In September, the market of styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 30, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11800 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from 11783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 11830 yuan/ton, and the monthly low point was 11733 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, there is a small increase compared with the early stage, and there is a certain need for support for styrene butadiene rubber; The price of raw materials rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker in the face of butadiene benzene support; The supply side is relatively loose, forming a small negative for SBR. As of the 30th day, the market offer of SBR 1502 was RMB 11700~12200/ton

SBR supply fluctuated slightly in September. Shenhua Chemical SBR started to operate from Line 2 to Line 3 at the beginning of the month; Li Changrong started the shutdown and maintenance of 50000 t/a styrene butadiene unit at the beginning of the month to the middle of the month; Weitai began to reduce its load to the first line in the middle of the month.

The cost support of SBR in September was first strong and then weak. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker from strong to weak in the face of styrene butadiene rubber support. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 29, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, down 4.14% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 9277 yuan/ton. As of September 29, the price of styrene was 9312 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from 9075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high and low point was 9820 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in September, which had more influence on SBR. As of September 29, the price was 12366 yuan/ton, up 4.71% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: In the peak season of Jinjiu, domestic tire enterprises started to work slightly, with full steel tires starting at around 60% and semi steel tires starting at around 65%, supporting SBR.

Future market forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is basically stable, medium and loose; The price of raw materials dropped compared with the previous period; The demand side was slightly supported, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber was consolidated in a narrow range in the short term; After the festival, if the cost rises or the demand rises, SBR may have an opportunity to rise.

In September, the domestic viscose staple fiber ran in a weak position, and the price center continued to fall, down 1000 yuan/ton. It is hard to find a good situation on the demand side. The air atmosphere is thick on the site, and the turnover of human cotton yarn is difficult to improve. It is transmitted to the general enthusiasm for raw material procurement and the demand for replenishment. In the last ten days of this month, the price of dissolved pulp in the outer disk was lowered, and the support for the cost of viscose staple fiber was loosened, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to a new level.

In September, with the price adjustment of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, declining, the trading of rayon yarn continued to be cold, and the price also showed a downward trend. Recently, the market still has the performance of selling goods at reduced prices. Under the condition of weak demand, it is difficult to stimulate the downstream to receive goods. The market trading atmosphere is light and difficult to change. Enterprises negotiate with each other to deliver goods. Most deals are based on rigid demand.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall in September. As of September 30, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13840 yuan/ton, 1020 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 6.86%.

The price trend of rayon yarn

Renmian Yarn Price Trend Chart

The price of human cotton yarn followed the decline. As of September 30, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 18166 yuan/ton, showing a situation of price without market. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month, the price fell by nearly 500 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.50%.

Price rise and fall chart of viscose staple fiber/rayon yarn industry chain

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall load is about 55% at present. The overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. In terms of demand, the start-up rate of downstream cotton yarn enterprises was basically stable. Renmian still sold goods in some areas, but the actual transaction situation has not improved. The downstream still maintains the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of finished products of Renmian yarn enterprises has risen by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the willingness to take delivery of goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

Recently, the price of raw material dissolving pulp and chemical materials has declined, and the cost support of viscose staple fiber has loosened compared with the early stage. In terms of demand, the weak market situation is difficult to ease, and enterprise operations still focus on priority shipping; The downward transfer of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn inventory was blocked, the market was pessimistic, and the possibility of downward adjustment remained after the festival. At present, the downstream expectation of “gold nine silver ten” is also relatively disappointed, and is pessimistic about the future market. The analysts of the business association predict that the viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position, and the possibility of continued price decline still exists.

The price of ethylene glycol rose slightly in September after the decline

According to the data from the business community, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4350 yuan/ton on September 30, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4125 yuan/ton, up 5.45%.

According to the external data of ethylene glycol, as of September 29, the spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 497-499 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from 489-491 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month; The spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia rose by 30 dollars/ton to 524-526 dollars/ton from 494-496 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene glycol fundamentals

From the supply side data, at present, the overall domestic ethylene glycol operation maintains a relatively low startup rate, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the domestic ethylene glycol supply is expected to recover at a low level.

On the demand side, the terminal orders were weak in the first half of the year, and the weaving operating rate was always below 85%. As the year gradually entered the peak season, the demand is expected to be repaired. The winter orders are expected to increase. At present, the gray fabric inventory is at a medium to high position. The polyester finished product inventory is expected to decline slightly in the short term. The polyester profit is low, and the bottle piece is better than the staple fiber than the filament.

