According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China increased slightly. On August 30, the average price of sulfur was 1176.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15% compared with the price of 1163.33 yuan / ton on August 22, and an increase of 26.98% compared with the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and put into operation. The port cargo carriers are bullish and reluctant to sell. Due to the weak downstream market, the demand for sulfur in the domestic market is weak. The operators in the field have different attitudes. Most of the sulfur is mainly stable. Some manufacturers increase their prices according to their own shipping conditions. The overall downstream demand is general. The market purchase just needs to be followed up. The mood of waiting and waiting in the field is strong. As of the 30th, the price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was between 1190-1290 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 990-1150 yuan / ton.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline, and the price fell sharply in the week. As of August 30, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 378 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.40% compared with the price of 282 yuan / ton on August 22. The domestic sulfuric acid market is weak and weak, the on-site operation is relatively high, the supply of goods is sufficient, the downstream operation is low, the demand is low, the on-site supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the enterprise’s shipment is blocked. In order to relieve the inventory pressure, the market trading center is shifted downward.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is in weak operation, and the demand for monoammonium continues to be weak. The fertilizer use in the downstream in autumn is slow, and the demand for raw materials is limited. The support in the field is insufficient. The diammonium market is light, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market is weak, the trading atmosphere on the site is cold, the manufacturer’s shipment is poor, the inventory pressure is large, and the market situation is weak. The overall demand of the ammonium phosphate Market is general, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field continues, and the ammonium phosphate market continues to operate in a weak position.

According to the sulfur analysts of business community, the downstream market of domestic sulfur is weak and weak, the demand support is limited, the pressure of manufacturers’ shipment is large, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market continues. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will wait and see, and the price will be temporarily stable. Specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped sharply this month. The sulfuric acid price dropped from 612.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 282.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 53.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 64.08% compared with the same period of last year.

On August 29, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 51.67, down 2.49 points from yesterday, down 72.53% from the highest point 188.07 (2022-04-13) in the cycle, and up 63.93% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support has improved and the downstream demand is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers has dropped sharply this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory is small.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly this month. The sulfur price rose from 926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1176.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 26.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 36.85% compared with the same period of last year. The upstream cost support improved, which had a positive impact on the sulfuric acid market. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, with the price falling from 10790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.09%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.21% over the same period of last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly, with the price falling from 18866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93% compared with the same period of last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened.

In the future, the market fluctuated slightly and fell

In the middle and early September, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly. Although the upstream sulfur price has increased slightly and the cost support has improved, the downstream market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate have decreased slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has decreased under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of business association believe that the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer a small fluctuation and decline under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7150.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 6825.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.55%. The current price increased by 19.47% over the previous year.

potassium nitrate

In August, the domestic potassium nitrate Market showed a downward trend. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium nitrate Market has declined for two consecutive months since 2022. This is mainly because the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price has continued to decline. The port inventory is accumulated and the delivery speed is slow. The downstream maintains just needed procurement, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the market of potassium nitrate is low. According to the statistics of the business agency, the recent quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate in China is 6500-6800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement conditions.

In August, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge was adjusted at a high level. The downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened. It was mainly based on purchasing. The port cargo source is impacted by the China Europe railway, and the price keeps falling. The potassium chloride analysts of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

The domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient, the price continues to fall, and the cost is generally supported. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate throughout the country and sorted and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

This week, DOTP prices fell first and then rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell first and then rose this week. As of August 26, the price of DOTP was 9262.50 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from the price of 9275 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. On August 25, the DOTP commodity index was 61.28, an increase of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.89% from the highest point of 100.28 points in the cycle (October 12, 2021), and an increase of 2.65% from the lowest point of 59.70 points on August 1, 2022. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2021 to now).

This week, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose. As of August 26, the price of isooctanol was 8300 yuan / ton, down 0.80% from 8366.67 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. High temperature power restriction, many isooctanol enterprises stop production and overhaul, the enterprise operating rate is low, and the isooctanol price is adjusted by shock. With the temperature falling, the power restriction is loose, and the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, the downstream demand is expected to warm up, and the driving force for the future market still exists.

