According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of the afternoon of January 17, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9806.67 yuan / ton, up 0.24% compared with the price on Monday (January 10), down 8.35% compared with the price on December 17, and down 47.56% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the melamine market was mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises increased. Recently, the price of raw material urea has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the operating rate of melamine market is about 80%, the orders in the export market are OK, the downstream of domestic trade is ready before the festival, and the focus of market negotiation is stable.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on January 17, up 1.37% from January 10 and 4.39% from January 1.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost side has certain support and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of the collective rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic potassium chloride market showed a trend of sharp rise in the first three quarters and wide fluctuation in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of increases in the first three quarters, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes finally reached 3270.00 yuan / ton in August, which is the highest point of the year. However, after the state issued the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the price of potassium chloride began to fluctuate widely in mid October, rising and falling at 300 yuan / ton. According to the data monitored by the business society, the ex factory price of potassium chloride at the beginning of the year was 2160.00 yuan / ton, and the price of potassium chloride at the end of the year was 2890.00 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 33.80% during the year. The lowest price in the whole year is in the middle and early ten days of February, and the price is 2140.00 yuan / ton. The highest price in the whole year is in August and September, and the price is 3270.00 yuan / ton, with the maximum amplitude of 52.80% in the year.

From the statistical chart of port potassium chloride price, the port potassium chloride self lifting price in 2021 also showed a trend of sharp increase in the first three quarters and narrow fluctuation in the fourth quarter. The price of 62% white potassium in the port once reached a high of 4300 yuan / ton in the year. According to the statistical chart of potassium chloride import and export quantity, China’s potassium chloride import is about 7.28 million tons by November 2021.

Market Review

In the first quarter, the potassium chloride market fell first and then rose. January continued the strong trend of December 2020. The domestic trading atmosphere of potassium chloride was general, the downstream demand was insufficient, and there were few new orders. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2160.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.69% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream enterprises of potassium chloride started one after another, with strong upstream support and good downstream demand. The price of potassium chloride fell slightly, mainly sorting. The price of potassium chloride decreased by 0.92% from 2175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2155.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In March, the price of potassium chloride rose sharply. With the preparation of spring ploughing all over the country, agricultural fertilizer has entered the peak season. The potassium chloride equipment in the salt lake operates normally, with a daily output of 11000 tons from 6000-8000 tons in early February. However, some large traders stopped selling and were reluctant to sell potassium chloride, resulting in poor spot liquidity, tight overall supply and shortage of individual varieties in some regions, resulting in a large increase in the price of potassium fertilizer. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2155.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2380.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.44%. In the first quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 10.19%.

The potassium chloride market continued to rise in the second quarter. In April, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise slightly. The price rose from 2380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.09%. The domestic potassium chloride plant has not been fully opened since its start-up, and there are many orders to be issued, which are still being shipped. The port stock of imported potassium at the port is about 2.5 million tons, but excluding the 1.5 million tons of national commercial reserves, the available source of imported potassium chloride at the port is even less than 1 million tons. The price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable in May. The national storage time of potash fertilizer is coming to an end, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually strong. In terms of port potash, the spot circulation is poor, and most of the supply is concentrated in the hands of large traders. In June, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.89%. The supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market is tight, the supply of goods is tight, the price remains strong, and the bidding price of Salt Lake Group’s products has repeatedly reached new highs. In terms of imported potassium, the Hong Kong stock has continued to decline for seven weeks and has dropped to about 2.1 million tons. The circulation of potassium in border trade is small. There is a phenomenon of hoarding goods in the market to rise. The source of goods available for sale is tight. Brokers quote sporadically, with obvious intention to explore the rise. The transaction prices everywhere are chaotic, and most varieties have no obvious mainstream price. In the second quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 17.65%.

In the third quarter, the potassium chloride market was consolidated at a high level. In July, the price of potassium chloride increased from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3270.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.79%. 8. In September, the price of potassium chloride remained at a high level of 3270 yuan / ton. In terms of domestic potassium, the start-up in Qinghai is normal, some small factories are overhauled, the spot supply is limited, the shipment is normal, there is a tight supply of marketable goods, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the transaction prices are chaotic, and the transaction negotiation is mainly. In terms of imported potassium, affected by the continuous rise of the international market and the reduction of ship arrivals in the market, the price rose rapidly, and traders were reluctant to sell and wait for rise. In terms of border trade potassium, the circulation of potassium chloride at border trade ports is small, there is a phenomenon of hoarding goods to rise, and the available supply of goods is tight.

