According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference is 8700 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than the price on October 30 (8500 yuan/ton), or 2.35% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.04), the domestic butanone market overall showed a slight upward trend. The driving force supporting the small upward trend of domestic butanone market mainly comes from the following two aspects:

On the one hand, in terms of cost, the post C4 market of raw material ether has been running steadily upward since the middle of October, and the cost side has gradually strengthened its support for butanone. The quotations of butanone manufacturers are mostly stable or slightly increased.

Second, in terms of supply, in October, the overall performance of butanone export was good. In November, the domestic spot supply was controllable, and the overall supply side pressure was small, supporting the market to rise slightly.

As of November 4, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price increase is about 200-400 yuan/ton.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, after the butanone market rose slightly, the trading volume was average, the overall performance of the demand side was poor, and the trading atmosphere in the market was light. The butanone data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the upward momentum of the butanone market continued to be limited, and the market mostly focused on the range consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market is 17880 yuan/ton, which is 40 yuan/ton higher than the reference price of October 30, 2022 (17760 yuan/ton), or 0.68% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that last week, the market situation of silicone DMC steadily recovered. Shandong large factories raised the price of silicone DMC by 500 yuan/ton accumulatively last week. Although the prices of large factories did not increase widely, they also promoted the overall atmosphere of the market. Entering this week (10.31-11.04), at the beginning of the week, the leading large factories slightly raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC to around 18000-18200 yuan/ton. Most of the other monomer plants offer stable and firm prices. At present, as of November 4, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 17800-18200 yuan/ton. The main driving factors supporting the recent upward movement of the silicone DMC market are from the following two aspects:

1、 In terms of supply, at present, most of the equipment in the monomer factory has started to undergo reduced maintenance, and the starting load of the monomer factory has dropped to about 6 floors. The monomer factory has actively reduced the load to cope with the current weak market situation. In addition, the transportation in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been blocked, and the spot circulation of silicone DMC has decreased, mainly supporting the silicone DMC manufacturers to firm their quotations.

2、 In terms of cost, in this week, although the price of raw metal silicon declined slightly, it still remained at a high level as a whole. Therefore, the cost still gave support to the DMC market.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the domestic metal silicon market declined slightly in November. On November 4, the reference price of metal silicon was 21190 yuan/ton, down 1.3% compared with November 1 (21470 yuan/ton).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the support given to organosilicon DMC by downstream demand is still insufficient. In the early stage, downstream users bought on bargain, and some organosilicon DMC stocks on the market were digested, but the market is still in a wait-and-see mood, and the enthusiasm for stocking has not been fully opened. Therefore, the silicone DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market tends to adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (October 28 to November 4). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend and 17300 yuan/ton this weekend, which was flat.

Manganese ore: The overall transaction was average. The spot side was driven by the good alloy futures. The merchants tried to raise the offer. However, the manufacturers were in a general mood to receive goods due to poor profits. In terms of external markets, South32 offered manganese ore to China in December, with high quality Australian pieces of 4.7 dollars per ton (down 0.1 dollars per ton) and South African semi carbonate of 3.98 dollars per ton (down 0.04 dollars per ton). The overall decline was smaller than expected, which gave some support to the spot price. In terms of spot goods, the transaction price of Tianjin Port Australia block was 43.5-44 yuan/ton, that of semi carbonic acid was 33.5-34 yuan/ton, and that of Gabon was about 38.5 yuan/ton. Low price resources decreased. The overall inventory of the port remains high, but if the alloy price goes up, the quotation of manganese ore will also be slightly adjusted.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the end of August, the price has continued to stabilize temporarily, and since the end of September, the price has risen slightly.