PTA price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 26, the PTA price was 6295.42 yuan / ton, up 2.73% from 6128.33 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. Recently, PTA’s operating load is low and it is in the state of de stocking. This week, the downstream textile industry will enter the traditional peak season. The temperature will drop this week. It is expected that the power restriction policy will be relaxed and the terminal demand will be improved. PTA prices have rebounded and risen, and the cost of DOTP has increased, and the driving force of DOTP has increased.

PVC prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PVC fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 26, the price of PVC was 6490 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the price of 6325 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. The PVC market is good and the trading atmosphere is good. At present, the downstream of the PVC spot market is still dominated by rigid demand, the market is active in receiving orders, the market transaction atmosphere is improving, the PVC price is rising, the demand for DOTP is rising, and the driving force for future DOTP is increasing.

Future market expectation

According to the DOTP data analyst of the business agency, with the decrease of temperature, the loosening of power limitation policy, the expected start-up of the plasticizer industry chain, the price of isooctanol and PTA in the upstream has stopped falling and increased, and the cost of DOTP has increased; The downstream PVC market is warming, and the demand for DOTP is rising. In the future, the temperature drop is coming, the start-up of plasticizer industry chain enterprises is expected to rise, the demand for DOTP is warming up, and the driving force of DOTP is increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise slightly in the future.

This week, the spot tin market price (8.12-8.19) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 206210 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 199660 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 3.18% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price continues to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 33rd week of 2022 (August 15-august 19), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The commodities with the top three increases were metal silicon (12.90%), magnesium (4.73%) and cobalt (4.18%). There were 15 commodities with a month on month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silver (- 5.93%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.37%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 4.42%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.64%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price., Compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shangahi tin, 198500 yuan / ton, – 7000 yuan / ton, 2826

London tin, 24705 US dollars / ton, – 465 US dollars / ton, 4190

In terms of futures, this week’s futures market continued to maintain a weak and volatile operation. Lunxi fell by about 2% this week. Lunxi’s price was weak due to the market mentality dragged down by the continuous accumulation of stocks this week. The trend of Shanghai and tin is similar. The overall operation is weak, and the overall operation is below 20. The weekly position of the main contract is down as a whole, with a weekly drop of more than 2.5%.

The spot market continued to follow the overall downward trend of Shanghai tin this week. The main fluctuation range in the week was 198000-201500 yuan / ton. Basically, the tin market is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand. Recently, the domestic market as a whole is still dominated by destocking. There is a certain replenishment behavior in the lower reaches, but the overall downstream consumption has not improved significantly. And there is no expectation of improvement in future demand. Generally speaking, the market expects tin production to rise in August, and the main production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to be supported. It is expected that the rising power of the tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price will be under pressure in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4050 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3766.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.00%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.48%. On August 21, the calcium carbide commodity index was 98.69, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.50% from the highest point 212.23 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 77.85% from the lowest point 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream orchid charcoal is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 6570.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6325.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 3.73%, down 31.71% compared with the same period last year. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the calcium carbide market may fall in a narrow range

In late August, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market is slightly decreased, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In late August, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.15% compared with the price on last Wednesday (August 17), an increase of 4.13% compared with the price on July 22, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.44% in a three-month cycle.

The recent (August 17-august 22) melamine market rose. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has dropped slightly, the cost side is generally supported, the operating rate of melamine has declined, the market supply has decreased, the market mentality has been supported, and the price has risen. However, the actual demand of the downstream is general, and the purchase is just needed.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on August 22. According to the monitoring data of business association, the reference price of urea on August 22 was 2326.00, down 3.41% compared with August 1 (2408.00).

According to the melamine analysts of business association, the current cost support is limited, and the supply reduction leads to the price rise, but the demand side performance is not good. After the rise, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and most of them mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 8657.14 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 8392.86 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.05%. The price dropped by 3.67% compared with the same period last year.

styrene

This week, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene is mainly low, and the price will continue to fall this week. The main reason is that the cost is falling steadily, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market is constantly moving downward, and the decline is large, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene inventory is high, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction is poor, and the spot price of styrene is volatile and low.

In terms of raw materials and crude oil, the trend of crude oil is unstable and the support of cost is weak. This week, the price of pure benzene fell broadly. On August 12, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8200 yuan / ton (average price: 8042 yuan / ton), and on Friday (August 19), the price of pure benzene was 7500-7650 yuan / ton (average price: 7542 yuan / ton), with an average price of 6.22% lower than last week and an increase of 0.16% over the same period last year. In the early stage, the shutdown and maintenance devices were restarted in succession, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased; Imported cargoes are concentrated in the port. The inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons compared with last week, and the port is gradually accumulating. During the week, the price of pure benzene fell continuously.

