it increased by 40 yuan / ton, or 0.65%, and the price fell by 14.40% month on month. As of December 17, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region December 11th December 17th Price rise and fall

South China 6000-6100 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton 0/0

North China 6050-6150 yuan / ton 6050-6200 yuan / ton 0/50

Shandong region 6050-6200 yuan / ton 6050-6250 yuan / ton 0/50

Jiangsu region 6000-6100 yuan / ton 6000-6100 yuan / ton 0/0

Zhejiang region 6100-6200 yuan / ton 6100-6200 yuan / ton 0/0

The domestic acetic acid market is waiting to be sorted out, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the downstream purchase is just needed, the on-site trading is OK, the shipment of individual enterprises is smooth, and the quotation rises slightly within the week. Although the production of Jiangsu Thorpe plant is resumed and the market supply is increased, the overall operation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is not high, the enterprise inventory is rational, and the market supply and demand is basically balanced.

In the downstream, the ethyl acetate market first fell and then rose this week, with the overall price falling by 0.56% during the week. As of December 17, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was 8833.33 yuan / ton, mainly due to the obvious price reduction of major manufacturers last week, the irrational bidding effect of major manufacturers and the inertia decline at the beginning of the week. However, due to the bottom of the price, the manufacturers had negative profits, and some manufacturers reduced their load or stopped production in the middle of the week, The decline in production brought about a rebound in prices.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, at present, the supply of acetic acid market is stable, the downstream purchase just needs to be followed up, and the enterprise shipment is smooth. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be stable and wait-and-see for a while, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream transactions.

Acetic anhydride market fell slightly on December 20

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly on December 20, and the acetic anhydride market was adjusted weakly. On December 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 10825 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from 10900 yuan / ton on December 17 of the previous trading day. The high-end price of acetic anhydride fell, the low price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable, and the overall acetic anhydride market was weak and stable.

Rising cost of acetic anhydride

 
According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid increased slightly on December 20. The price of acetic acid on December 20 was 6190 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from 6180 yuan / ton on December 17. The recent slight tentative rise in the price of acetic acid and the rise in the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride are good for the market of acetic anhydride. The momentum for the future rise of acetic anhydride is increased, and the downward pressure remains.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic anhydride raw material has increased recently, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the inventory of acetic anhydride is low, there are many wait-and-see purchases in the downstream, and the market transaction is cold. Near the end of the year, acetic anhydride Enterprises clean up their inventory and sell at a reduced price. Generally speaking, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride has risen, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased. Acetic anhydride enterprises have reduced prices to clean up inventory, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride remains. It is expected that the price shock of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1896 yuan / ton on December 13 and 1826 yuan / ton on December 17. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 3.69% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market of ammonium sulfate was in a downturn, the demand side was weak, and the price trend of ammonium sulfate fell. In order to stabilize shipments, enterprises in various regions reduced prices to varying degrees. As of December 17, the mainstream factory quotation of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1700-1750 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 1630-1700 yuan / ton, and that in Shanxi is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the ex factory quotation in Shandong is 2050-2100 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market fell steadily this week. The price of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, is rising, monoammonium phosphate is still falling this week, and the cost side has limited support for compound fertilizer. Due to the poor demand side at present, the compound fertilizer market is difficult to improve in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that at present, the trading atmosphere of ammonium sulfate is weak, the terminal demand is poor, and there are no favorable factors in the market. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in domestic and foreign demand.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 5200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4933.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 266.67 yuan / ton, down 5.13%, up 28.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On December 9, the calcium carbide commodity index was 131.00, the same as yesterday, down 38.27% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 136.08% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream cost support weakened and downstream demand declined

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 5000 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4900 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quotation this weekend was 4900 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The price of PVC this week fell from 8980.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8790.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.12%, up 3.26% year-on-year over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market has insufficient power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In mid December, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the downstream PVC market also showed a downward trend. It was difficult for the market to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in mid December.

The domestic propane market price rebounded slightly this week, but then returned to the decline channel. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5605.75 yuan / ton on December 5 and 5455.75 yuan / ton on December 10. The decline rate during the week was 2.68%, down 5.46% compared with December 1.

As of December 10, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region December 10th

East China 5500-5650 yuan / ton

North China 5400-5500 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5400-5500 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5500-5600 yuan / ton

This week, Shandong propane Market as a whole showed a down up down market. The price rebounded slightly in the middle of the week, but the market was blocked. Then the price returned to weakness again, mainly downward. At the beginning of the week, the price of Shandong propane market continued to fall, and then, boosted by the continuous sharp rise of international crude oil, Shandong propane Market followed the upward trend, and the price rebounded. However, at the end of the week, the international crude oil profit was not good, the terminal demand was limited, and the overall supply of the market was sufficient, which significantly restrained the rising market. In addition, the impact of the epidemic situation in some southern regions during the week brought some bad news to the market. The propane Market returned to weakness and the price was reduced by a narrow margin.

Saudi Aramco announced in December 2021 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 790 USD / T, down 80 USD / T from the previous month; Butane was 770 USD / T, down 60 USD / T from the previous month.

At present, the north and South markets are mainly weak. The decline in the north market is greater than that in the south market. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient, but there is no significant improvement in demand. The downstream has limited ability to accept high prices and mainly enters the market on bargain hunting. In addition, the international crude oil week is down in the late stage, and the market is not well supported. It is expected that the propane market will continue to weaken in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, in early December, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of December 13, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15700 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.79% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of domestic styrene was slightly explored last week. Crude oil consolidation, pure benzene temporary stable consolidation, the cost side gives styrene bottom support, which can not provide rising power. In Zhenhai area, the industry affected by the epidemic and its upstream and downstream, the overall impact is empty. In addition, it is expected that new units will be put into operation. On the whole, the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week.

The price of acrylonitrile rose last week, and the upstream raw material market was consolidated after falling. The increase of on-site supply was not as expected, and the supply of goods in some regions was tight. However, with the further release of the early supply increment, the future market may restrict the rise of the market.

In terms of butadiene, the domestic spot supply is abundant and the inventory is relatively high. At the same time, the poor transaction dragged the external market into a decline, increasing the downward pressure on the domestic market. It is difficult to find obvious good news on the supply side of domestic and foreign markets. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market fell, the butadiene fundamentals continued to be short, and the spot price was at an annual low.

The overall upstream market of ABS is weak, and the cost side support of ABS is general. In terms of operating rate, in the early stage, there was the landing of new production capacity of polymerization plant. Recently, there were public health events in Zhejiang, which affected the load of some enterprises. The shutdown and maintenance equipment and resumption of production capacity showed each other, and the overall supply was expected to decrease. However, the on-site supply of goods is sufficient, and the superimposed double limit and other environmental protection policies still have an impact on the market. The on-site demand is weak, the merchant shipping pressure is increased, and the goods are passively reduced.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early December, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was weak, which weakened the assistance to ABS. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of market momentum. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices were flat this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week. As of December 13, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 14366.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 14366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (December 6); the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and adjusted this week

 
According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid was flat and stable this week. As of December 13, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton, Compared with the price of 12720 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (December 6), the price of hydrofluoric acid is flat; the high level of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable; recently, the high level of downstream refrigerant market has fallen, the market of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is still under increasing downward pressure.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose at a high level this week, the market of fluorite rose this week, and the price of fluorite rose by 0.58% this week; The price of fluorite rises slightly, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is general.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week, the price of fluorite is rising, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. The high price range of aluminum ingots in the downstream was adjusted by shock, and aluminum fluoride was mainly needed. The price of aluminum fluoride is expected to be strong and stable in the future.