The market of potassium chloride fluctuated widely in the fourth quarter. The price of potassium chloride fell sharply in October. The supply of chemical fertilizer remained stable, the domestic leading enterprises of potassium chloride were punished, and the price of potassium chloride fell. The price decreased from 3270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.62%. In November, the price of potassium chloride increased slightly, from 2890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3190.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.38%. The operation of potassium chloride plants in Salt Lake and zangge is OK, but the market supply continues to be tight due to transportation and other reasons. In December, the price of potassium chloride fell to 2890.00 yuan / ton. The downstream compound fertilizer plant promoted the winter storage slowly, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, the market transactions of high priced potassium chloride were limited, the price decline of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer became more and more obvious in the last ten days, and the price of potassium chloride also began to fall. The overall price of potassium chloride fell by 11.62% in the fourth quarter

International potash fertilizer consolidation at a high level, downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and potassium chloride is bullish in the future

In the middle and late January, the market of potassium chloride may rise slightly. The spot CFR price of potassium chloride in Brazil has reached US $800 / ton, US $770 / ton in South Africa, US $730 / ton in Australia and US $620 / ton in Southeast Asia, nearly three times higher than that at the beginning of the year. International potassium chloride support is obvious. Belarus suffered sanctions, sea transportation was closed, and other modes of transportation increased costs, blocked exports and increased prices. At the same time, the rising prices of agricultural products and other commodities have stimulated farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, resulting in a sharp increase in the demand for potassium fertilizer, resulting in a situation of short supply, forming a hot situation of chemical fertilizer this year. In the future, the price of domestic potassium chloride is expected to rise slightly.

DBP prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DBP prices fluctuated and rose this week, and DBP prices rose. As of January 17, the DBP price was 10233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.3% from the DBP price of 9733.33 yuan / ton on January 10; Rising raw material prices and Spring Festival stock up led to rising DBP prices.

The price of butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week. As of January 17, the price of n-butanol was 9600 yuan / ton, up 2.86% from 9333.33 yuan / ton on January 10. This week, the downstream customers prepared goods in the Spring Festival, and the demand for n-butanol increased briefly, which stimulated the rise of n-butanol price, raw material price, cost support and DBP rising power.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week. As of January 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7412.50 yuan / ton, up 2.24% from 7250.00 yuan / ton on January 7. When downstream customers prepare goods in the Spring Festival, the demand for phthalic anhydride rises briefly, the price of raw material o-benzene rises, which stimulates the price rise of phthalic anhydride, the price rise of DBP raw material, the cost support increases, and the driving force of DBP rise increases.

PVC trend stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizer is insufficient, which is still bad for DBP market.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that stimulated by the soaring price of crude oil and the demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival, the prices of raw materials n-butanol, octanol and phthalic anhydride increased, the cost of plasticizer DBP increased and the price of DBP increased. In the future, the Spring Festival stock up is coming to an end, the downstream start-up is low, the raw materials rise or slow down, the demand is insufficient, and the rising space is limited. It is expected that the future DBP price will rise first and then stabilize.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply this week. As of January 14, the spot nickel price was 166533.33 yuan / ton, up 5.72% from 157516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 23.79% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose and fell by 6. Recently, nickel prices still fluctuated strongly.

Nickel industry chain

Supply and demand: high energy costs have led to refinery production reduction, and the global nickel inventory has been maintained. The severe weather in the rainy season in the Philippines caused a sharp decline in nickel ore imports, tight market supply and a boost in nickel prices. On the one hand, the production of stainless steel decreased from January to February; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for nickel sulfate in the field of electric vehicles. Ternary precursor enterprises begin to prepare goods before the Spring Festival, and the demand for nickel sulfate increases.

To sum up: the global epidemic is severe and the downstream transactions turn weak, but the LME inventory decreases sharply, the supply is tight and the demand for new energy is strong, which promotes the strong trend of nickel price. It is expected that the short-term shock of nickel is mainly strong.

This week, the lead market (12.31-1.7) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15256.25 yuan / ton last weekend and 15331.25 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.49%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of futures, affected by the new year’s Day holiday at the beginning of this week, the price was stable. Affected by the expected interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the metal trend was generally under pressure, and Lun lead operated weakly. Supported by the low level of LME lead inventory, it began to rebound over the weekend. Shanghai lead showed a “V” trend as a whole this week, falling from a high on Wednesday and rebounding from a low on Friday, with a single day increase of more than 2%.

In terms of spot market, the trend this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead. The domestic mainstream quotation range is 15000-15450 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates greatly, the downstream consumption is general, and most of them are wait-and-see. In terms of supply, the start-up of primary lead is slightly stable and the supply is acceptable. Near the New Year holiday, downstream battery enterprises have a certain demand for goods preparation, and are expected to consume the current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2022 (1.3-1.7), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were neodymium oxide (8.11%), magnesium (7.14%) and metal neodymium (6.14%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were silver (- 3.91%), metallic silicon (- 1.08%) and gold (- 1.06%). Both rose or fell by 2.04% this week.

