1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of tetrachloroethylene on April 30th was 5050 yuan/ton, and the average market price of tetrachloroethylene barrels on April 1st was 5150 yuan/ton. The market price of tetrachloroethylene decreased by 1.94% during the month, an increase of 21.2% compared to January.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the price of tetrachloroethylene continued to rise in the first quarter and the trend was relatively strong. The mainstream factory price was quoted at 5200-5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.61%. The market supply is tight, and distributors are keeping up with large factories to increase prices. Those with higher prices will receive. In the middle of the month, the price of tetrachloroethylene has stopped rising and fallen, with mainstream factory quotes of 4900-5200 yuan/ton. According to customs data, the import volume of tetrachloroethylene in March was 79.203 tons, and the export volume was 1651.77 tons. In the first quarter, the import volume increased by about 48% year-on-year, and the export volume decreased by about 7.28% year-on-year. The phenomenon of sufficient market supply is evident, domestic demand is weakening, the trading atmosphere is stable, downstream production is insufficient, on-demand procurement is insufficient, and the driving force for the price increase of tetrachloroethylene is insufficient, with a slight decline, but it remains at a high level until the end of the month and operates steadily.

The downstream refrigerant R125 market is operating steadily at a high level, with prices ranging from 42000 to 45000 yuan/ton. The refrigerant market continued to soar in the first quarter, with a slowdown in growth in April and insufficient operating rates. R125 is used to prepare refrigerants such as R404A, R407C, R410A, R507, etc. It is mainly used in industries such as air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and chillers. May is still the peak season for terminal air conditioning production, and summer is approaching. The demand for refrigeration equipment in the market is increasing, and the support for R125 demand is still strong, forming strong support for the price of tetrachloroethylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the demand side is running steadily at a high level, and the tetrachloroethylene market may maintain a high consolidation operation.

Aluminum prices rose in April

Aluminum prices fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30, 2024, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 20596.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% compared to the market average price of 19550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (4.1).

Strong cost support for rising alumina prices

In April, the price of alumina rose. On the one hand, due to the tight domestic supply side, the overall operating rate of alumina in April decreased month on month. Looking at different regions, the operating rate of alumina in Shanxi has significantly decreased, while the operating rate in Guangxi has rebounded; On the other hand, the expectation of tightening overseas supply has strengthened, and the spot price of overseas alumina has risen. It is reported that Alcoa’s Kwinana alumina plant is expected to shut down from the second quarter, and all production is planned to stop in the third quarter, involving a production capacity of 2.19 million tons per year.

Macroscopically favorable, non-ferrous sectors rise together

In March, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.8%, a significant increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry has shown an unexpected recovery. The domestic economy continued to develop well in the first quarter, with positive automobile production and sales data and strong demand expectations. Coupled with the rise of the non-ferrous sector and sector linkage, the sentiment was positive.

Overseas, the US inflation in March was higher than expected, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June weakened. Even the outlook for July seems more unstable. The year-on-year growth rate of the US PCE price index in March was 2.7%, exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5%. The month on month growth rate was 0.3%, which is in line with expectations and remains unchanged from the previous level, indicating continued inflation in the United States. But overall, it is in the path of interest rate cuts.

Increased cost side game in May under the expectation of abundant water season

In addition to the main raw material aluminum oxide, the cost of electricity is also the largest part of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 30-40% of the total cost. Gradually entering the rainy season, the cost of hydropower in Yunnan is expected to decrease. In terms of thermal power, we mainly focus on the price trend of thermal coal in May. Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in electricity costs in May.

Narrowing upward space for aluminum prices in May

At present, aluminum prices have seen a significant increase, and aluminum factory profits have widened. With the arrival of the abundant water period in May, Yunnan’s resumption of production will continue to advance, and the certainty of supply increase is strong. It is expected that the upward space for aluminum prices in May will narrow.

Recently (4.19-4.29), the nitrile rubber market has seen a narrow consolidation. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15300 yuan/ton, with a low point of 15275 yuan/ton during the cycle, and the overall narrow range consolidation. The high price of raw material butadiene and the rising price of acrylonitrile continue to support the cost of nitrile rubber; Downstream production is operating at a low level, and demand for nitrile rubber is weak. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; Alantai Rubber and Ningbo Shunze Nitrile Rubber have parked, and the pressure on the supply side of Nitrile Rubber has been relieved. As of April 29th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14200-14300 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17200 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.19-4.29), the high price of raw material butadiene and the rising price of acrylonitrile have continued to support the cost of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11700 yuan/ton on April 19th; As of April 29th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10862 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.21% from the price of 10525 yuan/ton on April 19th.

Recently (4.19-4.29), domestic nitrile rubber plants started operating at a low level. The Lanzhou Petrochemical nitrile rubber plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance from May to June in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are limited, and the overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak near holidays.

