1. Industry news

 

Melamine

1.1 Goldman Sachs downgrades the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2023

 

Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth forecast for 2023 to 1.1% from 1.5%. The growth forecast for 2022 will remain unchanged at 0%. Goldman Sachs raised the federal funds rate forecast by 75 basis points in the past two weeks, and now expects the final interest rate to rise to 4% – 4.25% by the end of 2022.

 

Goldman Sachs also raised its unemployment rate forecast to reflect the slowdown in economic growth. It said that the unemployment rate would reach about 3.7% by the end of 2022, compared with the previous expectation of 3.6%. The prediction of the unemployment rate at the end of 2023 and 2024 will be raised from 3.8% and 4% to 4.1% and 4.2% respectively.

 

1.2 Fire in Russia’s largest nickel plant

 

The factory fire is the nickel electrolysis workshop of Kola Mining and Metallurgy Company (Kola MMC). The fire quickly spread from the ground to the upper layer of the huge industrial facilities in the suburb of the northern city of Monchegorsk.

 

According to the video released on the on-site social media, the fire lasted for a long time. The company is a subsidiary of Norilsk Nickel, the largest nickel producer in Russia. The company accounts for about 10% of the world’s nickel supply.

 

Five years ago, after the old nickel factory in Norilsk, Tamil Peninsula was closed, the factory in Baikame, Monchegorsk became the largest nickel factory in the world.

 

2. Message interpretation

 

From the macro perspective, according to the observation of the CME Federal Reserve, the probability of the US interest rate increase of 75bp in September rose to 82%, and the US dollar is still strong, which will still create some pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Although the uncertainty is small, we still need to pay attention to the decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the week.

 

On the domestic side, the central bank’s competent media predicted that with the implementation of a package of stable growth policies and their follow-up policies, the domestic economic rebound momentum will be consolidated and strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will eventually return to reflect the stable and good fundamentals of China’s economy.

 

Therefore, from the perspective of domestic economy, stable growth is still the main theme.

 

In terms of industry, the electrolysis plant of a subsidiary of Rusal Nickel suffered from fire. Russian nickel accounts for about 10% of the global nickel supply output. However, the fire occurred in the subsidiary’s electrolysis workshop, which is expected to have limited impact on the actual supply, and more emotional panic.

 

Therefore, the nickel price was extremely strong last Friday night. At present, the impact of the event should have ended.

 
3. Variety logic

 

EDTA

The production schedule of stainless steel recovered on a month on month basis in September, which led to an increase in demand for ferronickel. The price of ferronickel was firm, forming a certain support for the price of electrolytic nickel.

 

However, in the medium term, the release of a large amount of ferronickel capacity in Indonesia will lead to excessive supply of ferronickel, so ferronickel prices will return to a weak position in the medium term. As the price difference between electrolytic nickel and ferronickel is still at a high level, short-term support for electrolytic nickel prices, although there is, will not be too strong.

 

The impact of the time when the Russian nickel plant caught fire is limited, and the current price should have fully digested it.

 

In terms of demand, the nickel bean self melting technology of nickel sulfate is still economical, or will increase the demand for nickel beans.

 

In the medium and long term, the trend of nickel oversupply is obvious, and the price center will gradually fall back.

 

Operation suggestions:

Short sellers insist on holding, or they may create short orders when high.

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1、 Price trend

 

EDTA

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of isopropyl alcohol will rise this week. The average price of isopropyl alcohol in China was 6770 yuan/ton last Friday, and 7020 yuan/ton this Friday. The price increased by 3.69% within the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Figure: Comparison of price trends of acetone and isopropanol

 

The domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose this week. At present, the downstream demand of isopropanol in China is general, and the downstream order receiving is more cautious, focusing on rigid demand. The price of raw material acetone rose, the price of isopropanol rose along the trend, the low price moved closer to the high price, and the price gap between isopropanol products in the market was shortened. Up to now, Shandong isopropanol offers a wide range, ranging from 6500-7000 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations of Jiangsu isopropanol are about 6500-7500 yuan/ton. Most factories suspend external quotation. Internationally, on September 6, American isopropyl alcohol closed stably, while European isopropyl alcohol market closed higher.

 

In terms of raw material acetone, the price of acetone fell this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the average price of acetone last Friday was 5280 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 5340 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.14% within the week. This week, the domestic acetone market continued to rise. After returning from the festival, a few factories concentrated on raising the listing price, and the on-site supply side of the pressureless market increased. The business agency expects that the acetone market will maintain a firm operation next week, and the offer of major mainstream markets will not be adjusted much. It will maintain a firm transition next week, and continue to pay attention to the transaction on the market.

