It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market fell in shock this month: the price of urea fell from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.92%. A year-on-year drop of 18.64%.

On October 30, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In October, the price of urea fell slightly, with the highest weekly drop of 2.15%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose and fell each other this month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products fell sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, from 68342.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5540.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 18.93%, 24.04% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up by 70 yuan/ton. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea rose slightly in the future

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of November. The upstream anthracite and natural gas prices were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. In the future, urea may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP market rose strongly in October and then remained stable at a high level. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 26,566 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 28,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.4%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 28th, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 27500-28500 yuan/ton, and the high-end quotation reached 30000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of October, some factories in the NMP market were short of supply and stopped reporting. It was discussed on a single basis. At the same time, the road transportation in some regions was blocked, and the arrival of NMP raw materials was limited. As a result, the NMP in some regions was insufficient to start work, the supply was tightened, the NMP price and goods were tight, and the downstream inquiry was active. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the demand increased, and the market continued to rise until about the middle of October. From the end of October, the market maintained a stable trend, and the factories were willing to support prices, In the downstream, there is a resistance to high prices. The demand is relatively stable, and the market continues to push up with insufficient momentum.

As of October 28, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 27

Eastern China, 26000-27000 yuan/ton

Central China, 26000-27500 yuan/ton

Southwest China, 26500-27500 yuan/ton

In October, the domestic BDO market was mainly reorganized. After the National Day holiday, the rising trend in September continued. The auction prices of some manufacturers remained high. However, the sluggish demand restricts the growth of BDO market. Although the manufacturer has bid for 14700 yuan/ton for many times, it is hard to change the downtrend of downstream, and BDO market is frozen.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from Business Agency believe that at present, the NMP price has risen to a high level, and the downstream demand is average. At the same time, the price of raw materials tends to decline. It is expected that the market will have a narrow downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose first and then fell this month, and the overall price fell. On October 1, the average price of isopropyl alcohol was 7430 yuan/ton, and on October 31, the average price was 7120 yuan/ton. The price decreased within the month by 4.17%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of acetone and isopropanol prices from April to June

In this month, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose first and then fell, and the overall price fell. The market of isopropanol rose in the first ten days of this month due to the rising price of raw material acetone. In the middle of the year, the overall market showed a situation of mutual rise and fall, and the price was adjusted to stabilize. In the last ten days, the propylene process enterprises started to improve, the supply side continued to increase, and the market price began to decline. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 6900-7100 yuan/ton; Most quotations in Jiangsu isopropanol market are about 7100-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, acetone rose first and then fell this month, with an overall increase. On October 1, the average price of acetone was 5580 yuan/ton, and on October 31, the average price was 5840 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 4.66%. On the 26th, Sinopec’s order price in East China was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, with the implementation of 6000-6100 yuan/ton. The factory was reduced in a centralized manner, and the intention of shippers to make profits increased. In particular, the offer in East China fell significantly, with the negotiated price at 5750-5800 yuan/ton. Other mainstream regions also experienced a small decline. The end factory was slow to follow up, and inquiries were mainly limited to actual orders. The focus was on the market transactions in the afternoon.

In terms of raw propylene, the propylene market price fell this month. On October 1, the average price of propylene was 7620.6 yuan/ton, and on October 31, it was 7136.6 yuan/ton. During the month, the price fell by 6.35%. The atmosphere of market trading and investment is general, and the factory sells at a profit to stimulate the delivery of goods. At present, propylene market has loose supply and weak demand. It is expected that the short-term market of propylene will be mainly weak and downward. Considering the continuous poor profitability of the propylene industry, it is expected that there will be limited falling space.

3、 Future market forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believed that the cost support of domestic isopropanol field was average this month. Enterprises started to increase supply, market confidence was insufficient, and prices fell. It is expected that the isopropanol market may continue to decline in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

The price of o-xylene rose to a new high in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of October 28, the price of ortho xylene was 9600 yuan/ton, up 6.67% from the price of 9000 yuan/ton on October 1; The price of ortho benzene increased by 52.38% to 6300 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year. In October, the price of ortho benzene rose to a new high in the year, and the market of ortho benzene remained strong. The rise of ortho xylene in the middle and late days was weak, and the price of ortho benzene remained stable.