Future Market Forecast: From a fundamental perspective, Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current high cost support for butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials in nitrile rubber; Downstream construction remains at a low level, which has a negative impact on nitrile rubber; The pressure on the supply of nitrile rubber has slowed down, and with the planned maintenance of the nitrile unit in Lanhua from May to June, it is expected to provide some support for the market. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the domestic price of water bottle grade PET was 7318 yuan/ton, and fiber grade PET was 6960 yuan/ton. In April, the overall focus of PET raw material negotiations was relatively low, with weak downward prices. PET lacks strong support on the cost side, and factory quotations are operating at high prices. Currently, the focus of PET market negotiations is downward, with overall market prices fluctuating downward. Downstream demand for replenishment is mainly, and there is no obvious willingness to hoard. At present, cost support is weak, and the PET market is difficult to improve in the short term.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the price support for PET raw materials was insufficient and lacked positive support. According to the industry chain’s ups and downs chart, both upstream ethylene glycol and PTA showed a downward trend. Currently, the downstream procurement atmosphere is average, with poor demand, and the overall market price upward momentum is insufficient. Since April, equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarting, and the supply side has been continuously improving. With the continuous increase in operating rates, inventory pressure has been increasing. Currently, downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and inventory is slowly consuming. In April, the focus of PTA market negotiations has shifted downwards, and PET’s cost support in April is insufficient.

In terms of cost: In April, the upstream PTA price showed a weak downward trend, the downstream market operating rate was relatively low, and the overall market demand was lower than expected. In April, the upstream ethylene glycol operated weakly with a narrow range, and PET had weak support on the cost side. Currently, the overall market supply is sufficient, approaching the May Day holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the downstream demand is small, mainly contract customers.

In terms of demand: Currently, the overall operating rate of the PET downstream market is stable, with a lack of enthusiasm for downstream procurement, high inventory levels, slow consumption, and mainly small orders. In the short term, prices will maintain the current trend, and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

3、 Future Market Forecast:

PET analysts from Business Society believe that currently, there is limited room for price increase in both upstream and downstream markets, and there is a lack of favorable support for PET costs. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream demand is weak, replenishment willingness is not strong, and order quantity is limited. In the short term, PET may maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices for water bottles at 7400 yuan/ton and fiber grades at 7000 yuan/ton. The overall market price fluctuation range is limited.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China this week first rose and then fell. On April 21, the sulfur price was 1223.33 yuan/ton, which was 1.66% higher than the sulfur price of 1203.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 13.98% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week’s sulfur market is running smoothly. The maintenance of refineries in Shandong region is concentrated, and the market supply of goods is still low. Enterprise inventory is relatively low, and most refineries have strong quotations. At the same time, downstream procurement is active, and market trading is good. Some enterprises have lowered their quotations due to high price increases in the early stage and downstream resistance. The overall sulfur market is still operating at a relatively high level. As of the 19th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1180-127 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1180-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market remained strong and stable, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 331.25 yuan/ton on April 21, which remained unchanged from the price of 331.25 yuan/ton on April 15. The domestic sulfuric acid market continues to remain stable, with acid companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining active shipments. Downstream demand expectations are weak, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. Under the game of supply and demand, sulfuric acid prices continue to remain stable.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market remained weak and stable. On April 21st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 2966.67 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 2966.67 yuan/ton on April 15th. The maintenance of ammonium phosphate equipment has increased, leading to a reduction in market supply. However, downstream demand is sluggish, and manufacturers have limited new orders and transactions. At the same time, the number of pending orders has decreased, putting pressure on enterprise sales. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market, and the price of ammonium phosphate is temporarily stable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur market has a lot of equipment maintenance, tight supply of goods, strong supplier support, stable downstream demand, and active enterprise shipments. Considering that downstream acceptance of high prices may weaken, it is expected that sulfur prices will stabilize slightly in the short term, with an overall strong operation. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 22, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4730 yuan/ton. DMF prices have remained stable this week, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, with smooth logistics and stable negotiation focus.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF has remained stable, with limited fluctuations compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is between 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are actively shipping with smooth logistics. Currently, there is some support for the cost of DMF, and it will continue to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the near future. Downstream enterprises require procurement and operation.

Chemical index: On April 21, the chemical index was 862 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain a stable, medium to strong operation, with mainstream prices maintained at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 19, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 4100 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4000 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (4.14-4.19), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. This week, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was mostly for rigid purchase orders, and the overall adjustment on the supply and demand side was not significant. The decline in the dimethyl carbonate market was mainly due to loose support on the cost side. This week, the raw material epoxy propane market has declined, and it is difficult for the cost side to continue providing support for dimethyl carbonate. The focus of negotiations on dimethyl carbonate has slightly shifted downwards. As of April 19, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on a reference of around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, the overall epoxy propane market has been declining recently. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, on April 19th, the price of epoxy propane was referenced at 9137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to April 14th.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is mild, and although the market situation has slightly changed, the mentality of the dimethyl carbonate industry is still good. The stable performance of downstream demand gives the market some confidence, and the market has a strong mentality of stability. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand and other news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the phenolic resin market experienced a slight decline this week. As of April 18th, the mainstream price of domestic phenolic resin (2123) was 9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.91% compared to April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