The inventory data shows that the ethylene glycol inventory of the main port in East China is about 800000 tons, and it is estimated that the arrival volume of the main port in East China during the National Day will reach 240000 tons.

Future market forecast

In the early stage, the low price of ethylene glycol and the shrinking supply brought about a slight improvement in the price, but the improvement in supply and demand may be difficult to sustain. Although ethylene glycol is expected to go to the warehouse in the near future, the subsequent coal production may return rapidly in the stage when the raw material ethylene is surplus and the refining supporting ethylene glycol is still in production. In addition, the downstream demand is less than expected, and MEG may operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 14.54% compared with September 1, down 37.80% year on year in a three-month cycle, and down 52.81% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall trend of acrylic acid market rose, and the prices of some enterprises decreased at the end of the month. In the first half of the year, the market price of raw propylene gradually rose, the cost support gradually rose, some enterprises’ equipment maintenance reduced the supply, the downstream stock was orderly before the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price was strong, the cost support was firm after the festival, the industry started to decline, and the downstream operating rate was comprehensively improved, which supported the steady rise of acrylic acid price. In the late ten days, the market was stable and weak. The raw propylene was stable first and then rose. The cost pressure remained, but the demand was flat, the buying was average, and the early inventory was more digested. Near the end of the month, the downstream stock was gradually approaching the end, and the manufacturer’s quotation was stable and slightly changed.

On September 28, the benchmark price of upstream propylene in the business community was 7610.60 yuan/ton, up 7.18% from September 1 (7100.60 yuan/ton).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost support is still there, the holiday is approaching, the downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, and the market trading atmosphere is stable. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 28, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 9733 yuan/ton, and on September 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9250 yuan/ton), the price increased by 483 yuan/ton, or 4.50%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.28), the domestic propylene glycol market has been rising as a whole. In the first ten days of September, supported by the high cost of raw materials and the low inventory of propylene glycol in the field, the domestic propylene glycol market saw a steady rise at the beginning of the month, and the price rose by nearly 6% to 400-600 yuan/ton within five days. Subsequently, the market continued to consolidate at a high level.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the center of gravity of propylene glycol market continued to move towards the high-end. With the rising cost and the downstream demand side being boosted, the pressure on propylene glycol supply was low, and the market ushered in a broad rise. As of September 15, the propylene glycol market price was near 9900-10300 yuan/ton, and the market rose by more than 9% in the first ten days.

At the end of September, on the 16th and 17th, the propylene glycol market price rose again as a whole, with an upward range of about 200 yuan/ton, and then the market remained stable at a high level. Since the 21st, with the decline of raw material costs, propylene glycol cost side support has become loose. In addition, after the high price on the market, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased. With the market trading and investment on the market becoming weak, and both supply and demand becoming weak, propylene glycol market prices have started to fall back from a high level. As of September 28, the domestic propylene glycol market price has referred to around 9500-9800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.29% in the last ten days. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol market is light, and the overall performance of new orders is average.

On the upstream side, the propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene rose, and the cost support was gradually strengthened. Before the festival, the on-site devices were mainly stable, the supply was tight, the factory shipments were smooth, the market was not pressured, and the market returned after the festival. The market continued to be tight, the demand side was flat, the downstream mentality was different, and the focus was on watching carefully. On the 15th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10500-10600 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the cost support remained, some units recovered, and the supply side increased, but the demand side was still flat. The downstream waited and waited, the inventory was slightly accumulated, and the price was lowered. In the last ten days, as the downstream polyether orders rebounded, factory shipments improved, the inventory pressure eased, and the market price rose slightly. After the deadlock operation, the mainstream quotation of the epoxy propane market in Shandong was around 9800-9900 yuan/ton on the 28th.

Future trend analysis

At present, the National Day holiday is coming, and the logistics and transportation have been stopped. After the completion of the propylene glycol staging, the current market new orders are not good. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community thinks that during the pre holiday period, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly weak, and the overall market fluctuation will not be too large. More attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand.

The price of ethylene oxide has risen slightly in the past 10 days, with an increase of 5.63%. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

During the cycle, ethylene oxide continued its previous strong trend, but it has stagnated recently due to the following reasons:

1. The upstream ethylene price fell, and the cost support weakened.

According to the external data, the spot CIF middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia decreased by 50 dollars/ton in the cycle, from 960 dollars/ton on the 16th to 910 dollars/ton on the 26th; The spot CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia decreased by 70 dollars/ton in the cycle, from 970 dollars/ton on the 16th to 900 dollars/ton on the 26th.

