1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and some spot prices fell. As of July 15, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5450 yuan / ton, up or down -2.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to operate weakly in the early stage. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises fell, and the overall operating rate fell to 40%, but the on-site supply was affected by the export policy, but the pressure increased. In terms of potassium chloride, the potassium price of domestic enterprises is weak and stable, the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate is general, the arrival of border trade surged in the early stage, and it is still in transit, and the price of imported goods is weak, which affects the loose spot offer and weakens the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market quotation of potassium sulfate fell. In terms of demand, the demand in Northeast China weakened, and there were few new orders. Traders responded that the trading was general, and the on-site inventory rose.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the potassium chloride market continued to decline. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, the follow-up of the demand side is poor, the export of supply side is blocked, and the pressure of domestic supply sources increases. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to fall in the short term due to the increase in supply and the decline in cost.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10800 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a slight increase of 0.93%.

At present, the domestic price of activated carbon has increased slightly. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; The transaction in the activated carbon market has warmed up, market inquiries have increased, the quotation part has increased slightly, and the transaction in the downstream market has improved slightly. We should focus on the market transaction.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon may be dominated by strong shocks. Please contact the manufacturer for specific prices, mainly through negotiation.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell weakly this week

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market fell this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell. As of July 18, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from 11075 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The industry chain market rebounded and adjusted, and the domestic aluminum fluoride market may pick up.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable this week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and stabilized this week. The raw material market has stabilized, the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized, the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the downward pressure remains.

Cryolite prices rebounded this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite rebounded this week, and the cryolite market consolidated. As of July 18, the price of cryolite was 7650 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from the price fluctuation at the end of last week. The price of cryolite stopped falling and rose, and the demand for cryolite was consolidated.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and fluorite has stabilized this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has temporarily stabilized; Cryolite prices stopped falling and rebounded, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride temporarily stabilized, and the export orders of aluminum fluoride showed a trend of improvement. Generally speaking, the cost tends to stabilize, and the demand tends to improve. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will pick up in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market continued to decline this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, up or down -3.39% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose this week. Recently, due to the good digestion of propylene inventory in the field, the supply has narrowed, and enterprises and merchants have increased their sales. However, the current downstream rigid demand is not strong, and it is more resistant to high price supply. In addition, the weakness of raw material end and the gradual cooling of trading have hindered the rise of propylene price. The market stabilized after rising this week, and it is expected that the propylene market may turn into a weak operation in the near future.

Propylene prices rose, but crude oil fell sharply in the early stage due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support was weak this week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was adjusted this week, and the real-time loss capacity was expanded, but the current supply pressure is still large. The inventory digestion of enterprises and midstream is not as good as last week, and the inventory position continues to rise, and is at the high position over the years. In terms of demand, the downstream factories of wire drawing materials purchase and follow-up are biased towards just need to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy on bargain hunting and have a strong resistance to high price sources. Traders’ shipments are in line with the market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has decreased by a narrow margin. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials may continue to be weak and adjusted.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 15, the spot price of domestic fiber PP gradually fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8216.67 yuan / ton, up or down -4.27% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of -4.09%. This week, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, continued to drop, and the demand and operation of end enterprises continued on the whole. Large enterprises just needed to take goods to maintain production, while the load of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased or even stopped production. The consumption of products maintains the off-season mode, and the replenishment operation tends to maintain production. The demand for medical fiber products has also cooled, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant, and the market momentum is reduced. It is expected that the fiber material may remain weak in the off-season market in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of July 15, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9566.67 yuan / ton, up or down -0.35% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased, and the epidemic prevention pressure continues to fluctuate. However, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased, which does not significantly support the spot price. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP will maintain a weak operation along with other PP varieties.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell this week, the rise of raw material propylene market was blocked, the decline of international crude oil intensified, and the cost side support of PP weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises expands slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. It is expected that the PP market may continue to be weak in the near future.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 8th, the average price in the domestic market was 25333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.18% on a weekly basis. This week, the magnesium ingot price was weak. After the price fell at the beginning of the week, it has been running steadily, and the magnesium ingot Market shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing.

