This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the price of isooctanol was 5883.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 6.37% compared to the price of 6283.33 yuan/ton on October 20th last week. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises has resulted in a slight decrease in the operating load of isooctanol facilities. The operating rate of isooctanol is less than 90%, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased; The price of propylene has fallen, and the cost of isooctanol has decreased; This week, the supply and demand of isooctanol were weak, and coupled with the decrease in costs, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.
The cost of raw material propylene has decreased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the price of propylene was 6158.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.61% compared to the price of 6195.75 yuan/ton on October 20th. This week, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, raw material prices fell, and the cost of isooctanol decreased, increasing the pressure on the price of isooctanol to decline.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 27th, the DOP price was 7109.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.39% compared to the DOP price of 7209.17 yuan/ton on October 20th. This week, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, with DOP companies operating at less than 60% capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in operating rates. DOP production has also decreased, and demand for isooctanol has decreased, leading to significant downward pressure on isooctanol prices.
Future expectations
The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that in terms of cost, the price of propylene has fallen, the price of raw materials has fallen, and the pressure of isooctanol’s decline has increased. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises is less than 90%, and the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen a slight decrease in production, resulting in a decrease in DOP output and reduced support for isooctanol demand. In the future, the cost of isooctanol will decrease, and coupled with weak supply and demand, the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has maintained stable operation this week. On October 20th, the market price of aniline was 7935 yuan/ton, and on October 24th it was 7995 yuan/ton, with no increase during the week and a decrease of 18.31% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, suppliers in the aniline market have raised prices, and prices have remained firm. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of aniline in the market is 7950-8050 yuan/ton. Mainstream factories have increased their workload this week, and maintenance equipment is preparing to restart, resulting in insufficient support from the supply side. Downstream demand remains high as raw materials continue to weaken. Under the influence of multiple factors, the aniline market is in a state of stagnation and consolidation.
Cost wise: The main port of pure benzene in East China maintains a pace of destocking, and the market sentiment is weak. Combined with weak downstream growth and intensified losses, coupled with insufficient new orders at the terminal, secondary downstream inventory remains high and difficult to reduce, resulting in significant resistance to price transmission. The pure benzene market continues to weaken and decline.
3、 Future expectations
The current favorable supply side of the aniline market has been exhausted, coupled with weak demand and weak cost side, it is expected that the aniline market will be prone to decline but difficult to rise in the future.

In the past half month, the price of polyester bottle chips has shown a trend of first suppressing and then stabilizing. In the early stage, it fell due to the drag of costs and demand, and in the later stage, with the increase of production rate and supply, the price fluctuated at a low level.

In early October, the overall performance of the polyester bottle chip market was weak, with prices fluctuating downwards. According to data from Shengyi Society, on October 10th, the market price in East China closed at 5812 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 40 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. Subsequently, prices continued to run at a low level. On October 14th, polyester bottle chip factories lowered their quotes by 20-50 yuan. As of October 16th, the market price of polyester bottle chips has increased due to the influence of raw materials. Overall, the price of polyester bottle chips has remained stable after fluctuating and falling in the past half month.
Significant weakening of cost support
The ceasefire agreement reached between Palestine and Israel has eased the geopolitical situation, and international oil prices have fallen. The PTA and ethylene glycol markets, which are direct raw materials for polyester bottle chips, have also shown weakness, causing polyester bottle chips to lose important cost support, which is an important factor in the price decline.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the absolute price of bottle flakes mainly follows cost fluctuations. Against the backdrop of the collective weakening of upstream raw materials, it is inevitable that the price of bottle chips will fall accordingly.
Supply pressure persists
Although mainstream factories have taken joint production cuts since the middle of the year, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has remained at 73.37% recently, the market’s spot supply is still sufficient.
In addition, overcapacity is a long-term pressure faced by the industry, which continues to suppress the rebound space of prices.
Weak performance on the demand side
From January to August 2025, the production of soft drinks decreased by 4.8% year-on-year. In October, the weather turned cooler, and the demand for soft drinks and catering declined narrowly. The demand side lacked support for bottle tablets, and downstream end users’ procurement strategies mainly focused on cautious follow-up according to demand, lacking enthusiasm for large-scale stocking, resulting in a shift in the market transaction center.
Overall, Business Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term.

The market situation of the Golden September and Silver October is far from expected, and the domestic acetone market has continued to decline since October, currently hitting a new low for the year. The East China acetone market reported an average daily price of 4408 yuan/ton from October 8th to 4120 yuan/ton on October 17th, a decrease of 6.54%.

