This week (4.18-22), the domestic butyl acetate market continued the trend of previous weeks, mainly continued to decline, and the decline deepened slightly. Butyl acetate continued to fall in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 2.92% this week. At the weekend, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate is 9700-10000 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol are out of the market. In particular, acetic acid decreased significantly. The decline in cost is the direct reason for the decline in the price of butyl acetate, and n-butanol rebounded mainly after the decline.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid market maintained the decline of last week this week, and the decline deepened. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid decreased by 8.43%, and the overall transaction was general. This week, Shanghai Huayi plant resumed production, superimposed the normalization of manufacturers’ devices in Shandong and Henan, and the market supply increased significantly. Due to the impact of public health events, the transportation in some areas is not smooth, especially in the main production areas of central China, Shandong and East China. On the other hand, the problem of transportation and the high freight rate lead to the high inventory of manufacturers, and the prices of manufacturers are naturally under pressure. The sharp decline in cost is the direct reason for the lower price of butyl acetate.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price.

Future forecast: in the short term, the fundamentals of butyl acetate are not good, and the supply and demand side still maintains a short pattern. However, considering that there may be limited room for the decline of acetic acid in the later stage and the rebound of n-butanol, the cost bottoms out in the later stage or forms a certain support for the butyl market. In the near future, we need to pay attention to whether the upstream acetic acid market can be reversed and the operation of downstream plants.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market has increased slightly since April. As of April 25, the average market price was 6129 yuan / ton, up 1.17% from the beginning of the month and 34.22% year-on-year.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

Manufacturer, Unit capacity (10000 tons / year), Device change

Yisheng Ningbo, two hundred It was overhauled on April 13, and the current load is about 80%

two hundred and twenty In April, the load was reduced by about 50%, and the current load is about 80%

Yisheng new material, three hundred and thirty In April, the load was reduced by about 50%, and the current load is about 80%

three hundred and thirty The current load is about 80%

Yadong petrochemical, seventy The maintenance and restart time in the evening of April 7 is to be determined

Chuanneng chemical, one hundred It was stopped on April 13 and is planned to restart around the middle of May

Yisheng Dalian, two hundred and twenty-five On April 14, it stopped briefly and returned to normal

Hengli Dalian, two hundred and twenty Maintenance on April 20, restart time to be determined

Yisheng Hainan, two hundred The load is about 90% in mid April

Fuhaichuang, four hundred and fifty In early April, the load was reduced to 50%

In April, the overhaul and production reduction of major domestic PTA plants increased. As of April 25, the operating load of PTA industry was around 70%. Although it rebounded slightly at the end of the month, it was still lower than 10% in the same period last year. Moreover, due to the impact of logistics problems in some areas, there are few spot PTA circulation.

However, the price of international crude oil futures closed lower recently and the cost side was dragged down. As of April 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $98.54/barrel, down US $3.53 or 3.46%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.32/barrel, down US $4.33 or 4.06%. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike is expected to depress the capital market, and the prices of venture capital such as stock market and crude oil are under pressure; More importantly, the restrictive measures related to the epidemic have exacerbated the market’s concern about the prospect of energy demand.

At present, the downstream polyester and terminal looms have recovered slowly under the influence of the epidemic and logistics, and the operating rate of the device has fallen to 77%. The terminal demand has shrunk significantly and the follow-up is insufficient. Most of them continue the just needed purchase, and the market trading is general. At present, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has picked up slightly and maintained a low level of 54%. However, if the weaving factory continues to reduce production before May Day, the shipping pressure of polyester factory is still large.

Business analysts believe that the reduction of spot supply in the market supports PTA prices. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will continue to follow the fluctuation of crude oil, and we still need to pay attention to the boost of the gradual recovery of the downstream caused by the improvement of the epidemic in the later stage.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of April 24, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.34% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose last week. Pure benzene market continued to rise. The market is bullish on crude oil prices, driving the rise of pure benzene on the cost side. Styrene followed. Overall, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

The market of acrylonitrile fell last week. In terms of supply, the on-site spot goods were reduced due to the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage. At present, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the support of the supply side to the spot goods is limited. Downstream demand performance is general, superimposed with the impact of health events on transportation, and the ex factory price of spot is under pressure.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rebounded slightly and rose. There was no significant increase in the market supply during the week, and the amount of cash in circulation was slightly tight. In addition, as the holiday is approaching, there is a pre holiday stock demand in some downstream, which has a certain support on the demand side. It is expected that the downstream retail investors still have a certain pre holiday stock demand in this cycle, which may support the spot market.

Last week, the overall support of three materials upstream of ABS cost side was general. In terms of industry load, some domestic production lines began to be overhauled in the early stage, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has decreased slightly. However, the mentality of manufacturers is not strong. China’s health events still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, suppressing a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. The situation in Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of many oil fields and the rise of crude oil. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the shrinking demand caused by the impact of health events on the downstream load.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials is weak, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is temporarily abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is lower than that in the early stage. The demand follow-up contracted due to the impact of transportation. I heard that the shipment is about to improve. It is expected that the ABS spot market may stop falling and rebound with the improvement of freight transportation in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that during the second half of April, the price of corn in the main domestic production areas will be generally stable and slightly strong, and the substantive decline of price is very difficult.

The price of vitamin A was temporarily stable this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was stable at 232 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quoted 59-68 euros / kg. Recently, the production and sales of the market are weak, and the price focus is downward.