The market price of electrolytic manganese is temporarily stable this week, with the mainstream price of 15500-15700 yuan/ton. At the end of October, the EMM Innovation Working Committee of China Mining Association proposed to stop the production of EMM completely in January 2023, and to stop the production of EMM by 50% from February to December 2023. Six suggestions were adopted at the meeting. The impact of this proposal on the market remains to be seen. At present, the market enterprises have a strong mentality of price fixing, and it is difficult to find low price goods on the market. The overall market is bullish. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market, which lacks the support of actual demand, will maintain a temporary stable operation in the future. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction will benefit the market to a certain extent, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese silicon: After the sharp drop on Monday, the market performance improved significantly on Wednesday, led by the black series. The second half of the week saw a very encouraging rise. The confidence in the industry was significantly boosted. Except for the firm quotations of most enterprises, some companies did not offer to the outside world for the time being, and showed a wait-and-see trend. In November, the steel bidding was launched, and the mining volume of Hegang Group was raised on a month on month basis, which improved the market confidence. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 6950-7000 yuan/ton on November 4, with the average market price of 6983 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market continued to fall in November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 4, the drop in this month was 2.09%, 7.53% lower than the peak in mid October. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week (October 31 to November 4). Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream of adipic acid fell heavily, with the decline of 4.49% for pure benzene and 6.61% for cyclohexane. While the cost side is negative, it relieves the cost pressure of adipic acid production. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 4.49%. On the one hand, the guiding price of the main refinery was lowered by 250 yuan/ton, which dampened the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, the inventory pressure of styrene and pure benzene manufacturers is high this week, and the increase in supply puts pressure on the market. The superposition of ports has led to a sharp increase in domestic supply. On the other hand, affected by road restrictions, the poor flow of goods further limits the market circulation and circulation speed. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is between 6900-7400 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.

Supply side: Some adipic acid plants slightly increased the negative operating rate

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of this month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the collection price of Shandong Dachang was significantly reduced by 500 yuan/ton, which brought pressure to the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid is approaching 60% this week. Xinjiang Tianli plant resumed operation, in addition, Taihua plant was lifted; However, at the same time, one set of Shenma equipment entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month, while the rest of the equipment did not change much, and the overall supply rebounded slightly. The enterprise continues to accumulate the stock.

Demand side: weak downstream demand to maintain rigid demand

Adipic acid downstream performance is tepid, the demand side is weak, the market buying is light, and the early inventory is mainly digested. Downstream factories are cautious in taking goods, and sporadic just need to make up orders to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 0 this week. Since August, PA66 has continued to rise, mainly due to the manufacturer’s equipment maintenance and the shortage of market supply. The market has stopped rising since late October. The cost and sales pressure of polymerization plants increased, and the market callback pressure increased. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, the later period of crude oil shock and rise may bring benefits to pure benzene. However, considering that the supply pressure of pure benzene is still large, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve too much in the later period, and it is undoubtedly difficult to boost the cost of adipic acid. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

On October 27, the crude benzol commodity index was 97.64, down 4.62 points from yesterday, 25.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 219.71% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In October 2022, the crude benzene market rose first and then fell. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.5%.

In October, the crude oil fluctuated widely and rose on the whole. As of the 27th day, the SC crude oil had jumped out of the stalemate for several consecutive days, and the market’s bullish enthusiasm rose rapidly. On the 27th, the main contract of SC crude oil rose 1.83% to close at 678.9 yuan/barrel. Macroscopically, the US dollar has declined, and the pressure on US dollar denominated commodities has eased; In addition, the weak economic data strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase, and the oil market received some support. On the supply and demand side, the US oil export reached a record high, which was beneficial to the higher operating rate of US refineries.

In the short term, the macro and supply and demand sides are good for the oil market, and the oil price is short-term or strong. However, the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia is coming into effect soon. The oil market is uncertain due to the disturbance of such factors as geopolitics. In the medium and long term, the bad news on the demand side will continue to suppress oil prices. The increased risk of the global economy entering recession will make the oil market continue to maintain a volatile trend. A short-term rebound cannot change the long-term trend.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