Raw material mixed xylene market rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price rose first and then fell in October. The mixed xylene price rose sharply in the first ten days of October, and fell back in the middle and late ten days of October. As of October 28, the price of mixed xylene was 8230 yuan/ton, down 2.02% from 8400 yuan/ton on October 10; The price of mixed xylene increased by 200 yuan/ton, or 2.49%, from 8030 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the crude oil price rising first and then falling, the mixed xylene price rose first and then fell. The future crude oil market continued the long short game. The crude oil trend was volatile. The mixed xylene lacked good support, and the mixed xylene price was weak. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the rising support of o-xylene weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride price rises and falls

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride made of o-phthalic acid has rebounded. As of October 28, the quotation of phthalic anhydride made of o-phthalic acid was 9750 yuan/ton, down 8.34% from the new high of 10637.50 yuan/ton on October 14 in the year; It was down 5.34% from 10300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the restart of phthalic anhydride unit, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped rapidly after hitting a new high. The demand for downstream plasticizers was weak. The future market was negative for phthalic anhydride. The demand for ortho benzene declined, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene increased.

Future outlook

The analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believe that, around the National Day in October, the prices of ortho xylene products in the industrial chain have risen continuously, and the prices of ortho xylene and phthalic anhydride have both hit new highs in the year, due to the impact of equipment maintenance and stock replenishment by enterprises in the industrial chain. With the end of the replenishment after the festival and the reopening of equipment, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride have dropped successively in the middle and late ten days, and the price of ortho xylene has been unable to rise and stabilized. In the future, the upstream and downstream of the ortho benzene industry chain will fall together, the cost of the weak demand for ortho benzene will fall, and the rising support for ortho benzene will be unable to increase the downward pressure. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will decline weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1496 yuan/ton on October 17, and 1500 yuan/ton on October 21. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 0.22% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium sulfate market fluctuated slightly this week, with the market trading and investment being flat, mainly focusing on consolidation and shock operation. At present, there is no good news. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the wait-and-see mood increases. The urea price decreased slightly this week, which was negative for ammonium sulfate market. Coking enterprises in some areas have limited production, the supply of ammonium sulfate has decreased, and the manufacturers sell it at a high price. The internal ammonium sulfate was adjusted slightly with little fluctuation. As of October 21, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong was about 1490 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei was about 1400 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1500-1580 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market demand was flat this week, with weak stable operation as the main factor. The wait-and-see mood was strong, waiting for the introduction of the winter reserve policy. Urea prices fell this week, agricultural demand was small and industrial demand was weak. The start-up of compound fertilizer plants declined and the demand for urea weakened. The production of urea in Shanxi is limited to 150000 tons per day. In the future, urea fell slightly in shock.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the ammonium sulfate market has been slightly shaken in the near future, the downstream demand is flat, and manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously. Under the current situation that the market is not favorable, ammonium sulfate is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

This week (10.14-10.21), the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell. The overall market declined slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 21, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2990 yuan/ton, 1.56% lower than the 3037 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the weekly high was 3090 yuan/ton.

The decline of dichloromethane market was mainly affected by three aspects: first, the domestic methane chloride started at a high level, and the supply of dichloromethane was generally loose; Secondly, the price of raw material methanol fell slightly, and the cost support was weakened; Finally, the downstream demand side is currently flat, and the procurement of dichloromethane is mainly based on small orders on demand.

The commencement of domestic methane chloride remained at a high level, with little overall change. The supply of dichloromethane was mainly loose.

