According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 16 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 0.30% from 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 16, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day holiday, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily average output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, and the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, Crude oil prices fell for three days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 12, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore fell by 2.698 million barrels to a four week low of 20.201 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory rose 309000 barrels to a three week high of 8.139 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased 375000 barrels to a seven week high of 16.577 million barrels.

Future market forecast: the international crude oil market has declined in the near future, the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, and the ship fuel cost is under overall pressure. After the festival, the downstream of the ship fuel market is stocked, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3950.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 6.28%, down 49.36% year-on-year. On October 16, the carbide commodity index was 103.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.24% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 86.50% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream manufacturers’ demand is average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The PVC market price this week rose from 6265.71 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6281.43 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.25%, and a year-on-year drop of 56.60%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers were more enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream market fluctuates in a narrow range, and calcium carbide may rise in the future

In the middle and late October, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue carbon runs at a high level, the cost of calcium carbide is well supported, the PVC market in the downstream fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is general. In the middle and late October, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 4066.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3933.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.28%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3660-3880 yuan/ton. On October 16, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, 28.49% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 7.03% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake was 3660-3880 yuan/ton. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, down 200 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, down 200 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3700-3900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3700-3900 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3600-3700 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9375.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.80%, 17.35% higher than the same period last year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, at 6425.00 yuan/ton, up 18.43% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

In the middle and late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow shocks. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, mainly for the purchase of steel. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, on October 8 and 14, the domestic ethanol market was in shock. The average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 6787 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.18% within the week, rose 1.12 month on month, and rose 4.02% year on year.

The domestic ethanol market was in shock and consolidation. After the holiday, the downstream demand for ethanol was stable, and the starting load was not boosted. At the same time, the logistics recovered after the holiday, and the domestic ethanol market was dominated by normal spot shipments. The price of raw corn was adjusted by shocks, with a short-term upward trend as the main trend. The cost of ethanol was strongly supported. In terms of demand, the operating rate of chemical ethyl acetate was high, which was driven by favorable factors in the short term.

In terms of raw materials and costs, the business community monitored the weak price of domestic corn market, which fell by 0.18% from 2800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2797 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

In terms of downstream products, the order volume of ethyl acetate in the chemical industry was stable. With the boost of foreign trade demand, the high load was maintained, and the overall market demand improved. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the paint industry, the demand was stable.

Raw corn was boosted in the short term, but with the new grain coming into the market after the festival, the high price was difficult to maintain, and the demand recovery was difficult to see an increase in the short term. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

The price of domestic fluorite rose. As of December 12, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2943.75 yuan/ton, 3.09% higher than the price of 2855.56 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Now the price has reached the highest point in the year. Since the middle of September, the fluorite market has risen significantly.

Supply side: raw ore is very tight, fluorite enterprises are under pressure

Recently, the supply side operation rate has declined, mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited operation of fluorite enterprises, insufficient spot supply, and rising fluorite prices. Recently, the commencement of some fluorite mines and flotation has remained low. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited, and the fluorite market price has risen continuously. As of December 12, the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Inner Mongolia was 2950-3050 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Fujian was 2900-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Henan was 2950-3050 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3050 yuan/ton.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

In October, the price of hydrofluoric acid market in the downstream of fluorite rose. As of December 12, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.15%. The hydrofluoric acid enterprises started work normally, and the demand was guaranteed. The rise in the price of hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price of fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense, military, and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, and photovoltaic panels. With the demand for new energy, the outlook of the fluorite industry chain has been improved accordingly.

Future predictions: the northern fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition, the supply of raw ore is very tight in the near future. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market is rising, and the demand in the new energy field is driving. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that the fluorite market price may continue to rise.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, 2022, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8333 yuan/ton, down 283 yuan/ton, or 3.29%, compared with September 1 (8616 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.30), the domestic n-propanol market has been in a volatile and downward movement as a whole. In the first ten days of September, at the beginning of the month, the n-propanol market was running down as a whole. The price reduction of n-propanol by Shandong’s large factories led to the downward trend of the market. On September 7, the n-propanol market price in Shandong was near 7800-8000 yuan/ton. As the Mid Autumn Festival approached, the n-propanol market was steadily warming up, boosted by the downstream demand for goods preparation. As of September 15, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7900-8300 yuan/ton.

In late September, facing the upcoming National Day holiday, n-propanol manufacturers actively shipped. In Shandong, n-propanol manufacturers mostly adjusted their prices according to their own inventory and other factors. The overall market trend fell back to a high level. The low end price of n-propanol in Shandong was close to 7600 yuan/ton. There was a large difference between high and low prices on the market. Since the 26th, with the digestion of demand, the low price supply in the market has gradually decreased, and the overall market of n-propanol has risen slightly, As of September 29, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was 8000-8200 yuan/ton. Distributors around the country have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. The actual order negotiations are the main thing. We will wait and see the changes in raw material prices and shipments in the future.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the domestic n-propanol market news is relatively calm. As the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream stock preparation is about to come to an end. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be mostly stable and slightly dynamic, with interval adjustment as the main operation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In September, the market of styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 30, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11800 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from 11783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 11830 yuan/ton, and the monthly low point was 11733 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, there is a small increase compared with the early stage, and there is a certain need for support for styrene butadiene rubber; The price of raw materials rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker in the face of butadiene benzene support; The supply side is relatively loose, forming a small negative for SBR. As of the 30th day, the market offer of SBR 1502 was RMB 11700~12200/ton

SBR supply fluctuated slightly in September. Shenhua Chemical SBR started to operate from Line 2 to Line 3 at the beginning of the month; Li Changrong started the shutdown and maintenance of 50000 t/a styrene butadiene unit at the beginning of the month to the middle of the month; Weitai began to reduce its load to the first line in the middle of the month.

