1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 9825 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the price was 10125 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.05% during the month and a decrease of 9.34% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In August, the aniline market first rose and then fluctuated and fell back, with gains giving up and an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the low price of aniline and the inverted profits of upstream enterprises, mainstream factories began to push up prices, boosting market purchasing power. Aniline prices rose three times in a row, exceeding the 10000 yuan mark. Subsequently, the market entered the stage of digesting the increase, with upstream inventory falling to a low level and downstream demand dominating. Under the premise of reasonable control of inventory and stable supply, aniline prices were flexibly adjusted, resulting in a weak market trend at the end of the month.

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the price fell due to the negative macro sentiment. Subsequently, some downstream units restarted, and the demand side was favorable, causing pure benzene prices to fluctuate and rise. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 8568 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current purchasing power of the aniline market is weak, downstream profitability is average, and the ability to accept high priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the aniline market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

In August 2024, the downstream demand for adhesive short fibers continued to be weak, with mediocre performance and average on-site sales. The adhesive short fiber market maintained stable operation and prices remained stable. The market for dissolved pulp, the main raw material, is operating steadily, with decent cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories have average purchasing power, mainly consuming raw material inventory. Overall, the on-site sales are stable, and the demand in the end market is still light. The price of viscose staple fiber market is temporarily stable, but the traditional textile boom season is coming soon, and industry players have strong price support emotions. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream yarn factories.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced at 7700-7800 yuan/ton, while the price of broad-leaved pulp for external markets is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have fluctuated, with prices in the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and sulfuric acid market remaining firm and stable. The liquid alkali market has experienced a narrow decline, while the adhesive short fiber market still has support.

Supply and inventory: The pre maintenance equipment in the adhesive short fiber market has resumed normal operation. In August, most manufacturers’ equipment was operating stably, and the on-site operating rate is at a high level. Currently, the industry’s daily operating rate is around 83.72%. However, with the gradual delivery of previous orders from manufacturers and an increase in on-site supply, the inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have increased compared to July, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The textile terminal market in August is still in a low season of demand, with downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mostly executing early orders and consuming raw material inventory. The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and there is a small amount of replenishment during low prices, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side. Price stalemate consolidation.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Downstream cotton yarn is consolidating weakly, with market execution orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers have adjusted prices narrowly, but overall prices remain stable. Overall shipments are average, inventory is basically maintained, and demand performance is weak. As of August 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) is 17375 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast

The raw material side dissolution slurry market remains strong and stable, with continued positive support from the cost side. The market supply has increased, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. With the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in September, downstream demand will improve, but it is difficult to have a significant improvement. Both positive and negative factors coexist in the market. Overall, it is expected that the adhesive short fiber market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited price fluctuations or the possibility of a slight increase. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

Recently (8.21-8.27), the domestic price of ethyl acetate has risen first and then fallen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 27th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the price of 6066.67 yuan/ton on August 21st. The main reason for the weak operation of ethyl acetate prices is due to the decline in costs, limited support from the demand side, and bearish supply side markets.

Market analysis: Recently, the ethyl acetate market has been mainly running weakly. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, which has had a negative impact on the cost side; On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong have a bearish attitude and their bidding prices continue to decline; The downstream side consumes inventory slowly, with low purchasing enthusiasm, and the impact of cost reduction on downstream market entry mentality, resulting in a poor market transaction atmosphere; There is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the price of ethyl acetate is weakly declining.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with weak cost support and insufficient upward momentum for ethyl acetate; On the supply side, the prices of major factories are declining, and the mentality of industry players is bearish; The downstream side does not have a buying and selling mentality, and the enterprise consumes more inventory, resulting in weak demand performance. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will consolidate weakly in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2101 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1850-2000 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, and the market for sodium metabisulfite was sluggish, with inquiries dominating the market. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sodium metabisulfite market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has remained stable this week. As of August 11th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3375 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the week price of 3375 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 7.14%.

This week, the acetic acid market remained stable, with firm enterprise quotations being the main factor. During the week, manufacturers actively shipped goods with a slight decrease in inventory. Downstream market entry followed up as needed, and the sales pressure on enterprises was not high. Business operators had a wait-and-see attitude, and on-site transactions were still acceptable. Acetic acid prices remained stable.

