1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 10th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4250 yuan/ton. DMF prices continued to rise this week, and prices remained stable compared to the same period last week, with little fluctuation.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable and are approaching the end of the year. Downstream demand for DMF is not high, and companies have gradually stopped production and production, with limited preparation for holidays.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol production rate is around 86%, with an increase in supply and average demand. Inventory shipments are smooth. As of now, the production profit of coal to methanol in Northwest China is around 30 yuan/ton, and the operating load of the domestic methanol market has increased.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that currently DMF inventory is being shipped normally, prices are running steadily with minimal fluctuations, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 528 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.80%. On December 31st, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 78.36, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 58.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 24.09% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been weakly declining this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the sales pressure of spot soda ash factories is high. Downstream glass prices are relatively strong and consolidating, but mainly consuming inventory, the demand for soda ash is not high, and the market purchase is limited. Market trading is poor, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards.

As of December 31, 2024, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30-50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1550-1630 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on December 31 was 79.32, a decrease of 0.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.41% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 4.03% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been stable and slightly weak in the near future. The downstream glass market price is stable, but the support for soda ash is limited. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity on the supply side is high, and the inventory of spot alkali plants is sufficient. The sales pressure of enterprises is high, and there is a lack of good market conditions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall TDI market in East China rose in December, with a step-by-step increase. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12650 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the TDI price was 12850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% during the month and a decrease of 23.51% year-on-year.

In December, the TDI market in East China was significantly affected by the supply side. Since the beginning of the month, mainstream factories have been undergoing maintenance and temporary shutdowns, resulting in a temporary shortage of spot goods and slow filling of TDI sources, leading to a rise in prices. Mainstream factories have a strong willingness to raise prices. In mid December, with the resumption of equipment operation and an increase in production load, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods became apparent, resulting in a slight decline in TDI prices. Subsequently, the market stabilized and operated until the end of the month.

Supply side: Shanghai Kesi Chuang restarted on December 11th, Yantai Wanhua stopped on December 20th, and restarted on December 26th. The TDI units of Xinjiang Juli and Fujian Wanhua are operating unstably and will start operating at medium to high loads at the end of the month.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated and rose. As of December 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6052 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33% from the price of 5800 yuan/ton on December 1st. The overall trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose within the month, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The demand for gasoline in Shandong has improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises has also rebounded to some extent. The overall ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have risen, and the atmosphere in the spot market is good.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that some factories experienced a decline in settlement in December, which led to an unstable focus of the TDI market, mediocre downstream demand performance, mainly completed contract customers, and a lack of new orders. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 11700 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 11800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.85%.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have risen this month, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, and industry insiders are mostly optimistic, focusing on the market transaction situation.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which has seen an increase in inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal from low to medium index sources is accelerating. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry is focusing on the sales situation.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is experiencing accelerated sales, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7300 yuan/ton. Compared with December 15 (reference price of n-butanol was 7400 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35%.

This week (12.15-12.20), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China showed a fluctuating downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market was weakly stable and operating. In the middle of the week, the shipment prices of n-butanol in some areas of Shandong Province were narrowly reduced by 100 yuan/ton, with a reference for low prices around 9250-9300 yuan/ton. As the weekend approached, the overall shipment of n-butanol in the market improved, and some factories raised the n-butanol prices narrowly by 50 yuan/ton. As of December 20th, the reference market price for n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is around 7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the supply of n-butanol is stable, with a slight release of downstream demand and expectations of improvement on the demand side. The transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ December 20th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7600 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7450-7500 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with downstream demand for purchasing and small-scale stocking. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate steadily, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3678.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3678.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 3.63%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the shortage of supply combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the supply of fluorite has decreased. This week, the fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In December, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry is experiencing a decline in production, coupled with low prices of hydrofluoric acid, overall demand is not expected to improve. Overall, the domestic fluorite market may experience a slight decline.

This week, the epoxy propane market has been operating weakly and steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8470 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.67% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: From November to December at the end of the year, maintenance will be concentrated in the East China region. The 400000 tons/year HPPO unit in the Lianyungang region will be shut down for maintenance on November 11th, with an estimated 45 days. The 270000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Zhejiang Petrochemical may also be scheduled for maintenance in mid November, with only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Shenghong operating normally. Affected by it, prices in East China have fallen slightly.

Raw material side: The price of propylene on the raw material side fluctuated and fell. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6828.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand side is relatively cold, with insufficient follow-up on procurement, cold actual market transactions, and mainly focused on first-time purchases, adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that due to the impact of increased supply from various companies and weak downstream demand, it is advisable to wait and see. Insufficient follow-up on essential procurement is expected to lead to short-term fluctuations and consolidation in the epoxy propane market, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of epichlorohydrin has increased this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine at the raw material end are still supported. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6870.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the cost side price support is still acceptable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, cautious procurement of raw materials, and tight market supply. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight rise in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to 29th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8728 yuan/ton to 8642 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.98% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.24%. Although there have been device replacements, the restart of temporary faulty devices and the operation of some devices with increased load have led to an increase in industry capacity utilization and weakened supply side support. Downstream industry contracts are following up, spot trading is light, holders are cautious, and the market focus is stable with a downward trend.

On the supply side, the utilization rate of industry capacity has significantly improved, the market supply has increased, and the expected increase in market supply of goods has weakened the support on the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The power restrictions in Inner Mongolia have eased, and the market supply capacity has increased. With the rise in prices in the early stage, trade inversion has led to a trading environment list. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. As of 10:00 am on November 29th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2548 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have been consolidating at a high level, and the cost of BDO has been affected by favorable factors.

On the demand side, most downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBAT, and polyurethane have reduced production loads due to equipment load reduction or maintenance, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods in the market will increase, while the pace of downstream demand will follow suit. Spot trading volume will be light, and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market is weak and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in November. From November 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5575 yuan/ton to 5450 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.24% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.71%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market remained stable, with major factories accompanying shipments and a decent trading atmosphere. Shipments were average, and downstream shipments were mainly accompanied by fixed procurement. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some previously shut down maintenance facilities resuming production and the operating load gradually increasing, resulting in an increase in spot supply; The prices of raw corn production areas are fluctuating, but the demand side support is flat, with accompanying replenishment being the main trend, and the ethanol market price is weak and stagnant. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a narrow decline due to the impact of snowfall. Logistics in some areas were hindered, shipments were not smooth, and there was a significant increase in spot supply, resulting in significant inventory pressure for enterprises.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices are running weakly, grain source toxins are unstable, downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, and there are only a few transactions at ports with low transaction prices.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

Demand side, demand side Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; There is not much change in the production of ethyl acetate. The impact of short-term ethanol demand is mostly stable.

The future forecast shows that there is significant inventory pressure on enterprises and limited support from the demand side. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still room for a short-term downturn in the domestic ethanol market.