This week (10.14-10.21), the spot market of methanol continued to be weak, and the cost support of dichloromethane weakened. According to the business community, as of October 21, the spot price of methanol was 2856 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 2862 yuan/ton last Friday, and the peak in the cycle was 2898 yuan/ton.

After the National Day holiday, the downstream demand was flat, and the refrigerant started to operate at a low level; The start of thinner, cleaning and pharmaceutical industries was relatively stable, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the cost is slightly weak. In addition, the downstream stock is not active, so it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow before the festival.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic carbon black price was 11750 yuan/ton on October 21. At present, the carbon black market price is relatively strong, and it is temporarily stabilized, resulting in deadlock in trading and investment.

Cost: The tight supply of raw coal tar market has intensified, and the price continues to be high and shows an upward trend. In the short term, the tight price of coal tar is hard to change, the profitability of the coal tar deep processing industry has declined, and the cost pressure of carbon black is still in place. Supply and demand: Affected by the high level of raw coal tar, the carbon black market is losing more and more money. The carbon black production enterprises are not profitable. Under the high cost, the carbon black enterprises are not enthusiastic to start construction. In addition, the carbon black enterprises in some regions are limited to start construction, so the overall construction is likely to decline.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, there is no obvious improvement at present. Duowei holds the purchase on demand, and new orders are limited. The operating rate of the domestic tire industry is relatively low, and there is a certain resistance to high carbon black. Under the dual pressure of the cost side and the domestic demand side, the order demand of some enterprises has increased, but the profit has declined year-on-year. The actual demand for production has decreased. Affected by this, the principle of selecting low carbon black raw materials and purchasing according to needs is still implemented, and the market transaction is slightly cold.

To sum up, at present, the carbon black market price cost is driving the high level operation, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market, which is likely to rise. It is expected that the carbon black market price will operate at a high level, and in the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the enterprise commencement and downstream market dynamics.

1、 Price trend

The price of mixed xylene fell this week, according to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives. On October 14, the price was 8400 yuan/ton; On Friday (October 21), the price was 8260 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from last week and up 18% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the weak demand side, the mixed xylene was weak in the week. In terms of downstream chemical products, the market for terminal gasoline continued to decline, the actual transactions on the market were limited, and the number of operators was increasing on the sidelines.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market rose slightly this week. On Thursday (October 20), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $991.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $8.54/ton, or 0.86%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell into a deadlock this week. Under the expectation of multi country interest rate increase, economic recession worries continue to depress the crude oil market; However, supported by the sharp decline of US crude oil inventory and OPEC+production reduction in the week, oil prices rose and fell. As of October 21, Brent price this week rose by 1.87 dollars/barrel, or 2.04%, compared with last week; WTI fell 0.56 USD/barrel, down 0.65%.

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and up 27.4% from the same period last year.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China was stable this week. On October 14, the price was 9600 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and 39.13% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded after falling this week. On October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 8303 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week and 5.19% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market continued the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market’s worries about economic recession continue to weigh on the crude oil market. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream demand performance is poor, crude oil trend is volatile, mixed xylene lacks positive support, and short-term price is weak. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 21, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16225.00 yuan/ton, which was stronger than that of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is not large. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation focus is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with no significant change in price. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants were active in shipping and taking orders for profits. The price of PMMA was stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is weak, and the supply side is normal, The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16700 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On October 20, the rubber and plastic index was 691 points, down 6 points from yesterday, down 34.81% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 30.87% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the PMMA analyst of the business community, the mainstream price of PMMA is about 16100 yuan/ton, which will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 16 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 0.30% from 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 16, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day holiday, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily average output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, and the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, Crude oil prices fell for three days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 12, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore fell by 2.698 million barrels to a four week low of 20.201 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory rose 309000 barrels to a three week high of 8.139 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased 375000 barrels to a seven week high of 16.577 million barrels.

Future market forecast: the international crude oil market has declined in the near future, the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, and the ship fuel cost is under overall pressure. After the festival, the downstream of the ship fuel market is stocked, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.