 

Melamine

In terms of raw propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose this week, with the average price of 7320.6 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7434.6 yuan/ton at the weekend, a weekly increase of 1.56%. It is expected that in the short term, the price of propylene market will fluctuate strongly, paying close attention to the changes in market supply and demand.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believes that, at present, the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have risen. Domestic isopropanol on-site cost support is acceptable. It is expected that the low end price of isopropanol will move up in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

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1、 Price trend

 

Melamine

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 9, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18000.00 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than the price of 17500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 17.56% lower than the same period last year.

 

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 9, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500.00 yuan/ton, 4.79% higher than the month beginning price of 24333.33 yuan/ton, and 4.08% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the prices quoted by enterprises were stable as a whole. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable as a whole, and the cost of raw materials rebounded slightly, which will further support the price of R22 in the future market.

 

EDTA

The domestic R134a fundamentals did not fluctuate much this week, and the prices quoted by enterprises were stable as a whole. Since September, the price of trichloroethylene has continued to rise, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been weak and stable as a whole, and the cost price of R134a has continued to rise. The cost and the unabated downstream demand will further support the future R134a price.

 

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid continues to be weak, and the price of trichloroethylene continues to rise. In general, the cost of R134a raw materials is on the increase.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that, supported by cost and demand, domestic R22 and R134a prices still have some room for improvement in the short term.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 9 was 94.97, unchanged from yesterday, 14.83% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 14.57% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

 

Melamine

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in the first ten days of September was stable, with a small increase. Among them, the market mainstream quotation on the first day was about 15471.43 yuan/ton, and the main quotation on the ninth day was 15542.86 yuan/ton, with a ten day increase of only 0.46%. Since September, the coal price has risen and the energy cost has increased. However, due to the normal production and sufficient inventory of the water treatment plants in the main production area, the downstream demand is stable, the overall quotation has not changed much and the transaction is stable.

 

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to rise in the first ten days of September. On the first day, the spot market price of domestic acrylonitrile was 8900 yuan/ton, and on the ninth day, it was 9550 yuan/ton, up 7.30% in the first ten days. The price of raw propylene rose, the downstream construction was basically stable, the market transaction was dominated by small orders, the petrochemical cost remained high, and the acrylonitrile manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price. Since September, the spot price and listing price of acrylonitrile manufacturers have risen slightly, and the business offer has risen with each passing day. Although the acrylonitrile market is on a good rise at present, the sharp decline of international crude oil prices has brought pressure on the domestic petrochemical industry, which needs more attention in the future.

 

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, as of September 9, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7833.33 yuan/ton, 3.52% higher than the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on September 1, 46.35% lower in a three-month cycle, and 46.35% lower than the same period last year. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has improved, some enterprises in the supply side have overhauled their devices, the market operation rate has declined, the supply has decreased, the downstream stock is in order before the festival on the demand side, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is moderate and upward. According to the analysis, short-term supply support still exists, and with the expectation that the downstream operating rate of “Jinjiu” will increase, it is expected that the acrylic market will run stronger in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the supply side information guidance.

EDTA

 

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic LNG market in the first ten days of September rose first, then fell, and then rebounded slightly: the domestic price was about 5892 yuan/ton on the first day, and the market price was 5930 yuan/ton on the ninth day, with a slight increase of 0.64% in the first ten days, and the center of gravity moved downward; Among them, the highest price in this ten day period is 6022 yuan/ton on the fifth day, and the lowest price is 5892 yuan/ton on the first day. The maximum amplitude of the market in this ten day period is 2.21%. Internationally, the “energy crisis” in Europe is getting worse and worse, and gas prices and electricity prices are soaring; At home, the market demand is poor. Under the influence of public health events, the market is strict in prevention and control, transportation is partially blocked, liquid prices are limited, and the downstream mentality of buying up rather than buying down is strengthened. As for the future market, it is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will fluctuate in the short term.

 

Future forecast: Since September, the cost of some raw materials for water treatment products has risen. In addition to the rising cost of coal and other energy, the market of some water treatment products has risen. The spot inventory of polyacrylamide market is sufficient, the manufacturer continues to operate normally, and the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to adjust in a stable, medium and small way. Attention should be paid to the impact of the recent sharp drop in crude oil, high coal prices and the “Jin Jiu” consumption season on the subsequent market of polyacrylamide.

 

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In September, the domestic general plastic market stopped falling and recovered. According to the general plastic index monitored by the business community, it was 851 as of September 9, up 6 points from 845 at the beginning of the month. The “golden nine” peak season was launched, and with the support of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the positive demand for downstream goods preparation improved. At the same time, the rising prices of ethylene and propylene as raw materials and the obvious positive support from the cost side are the main reasons for the rise.