The price of vitamin E was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 92 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quotation this week is 9.8-10.85 euros / kg. Recently, affected by the epidemic, the market supply has tightened, the market attention has increased, and the price has a strong upward trend.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that: Overall, the demand is general, and the overall vitamin market is weak and difficult to change. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

The domestic epoxy resin market is running firmly, and the cost support of solid resin is strong, but the terminal demand is difficult to be significantly improved, and the transaction has not been significantly adjusted

. The liquid resin market is running firmly, with a narrow upward range of about 300 yuan / ton in the week. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 25000-25500 yuan / ton on April 11, and the market rose to 25300-25800 yuan / ton in a narrow range on April 18. As of press time, the market offer of liquid resin in East China was 25300-25800 yuan / ton, and the market offer of solid resin in Shandong was 22500-22800 yuan / ton.

 
Bisphenol A, the raw material, has been running steadily. As of the press release, the market negotiation was 16750-16800 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical raised 100 yuan to 16800 yuan / ton.

Raw material dicyclopropane pushed up in a narrow range. The epichlorohydrin market rose rapidly due to the shutdown of Jiangsu Haixing and the increase of downstream replenishment. The market offer is 18700-19000 yuan / ton, which is a strong support for the downstream from the perspective of cost.

 
Due to the strong cost of epoxy resin, some large domestic resin manufacturers are in the process of parking, and the manufacturers are in the mood of supporting the price. However, at present, when the market supply is sufficient and the downstream demand side has not improved, it is mainly due to the current large logistics resistance and increased transaction difficulties. It is expected that the epoxy resin will be consolidated at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on April 17 was 126.96, the same as yesterday, down 10.99% from the highest point 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 50.57% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride increased slightly in the week (11-17), and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride increased from 2330 yuan / ton to 2348.75 yuan / ton, which continued to be stable, with a slight weekly increase of 0.8%. At present, the manufacturer’s production is relatively normal, the spot inventory is relatively sufficient, public health events affect the transportation and circulation of goods, delivery is difficult, and the cost increases.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly in the week (11-17), and the quotation fell from 345.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 310.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.14% and a year-on-year increase of 34.78%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week; The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of downstream ammonium chloride has increased slightly, and the purchase intention is good. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market has been falling continuously since April. The price first fell and then rebounded slightly this week. The overall price fell by about 2.63% from November to 17. At present, the logistics has gradually recovered, the shipment of liquid plants has turned positive, and the price has rebounded and rebounded. At the same time, some liquid plants in some regions have maintenance plans, there is support on the supply side, and the domestic liquid market is relatively strong. It is expected that the domestic LNG market may continue to rise slightly in the short term.

Future forecast: the current public health events have a significant impact, the circulation of goods is blocked and the transportation cost is increased. The demand has been reduced to some extent due to the impact, and some manufacturers are under great pressure to ship; Polyaluminium chloride market will be stable for the time being, supplemented by small adjustment.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 12166.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 2.67% year-on-year. On April 17, the isooctanol commodity index was 89.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.94% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 154.51% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong decreased slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan chemical is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12100 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. The quotation fell from 8494.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8441.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.63%, up 2.05% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP prices fell from 12250.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 11837.50 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.37%, up 3.61% year-on-year over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

The upstream support improved slightly, the downstream demand was general, and isooctanol was bullish in the future

In the middle and late April, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream propylene market showed an upward trend over the weekend, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market fell slightly and the downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 17666.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan / ton lower than that at the weekend. The distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 14133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.30%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was good. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and late April may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was good, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol in business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 11025 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10975 yuan / ton, with the price down 0.45% and an increase of 5.28% compared with the same period of the year.

II quotations analysis

Domestic EPS prices weakened slightly in this cycle. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, styrene fluctuated back, and the logistics and transportation caused by early public health events have improved in some areas, but the impact of Jiangsu and other regions is still obvious, the terminal demand has not changed significantly, and the overall transaction is general. As of April 14, the ordinary materials of Jiangsu sample enterprises were 11000 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.90%, and the resistance fuel was 11900 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.83%.

Domestic styrene prices fluctuated and fell, with limited overall decline, mostly weak consolidation. During the week, the spot high-end transaction in Jiangsu was 10000 yuan / ton, the low-end transaction was 9730 yuan / ton, and the high-end and low-end price difference was 270 yuan / ton. This week, the guidance of crude oil on the price of styrene weakened. Although crude oil rose sharply during the week, styrene continued to fluctuate in a narrow range after falling at the beginning of the week.

III Future forecast

At present, the supply side has reduced production in Jiangsu more or less, and it is difficult to significantly improve production in other regions. It is expected that the EPS market may be weak and volatile in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 11, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-grade cyclohexane was 9100 yuan / ton this week, and the price was mainly stable. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 8900-9100 yuan / ton, mainly maintaining stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price range of this week was small.

This week, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane is 9100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 8900 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 8400 yuan / ton of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd, Shandong ruishuang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 900 yuan / ton, and Shandong yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton.

As of April 8, the price of upstream pure benzene was 8500-8650 yuan / ton (the average price was 8580 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.59%, and 28.06% compared with the same period last year. The maintenance of pure benzene plant is concentrated, and the supply side is expected to tighten; Under the influence of public health events, the operating rate of pure benzene and main downstream units decreased. Under the influence of domestic public health events, the mentality of pure benzene market is poor and the short-term trend is weak.

Chemical index: on April 10, the chemical index was 1184 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 15.43% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business society, the stable operation of cyclohexane market is expected in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).