The price of o-xylene stabilized this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of November 18, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of ortho xylene on November 11 last weekend. The bad news of the o-xylene industry chain has weakened, and the domestic market for o-xylene has stabilized.

Raw material mixed xylene market rose sharply this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price rose in shock this week. As of November 18, the price of mixed xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from 8020 yuan/ton on November 11. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the cost of ortho xylene rose, and the downward pressure of ortho xylene weakened and the upward momentum increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride held steady this week

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of the business community that the domestic phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France was stable this week. As of November 18, the phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France was 9150 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 9150 yuan/ton on November 11. This week, the price of orthophthalic anhydride stopped falling and became stable, downstream demand remained stable, and the downward pressure on orthoxylene weakened.

Future outlook

The analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believed that there were many negative effects on the ortho xylene industry chain in the early stage, and the ortho xylene price fell continuously. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable, and the bad news of ortho xylene market weakened. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will become stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak. On November 10, the rare earth index was 629 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 37.54% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 132.10% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of October 10, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 790000 yuan/ton, down 5.39% from the middle of October; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 650000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 5.45%; The price of neodymium oxide was 720000 yuan/ton, down 6.49%; The price of neodymium metal was 905,000 yuan/ton, down 3.75%; The price of praseodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.95%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 675000 yuan/ton, down 10.60%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises has been overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The purchase is poor. The market of light rare earths has declined. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited. At present, there is no specific notice on the release date. The production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the shipment is difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. Recently, the inventory of downstream businesses still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty of dealers in shipping, and the decline of rare earth market.

The price of dysprosium series heavy rare earth in China fell back. As of October 10, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.275 million yuan/ton, down 2.57% from the middle of October; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.265 million yuan/ton, down 2.37%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.95 million yuan/ton, down 2.16%; The price trend of domestic terbium series is declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.25 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth mainly declined. The raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The production enterprises gradually started to work. The supply of heavy rare earth increased. The dealers with goods were eager to ship, and the transaction price fell. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price decline of heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The automobile production and sales volume rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the domestic demand for rare earths was still supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, limited downstream procurement, and poor orders from magnetic material manufacturers, downstream businesses mainly digest inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market will continue to decline in the short term. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of potential for recovery.

From November 4, 2022 to November 11, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China will be lowered. Last weekend, the price was 78750 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 77750 yuan/ton, down 1.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot market has been on the up trend in the near future around the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after the middle of March, and entered a downward channel in the middle of April. The decline trend slowed down at the end of April. The trend was stable in May. The price entered an upward channel in June. After a short period of stability in July, it fell again. After August, the market was gradually stable, flat for seven consecutive weeks, and the price began to decline at the end of October.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD/t)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

European small metal antimony., 11700., 10900., – 800

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe remained stable for the time being. As of November 11, the price was 10,900 US dollars/ton, with a weekly drop of 800 US dollars/ton. The market transaction was cold and the negotiation was limited.

Antimony ingot prices continued to decline this week, with European prices falling to US $10900/t for the first time, and dropping by US $800/t weekly. This week, the price of antimony ingots dropped continuously, with a cumulative decrease of 1000 yuan/ton. This round of decline occurred after the antimony ingot market temporarily stabilized for seven consecutive weeks, and broke the weak balance of the market at the end of October. The price of antimony ingot fell continuously due to the performance of antimony oxide in the downstream. At present, the market performance of downstream flame retardants is poor, the application of antimony oxide is limited, and the price continues to decline under the lack of demand support. The antimony oxide manufacturers suspend the purchase of antimony ingots. In terms of supply and demand, the overall change in the near future is not big. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, downstream enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement. In terms of supply, the output in October has not changed much since the domestic large factories resumed production in September. As the external antimony ingot price continues to decline slightly, market participants generally believe that the possibility of antimony ingot price declining is growing. The business community expects that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market will remain stable and weak under the condition that the downstream demand will not improve in the near future.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 65500., 65000., – 500

99.8% antimony trioxide, 67500., 67000., – 500

The domestic antimony oxide market price was weak this week, the sales of antimony oxide remained weak, and the downstream market was short of gas. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future, and the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 49800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 49200 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 1.2%, down 28.4% year on year. On November 13, the bromine commodity index was 172.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.59% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27), and 192.99% higher than the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price was weak and consolidated, the overall market trading was average, and the bromine price continued to decline. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been lack of support, and the supply and demand game, bromine enterprises’ shipment is not smooth. However, the market transactions are still dominated by just in need procurement. The industry is pessimistic, and the downstream takes the opportunity to lower prices.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1303.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1363.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.6%, down 35.18% year on year. At present, the sulfur market is on the sidelines, the production of the manufacturer is stable, the downstream sulfuric acid market is organized and operated, the support for sulfur is limited, the progress of winter fertilizer storage is slow, the demand for sulfur is weak, the enterprise ships on demand, and the sulfur market is organized and operated later.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides play a game. The spot supply of bromine is sufficient, and there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (November 4 to November 11). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend, and 17250 yuan/ton this weekend, down 0.29%.