As of August 11th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On August 5th/ August 11th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market is weak and declining. As of August 11th, the average price in the domestic market was 2460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to the price of 2490 yuan/ton on August 5th. The downstream demand for methanol continues to be weak, with more supply side recovery than loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization and a bearish impact on the market, leading to a narrow decline in methanol spot prices.

Downstream acetic anhydride prices remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 5652.50 yuan/ton on August 11th, unchanged from the price of 5652.50 yuan/ton on August 5th. The upstream acetic acid market is stable, but the cost benefits for acetic anhydride are limited. Downstream acetic anhydride is following up as needed, and on-site trading is still acceptable. Market news is quiet, and the acetic anhydride market is operating steadily and observing.

Market forecast: The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current market news is quiet, and domestic acetic acid plants maintain their previous load. There is no pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and the mentality of industry players is mainly wait-and-see. Downstream market entry is mostly followed up according to demand. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate in the short term, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

Aluminum prices continued to fall in July, but in early August, the decline in aluminum prices converged and began to show signs of stabilization. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on August 9, 2024 was 19026.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the market average price of 19186.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

Reasons for stabilizing and stopping the decline in August

1. The price of raw material alumina remains firm, and the cost side is supported by the amplification of influencing factors after the decline in aluminum prices.

2. Domestic macro news has been released. The domestic action plan to accelerate the construction of a new type of power system has been introduced, which is overall beneficial for the fields of new energy power generation and electric vehicle charging piles, and has a driving effect on the demand for electrolytic aluminum.

3. Currently, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen to near the marginal cost, and the import window is still closed, narrowing the downward space and providing some support for prices.

Summary of Negative Factors in August

1. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has accumulated slightly. As of August 5th, the mainstream market electrolytic aluminum inventory in China is 819000 tons.

On the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed production one after another, and new projects in Inner Mongolia have been put into operation, resulting in a slight increase in daily production of electrolytic aluminum in China.

On the demand side, the off-season effect is intensifying, and the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing links is declining.

Aluminum prices may stabilize and stop falling in August

At present, aluminum prices remain at the level of 90000 yuan, and downstream acceptance has increased. It is expected that aluminum prices may stabilize and stop falling in August.

In July 2024, the focus of the domestic adhesive short fiber market slightly increased. The upstream raw material market is showing an upward trend, and the cost side support is still acceptable. The downstream market mostly maintains on-demand procurement, and the demand side performs steadily. Adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and the inventory level in the market continues to decline. Some sources of supply are tight, and favorable factors in the market dominate, resulting in a narrow increase in adhesive short fiber market prices.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13500 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month price of 13420 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.60%.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution slurry remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution slurry for domestic enterprises is reference to 7700 yuan/ton, and the price for external markets is reference to 940 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid continue to rise, and the cost support is strong. The average production cost of adhesive short fibers has increased.

In terms of supply and inventory, there have been frequent changes in the equipment of adhesive short fiber manufacturers during the month. Some adhesive short fiber equipment in Jiangxi region stopped briefly at the beginning of the month, some adhesive short fiber pre maintenance equipment in Xinjiang region restarted partially in the first half of the month, and some adhesive short fiber equipment in Hebei region underwent a 7-day rotation inspection in the middle of the month. Currently, the overall market supply is stable, and the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry in July was around 83.81%. The inventory level of various manufacturers is low, and some models in the field have tight supply, with good supply support.

On the demand side: The textile terminal market is in a low season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mostly execute early orders, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and replenishing in small quantities at low prices, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side.