The cost support of SBR in September was first strong and then weak. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker from strong to weak in the face of styrene butadiene rubber support. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 29, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, down 4.14% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 9277 yuan/ton. As of September 29, the price of styrene was 9312 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from 9075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high and low point was 9820 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in September, which had more influence on SBR. As of September 29, the price was 12366 yuan/ton, up 4.71% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: In the peak season of Jinjiu, domestic tire enterprises started to work slightly, with full steel tires starting at around 60% and semi steel tires starting at around 65%, supporting SBR.

Future market forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is basically stable, medium and loose; The price of raw materials dropped compared with the previous period; The demand side was slightly supported, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber was consolidated in a narrow range in the short term; After the festival, if the cost rises or the demand rises, SBR may have an opportunity to rise.

In September, the domestic viscose staple fiber ran in a weak position, and the price center continued to fall, down 1000 yuan/ton. It is hard to find a good situation on the demand side. The air atmosphere is thick on the site, and the turnover of human cotton yarn is difficult to improve. It is transmitted to the general enthusiasm for raw material procurement and the demand for replenishment. In the last ten days of this month, the price of dissolved pulp in the outer disk was lowered, and the support for the cost of viscose staple fiber was loosened, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to a new level.

In September, with the price adjustment of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, declining, the trading of rayon yarn continued to be cold, and the price also showed a downward trend. Recently, the market still has the performance of selling goods at reduced prices. Under the condition of weak demand, it is difficult to stimulate the downstream to receive goods. The market trading atmosphere is light and difficult to change. Enterprises negotiate with each other to deliver goods. Most deals are based on rigid demand.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall in September. As of September 30, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13840 yuan/ton, 1020 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 6.86%.

The price trend of rayon yarn

Renmian Yarn Price Trend Chart

The price of human cotton yarn followed the decline. As of September 30, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 18166 yuan/ton, showing a situation of price without market. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month, the price fell by nearly 500 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.50%.

Price rise and fall chart of viscose staple fiber/rayon yarn industry chain

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall load is about 55% at present. The overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. In terms of demand, the start-up rate of downstream cotton yarn enterprises was basically stable. Renmian still sold goods in some areas, but the actual transaction situation has not improved. The downstream still maintains the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of finished products of Renmian yarn enterprises has risen by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the willingness to take delivery of goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

Recently, the price of raw material dissolving pulp and chemical materials has declined, and the cost support of viscose staple fiber has loosened compared with the early stage. In terms of demand, the weak market situation is difficult to ease, and enterprise operations still focus on priority shipping; The downward transfer of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn inventory was blocked, the market was pessimistic, and the possibility of downward adjustment remained after the festival. At present, the downstream expectation of “gold nine silver ten” is also relatively disappointed, and is pessimistic about the future market. The analysts of the business association predict that the viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position, and the possibility of continued price decline still exists.

The price of ethylene glycol rose slightly in September after the decline

According to the data from the business community, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4350 yuan/ton on September 30, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4125 yuan/ton, up 5.45%.

According to the external data of ethylene glycol, as of September 29, the spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 497-499 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from 489-491 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month; The spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia rose by 30 dollars/ton to 524-526 dollars/ton from 494-496 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene glycol fundamentals

From the supply side data, at present, the overall domestic ethylene glycol operation maintains a relatively low startup rate, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the domestic ethylene glycol supply is expected to recover at a low level.

On the demand side, the terminal orders were weak in the first half of the year, and the weaving operating rate was always below 85%. As the year gradually entered the peak season, the demand is expected to be repaired. The winter orders are expected to increase. At present, the gray fabric inventory is at a medium to high position. The polyester finished product inventory is expected to decline slightly in the short term. The polyester profit is low, and the bottle piece is better than the staple fiber than the filament.

The inventory data shows that the ethylene glycol inventory of the main port in East China is about 800000 tons, and it is estimated that the arrival volume of the main port in East China during the National Day will reach 240000 tons.

Future market forecast

In the early stage, the low price of ethylene glycol and the shrinking supply brought about a slight improvement in the price, but the improvement in supply and demand may be difficult to sustain. Although ethylene glycol is expected to go to the warehouse in the near future, the subsequent coal production may return rapidly in the stage when the raw material ethylene is surplus and the refining supporting ethylene glycol is still in production. In addition, the downstream demand is less than expected, and MEG may operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 14.54% compared with September 1, down 37.80% year on year in a three-month cycle, and down 52.81% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall trend of acrylic acid market rose, and the prices of some enterprises decreased at the end of the month. In the first half of the year, the market price of raw propylene gradually rose, the cost support gradually rose, some enterprises’ equipment maintenance reduced the supply, the downstream stock was orderly before the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price was strong, the cost support was firm after the festival, the industry started to decline, and the downstream operating rate was comprehensively improved, which supported the steady rise of acrylic acid price. In the late ten days, the market was stable and weak. The raw propylene was stable first and then rose. The cost pressure remained, but the demand was flat, the buying was average, and the early inventory was more digested. Near the end of the month, the downstream stock was gradually approaching the end, and the manufacturer’s quotation was stable and slightly changed.

On September 28, the benchmark price of upstream propylene in the business community was 7610.60 yuan/ton, up 7.18% from September 1 (7100.60 yuan/ton).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost support is still there, the holiday is approaching, the downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, and the market trading atmosphere is stable. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.