Manganese ore: With the appearance of alloy plant profits, the manganese ore end also stopped falling and stabilized, and the transactions and inquiries have improved. The semi carbonate in Tianjin Port is about 34 yuan/ton, while Gabon is about 39-39.2 yuan/ton. However, it is difficult to raise the price. The price of Australia is around 43-43.5 yuan/ton, and that of Australia is 38.5-39 yuan/ton. As the price of the external market stopped falling and stabilized, the port merchants were also unwilling to lower their prices, and the overall trend was slightly better. However, because the profits of the manufacturers were still average, the purchasing sentiment for high priced manganese ore was general, and it was still difficult for manganese ore prices to rise.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, and fell slightly in November.

The electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week. After a month long game period, the market finally broke the ice this week, and the price of electrolytic manganese fell slightly. At present, the mainstream price in China is 15400-15700 yuan/ton. The overall market negotiation is a little cold and the market sentiment is weak. The game psychology of the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

In terms of manganese and silicon: this week, due to the price of 7450 yuan/ton determined by Hegang Group, although it dropped by 100 yuan/ton month on month, it was slightly better than the market expectation. The retail price was firm to more than 7000 yuan/ton, while the futures market was also strong. With an active market inquiry and procurement atmosphere, the silicon and manganese spot market was stable and good this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7100 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 7066 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from Monday.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 11, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6850.00 yuan/ton, which was mainly stable compared with the same period last week. The overall DMF market price did not change much. At present, the overall market operation rate is stable, the overall procurement atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the price has a small upward trend.

The domestic DMF price has a stable trend. At present, the mainstream price range is 6900.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is general, the operating rate is stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Chemical commodity index: On November 10, the chemical index was 944 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 32.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.86% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The DMF analyst from the business agency believes that the DMF market is stable and strong in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference is 8700 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than the price on October 30 (8500 yuan/ton), or 2.35% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.04), the domestic butanone market overall showed a slight upward trend. The driving force supporting the small upward trend of domestic butanone market mainly comes from the following two aspects:

On the one hand, in terms of cost, the post C4 market of raw material ether has been running steadily upward since the middle of October, and the cost side has gradually strengthened its support for butanone. The quotations of butanone manufacturers are mostly stable or slightly increased.

Second, in terms of supply, in October, the overall performance of butanone export was good. In November, the domestic spot supply was controllable, and the overall supply side pressure was small, supporting the market to rise slightly.

As of November 4, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price increase is about 200-400 yuan/ton.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, after the butanone market rose slightly, the trading volume was average, the overall performance of the demand side was poor, and the trading atmosphere in the market was light. The butanone data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the upward momentum of the butanone market continued to be limited, and the market mostly focused on the range consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market is 17880 yuan/ton, which is 40 yuan/ton higher than the reference price of October 30, 2022 (17760 yuan/ton), or 0.68% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that last week, the market situation of silicone DMC steadily recovered. Shandong large factories raised the price of silicone DMC by 500 yuan/ton accumulatively last week. Although the prices of large factories did not increase widely, they also promoted the overall atmosphere of the market. Entering this week (10.31-11.04), at the beginning of the week, the leading large factories slightly raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC to around 18000-18200 yuan/ton. Most of the other monomer plants offer stable and firm prices. At present, as of November 4, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 17800-18200 yuan/ton. The main driving factors supporting the recent upward movement of the silicone DMC market are from the following two aspects:

1、 In terms of supply, at present, most of the equipment in the monomer factory has started to undergo reduced maintenance, and the starting load of the monomer factory has dropped to about 6 floors. The monomer factory has actively reduced the load to cope with the current weak market situation. In addition, the transportation in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been blocked, and the spot circulation of silicone DMC has decreased, mainly supporting the silicone DMC manufacturers to firm their quotations.

