1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1254 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1258 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly by 0.32%, and the price rose 140.77% compared with the same period last year. On June 19, the caustic soda commodity index was 181.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.82% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 178.01% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable and dynamic. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1180-1280 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1250-1450 yuan / ton. As a whole, the supply of the enterprise was not started, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated, and the downstream enterprises mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise delivers goods in general, has a heavy wait-and-see mood on the site, and has limited downstream receiving capacity.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 24th week of 2022 (6.13-6.17), there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 0 kind of commodities rising or falling to zero in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising are: light soda ash (0.34%), caustic soda (0.32%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-4.35%), calcium carbide (-2.12%) and PVC (-2.00%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.56%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidated and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious. Most of the alumina is purchased on demand. The overall demand is limited, and there is a possibility of price reduction. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent consolidation of caustic soda will be dominated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 10 to 17, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 18020 yuan / ton to 18180 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.89%, a month on month price increase of 1.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.94%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 20:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18500-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

East China, 18700-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

South China, 18500-18600 yuan / ton, 18000 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell. The main factors were the decline of crude oil, the weakness of the external market, and the superposition of the port inventory to stop the decline, resulting in a change in profit mentality and an increase in market shipments.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

Aniline: at present, the domestic aniline high price is still supported by the raw material pure benzene, the downstream just needs to follow up, and the profit transmission of the industrial chain is OK.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, and downstream demand is expected to be further opened. In the future, the analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly high and volatile.

DOTP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of June 20, the price of DOTP was 11487.50 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with 12200 yuan / ton on June 12 last weekend, it fell by 5.84%. This week, the decline of raw material prices accumulated the off-season demand, the decline of DOTP cost and insufficient demand, and the DOTP market fell violently.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the trading agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell violently this week, and the overall isooctanol market fell. As of June 20, the isooctanol price was 10733.33 yuan / ton, down 12.74% from the isooctanol price of 12300.00 yuan / ton on June 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

PTA prices fell back from high level this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high PTA price fell this week, and the overall PTA market fell. As of June 20, the PTA price was 7200.00 yuan / ton, down 6.75% from 7720.73 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The high crude oil price fell back, PTA price fell in shock this week, DOTP cost support weakened, DOTP positive momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, PTA price fell in shock, the demand in the off-season was insufficient, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell and the demand was insufficient. The downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 17, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas in China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 976 yuan / ton), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 6.83%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to hit a high level, the on-site phosphorus ore supply continued to be tight, and the market focus continued to rise. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, and only a small amount of inventory was shipped out. The tight situation of spot circulation of high-end phosphorus ore in the market has not improved much. As of June 17 this weekend, In Guizhou, the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 50-70 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore of Guizhou and Hubei large mining enterprises is mainly for their own use after production, and there is no external sales source. Most of the enterprises that can supply phosphate ore also have a strong reluctance to sell, and pre orders are mainly discussed.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market first fell and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price mainly operated downward, and at the end of the week, the market faced a slight rebound. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 17, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38166.67 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (38666.67 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.28%.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, with years of mining, China’s phosphate rock resources have been continuously reduced. With good downstream demand, the tight market supply situation is difficult to be greatly alleviated in the short term. The phosphate rock datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 16, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 11266 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the ex factory price of butanone was 11900 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 634 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.32%. Compared with June 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10433 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 833 yuan / ton, or 7.99%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the overall high level of domestic butanone market fell this week, with a decline of about 5.32% in the week. At the beginning of this week, in the face of the current high market situation of butanone, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was aggravated, the demand was cautious, the trading atmosphere in the floor was light, and the demand support was loose. Under the influence of this, the market focus of butanone fell, the factory offer was lowered continuously, the traders’ quotations were mostly in line with the market, and the market price continued to decline. As of June 16, the ex factory price of butanone was around 10200-10400 yuan / ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan / ton in the week. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is still low, and the downstream is mainly preparing goods on demand and negotiating with actual orders.

Upstream, on June 15, the domestic liquefied gas market weakened as a whole, and the price of Shandong civil gas market continued to fall, with a downward range of about 50 yuan / ton. In the morning, the international crude oil price fell in a bad market mentality. In addition, in the current traditional off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the civil price of liquefied gas will continue to be weak in the short term.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the supply side of butanone field has given some support to the market. In June, the field start-up was low, and the overall pressure on the supply side was small, but the overall performance of the demand side was average. The butanone data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

The domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 6 to 10, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 17000 yuan / ton to 18020 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 6.00%, a month on month price increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.42%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 10:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong, 18000 yuan / ton, 17600-18000 yuan / ton

East China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders by June 10:

Raw material pure benzene: the main factors supporting the price rise of pure benzene include the rise of external market, the decline of domestic port inventory, the restart of downstream automobile transportation pure benzene consumer enterprises, the rise of styrene and other factors.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

 
Aniline: at present, the high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng has a maintenance plan in late June. If the maintenance plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business community:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