Supply and demand

Under the pressure of the traditional off-season from July to August, the downstream purchase intention is low, and the overall transaction performance is general. Considering the cost of magnesium plants, the current magnesium price has been at the edge of the cost line, and the plants still maintain cautious shipments, and some do not offer prices temporarily.

Upstream and downstream

On July 8, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 7800-8000 yuan / ton, the price of ferrosilicon fell below the cost price, and some manufacturers began to take the initiative to reduce production and guarantee prices. The futures market fluctuated at a low level, and the bidding price in July was lower than the market expectation, which suppressed the spot price of ferrosilicon. At the same time, the price of blue carbon fell, and the production pressure of magnesium plants became more obvious.

The downstream magnesium alloy and magnesium powder are weak, and the production of magnesium alloy enterprises is relatively stable. Due to the weak downstream demand for magnesium powder, the production and operation of magnesium powder enterprises are weak.

Aftermarket forecast

Raw material ferrosilicon is weak, the price of blue carbon is down, and the operating pressure of magnesium plant is increasing; At the same time, as the price approaches the cost line and the factory operation in summer, the cost pressure of magnesium plants also increases, and the possibility of magnesium ingot prices continuing to fall is small. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the magnesium market has continued to operate under pressure in recent two months under the current situation of weak demand and the absence of good news in the market. Business analysts believe that magnesium ingot prices may be deadlocked in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market continued to decline last week, and the decline of spot prices of various brands was reduced. As of July 11, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 20066.67 yuan / ton, up or down -1.63% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell last week. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1230-1260 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has fallen, the cost support is poor, the formaldehyde market has fallen under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. It is hard to maintain the rigid demand for procurement. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market has weakened slightly.

The upstream formaldehyde market fell, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the load of some domestic POM enterprises fell last week, but the on-site supply was abundant, and the pressure reduction effect of lost capacity on the supply side was limited. At present, the inventory of manufacturers and midstream enterprises is high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM in the field is slow, and the situation is in the off-season mode. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. The main bad news on the floor was the high inventory caused by insufficient demand. The mentality of merchants was general, and the offer was mainly reduced with the enterprises.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market continued to decline last week, the upstream formaldehyde market fell, and the cost support of POM weakened. The load of POM industry decreased, and the supply side remained abundant. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the POM price may fall due to the inventory of Gaozhu and give priority to profit.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, with sporadic small single trading. With the restart of some maintenance devices, the support of the market supply side weakened. The terminal demand continues to be light, and the enthusiasm for construction in many downstream industries is not high.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from July 4 to 11, the domestic BDO market price fell from 19800 yuan / ton to 17880 yuan / ton, with a weekly price drop of 9.70%, a month on month price drop of 20.46%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.02%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 16700-17300 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 19000-20000 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 17000-17300 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 19000-20000 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: after the maintenance of Erdos chemical, the supply of commercial calcium carbide decreased, but the downstream fatigue is difficult to support the sharp rebound of calcium carbide. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the overall operation is still finishing.

In terms of methanol, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, the marginal demand is weakened, and the short-term methanol market is mainly weak and declining. BDO cost side support weakened.

The downstream PTMEG spandex and gbl-nmp industrial chain, PBT and PBAT industries all fell sharply driven by weak terminal demand and downward raw material prices.

With the restart of the maintenance device, the supply will increase, while the overall operation of the downstream is low, the willingness to purchase is not strong, and the price of raw materials is seriously depressed. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market was stable in the previous week, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted in a narrow range. As of July 11, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12800 yuan / ton, up or down -2.66% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and consolidated last week. Affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost was the dominant force. The market price of pure benzene in China fell to 9235 yuan / ton, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the inventory of enterprises were low, which restrained the decline of styrene. The transaction in the styrene market was general, and the spot price fluctuated slightly.

