Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong this week was 12833.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 4.90% year-on-year. On April 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.37% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 168.45% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is good and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong this week is temporarily stable: the octanol unit of Jianlan chemical is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 13000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 8230.80 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8494.60 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.21%, an increase of 3.73% year-on-year over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was good. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 12300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.22%. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

The upstream support is good, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle of April, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support was good, but the downstream DOP market fell slightly and the downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1866 yuan / ton on April 6 and 1856 yuan / ton on April 11. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 0.54% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly this week, dominated by shock finishing and operation. The downstream is resistant to high priced ammonium sulfate, and the demand side is not followed up enough, mainly on the sidelines. The external market urea market is at a high level, which is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Due to the epidemic situation, transportation in many places was blocked. The internal ammonium sulfate plant has reduced the load, reduced the supply and kept the price high. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate was slightly reduced. As of April 11, the factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate and mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1660 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1650 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the ex factory quotation in Shandong is 1950-2000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw sulfuric acid is high this week, and the cost support is good. The market price trend of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches is rising, and most of them are still wait-and-see. Due to the high price of compound fertilizer raw materials, favorable cost support and strong market of compound fertilizer, most of them mainly execute early orders.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that at present, the demand side of ammonium sulfate is weak and the release space is limited. It is expected that the price range of ammonium sulfate will be stable in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the changes at the demand side.

After the festival, the domestic phenol market fell down due to poor trading. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10645 yuan / ton on April 1, and 10462 yuan / ton on April 11, down 1.71%. So far, the offer of East China market is about 10350 yuan / ton, that of South China is 10450 yuan / ton, and that of North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 10500-10550 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market

Before the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, the phenol market entered a stalemate after a narrow weakness. The holiday is approaching, the transportation resistance is large, the trading slows down and the market is quiet. During the holiday, the source of imported goods was replenished, and the port inventory increased slightly. At this time, the domestic logistics resistance was still large. After the festival, the focus of market negotiation fell again, and the willingness of cargo holders to ship increased.

The downstream bisphenol a market is generally stable, with little fluctuation in April. The consolidation and operation of downstream epoxy resin just needs to be followed up, while the supply pressure of bisphenol a market is small, and the market continues to operate smoothly. By the time of publication, the offer in North China and East China is about 16550 yuan / ton.

On November 11, Gaoqiao Petrochemical in East China lowered the listing price again to 10350 yuan / ton, and the market negotiation in East China was 10350 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of transportation, the demand pressure in East China was large, the circulation of goods in the region was not smooth, and there was still port supply supplement in the short term. However, considering the cost, the cargo holders had little room to continue to make profits. The business community expected the phenol Market to be depressed this week, and the trading volume was still the focus.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, unchanged from the price of 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 45.31%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and the Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50%, Domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the decline of crude oil price this week, the price trend of domestic p-xylene remains stable. Driven by the decline in the closing price of international crude oil, the trend of PX external price declined slightly. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1134-1136 / ton FOB Korea and US $1152-1154 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has been relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, the closing price of PX external price fell slightly, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $96.03/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $100.58/barrel. International crude oil futures have fallen for three consecutive times. The large-scale release of reserves by consumer countries has put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the EU’s energy sanctions against Russia are still uncertain, and the expectation of supply tightening has eased slightly. In addition, the International Energy Agency has a plan to release crude oil reserves. Negative factors affect the decline of international crude oil price. Affected by the decline of crude oil price, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of downstream PTA market fell this week, and the average price of PTA market was 6100-6200 yuan / ton as of August 8. Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA plant was restarted on March 28, and Zhongtai Petrochemical 1.2 million ton PTA plant was overhauled on March 25 and restarted around April 11. Ineos 1.25 million ton PTA plant was overhauled on March 26 and is planned to restart around May 1. Plant restart and maintenance are carried out in parallel, and the supply continues to be low. At present, the operating rate of the industry is 73%. Due to the pressure of inventory and cash flow, some factories in the downstream started to reduce the burden and production, and the operating rate of the industry fell below 88%. Disturbed by the epidemic situation, the demand for terminal weaving is weak, and the orders in the peak textile season are less than expected, resulting in the polyester demand and inventory situation is not optimistic, and there are certain variables in the production of new polyester production capacity. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the terminal textile market, mainly cautious procurement, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price has fallen, but the supporting role of the cost side is still, the downstream demand has recovered slowly, coupled with the slight decline of PTA price trend, and the overall demand side is weak. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may decline in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 6, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 13533 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 1, 2022 (the ex factory price of propylene glycol is 14133 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.25%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in April, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to decline. On the 2nd, the downstream demand for propylene glycol was general, the turnover of propylene glycol in the field was limited, and the shipment of propylene glycol factory was under pressure. The ex factory price of propylene glycol was adjusted downward by about 200-300 yuan / ton. During the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol venue was light, and the market was temporarily stable. After the festival, the domestic propylene glycol market fell again. The ex factory price of propylene glycol was reduced by about 200-400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was referred to about 13400-13600 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the pressure on the propylene glycol supply side remains, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the overall transaction is general.

On the upstream side of propylene oxide, after the festival, the domestic propylene oxide Market is weak and downward. According to the data of business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 11900 yuan / ton on April 6, down 1.11% compared with 12033.33 yuan / ton on April 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the overall downstream demand for propylene glycol is still limited, and the downstream purchase is mainly based on rigid demand. The propylene glycol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly be adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (April 6): 9500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on April 6, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong operated slightly downward. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 9500 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 66 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.70%. On the 6th, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in Shandong was general, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was heavy. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9400-9600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream factories of n-butanol mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish goods appropriately on bargain hunting, which still has a certain impact on the limited transportation. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose in March. As of the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8737.5 yuan / ton, up 8.37% from the price of 8062.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 43.83% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly in March, and the sales of phthalic anhydride market was normal.