Overall, the fundamental changes of lead market are limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious, most of which are based on demand. Under the environment of weak supply and demand, the market outlook is dominated by shock. When the downstream preparation is completed, the lead ingot inventory will pick up, and the price may have downward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices rose slightly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 53142.86 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was 53714.29 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.08%. On January 9, the bromine commodity index was 188.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.13% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 219.87% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising slightly. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 50000-57000 yuan / ton. The main reason for the rise of bromine price is that domestic bromine enterprises stopped production at the end of December, and the supply of enterprises decreased. Some downstream intermediate enterprises resumed production. In the early stage, because the price was low, now bromine enterprises have low inventory and are reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2026.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2060 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.64%, 107.38% over the same period last year. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid is purchased on demand, the market demand for liquid sulfur is acceptable, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the price of phosphate fertilizer rises, the market demand increases, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market improves, the price of sulfur fixation rises, the downstream market is better, and the sulfur price is adjusted and raised.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine has risen, but the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to high price bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, except for individual products. However, many bromine manufacturers offer firm prices. Considering the general needs of the downstream, it is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will rise sharply, and the foundation is not solid. See the downstream market demand for details.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of January 10, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 12333 yuan / ton. Compared with January 3 (the participating price of butanone was 11533 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 800 yuan / ton, or 6.94%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that after the new year’s Day holiday in 2022, the domestic butanone market continued to rise at the end of December. On the first day (January 4) after the holiday, the supply in the butanone field was still tight, and the offer price of butanone factory rose strongly, with a single day increase of about 200-300 yuan / ton. Then the market continued to rise. The spot in the field was scarce and the sentiment of reluctant to sell was strong, The focus of on-site trading is significantly upward, at a high price, and the downstream order receiving capacity is limited. Follow up is cautious, mainly through negotiation on demand, and the actual order transaction is limited. As of January 10, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12000-12500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 12333 yuan / ton. Compared with the fourth day, the average price after the festival was increased by 800 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 7%.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on January 10 was 134.06, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 165.68% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, in January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market has weakened, and the trading atmosphere shows a stalemate. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market continues to rise, the power is insufficient, the market is mostly subject to narrow fluctuation and adjustment, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand of butanone.

Zinc prices rose slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price rose slightly this week, and the zinc market rose slowly. As of January 10, the zinc price was 24370 yuan / ton, up 0.61% from 24222 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices rose slowly, and the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted this week.

Soaring electricity prices in Europe affect zinc supply

Europe has sanctioned Beixi 2, the most important gas transmission pipeline from Russia to Europe. The amount of natural gas supplied by Russia to Europe has decreased. At the same time, Germany will close nearly half of its nuclear power plants by the end of 2021. The electricity price in Europe remains high, and the start-up of zinc smelting in Europe remains low.

There are many downstream production stops in China

Affected by environmental protection, Spring Festival holiday, Winter Olympic Games and other reasons, many zinc plating plants and zinc oxide enterprises in Hebei plan to advance or increase the Spring Festival holiday. Hebei galvanizing plant has been affected by the introduction of relevant policies for the Winter Olympic Games. Most enterprises will start to arrange holidays in January, and may even stop production until March 8, 2022. In addition, at the end of the year, the downstream receiving mood was not high, the downstream demand was weak, many enterprises had almost no orders, traders continued to accumulate warehouses, and the demand for zinc ingots weakened.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: under the double weak market of supply and demand, it is difficult for downstream demand to recover near the holiday, domestic zinc ore and zinc smelting production are normal, domestic short-term stocks are accumulated slightly, and the overall rise support of zinc market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is limited. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in Shanxi this week was 5833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56%, the current price fell by 1.13% month on month, and the current price rose by 40.56% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic market of potassium nitrate is relatively stable this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the overall market of potassium nitrate fluctuates little in the near future and remains basically stable. The supply of potassium nitrate is normal, the market transaction is general, the manufacturer arranges orders and ships, the downstream procurement is just needed, the potassium nitrate Market is generally stable, and may rise with the potassium chloride Market in the later stage. According to the statistics of business agency, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 5700-5900 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The market of potassium chloride has risen recently. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3600-3900 yuan / ton. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton. The higher potassium chloride market can support the cost of potassium nitrate.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is at a high level, the potassium chloride market is rising, and under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell in December, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of December 30, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 36500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 5.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, domestic adipic acid is short both in cost and supply and demand this month, and the price of raw materials is lower. The supply is affected by the expected temperature rise of plant restart, dragging down the market price. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 enterprises have operated at a low production load for a long time.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is weakly stable, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost end support of PA66 is weakened. At present, there is no change in the operating rate of the industry compared with the previous period, the tight pattern of adiponitrile remains unchanged, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry continues to be low. Due to the shortage of inventories in various ports, the impact of international health events, the lack of overseas systematic transportation capacity, and the long-term shortage of domestic arrival, the boost effect of the recent rise of remote upstream crude oil has also been flattened. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, there is great resistance to high price goods, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell in December. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end did not improve, and the adipic acid market fell. PA66 enterprise has a low overall load due to lack of raw materials, and the supply side supports the spot. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price sources, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.