The price of acrylonitrile was mainly deadlocked last week. Under the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, the downstream rigid demand is dominated, and the price focus of propylene is still on the downward trend in the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down. The market is in a stalemate due to the long short game. Propylene market is expected to run at a low level in the near future.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market was adjusted at a low level. Due to the early increase in export sales of northeast sources and the restart of devices in Shandong, the market expectation was short, and the poor transaction dragged the supplier’s price downward. Then, under the centralized influence of some supply side news, the mentality of merchants slightly strengthened, while the high cost of goods in East China affected the strong offer intention, but the downstream rigid demand boost was limited, and some high price transactions were deadlocked.

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a general trend. Previously, the price fluctuation of international crude oil was intensified due to the interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, which was bad for the oil and chemical industry chain, and the cost support of ABS was poor. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants cut prices and took orders, stimulating some trading after giving up profits, and the ABS spot price stabilized.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell narrowly last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. The domestic spot supply is abundant, and the demand follow-up is poor. Recently, the spot price on the floor has fallen to the equilibrium point, and the current market is sideways. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 59841.67 yuan / ton, down 2.89% from 61625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 13.12% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past three months, copper prices have risen by 3 and fell by 9. Recently, copper prices have fallen continuously.

Macro: the dollar soared to a 20-year high, pessimism broke out, and the CNN fear greed index was only 21, and the market was in a state of extreme panic. The manufacturing PMI of Europe and the United States in June has been released, recording 53 and 52.1 respectively, both lower than that of May. New orders in the United States fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2020, only 49.2. Waller and Brad, the two most hawkish decision makers of the Federal Reserve, supported an additional 75 basis points increase in interest rates this month to curb inflation, while downplaying concerns about the U.S. economy heading for recession.

Fundamentals: in terms of supply, the interference at the copper mine end in South America intensified in the middle and early June, but it has basically eased towards the end of the month. In the week of July 1, cspt held an online meeting and decided that the spot TC guide price of copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2022 was $80 / dry ton, unchanged from the second quarter. In terms of demand, in the off-season of consumption, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is lower than the normal level in previous years. As the price fell relatively violently before, the downstream enterprises were afraid of falling and refused to adopt seriously.

To sum up, the domestic supply center is expected to rise, and the smelting enthusiasm is still high; The recovery intensity of domestic consumption is weak, and downstream procurement has not improved due to the sharp decline in prices, although the current domestic inventory is still low. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a low level of about 60000 yuan / ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 11390 yuan / ton on June 1, and 10770 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid fell by 5.44% this month.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 11200 yuan / ton on June 1, and 10733 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China fell 4.17% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market fell in June, with 85 industrial grade phosphoric acid falling by 5.44% in the month, and the market focus fell. In the first ten days of June, the phosphoric acid market was temporarily stable, and from the middle of June, the phosphoric acid market began to decline to the end of the month. Due to the high price decline of yellow phosphorus as raw material this month, the cost support is weakened, and the downstream demand is generally followed up, the price of phosphoric acid is lowered. The confidence in the venue is insufficient, and the industry is cautious to wait and see. As of June 30, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10770 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10733 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 10300-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10250-10400 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 11000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this month. The market price of 30% phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 920-970 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, with only a small amount of goods for external sales. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholders and customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market, yellow phosphorus market price fell this month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market price of yellow phosphorus is relatively stable, mainly at a high price, and the shipment situation is acceptable. In the second week of June, there was a short-term decline in the lower price competition of yellow phosphorus. Considering the cost pressure, the manufacturer’s quotation rebounded again. In the third and fourth weeks of June, downstream and traders were more cautious about the supply of high price goods. They stayed on the sidelines, mainly purchasing at low prices, and the price of yellow phosphorus fell again. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of business agency, the price of phosphoric acid market fell with the support of cost in June, and the raw material yellow phosphorus market was poor, and the support was weakened. The downstream is resistant to high priced phosphoric acid, and operates cautiously under the downward trend, mainly with a small amount of replenishment. In the absence of positive market conditions, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term, and the price will continue to decline.