October 8., 8000.,+150

October 10., 8200.,+200

October 13., 8000., – 200

October 18., 7850., – 150

October 26., 7650., – 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene. In October 2022, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has risen twice and decreased three times, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 550 yuan/ton. As of the 28th, the price will be 7650 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7530 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Weilian Chemical quoted 7503 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell in October. During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price rose significantly. After the festival, the pure benzene market was significantly boosted. After the festival, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, which again boosted the market mentality. The market price rose significantly. After the festival, there was a certain demand for replenishment in some downstream markets. The superimposed market atmosphere was good. After the festival, the market trading was warm, and the price of pure benzene was adjusted at a high level for a period of time. By the middle of October, the downstream weakness had declined, adversely affecting the upstream market. The concentrated arrival of pure benzene at ports had once again affected the market mentality. The pure benzene market began to enter the downward channel. Sinopec had lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for four consecutive times since about the 13th, and the spot market had fallen significantly, and the market trading was relatively cold. The trend of hydrogenated benzene followed that of pure benzene this month, which was basically a high shock in the first half of the month, while the price in the second half of the month dropped significantly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of crude benzol market, the trend fluctuated at an initial high in October and began to decline significantly in the middle of the year, basically following the overall trend of the industrial chain. As of the last bidding day of October 27, the mainstream price in Shandong was 6250~6255 yuan/ton, 560 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month. Near the end of the month, affected by the weak overall performance of the industrial chain, the profits of benzol hydrogenation enterprises were tightened. It was heard that some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the demand for crude benzene was afraid to decline. Coking enterprises are about to enter the heating season. Coking enterprises are facing off peak production. At that time, the output of by-products will decline, and the supply of crude benzol in the future is expected to be tight. In general, the bad news and good news in the crude benzol market are intertwined. Under the market environment of tight supply and declining demand, the crude benzol price is expected to be stable and weak. In the future, we will focus on the guidance of crude oil price trend on the industrial chain and the change of operating rate of coking enterprises.

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of domestic mainstream urea market fell in shock this month: the price of urea fell from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.92%. A year-on-year drop of 18.64%.

On October 30, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In October, the price of urea fell slightly, with the highest weekly drop of 2.15%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic urea mainstream market rose and fell each other this month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the urea upstream products fell sharply this month as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, from 68342.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5540.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 18.93%, 24.04% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1780.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up by 70 yuan/ton. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea rose slightly in the future

The urea market may rise slightly in the first ten days of November. The upstream anthracite and natural gas prices were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is followed up appropriately, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. In the future, urea may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the NMP market rose strongly in October and then remained stable at a high level. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 26,566 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 28,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.4%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 28th, the mainstream quotation in the domestic electronic NMP market was 27500-28500 yuan/ton, and the high-end quotation reached 30000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of October, some factories in the NMP market were short of supply and stopped reporting. It was discussed on a single basis. At the same time, the road transportation in some regions was blocked, and the arrival of NMP raw materials was limited. As a result, the NMP in some regions was insufficient to start work, the supply was tightened, the NMP price and goods were tight, and the downstream inquiry was active. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the demand increased, and the market continued to rise until about the middle of October. From the end of October, the market maintained a stable trend, and the factories were willing to support prices, In the downstream, there is a resistance to high prices. The demand is relatively stable, and the market continues to push up with insufficient momentum.

As of October 28, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 27

Eastern China, 26000-27000 yuan/ton

Central China, 26000-27500 yuan/ton

Southwest China, 26500-27500 yuan/ton

In October, the domestic BDO market was mainly reorganized. After the National Day holiday, the rising trend in September continued. The auction prices of some manufacturers remained high. However, the sluggish demand restricts the growth of BDO market. Although the manufacturer has bid for 14700 yuan/ton for many times, it is hard to change the downtrend of downstream, and BDO market is frozen.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts from Business Agency believe that at present, the NMP price has risen to a high level, and the downstream demand is average. At the same time, the price of raw materials tends to decline. It is expected that the market will have a narrow downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose first and then fell this month, and the overall price fell. On October 1, the average price of isopropyl alcohol was 7430 yuan/ton, and on October 31, the average price was 7120 yuan/ton. The price decreased within the month by 4.17%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of acetone and isopropanol prices from April to June

In this month, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose first and then fell, and the overall price fell. The market of isopropanol rose in the first ten days of this month due to the rising price of raw material acetone. In the middle of the year, the overall market showed a situation of mutual rise and fall, and the price was adjusted to stabilize. In the last ten days, the propylene process enterprises started to improve, the supply side continued to increase, and the market price began to decline. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 6900-7100 yuan/ton; Most quotations in Jiangsu isopropanol market are about 7100-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, acetone rose first and then fell this month, with an overall increase. On October 1, the average price of acetone was 5580 yuan/ton, and on October 31, the average price was 5840 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 4.66%. On the 26th, Sinopec’s order price in East China was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, with the implementation of 6000-6100 yuan/ton. The factory was reduced in a centralized manner, and the intention of shippers to make profits increased. In particular, the offer in East China fell significantly, with the negotiated price at 5750-5800 yuan/ton. Other mainstream regions also experienced a small decline. The end factory was slow to follow up, and inquiries were mainly limited to actual orders. The focus was on the market transactions in the afternoon.