 

EDTA

The trading atmosphere improved, and the polyethylene spot market rose as a whole

 

The polyethylene market showed an eye-catching performance. The price trend of the three major spot varieties has improved. Since September, the overall increase has been 50-400 yuan/ton. Among them, LDPE rose the most significantly, by 2.28%, and LLDPE by 0.81%. Although the international crude oil price has weakened due to shocks recently, the rise of ethylene and coal at the cost end has brought benefits to the market. In addition, in the context of the “golden nine” peak season, demand is released, and the operation rate of downstream agricultural film is increased. At the same time, with the arrival of the Mid Autumn Festival, market transactions are also increased. Petrochemical enterprises have raised their ex factory prices, and the operators have a better mentality, and the quotations of merchants have followed suit.

 

Gradual expansion of demand, narrow rise of PP market

 

Melamine

Recently, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has not changed much, and the overall load of the domestic industry remains at about 77%. However, the price of propylene at the feedstock end rose, boosting the strength of PP. With the gradual expansion of demand in the peak season and the increase of stocking activities, some downstream factories of the terminal enterprises have lifted their power and production limits, and the overall load has increased. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises and BOPP enterprises has rebounded significantly, and rigid goods need to be centrally stocked. Demand led to the decline of PP inventory. According to statistics, the total domestic PP inventory has dropped to about 730000 tons so far. Traders responded to the increase in orders and a stronger mentality, and the offer followed the rise of petrochemical plants.

 

In the future, according to the 730 moving average rule of the business community, since June 19, 2022, the 7-day moving average of the general plastic index has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the downward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to go down in the same direction. It is estimated in September 4, 2022 that the probability of the change of operation situation (i.e. the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) in the next 7 days is 31.79%. Analysts in the plastic industry of the business community believe that, with the end of periodic replenishment by downstream enterprises before the festival, market resource consumption is slow during the holiday period, and inventory pressure may increase, or it will bring some restraint to the rising market. The power of continued growth is limited, or it is mainly consolidation. More attention should be paid to the terminal demand.

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According to the data monitored by the business community, as of August 31, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10625.00 yuan / ton, and the DMF price in the month was operating in a narrow and weak range, from 12500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 110625 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price in August was weak, with an overall decrease of 5.56%, and the mainstream price range was 10500 yuan / ton.

 

EDTA

In the first ten days of August, as of August 8, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10600.00 yuan / ton. The price of DMF was mainly stable. Compared with the price at the beginning of the week, there was no obvious change. In the short term, the market price of DMF was mainly stable. As of August 8, the price of domestic DMF was stable. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. The logistics is smooth.

 

From the middle of August to August 17, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10800.00 yuan / ton. The price of DMF was mainly stable, with no obvious change compared with the price at the beginning of the week. In the short term, the market price of DMF was mainly stable. As of August 8, the price of domestic DMF was stable. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere is OK, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the logistics is smooth.

 

In late August, as of August 26, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10800.00 yuan / ton. The price of DMF was mainly stable, with no obvious change compared with the price at the beginning of the week. In the short term, the market price of DMF was mainly stable. As of August 26, the price of domestic DMF was stable. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000 yuan / ton, and the transaction atmosphere is OK. The negotiation atmosphere is positive. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

 

Melamine

Chemical commodity index: on August 31, the chemical index was 952 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 32.00% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 59.20% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

Analysts of business club DMF believe that it is expected that the stable operation of the DMF market in September will be dominated by stable operation. (if you want to know more about the latest market dynamics of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices.)

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Recent trend of urea price

 

EDTA

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2394.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. On September 4, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from 152.33 points (May 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.77% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

 

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea rose slightly this week.

 

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased slightly, from 5758.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5974.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.75%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.23%; The price of anthracite increased slightly. As of September 1, the price of anthracite increased by 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly, from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.30%.

 

Melamine

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is a small amount of stock, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The start-up rate of enterprises in the rubber sheet factory is low, and the purchase is mainly just needed; The compound fertilizer plant followed up on bargain hunting and improved its operation. The price of melamine dropped slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply, the power limitation in Sichuan has ended, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Internationally: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on September 9. The quotation is valid until September 19, and the shipping date is October 21. The intended purchase volume is about 1 million tons. The international urea price has made steady progress.

 

Urea price or small increase

 

In the first ten days of September, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. Urea analysts of business club believe that the prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas in the upstream of urea have increased slightly, and the cost of urea has increased. Downstream agricultural demand is general, and industry just needs to increase. The daily output of urea rebounded, spurred by the printing of labels. The recent urea or narrow range shock rise is the main one.