On the downstream side, the rise and fall of the three major downstream of styrene were mixed this week. This week, the price of PS was weak. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 11616 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10850 yuan / ton, down 6.60% and 0.76% compared with the same period of the year. The support of PS cost is not good, some PS petrochemical manufacturers reduce, the overall transaction is weak, and the supply increase leads to the price weakening.

At the beginning of this week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11375 yuan / ton, and the price was stable. At present, the cash (including tax) of ordinary materials of large factories in East China is 10150-10400 yuan / ton, and that of small factories is 10150-10200 yuan / ton; The cash (tax included) of ordinary materials of South China manufacturers is 10400-10600 yuan / ton; The ordinary materials of Shandong manufacturers leave the factory at about 10000 yuan / ton including tax.

ABS market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12050 yuan / ton; at the end of the week, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 11950 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.80%. At present, it is in the off-season of home appliance procurement. The operation of terminal home appliances is poor, and the demand for ABS is greatly reduced; ABS prices continued to fall.

Recently, the price of styrene has bottomed out, and some manufacturers have reduced production. Generally speaking, if the raw material price rises next week, the styrene market will follow.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, domestic adipic acid was still weak this week (August 12-19), but the market showed signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. The market rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, and the price stabilized at the weekend. The weekly increase was 0.18%. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 8900-9300 yuan / ton. The cost is still negative, the crude oil is volatile, and the price of pure benzene continues to fall. On the supply and demand side, more factories released maintenance or load reduction news, and raised the listing price, which boosted market confidence.

From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate is low this week, and it is currently maintained at below 4.5%. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventories has eased slightly and the supply expectation has narrowed, which is also the main reason for adipic acid to stop falling and stabilize in the week. At present, the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The related upstream product pure benzene (- 5.6%) fell significantly, adipic acid remained weak, the trading focus was flat, and the manufacturer’s profit was inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 recovered after rebounding last week, but the terminal remained weak after a long-term decline.

Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene

Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream

The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price this week is deepened. According to the monitoring of business agency, the decline of pure benzene this week is 5.6%. Sinopec East China, the main plant of pure benzene, has continued to reduce the price this week, with a cumulative range of 450 yuan / ton, following the decrease of 500 yuan last week. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. Cyclohexanone also decreased slightly, at – 0.6%. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish, and the downstream factories mainly purchase on demand. According to the monitoring of business agency, after the rebound of PA66 downstream of adipic acid last week, the price stabilized this week, and the market still showed weak demand. The weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that there may be rebound demand for crude oil in the later stage, but pure benzene will continue to fall, forming a negative effect on adipic acid. In the later stage, pure benzene is expected to bottom out, which may boost the confidence of the downstream to a certain extent. On the supply side, at present, the operating rate of domestic units continues to decline, which has dropped to below 45%, and the market supply pressure is expected to ease. Cost and supply will bring rebound demand for adipic acid. However, terminal consumption is still weak, and downstream factories purchase on demand, which will also exert pressure on the rebound of adipic acid.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the market price of POM this week is generally horizontal, and the spot prices of various brands are mainly stable. As of August 12, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding grade sample enterprises of business community was about 18566.67 yuan / ton, up or down + 0.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been weak and consolidated recently this week. The market price of methanol in the upstream has not fluctuated much, the cost support is general, and the operating rate in the downstream has not been greatly improved. The demand for procurement is maintained, the market transaction is flat, and the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments. The market is weak and consolidated.

The upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost side supports the horizontal plate. In terms of industrial load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently, and Yankuang has the expectation of load increase in the near future. There is abundant supply in the field and strong competition. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM in the field is slow, the off-season market continues, and the main support point of spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing and mainly take small orders for goods, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the offer of the merchants is stable but drops secretly. The offer mainly follows the enterprise or follows the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is weak and stable this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost is generally supported. The load of POM industry is high, and it is expected to continue to rise, and the support of supply side is poor. On the news side, the ex factory price of polymerization enterprises has recently increased, but the consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the price of POM will be blocked due to the contradiction between supply and demand.