2、 In terms of cost, in this week, although the price of raw metal silicon declined slightly, it still remained at a high level as a whole. Therefore, the cost still gave support to the DMC market.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the domestic metal silicon market declined slightly in November. On November 4, the reference price of metal silicon was 21190 yuan/ton, down 1.3% compared with November 1 (21470 yuan/ton).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the support given to organosilicon DMC by downstream demand is still insufficient. In the early stage, downstream users bought on bargain, and some organosilicon DMC stocks on the market were digested, but the market is still in a wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm for stocking has not been fully opened. Therefore, the silicone DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market tends to adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (October 28 to November 4). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend and 17300 yuan/ton this weekend, which was flat.

Manganese ore: The overall transaction was average. The spot side was driven by the good alloy futures. The merchants tried to raise the offer. However, the manufacturers were in a general mood to receive goods due to poor profits. In terms of external markets, South32 offered manganese ore to China in December, with high quality Australian pieces of 4.7 dollars per ton (down 0.1 dollars per ton) and South African semi carbonate of 3.98 dollars per ton (down 0.04 dollars per ton). The overall decline was smaller than expected, which gave some support to the spot price. In terms of spot goods, the transaction price of Tianjin Port Australia block was 43.5-44 yuan/ton, that of semi carbonic acid was 33.5-34 yuan/ton, and that of Gabon was about 38.5 yuan/ton. Low price resources decreased. The overall inventory of the port remains high, but if the alloy price goes up, the quotation of manganese ore will also be slightly adjusted.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the end of August, the price has continued to stabilize temporarily, and since the end of September, the price has risen slightly.

The market price of electrolytic manganese is temporarily stable this week, with the mainstream price of 15500-15700 yuan/ton. At the end of October, the EMM Innovation Working Committee of China Mining Association proposed to stop the production of EMM completely in January 2023, and to stop the production of EMM by 50% from February to December 2023. Six suggestions were adopted at the meeting. The impact of this proposal on the market remains to be seen. At present, the market enterprises have a strong mentality of price fixing, and it is difficult to find low price goods on the market. The overall market is bullish. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market, which lacks the support of actual demand, will maintain a temporary stable operation in the future. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction will benefit the market to a certain extent, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese silicon: After the sharp drop on Monday, the market performance improved significantly on Wednesday, led by the black series. The second half of the week saw a very encouraging rise. The confidence in the industry was significantly boosted. Except for the firm quotations of most enterprises, some companies did not offer to the outside world for the time being, and showed a wait-and-see trend. In November, the steel bidding was launched, and the mining volume of Hegang Group was raised on a month on month basis, which improved the market confidence. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 6950-7000 yuan/ton on November 4, with the average market price of 6983 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market continued to fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the drop in this month was 2.09%, 7.53% lower than the peak in mid October. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week (October 31 to November 4). Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream of adipic acid fell heavily, with the decline of 4.49% for pure benzene and 6.61% for cyclohexane. While the cost side is negative, it relieves the cost pressure of adipic acid production. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 4.49%. On the one hand, the guiding price of the main refinery was lowered by 250 yuan/ton, which dampened the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, the inventory pressure of styrene and pure benzene manufacturers is high this week, and the increase in supply puts pressure on the market. The superposition of ports has led to a sharp increase in domestic supply. On the other hand, affected by road restrictions, the poor flow of goods further limits the market circulation and circulation speed. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6900-7400 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.

Supply side: Some adipic acid plants slightly increased the negative operating rate

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of this month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the collection price of Shandong Dachang was significantly reduced by 500 yuan/ton, which brought pressure to the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid is approaching 60% this week. Xinjiang Tianli plant resumed operation, in addition, Taihua plant was lifted; However, at the same time, one set of Shenma equipment entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month, while the rest of the equipment did not change much, and the overall supply rebounded slightly. The enterprise continues to accumulate the stock.

Demand side: weak downstream demand to maintain rigid demand

Adipic acid downstream performance is tepid, the demand side is weak, the market buying is light, and the early inventory is mainly digested. Downstream factories are cautious in taking goods, and sporadic just need to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 0 this week. Since August, PA66 has continued to rise, mainly due to the manufacturer’s equipment maintenance and the shortage of market supply. The market has stopped rising since late October. The cost and sales pressure of polymerization plants increased, and the market callback pressure increased. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, the later period of crude oil shock and rise may bring benefits to pure benzene. However, considering that the supply pressure of pure benzene is still large, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve too much in the later period, and it is undoubtedly difficult to boost the cost of adipic acid. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.