From the supply side, Sinopec’s listed prices have been continuously and centrally lowered. Currently, Sinopec’s listed prices in East and North China have dropped to 4200 yuan/ton. Due to the limited number of working days this month, traders are accelerating the progress of contract digestion, and under pressure, there is inevitably an intention to offer discounts for shipment. In October, the cargo volume of acetone in East China was 27700 tons, and in November, the in transit source was 12500 yuan/ton. At present, the operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises is over 75%.
From the demand side, downstream factories maintain the pace of replenishing essential goods and cautiously deliver orders, with limited actual trading volume. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of downstream bisphenol A plants, which will lead to an increase in demand for acetone; The operating loads of isopropanol, MMA, and MIBK have slightly changed, while the demand for acetone has not changed significantly. From a cost perspective, there has been a slight increase in both the supply and demand of raw material pure benzene, and the supply continues to be lower than demand. It is expected that the short-term price will strengthen and consolidate.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on October 17th are as follows:
Region. Quotation on October 17th /Price fluctuations in October
East China region / 4100./ -300
Shandong region / 4250./ -350
Yanshan region / 4250./ -300
South China region / 4270./ -300
Business Society predicts that the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants will remain at 78% in the near future, and port inventory will fluctuate around 30000 tons, mainly for digesting inventory. On the demand side, the operating rate of the downstream bisphenol A industry has declined, and on the cost side, there is little positive support. In the short term, acetone is expected to maintain a weak operational transition.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

The price of ethylene glycol loosened in September. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the average price of 4485 yuan/ton on September 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of the spot contract for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) will operate smoothly on September 30, 2025. The transaction range of the basis within the contract days before October 10 is+64 to+67, with mainstream major traders sporadically accepting spot goods. As of the close of trading, the contract basis price is+68 to+69 before September 30th, and+68 to+71 below October.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3930-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of September 29th, recent ship cargo negotiations have resulted in transactions around $506 per ton.
The main reasons for the downward shift in ethylene glycol prices in September are:
Supply increase
In September, there were significant changes in the domestic supply of ethylene glycol, which had a significant impact on its price. In July and August, multiple units underwent centralized maintenance or load reduction, resulting in supply contraction and port inventory depletion, providing significant support for the price of ethylene glycol. But as we entered September, the domestic comprehensive construction rate showed a significant rebound. The pressure of increasing supply is becoming more prominent. In the third quarter, the operating rates of various process routes for ethylene glycol fully recovered, and the operating load of coal to ethylene glycol increased significantly from 58.95% in July to 66.60% in September. The operating rate of petroleum to ethylene glycol also rebounded from 64.11% in July to 74.62% in September, and the comprehensive operating rate in September has exceeded 71%. The domestic ethylene glycol supply side has entered a steady growth channel, and the market supply pressure has significantly increased, which has weakened the factors that previously supported prices and suppressed the ethylene glycol price in September.
Downstream high operating terminal demand is weak

The demand side of ethylene glycol shows a characteristic of high production but continuous weak demand, which has constrained the price of ethylene glycol in September. The downstream polyester industry has maintained a high load of over 87%, and the support of essential needs should have boosted prices. Among them, the quarterly average of polyester filament production reached a high of 91.33%, with slight fluctuations, which strongly supported the overall production level; The quarterly operating rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 3.12% to 87.42% month on month, mainly due to the increase in enterprise load and the commissioning of new facilities. However, the continuous weak growth of orders in the terminal weaving field has led to a low willingness of polyester factories and traders to replenish inventory, limited market trading activity, and difficulty in forming an effective driving force to push up ethylene glycol prices. At the same time, the operating rate of bottle grade PET has experienced the most significant decline, with a quarterly average of only 72.45%, a significant decrease of 9.38% compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the long-term maintenance or conversion of some units; The operating rate of fiber grade PET also slightly decreased compared to the previous period. The quarterly average operating rate of the domestic polyester industry is 86.98%. Although it has slightly decreased by 4.09 percentage points compared to the second quarter, there is some seasonal slowdown pressure, but the monthly operating rate has remained stable within a narrow range of 86.5% to 87.3%. Overall, the weak performance on the demand side resulted in a lack of strong upward momentum for ethylene glycol prices in September.
The probability of ethylene glycol prices starting weak and then strong in October is high
The overall inventory of ethylene glycol ports is still relatively low, and there is currently little pressure on spot supply. The recent price decline is mainly due to considerations of pre holiday warehousing costs, weak willingness of traders to hold goods, weak medium – and long-term expectations, and weak downstream terminal hoarding willingness. During the National Day holiday, large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia arrived in Hong Kong. The total planned arrival volume of ethylene glycol at East China ports next week is 228000 tons, which is relatively high. The expectation of a rebound in port inventory has to some extent suppressed the price of ethylene glycol in mid to early October. After weak expectations and early pricing, ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and recover. There is a high probability that the price of ethylene glycol will first weaken and then strengthen in October.