In terms of raw propylene, the propylene market price fell this month. On October 1, the average price of propylene was 7620.6 yuan/ton, and on October 31, it was 7136.6 yuan/ton. During the month, the price fell by 6.35%. The atmosphere of market trading and investment is general, and the factory sells at a profit to stimulate the delivery of goods. At present, propylene market has loose supply and weak demand. It is expected that the short-term market of propylene will be mainly weak and downward. Considering the continuous poor profitability of the propylene industry, it is expected that there will be limited falling space.

3、 Future market forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believed that the cost support of domestic isopropanol field was average this month. Enterprises started to increase supply, market confidence was insufficient, and prices fell. It is expected that the isopropanol market may continue to decline in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

The price of o-xylene rose to a new high in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of October 28, the price of ortho xylene was 9600 yuan/ton, up 6.67% from the price of 9000 yuan/ton on October 1; The price of ortho benzene increased by 52.38% to 6300 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year. In October, the price of ortho benzene rose to a new high in the year, and the market of ortho benzene remained strong. The rise of ortho xylene in the middle and late days was weak, and the price of ortho benzene remained stable.

Raw material mixed xylene market rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price rose first and then fell in October. The mixed xylene price rose sharply in the first ten days of October, and fell back in the middle and late ten days of October. As of October 28, the price of mixed xylene was 8230 yuan/ton, down 2.02% from 8400 yuan/ton on October 10; The price of mixed xylene increased by 200 yuan/ton, or 2.49%, from 8030 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the crude oil price rising first and then falling, the mixed xylene price rose first and then fell. The future crude oil market continued the long short game. The crude oil trend was volatile. The mixed xylene lacked good support, and the mixed xylene price was weak. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the rising support of o-xylene weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride price rises and falls

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride made of o-phthalic acid has rebounded. As of October 28, the quotation of phthalic anhydride made of o-phthalic acid was 9750 yuan/ton, down 8.34% from the new high of 10637.50 yuan/ton on October 14 in the year; It was down 5.34% from 10300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the restart of phthalic anhydride unit, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped rapidly after hitting a new high. The demand for downstream plasticizers was weak. The future market was negative for phthalic anhydride. The demand for ortho benzene declined, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene increased.

Future outlook

The analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believe that, around the National Day in October, the prices of ortho xylene products in the industrial chain have risen continuously, and the prices of ortho xylene and phthalic anhydride have both hit new highs in the year, due to the impact of equipment maintenance and stock replenishment by enterprises in the industrial chain. With the end of the replenishment after the festival and the reopening of equipment, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride have dropped successively in the middle and late ten days, and the price of ortho xylene has been unable to rise and stabilized. In the future, the upstream and downstream of the ortho benzene industry chain will fall together, the cost of the weak demand for ortho benzene will fall, and the rising support for ortho benzene will be unable to increase the downward pressure. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will decline weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1496 yuan/ton on October 17, and 1500 yuan/ton on October 21. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 0.22% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium sulfate market fluctuated slightly this week, with the market trading and investment being flat, mainly focusing on consolidation and shock operation. At present, there is no good news. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the wait-and-see mood increases. The urea price decreased slightly this week, which was negative for ammonium sulfate market. Coking enterprises in some areas have limited production, the supply of ammonium sulfate has decreased, and the manufacturers sell it at a high price. The internal ammonium sulfate was adjusted slightly with little fluctuation. As of October 21, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong was about 1490 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei was about 1400 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1500-1580 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market demand was flat this week, with weak stable operation as the main factor. The wait-and-see mood was strong, waiting for the introduction of the winter reserve policy. Urea prices fell this week, agricultural demand was small and industrial demand was weak. The start-up of compound fertilizer plants declined and the demand for urea weakened. The production of urea in Shanxi is limited to 150000 tons per day. In the future, urea fell slightly in shock.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the ammonium sulfate market has been slightly shaken in the near future, the downstream demand is flat, and manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously. Under the current situation that the market is not favorable, ammonium sulfate is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.