2. Both downstream supply and demand are weak;

In terms of downstream, the domestic polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market quotation is firm within the week. At present, the monomer factory has a low starting load of about 40%, the supply is not high, and the demand for construction in the terminal market is relatively weak, but it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. At present, the downstream has raised the price of ethylene oxide, which is acceptable, without significant negative feedback.

The business agency predicts that the price of ethylene oxide may fluctuate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 26, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, which was 1.00% higher than that of last Tuesday (September 20), 11.85% higher than that of August 26, and 7.65% lower than that of last three months.

Recently (9.20-9.26), the market of propylene oxide has risen slightly. In the near future, the raw propylene market has been generally stable, with some support on the cost side. On the 20th, the downstream was mainly cautious. As the downstream polyether orders rebounded, factory shipments improved, inventory pressure eased, and the market quotation rose slightly. On the 26th, the market atmosphere was general, and the downstream just needed to follow up. The mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9800-9900 yuan/ton.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 23, the reference price of propylene was 7430.60, up 4.65% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 10000.00 on September 23, an increase of 8.11% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that at present, the raw propylene has been consolidated and operated, the cost support still exists, the supply side inventory has been slightly accumulated, the pressure is not great, and the demand side is light. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be weak, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidelines.

This week (9.19-23), the domestic liquid ammonia market was operating steadily, and the market gradually entered a bottleneck period after the previous sharp rise. The supply was tight to loose, and Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other major production areas in the north stopped rising and stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business community, the rise and fall of liquid ammonia this week was 0.

Main domestic markets:

This week, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was stable, and the market offer on Friday mostly maintained the price level on Monday. The overall quotation of Shandong manufacturers did not change much this week, most of them did not make any adjustment, and the market was generally strong. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is average. At present, the supply and demand in this region are basically balanced, the downstream demand is slightly increased, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is increased, and the urea price is relatively strong, which still supports the ammonia price. As of Friday, the mainstream price in the region was 4200-4400 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei Province was stable. The dealers generally reported flat shipments. There was no significant change in the quotation of large factories from the beginning of the week to the weekend, but the price was still firm. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not great. Downstream procurement just needs to be maintained, and agricultural demand has increased. At present, the amount of ammonia in the region remains normal, and supply and demand are basically balanced. The mainstream price in the region was 4050-4250 yuan/ton on Friday.

Future market forecast:

According to the analysts of the business community, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia market basically remained balanced, and the market generally stopped rising and stabilized. In the later period, many units had plans to resume production, and the supply was expected to increase or put pressure on the ammonia price. However, considering that the current agricultural demand is not decreasing, and the National Day is near, the downstream stores will be centralized before the festival, which still supports the ammonia market. In comprehensive consideration, the liquid ammonia will be operated in a narrow range and stronger in the near future.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 3930 yuan/ton, up 11.02% year on year.

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. The price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose slightly this week. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2266.67 yuan/ton, 3.03% higher than the price of 2200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the goods in the market are getting better. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market is mainly rising, and the price of raw nitric acid is rising, which benefits the ammonium nitrate market. The price of ammonium nitrate market has stabilized.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 4306.67 yuan/ton, 4.19% higher than the price of 4133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The market trend of liquid ammonia in the domestic liquid ammonia market has risen, and some manufacturers have raised their prices. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Hubei and other regions have risen to varying degrees. The weekly increase is about 150-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not big, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, the export volume is reduced, and the downstream demand is just in need of support. The mainstream price in the market is 4300-4400 yuan/ton. The rising price of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The market demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, and the price of liquid ammonia has risen. In addition, the price of nitric acid has not changed much. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal, and the demand has not improved significantly. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain stable in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of September 16 was 8266.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Tuesday (September 13), increased by 6.44% compared with the price on August 16, and decreased by 13.89% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market was stable this week. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen, the cost support has improved, the equipment maintenance of some enterprises in the supply side, the melamine operating rate has declined, and the export order support of some enterprises in the demand side is fair. The domestic downstream demand follows the general trend, continuing to purchase just in need. The manufacturers mainly implement the early orders, and the market negotiation focuses on stable operation at a high level.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on September 15, and the upstream anthracite price rose slightly, with good cost support. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The rubber sheet plant started at a low level, mainly for the purchase of just needed products, and the compound fertilizer plant followed up at a low level. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, it is expected that the daily output of urea will be about 150000 tons in some regions with limited production.

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that at present, the price of raw material urea is relatively strong, the cost side support is strong, and the supply side has some support, but the demand side performance is average. The downstream is in conflict with the high price supply, and the enterprise mainly issues early orders. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.