Future forecast

At present, the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market is tight, and the inventory in the market is low, providing some favorable support for the dissolution pulp market. It is expected that the market price of raw material dissolution pulp will stabilize at a high level next month, so it is expected that the cost support of adhesive short fibers will be good next month. Although the textile terminal market is still in the off-season of demand, there is a possibility of centralized replenishment by manufacturers as they approach the new round of signing orders for yarn mills. It is expected that there will still be some support from the demand side for adhesive short fibers next month. Overall, Shengyi Society expects the market for adhesive short fibers to remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations or the possibility of a slight increase. Prices are expected to be in the range of 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market has been operating weakly and steadily. The upstream raw material propylene market first stabilized and then rose, and the cost support is still acceptable. This week, the acrylonitrile factory followed the spot market with a slight decline, coupled with low downstream demand, and the lack of confidence in the future market, so some transaction prices on the market are biased towards the lower end. However, due to production cost factors, the downward space of the acrylonitrile market is relatively limited. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for self pickup in East China ports is around 9000 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of domestic acrylonitrile plants remains around 8.30%.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has been mainly volatile this week, with the mainstream reference being 7100-7120 yuan/ton. Currently, the 200000 tons/year polypropylene plant of Jingbo Petrochemical restarted on July 28th, causing loose propylene offers in some areas and exacerbating downstream buying caution to some extent, resulting in weak support for price trends. It is expected that the propylene market prices will operate weakly in the short term.

Weak demand: The average operating rate of domestic ABS equipment this week was 62.86%, an increase of 3.49% month on month and a decrease of 19.22% year-on-year.

Overall, in the short term, the domestic propylene market may experience a high-level decline, with average cost support. At the end of the month, acrylonitrile factories gradually settled accounts, with limited trading activity on the market. However, some factories’ offers slightly weakened, and industry players lacked confidence in the future market. Therefore, the short-term acrylonitrile market is still mainly weakly adjusted, but considering cost factors, the downward space is relatively limited. The expected mainstream negotiated price for self pickup at East China ports is around 8900 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has been weakly adjusted this week, with a slight decline. As of July 21, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1480.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from 1482.50 yuan/ton on July 15.

On the cost side: The crude oil market is fluctuating downwards, supported by the traditional peak consumption season in the United States and the increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut. However, the market still has concerns about the economic and demand prospects, and negative sentiment also exists.

Supply side: This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been active, and the prices of petroleum coke from refineries have fluctuated. Some refineries have adjusted their prices based on sulfur content, and downstream purchases of petroleum coke are limited, with average transactions. At present, the inventory of imported petroleum coke is high and shipments are average, which provides weak overall support for the petroleum coke market.

On the demand side: Currently, the metal silicon market is entering a period of high demand, and the production of metal silicon devices continues to increase. The overall operating rate is at a high level, and the supply side has sufficient supply. Some regions are under pressure to ship, and the support provided by the supply side to the metal silicon market is limited. At present, the demand for petroleum coke procurement from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, the market for sulfur calcined coke has been weakly consolidated, and the upstream petroleum coke market is weak. Currently, most companies are stabilizing their prices and shipping, while downstream companies are mainly observing and waiting.

This week, aluminum prices have declined due to external factors and the completion of production resumption by Yunnan enterprises. In June, there was a significant increase in ingot production in Qinghai, Guizhou and other regions. Based on current market expectations for aluminum alloys and feedback from enterprises, it is expected that domestic ingot production will continue to increase in July. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises maintain essential procurement of petroleum coke.

Market forecast: Currently, there is sufficient supply of domestic petroleum coke, high port inventory, limited downstream demand, and mainly on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local petroleum coke market will consolidate weakly in the near future.

The domestic fluorite prices have continued to decline this week, with an average price of 3660 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 2.17% from the early week price of 3741.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 19.75%.

Supply side: There is little change in the supply of low-level fluorite during mining operations

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mining enterprises to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. In addition, the impact of high temperature and rainy weather has made it difficult to increase the operation of fluorite. The supply of fluorite goods is still tight, but safety inspections are gradually coming to an end. In the later stage, fluorite operation.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, declining production of refrigerants

This week, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10800-11200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and some units are still shut down recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are purchasing on demand, causing a slight decline in the domestic fluorite market.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor stocking of refrigerant companies, which has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for upstream product procurement. The industry has maintained a low level of production, and the market for some refrigerant products has declined. As a result, the fluorite market has slightly declined.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has maintained a high level.

Market forecast: In the short term, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Large mines continue to operate for immediate needs, while many small and medium-sized enterprises remain in a state of shutdown. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend is declining, and the demand in the downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly fall in the later stage.