According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9226.67 yuan / ton, down 12.13% compared with July 1, down 19.06% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 45.08% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the propylene oxide market fluctuated and fell. In the first ten days, the price of raw propylene fell, the cost support weakened, the supply side was dominated by stability, and the demand side followed up with cautious reduction. As the market trading atmosphere weakened, the market accumulated a small amount of reserves, and the market stalemate weakened. In the middle of the year, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, with limited cost support. Some of the supply side devices stopped for a short time to reduce the burden, and the price rose slightly. The downstream mentality was still cautious, and the purchase enthusiasm was not high, and the market game weakened again. In the last ten days, the cost side was under pressure, and some units fell negative, but many inventories were under pressure, and the downstream reduction was followed up carefully. As the price fell, the market atmosphere warmed up, and the downstream increased the purchase volume, the price stopped falling and rose, and the inventory pressure was relieved. On the 28th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to fluctuate and decline in July, and the price further fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 7680 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 7234 yuan / ton, a monthly decrease of 5.81%.

Downstream propylene glycol, on July 28, the reference price of propylene glycol was 8083.33, a decrease of 31.88% compared with July 1 (11866.67).

The propylene oxide analyst of business agency believes that at present, the cost pressure is large, the manufacturer’s price support mentality, the market supply increases steadily, and the demand side can follow up. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may rise and wait-and-see, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2700 yuan / ton, up 0.41% from 2688.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 3.40% year-on-year.

In July, the price of fluorite rose slightly, and the on-site operation was general. Due to the blocked transportation of fluorite supply in some regions, the on-site spot fluorite was tight, the operating rate of fluorite devices in the North rose slowly, the trading atmosphere in the on-site rose, and the price of fluorite rose slightly. Some units of domestic Southern fluorite manufacturers started and restarted, the commencement of mines and flotation units in the site increased, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site was in good condition, some small factories were in a shutdown state, and the market price of fluorite rose slightly. In June, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, but the downstream of the terminal was mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2550-2650 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2650-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2650-2700 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price rose slightly in July.

The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price of fluorite fell slightly this month. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11280 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.09% in July. The decline of hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the affected rise of fluorite price is limited.

The price of downstream refrigerant products rose slightly. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remained low. Recently, the sales of the automotive industry increased month on month. The refrigerant market changed little. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchased on demand, and the refrigerant industry market rose slightly. On the whole, the refrigerant market is mainly stable, and the price trend of chloroform is declining, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry decline. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly. The main manufacturers of refrigerants are still not operating well, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand in R22 market application field is poor, and the enterprise quotation is mainly stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a prices rose slightly, trichloroethylene prices remained low, cost support was limited, R134a market prices rose slightly, and the focus of trading was low. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 19000-23000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise is eager to ship, the actual transaction is more profitable, and the downstream refrigerant market is slightly higher, which has little impact on the rise of fluorite price.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry remains low, but there are many restart of enterprise devices in the later stage, coupled with the decline in the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the market, the impact of negative factors, and the increase in the supply of fluorite in Inner Mongolia, business analyst Chen Ling believes that it is difficult for the fluorite market price to rise in the short term, and the fluorite price may remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell by a wide margin this month. On July 1, the price was 9250-9550 yuan / ton (the average price was 9509 yuan / ton); On July 28, the price was 8750-9150 yuan / ton (the average price was 9026 yuan / ton), a decrease of 5.08% this month, an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the large number of downstream units put into production in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene was tight, domestic trade shipments decreased, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks decreased, and the ports maintained a de stocking state in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure.

This month, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 450 yuan / ton to 9150 yuan / ton (from Hebei and Shandong to 8750 yuan / ton).

In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.

In the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded slightly after a wide decline in the external market this month. On July 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1085 / ton, down $183 / ton, or 14.43%; Pure benzene imported from East China was $1099 / ton, down $168 / ton, or 13.26%.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 10526 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9657 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.28% this month, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year.

Aniline: in the first half of the month, aniline was relatively strong, but the price fell in the second half of the month due to the weakening cost and poor downstream demand. At the beginning of the month, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell by 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.02% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

In the short term, the pure benzene port is still in the state of de stocking, but the market expects that the tight supply of pure benzene in August may be relieved, and the import volume of pure benzene will increase in the later period, so pure benzene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline in July. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3350.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 3033.33 yuan / ton on July 29, with an overall decline of 9.45% in the month.

Affected by the continuous decline of upstream raw material prices, some manufacturers reduced the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite slightly in July, driving the overall market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite to rise and fall. With the price of upstream raw materials further falling, the downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the increase of new orders of manufacturers is limited. In order to ensure shipment, manufacturers have successively reduced the ex factory price again, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to continue to decline in July.

In July, the price of domestic soda ash fell slightly, falling by 3.42% during the month, the price of domestic sulfur plummeted by 73.91%, the price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the overall market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was under pressure in the future under the pressure of cost transmission.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the cost of raw materials continues to decline, downstream procurement is more cautious, and under the dual pressure of cost and demand, it is expected that the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will still have some room to fall in August.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of July 28, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -21.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price continued to decline in July. Upstream pure benzene fluctuated and fell due to the impact of intensified international crude oil fluctuations, and the decline of cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products deepened, and the negative cost side intensified. In addition, the high inventory pressure in the early stage, the price reduction of the manufacturer’s inventory, the pressure on the market mentality, and the light market demand and other reasons. In the later stage, the business community believes that under the background of inflation, the global central bank’s interest rate hike will bring down demand expectations, and the short-term oil price will still be suppressed. Therefore, pure benzene may still be difficult to make much progress. The pressure on the manufacturer’s inventory is still prominent. Except Zhonghao, the device gradually resumes operation, Xinjiang Tianli reduces the load by 50%, and other devices operate normally. The pressure on the supply side still suppresses the price of adipic acid. Adipic acid market is expected to remain weak.

Adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell sharply, and adiponitrile was in abundant supply in the market. The sharp fluctuations of international crude oil are bad for the petrochemical industry chain, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industry operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the domestic PA66 industry load level continued to fall in July, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell at a low level in July. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises has been reduced by a narrow margin, but there is a deep contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The demand side is not enough to take goods, and the market trading has continued to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term and continue its weak market.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell sharply this week, and the average market price fell from 226.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 196.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 13.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 14.49% year-on-year. On July 24, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 51.76, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.46% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 187.88% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dongming Petrochemical hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Wen Shui synthetic hydrochloric acid is quoted at 180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid quoted 260 yuan / ton this weekend, down 90 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 2210.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2153.75 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 2.55%, up 27.44% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 1472.50 yuan / ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The market prices of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride have declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell weakly this week

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market fell this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell. As of July 25, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10900 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from 11075 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of fluorite rose violently this week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized this week. The raw material market fluctuated and adjusted, the cost of aluminum fluoride stabilized, and the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride increased, and the downward pressure remained.

Cryolite price shocks and stabilizes this week

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of cryolite has stabilized and the cryolite market has consolidated this week. As of July 25, the price of cryolite was 7650 yuan / ton, which was more stable than that at the end of last week. The price of cryolite was more stable, and the demand for cryolite was volatile and consolidated.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, has stabilized this week, fluorite prices have risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen; Cryolite prices are stabilizing, aluminum fluoride supply and demand are temporarily stable, and aluminum fluoride demand is stable. Generally speaking, the cost is strong and stable, and the demand is stable. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be weak and stable in the future.

Last week (July 18-24), viscose staple fiber continued to run in a stalemate, prices fell, factory inventories increased, and the market was facing downward pressure. Manufacturers actively support prices, most of them offer stable prices, and most of them say they would rather reduce production than reduce prices. Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the method of reducing production speed, so as to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and rising inventory, and delay their own pulp inventory consumption. The number of factories signing orders was limited, and the production and sales were weak, which began to fall into a stalemate. Most cotton mills believed that the price of viscose staple fiber was difficult to maintain the current situation. Downstream cotton yarn prices fell significantly, popularity was relatively low, trading was light, and the overall inventory of the industry was still rising.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of July 24, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber was 15580 yuan / ton, and the price fell. The price of cotton yarn fell significantly, (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) the average ex factory price was 18866 yuan / ton, down 234 yuan / ton from last week, a weekly decline of 1.22%.

According to the analysis of the reasons, the cost support is not reduced, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber is generally maintained at a high level. However, the demand for cotton yarn from downstream people is light, showing a situation of price without market, the factory inventory increases, the factory mentality is cautious, and the willingness to stabilize the price is strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions, but the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, the trading volume has always been general, and the downstream order taking volume has always been general, and the whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber showed a trend of price without market, and factory inventory increased. Business analysts predicted that the price of viscose staple fiber would face downward pressure.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable. On July 22, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the quotation at the beginning of the week, and the price increased by 0.66% month on month.

quotations analysis

The cryolite market remained stable at a high level this week, and the quotations of major enterprises in Henan Province operated smoothly according to their own shipments. At present, the main factors affecting prices are still raw materials. The supply of goods is tight, the price is high, and the superimposed market coal and gas prices are high. Cryolite enterprise manufacturers have great production pressure, enterprise inventories are tight, cryolite prices remain high, downstream demand is stable, and enterprise shipments are relatively smooth, The operator’s mentality is to wait and see. As of July 22, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, and the range price was temporarily stable.

The upstream soda ash is weak in operation. As of July 22, the average market price was about 2870 yuan / ton. The price fell slightly during the week, down 0.70% from last weekend. The downstream wait-and-see mentality is dominated, and there is still resistance to high prices. The demand is weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high, the manufacturers negotiate to ship, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the soda ash price fluctuates slightly downward.

On the downstream side, the aluminum market improved this week. On July 22, the aluminum price was about 18000 yuan / ton, up 3.24% during the week. During the week, domestic aluminum ingots and rods were still removed from the warehouse, but the extent of removal slowed down. At present, the total domestic inventory is still lower than that of the same period last year. The domestic aluminum inventory pressure is not large, the market supply and demand performance is deadlocked, and the aluminum market is volatile.

Aftermarket forecast

Domestic cryolite manufacturers have great production pressure, raw material shortage and high fuel costs, which support the high operation of cryolite prices. The short-term downstream demand is stable, and the manufacturer’s shipment is OK. There is no other news released on the floor. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to operate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of July 21, and the white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. This week, the overall market of white carbon black was mainly in stable operation, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general, and the overall market was stable, with stable trend and balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply side was normal, and it was mainly just in need of procurement.

The market price of silica has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Upstream hydrochloric acid: the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined slightly, with general cost support. The market of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened.

Chemical industry index: on July 20, the chemical industry index was 1031 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 26.36% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 72.41% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The silica analyst of business agency believes that the trend of rubber grade silica is stable in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information, and master commodity prices).