Since March, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, the price trend of upstream raw material orthobenzene has risen sharply, the plasticizer market has risen, favorable factors support the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of upstream adjacent benzene rises. Affected by this, the market price of phthalic anhydride rises. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions in the venue are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8400-8500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8600-8700 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Driven by raw materials, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rises.

Since March, the price of domestic orthobenzene has risen sharply, with the on-site price of 9000 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.38% compared with the price of 7800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The rise of domestic orthobenzene price is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In March, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area rose, and the external quotation of orthobenzene rose. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area was ok, and the external quotation of orthobenzene remained high. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual order is discussed in detail, The price of o-benzene rose sharply. The price of raw material o-benzene was good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. In addition, the demand improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly.

In March, the downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12300 yuan / ton by the end of the month, with a price increase of 3.36%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the DOP supply was normal, the isooctanol price was stable, the DOP raw material cost was stable, the operation of DOP enterprises was low, the DOP supply was sufficient, the PVC price fluctuated temporarily, the downstream demand was general, and the market transaction was general. Plasticizer DOP market is still rising with downward pressure, and the transaction price is subject to the real-time price. DOP price is 12200-12500 yuan / ton, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is affected.

On the whole, the peak sales season of plasticizer is coming to an end, and most units of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operate stably. However, the market price of orthobenzene has remained stable recently, and the trend of downstream plasticizer industry has declined. On the whole, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may fall slightly in the later stage.

Precious metal prices continued to move down this week

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average early price of silver market was 5001.67 yuan / kg, down 0.69%, down 4.08% from the average early price of 5214.67 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 1.49%; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.86%.

On March 31, the spot market price of gold was 393.93 yuan / g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, down 1.51% from the early average price of 399.98 yuan / G on Friday (March 1), and up 1.71% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.79%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Leading factors of precious metal prices in the month

Risk aversion triggered by geopolitics & the landing of interest rate increase

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia was fermented from the news to the actual occurrence, detonating the market risk aversion and dominating the early rising market; In June, the interest rate hike of the central bank and the US Federal Reserve landed, superimposed on the decline of risk aversion, and the price of precious metals fell slightly this week.

From the investment data, SPDR gold ETF positions remained unchanged at 1093.18 tons in terms of ETF positions; SLV silver ETF position increased by 57.46 tons to 17236.55 tons. The market investment atmosphere is good.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak, there is pressure to increase interest rates on precious metals and inflation support under precious metals. It is expected to be dominated by wide shocks.

The price of chloroform rose sharply in March. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 30, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 5887 yuan / ton, up 15.16% from 5112 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the price of methanol rose, and the cost strengthened in the face of chloroform. According to the business agency, as of March 30, the price of methanol was 3090 yuan / ton, up 13.19% from 2730 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In mid and late March, the logistics transportation in many regions in China was blocked, the start-up of downstream refrigerants decreased as a whole, and some units stopped. The support of demand for chloroform weakened.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that at present, the circulation of trichloromethane industrial chain is reduced, but the cost is higher. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will remain high in the short term.

In March, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell, with an overall rise of 3.28%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5725 yuan / ton on March 1, 5912 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 3.28% in the month, and the offer of domestic phenol market was 6337 yuan / ton on March 10, with an amplitude of 10.7%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 5850 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 5850-5950 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

In the first ten days of March, the acetone market in East China and even the whole country rose sharply. In the first ten days of March, the market offer in East China rose to 6330 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 days or 10.7%. Crude oil continued to rise, driving the outer disk of pure benzene and styrene at the raw material end to rise sharply. At this time, propylene increased significantly, which was positive, and the center of gravity continued to rise. Subsequently, crude oil fell sharply on the 10th, and some domestic parts had a great impact on logistics and transportation due to the aggravation of public events. The shipment of cargo holders was blocked, the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises increased, the shipment was also difficult, and the offer of the market and factories was loose. In the middle and late part of the whole year, with the continuous fermentation of domestic public events, the logistics problem became more and more serious, the circulation of goods in the region was not smooth, and the dual raw materials also entered the downward channel one after another. Under the continuous concessions of goods holders, the market accelerated downward, and the market focus was seriously frustrated. In the last ten days of the year, the petrochemical manufacturers were under pressure to reduce the guidance price, but the market weakness was difficult to contain, and the on-site trading was cold.

The downstream bisphenol a market was dominated by the overall downturn. The bisphenol a market continued to decline in the middle and early March, mainly due to the lack of good supply and demand, the continuous decline of upstream raw materials, and the lack of demand in the downstream. The conversation was depressed, and the market once fell to 15300 yuan / ton. However, near the end of the month, the market rebounded rapidly and rose significantly at 1000-1300 yuan / ton due to the centralized replenishment demand at the downstream PC end. As of the 30th, the mainstream offer in the domestic market was 16400-16500 yuan / ton.

In April, it was difficult to significantly improve the supply and demand structure. Most terminals were just in need of follow-up. In the near future, we should continue to pay attention to the logistics and transportation caused by domestic public events, especially the logistics in the northern region was blocked, the shipment pressure of cargo holders was high, and the downstream terminal enterprises were just in need of follow-up at this stage, with little intention of replenishment. On the other hand, the recent cost side is greatly affected by crude oil fluctuations. According to the prediction of business society, the offset between supply and demand in April has little change, and the domestic acetone market is expected to operate in a range of fluctuations.