In terms of phenol, the phenol market is strong with a slight increase. The reference price for the East China phenol market is between 7600-7650 yuan/ton, and the purchasing interest in the terminal market is average. It is expected that the phenol market will remain strong in the short term, as there is a strong demand for participation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society analysts believe that although there is positive support for the cost side this week, there is ample inventory on the market, and downstream buyers are in urgent need. Some dealers have lowered their quotes to sell goods. In the short term, the upstream phenol market is strong, and there are signs of recovery in the phenolic resin market next week

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of raw silk continued to decline this week (4.8-4.12). As of April 12th, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 486950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2850 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared to the price of 489800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week; The average market price of dried cocoons is 164000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton or 0.61% compared to the price of 165000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

This week is during holidays such as Zhuang March 3rd and Dai Water Splashing Festival in Guangxi and Yunnan. According to incomplete understanding, some silk reeling enterprises have their workshops on vacation, while most silk reeling enterprises have their workshops on normal production or take compensatory leave. The price of raw silk in the new cocoon season continues to decline, with the majority of buyers and sellers holding prices and observing. The overall trading volume this week was average. This week, the prices of dried cocoons, raw silk, and silk floss have all been reduced to a certain extent overall, but the enthusiasm of manufacturers to purchase goods is average. High quality raw silk for export and domestic sales continues to be sold at high prices, while some 5A-6A grade raw silk in the regular domestic market remains at last week’s prices, while others have decreased slightly. The overall price has slightly decreased compared to last week.

In terms of fresh cocoon listing, spring cocoons in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions continue to be listed. Among them, the purchase prices of spring cocoons in Xuwen, Maoming Huazhou, and Yunfu Luoding regions in Zhanjiang, Guangdong have been basically maintained at around 55-62 yuan/kg recently. The purchase prices of spring cocoons in Yongning, Mashan, and Shanglin regions in Nanning, Guangxi have slightly increased. Based on the quality price, the current purchase price remains around 55-62 yuan/kg. The first batch of spring cocoons in Xincheng region is nearing completion, with the purchase price remaining at around 54-56 yuan/kg. The second batch of spring cocoons is expected to start listing around the 17th of this month, and there will continue to be small batches of spring cocoons listed in the surrounding areas of Yizhou at the same purchase price. There is a slight increase, currently maintained at around 55-59 yuan/kg.

In terms of weaving, as we enter mid April, there continues to be a trend of uneven heating and cooling, and the market reflects that orders for silk and satin varieties with export characteristics and regular domestic sales orders are not satisfactory. After the Qingming Festival holiday, there is also the March 3rd holiday, and the weaving process still maintains the rhythm of picking up goods according to demand.

From the past two weeks, it can be seen that there has been a significant downward trend in raw silk prices since the listing of Spring Cocoon, which objectively reflects that the current downstream demand is not very sufficient, domestic demand is still in the recovery period, and export growth is not significant. Therefore, overall, the industrial chain may face an oversupply situation in the future. Analysts from Business Society believe that Spring Cocoon is about to go public on a large scale, and after the Qingming Festival holiday, it will also usher in the March 3rd holiday. Downstream will still maintain the rhythm of on-demand procurement, and the prices of raw silk and dried cocoons will remain in a weak adjustment market in the short term.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the market for dichloromethane has risen first and then fell, fluctuating downward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% from 2525 yuan/ton on the first day and a decrease of 5.20% from the high point of 2595 yuan/ton in the cycle. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, the price of liquid chlorine first rose and then fell, and the cost support of dichloromethane still exists; At the beginning of the month, high raw material prices were supported by high costs, and the inventory of enterprises was low. Later, dichloromethane enterprises gradually accumulated inventory; The factory price of dichloromethane for enterprises first increased and then decreased. As of April 15th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2440-2480 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.1-4.15), there has been a slight fluctuation in the domestic supply of methane chlorides, with overall production starting around 70%.

In recent days (4.1-4.15), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has initially risen and then fallen slightly. The cost of dichloromethane continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from 2623 yuan/ton on the 1st. As of April 15th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 500 yuan/ton, which is lower than 700 yuan/ton in early April and higher than 300 yuan/ton at the end of March.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with merchants and terminals stocking up on demand. Currently, the main support for dichloromethane is in demand, and the market atmosphere is somewhat stagnant upstream and downstream.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the dichloromethane index chart of Shengyishe shows that from the beginning of the year to early March, the 7-day moving average of the dichloromethane index has always been below the 30 day moving average, and at this time, the overall spot market prices are in a downward trend; After crossing the 30 day moving average on the 7th of March, the spot price of dichloromethane showed an upward trend; At present, although the spot price of dichloromethane has slightly declined, the index chart shows that the 7-day moving average is still above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will still have strong support in the short term.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is increasing, and terminal inquiries are cautious; The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine first rose and then fell. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to fluctuate in the later period.