Monthly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

Weekly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

List of rise and fall of product prices in the MDI industrial chain of business community aggregation:

List of price rise and fall of products in the sector of MDI aggregated by business club:

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, but with the gradual easing of market supply and demand. In the future, the analysts of the business community aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is dominated by shock consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8650 yuan / ton on June 12, up 2.11% from 8471.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.21% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the PVC market continued to rise. The futures rose to above 8800, driving the spot market prices to rise synchronously. Prices in many places in China rose for several days. However, the atmosphere of high price transaction was general. The downstream product industry started poorly, the real estate sector was still weak. At the same time, the export sector weakened, and the demand side recovered less than expected. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was lowered, and the cost side support fell, which was bad for many parties, PVC prices stopped rising and turned to falling in the middle and late weeks of the week, and the market became weak. By the end of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4050 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8400-8850 yuan / ton. At present, the external price is quoted at USD 1190 / ton in CFR China, USD 1285 / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, and USD 1380 / ton in CFR India.

It can be seen from the weekly increase and decrease from March 21, 2022 to June 12, 2022 that domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle. The maximum increase was in the week of March 28 and the maximum decrease was in the week of May 23. The overall fluctuation in the near future is not large.

For international crude oil, the oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. On June 10, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Ethylene, as of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1026-1036 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at USD 1677-1687 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at USD 1423-1431 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the 9th, the price was 662-680 yuan / ton. This week, the overall trend of ethylene in the external market was rising first and then falling. It was mainly dominated by European and American ethylene. The actual transaction was poor and the price fluctuated and fell.

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide increased. However, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid June.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current demand has recovered, but it is less than expected. After the PVC price rises, the market trading is poor. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate and decline in the short term.

From June 2 to June 10, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China increased slightly. The price was 80000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.62%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, slowed down at the end of April, stabilized in May and slightly warmed up in June.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., June 2, June 10, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 13600.,13350.,- two hundred and fifty

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, but the overall downward trend slowed down. By June 10, the price was $13350 / ton, with a weekly decrease of $250 / ton.

This week, the market price of antimony ingots increased slightly, and the market sentiment was better than that in the early stage. The main reason was that the demand for antimony oxide was expected to improve. Therefore, the smelter was reluctant to sell and had a certain price support mentality. However, in terms of actual demand, the early influencing factors have not been substantially improved. The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the supply of antimony ingots is still tight. Therefore, the increase of market price this week is limited. It is expected that in the future, when there is a small increase in downstream demand, the market price may rise slightly in the near future, but the upward space is limited.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., June 2, June 10, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,69500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable. With the digestion of the market, the antimony oxide inventory has declined recently, and enterprises have a certain demand for purchasing antimony ingots.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5500.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2.48%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On June 9, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 144.74, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 49.66% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers rose slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5500 yuan / ton of potassium chloride at the end of this week, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5500 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5500 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5200 yuan / ton. The border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate rose slightly this week, from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9900.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.28%, an increase of 46.88% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week, from 7587.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7637.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.66%, an increase of 66.76% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was good.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow range fluctuation. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge is adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, the downstream demand was good, and it was just needed to purchase. The international potash price is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 8, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 11966 yuan / ton. Compared with June 5 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10733 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1233 yuan / ton, or 11.49%. Compared with June 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10433 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 14.70%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in early June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic butanone market had a slight upward movement under the small-scale downstream goods preparation. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand of butanone market was mainly for procurement, the international crude oil price rose, and the rising carbon 4 price after the raw ether gave butanone more cost support. The overall operating rate in the butanone plant was low, the inventory pressure was reduced, and some factories were reluctant to sell, The supply side also effectively consolidated the butanone market. Therefore, with the dual support of the supply side and the cost side, the domestic butanone market ushered in a broad rise after the holiday. As of June 9, the domestic butanone market price was around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 11% after the holiday. At present, after the rapid rise of butanone market, the on-site wait-and-see mood has increased, and the downstream goods preparation is generally cautious, mainly followed by small orders.

In the upstream, in June, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market was strong, and Shandong civil gas market took the lead after the festival. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 6237.50 yuan / ton on June 1, and 6362.50 yuan / ton on June 7. During this period, the increase was 2.00%, an increase of 53.93% over the same period last year. The beginning of the month coincided with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market was strong, and the price focus of Shandong civil gas market moved upward. The main positive factors of this rising market came from international crude oil. After the festival, international crude oil rose violently, bringing obvious support to the market. In addition, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The market trading atmosphere is mild, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, and the price increases. However, due to the weak terminal demand, the rising market was blocked. In addition, the current civil gas price was at a relatively high level, and the market continued to rise. On the 7th, the price fell sharply.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the transaction at high prices in the butanone market is cautious. The downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. The factory is still willing to support the price, but the domestic demand is generally boosted. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly be sorted out and operated in multiple ranges, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand of butanone.