In September, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, from the perspective of the East China market, the domestic phenol market price was 6800 yuan/ton on September 1st and 6846 yuan/ton on September 29th, with similar fluctuations in major mainstream markets across the country.
In the first ten days, the market experienced a rapid upward trend. In the first half of the year, the main focus was on supplementing domestic trade with cargo in the East China region. Despite significant delays in operations, there was a clear shortage of supply in port inventory. As of the 15th, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was only 5000 tons, which remained low for the previous week. In the first ten days, the phenol market quickly rose and broke through 7000 yuan/ton.

In the second half of the year, after a rapid upward trend, the market experienced a rational correction due to the comprehensive acceptance of high prices by end-users and the negative impact of cost factors. Although the supply side was still tight at that time, high prices were difficult to support. At the same time, the monthly average price was high in the second half of the year, and the market showed a downward trend. Sinopec also adjusted its listing price accordingly.
In terms of equipment, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants has dropped to a low point of 66%.
Business Society expects to pay more attention to downstream stocking before the National Day holiday. Currently, there is not much pressure on Jiangyin Port’s inventory. With the gradual restart of parking facilities, downstream stocking before the holiday will also be affected by the industry’s operating rate, with more stocking on demand. After the holiday, there may be more stocking on demand. Overall, apart from short-term support in the phenol market supply, there will be significant market pressure in the later stages, and the market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of September 28th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2383.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 2357.50 yuan/ton on September 22nd.

The rise in crude oil prices this week is mainly due to the potential supply risk caused by the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the possible escalation of the US sanctions against some oil producing countries, which will superimpose on the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory to jointly support oil prices.
This week, the market for refined petroleum coke has slightly increased, with average shipments from refineries. Recently, the price of petroleum coke has fluctuated; Recently, some refineries have reduced their inventory before the holiday, coupled with cautious downstream procurement, which has limited support for the petroleum coke market. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been acceptable, while the price of sponge coke continues to rise and inquiries have increased.
This week, the market for calcined coke has remained stable with an upward trend, and downstream purchases are relatively active. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to increase prices for newly signed orders.
Market forecast: Currently, orders from some manufacturers during the holiday period have basically ended, and downstream demand still exists, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that petroleum coke will remain stable and consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 19th to 26th, the domestic ethanol price was 5550 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%. Due to pre holiday and downstream stocking in some regions, the transaction price of corn ethanol in the market has slightly increased. Some regions have significant logistics restrictions, mainly consuming local sources of goods, resulting in narrow fluctuations in the market.

On the cost side, new grain products are being launched one after another, and regional market trends are emerging in various regions. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.
On the supply side, the impact of ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, the terminal demand has improved, the starting load of solvent and downstream demand has risen, the starting of Baijiu factories may increase, the ethanol consumption has increased, and the demand for food preparation before the festival has risen. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Market forecast: Under the influence of pre holiday stocking, factories are actively shipping. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the short-term ethanol market is expected to rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, 85% of industrial grade formic acid in China has shown weak performance recently. As of September 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society formic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week and in the middle of the year.

Fundamentals: Dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand
On the supply side: stable output, the operating rate of major domestic enterprises remains above 70%, and the maintenance plan of Liaocheng factory has not been executed as scheduled, which has disappointed the market’s expectations of supply contraction. As of September 18th, the inventory of major enterprises has begun to come under pressure, and some enterprises have extended their inventory cycles to more than 15 days.
Demand side: structural differentiation under weak recovery
Traditional fields: Agriculture is in a seasonal adjustment period, with weak growth in demand for feed additives; The leather and textile industries are affected by sluggish terminal consumption, with a production rate of less than 60%.
Emerging fields: Demand for environmentally friendly materials, biodiesel catalysts, etc. has increased, but the scale is relatively small, making it difficult to offset the weakness in traditional fields.
Export market: Strong export orders in August (Shandong’s major factories were ranked until September), but new orders signed in September were flat, with the main force executing previously backlogged orders, weakening market support.
The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market presents the characteristics of “oversupply, weak demand, and price pressure”. In the short term, the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to fundamentally improve, and prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 15th to 19th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 15083 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15016 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.44% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 16.96%. During the week, the aggregated MDI supply remained stable with average inquiries and few transactions, resulting in a slight downward shift in the actual transaction price center. Intermediary quotations follow the market trend, while large factories maintain stable quotations. The news support is limited, and the trading atmosphere is average.

On the supply side, the 80000 tons/year MDI plant in Dongcao Rui’an restarted on August 26th and the plant has returned to normal.
On the cost side, pure benzene has slightly increased this week. International oil prices have risen and the Double Festival is approaching, with downstream demand for stocking up. Pure benzene prices have fluctuated and risen, and the future market is limited by the weak impact of its own fundamentals, with limited upward space. The aniline market saw a slight increase, with stable supply and demand, and a stable future.
On the demand side, the downstream market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the Jinjiu market has not shown significant improvement. With weak fundamentals, the aggregated MDI market is difficult to pick up.
Future forecast: Currently, the supplier’s production is stable, the source of goods is filling quickly, and the demand is not strong. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.