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The price of ethylene oxide rebounded from the bottom in the month. The ex factory price at the beginning of the month was 6550 yuan / ton. The lowest point in the month fell to 6300 yuan / ton. The price gradually increased in the middle and late ten days. The latest price is 6700 yuan / ton.

 

EDTA

From the perspective of cost, the demand for petrochemical products has dropped significantly. In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency, the demand for naphtha in Asia in 2022 will drop by 70000 barrels per day. The profit margin of naphtha ethylene cracking unit is not good. The manufacturer has reduced the operating rate to reduce losses. In August, the capacity was about 75% – 80%, down more than 5% from the operating rate in July. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia regained its lost ground at the end of the month, once as low as 820 US dollars per ton in the middle of the month. Based on the current external price, the theoretical loss of ethylene oxide is expected to be around 490 yuan per ton.

 

From the demand side, the high temperature weather continued this month, the infrastructure and real estate industry was depressed, and the domestic epidemic was sporadic. Under the influence of macroeconomic pressure, the demand for monomer remained weak. The temperature dropped in the last few days at the end of the month, and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream has heated up, which just needs to be followed up step by step.

 

Melamine

From the perspective of supply, ethylene oxide is still in a situation where it is difficult to obtain a single supply, and manufacturers mainly supply contracts. The 100000 ton EO unit of Gulei Petrochemical is scheduled to be overhauled for about 20 days in mid September. Maoming and Yangzi Petrochemical have not yet defined the start-up time.

 

The recent rise in the market is mainly caused by the tightening of the supply side. The supply side has a slight strength. In addition, the market negotiation focus has risen due to the proximity of the golden nine silver ten.

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According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was weak and stabilized in August. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3033.33 yuan / ton on August 1 and 2700.00 yuan / ton on August 31, down 10.99% in the month.

 

Melamine

Affected by the sharp drop in raw material costs in July, enterprises comprehensively reduced the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite in August, driving the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to drop significantly at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the market price of domestic industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was mostly around 2600-2750 yuan / ton.

 

In late August, the price of soda ash in the upstream was weak and stable as a whole, the price of sulfur rose slightly, and the price of raw materials rose slightly. In addition, the inventory of sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers was low as a whole, and some manufacturers increased their factory prices slightly, which led to a small rise in the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite at the end of the month.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The domestic soda ash price fell by 6.09% in August as a whole, and the overall weakness stabilized in the latter half of the year. The sulfur price rebounded from the bottom, rising by 25.54% in the month. The small rise in raw material cost will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

 

Future forecast

 

Analysts of business club believe that the raw material cost has picked up slightly, the inventory of manufacturers has remained low, the overall supply of sodium metabisulfite market is tight, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is expected to still have some room for recovery in September, supported by short-term demand. In general, the price of upstream raw materials is still at a low level, and the overall recovery space of sodium pyrosulfite market price in the future is limited.

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According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China increased slightly. On August 30, the average price of sulfur was 1176.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15% compared with the price of 1163.33 yuan / ton on August 22, and an increase of 26.98% compared with the beginning of the month.

 

EDTA

The sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and put into operation. The port cargo carriers are bullish and reluctant to sell. Due to the weak downstream market, the demand for sulfur in the domestic market is weak. The operators in the field have different attitudes. Most of the sulfur is mainly stable. Some manufacturers increase their prices according to their own shipping conditions. The overall downstream demand is general. The market purchase just needs to be followed up. The mood of waiting and waiting in the field is strong. As of the 30th, the price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was between 1190-1290 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 990-1150 yuan / ton.

 

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline, and the price fell sharply in the week. As of August 30, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 378 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.40% compared with the price of 282 yuan / ton on August 22. The domestic sulfuric acid market is weak and weak, the on-site operation is relatively high, the supply of goods is sufficient, the downstream operation is low, the demand is low, the on-site supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the enterprise’s shipment is blocked. In order to relieve the inventory pressure, the market trading center is shifted downward.

 

Melamine

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is in weak operation, and the demand for monoammonium continues to be weak. The fertilizer use in the downstream in autumn is slow, and the demand for raw materials is limited. The support in the field is insufficient. The diammonium market is light, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market is weak, the trading atmosphere on the site is cold, the manufacturer’s shipment is poor, the inventory pressure is large, and the market situation is weak. The overall demand of the ammonium phosphate Market is general, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field continues, and the ammonium phosphate market continues to operate in a weak position.

 

According to the sulfur analysts of business community, the downstream market of domestic sulfur is weak and weak, the demand support is limited, the pressure of manufacturers’ shipment is large, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market continues. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will wait and see, and the price will be temporarily stable. Specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

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