1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1098 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1096 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and up 16.6% compared with the same period last year. On November 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 157.70, down 0.29 points from yesterday, down 40.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27), and up 142.21% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1100 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1300 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is stuck, and the supply has increased recently. Most enterprises maintain high load production. However, the downstream market is mainly in a wait-and-see mood, and more cautious purchasing is required. The purchasing mood is general, and the market is in a stalemate.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 45th week of 2022 (11.7-11.11), there were 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were: PVC (1.07%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (-2.61%) and light soda ash (-0.23%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.35%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a stalemate, and the downstream alumina, viscose staple fiber and other industries are under normal operation, so the purchasing mood is not high. It is mainly wait-and-see operation, cautious purchasing, and the overall support is limited. It is generally expected that caustic soda will be put into operation next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market was temporarily stable. As of the 18th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 9150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 19.22%.

The phthalic anhydride unit operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

There are two main production processes for phthalic anhydride, one is phthalic anhydride produced by o-benzene method, and the other is phthalic anhydride produced by naphthalene method. Recently, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, and the price difference with neighboring phthalic anhydride has narrowed to about 200 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the price trend of neighboring phthalic anhydride has temporarily stabilized. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the adjacent process is normal, the operation of domestic devices is stable, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate remains more than 50%, and the phthalic anhydride price trend in the site is temporarily stable.

The price trend of raw material o-benzene is stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, which was more stable than that at the beginning of the week. Some units in the plant are still under repair. According to the manufacturer, the supply of raw materials, ortho benzene, is still tight. The price trend of the external market is stable, and the market of ortho benzene is temporarily stable. Affected by this, the market of phthalic anhydride is stable.

Plasticizer market rose slightly

The downstream DOP market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10100 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises have started to work steadily. For phthalic anhydride, the purchase is mainly on demand, and the mainstream DOP price is 10000-1200 yuan/ton. The rising downstream market is a positive impact of the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market trend is stable.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene is stable in the short term, the demand of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the terminal demand is weak due to frequent outbreaks, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the later period.

441 # silicon price trend

The price of silicon metal continued to fall slightly this week, the market transaction atmosphere continued to be cold, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure increased, so the actual transaction price gradually fell. As of November 18, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 20910 yuan/ton according to the price monitoring of the business community.

The price of 441 # silicon in each region on the 18th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 20800-21000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 20800-21000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 20500-20600 yuan/ton, with an average of 20500 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 20500-20600 yuan/ton, with an average of 20550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 21,400-21,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21,500 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Declining Price of Silicon Metal

Supply:

The production situation in Xinjiang has improved, and the number of open furnaces is stable; Due to factors such as the rise of power cost in the dry season in Southwest China, the enthusiasm for boiler shutdown and maintenance has declined. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 702 at present. As of November 17, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 50.43%, 93 in Xinjiang, 66 in Sichuan and 80 in Yunnan.

Cost:

The price of silicon coal raw materials is high, the control in Xinjiang is relaxed, and the supply of raw materials is guaranteed. The southwest dry season is approaching, so the cost will be supported.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was the same as last week, the mainstream quotation was 18600 yuan/ton, the weekly operating rate of aluminum alloy was stable, and for metal silicon, the stock replenishment was still mainly just needed; The organic silicon DMC market rose slightly as a whole. The price reference was around 17,300-18,500 yuan/ton. With the increase of the parking and maintenance equipment at the supply side, the confidence of the operators was restored, but the production was still in a loss situation, and the enthusiasm for metal silicon procurement was poor.

The polysilicon mainstream range reached RMB 298-30900/t, and the silicon chip enterprises’ quotations remained stable,. The mainstream transaction price of M10 was stable at 7.37 yuan/piece, but downstream demand slowed down, and silicon chip manufacturers showed signs of stock accumulation, which did not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce prices.

Future market forecast

At present, production in Xinjiang has resumed, to a certain extent, filling the supply gap in the southwest dry season. However, the cost increase in Yunnan and Sichuan may continue to reduce production. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the silicon price will fall by a limited margin

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 366.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 346.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 5.46%. A year-on-year decrease of 52.82%. On November 20, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 53.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 71.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 70.84% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuates in a narrow range, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market fluctuated in a narrow range. The sulfur price fluctuated at about 1356 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 0.50%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 35.18% year on year. The upstream market fluctuated at a low level, and the cost support was average. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 11157.14 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11342.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.66%. A year-on-year drop of 19.04%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15,933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 23.95%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream sulfur market has been in a narrow range recently, with average cost support. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

The price of o-xylene stabilized this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of November 18, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of ortho xylene on November 11 last weekend. The bad news of the o-xylene industry chain has weakened, and the domestic market for o-xylene has stabilized.

Raw material mixed xylene market rose sharply this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price rose in shock this week. As of November 18, the price of mixed xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from 8020 yuan/ton on November 11. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the cost of ortho xylene rose, and the downward pressure of ortho xylene weakened and the upward momentum increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride held steady this week

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of the business community that the domestic phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France was stable this week. As of November 18, the phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France was 9150 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 9150 yuan/ton on November 11. This week, the price of orthophthalic anhydride stopped falling and became stable, downstream demand remained stable, and the downward pressure on orthoxylene weakened.

Future outlook

The analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believed that there were many negative effects on the ortho xylene industry chain in the early stage, and the ortho xylene price fell continuously. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable, and the bad news of ortho xylene market weakened. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will become stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak. On November 10, the rare earth index was 629 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 37.54% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 132.10% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of October 10, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 790000 yuan/ton, down 5.39% from the middle of October; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 650000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 5.45%; The price of neodymium oxide was 720000 yuan/ton, down 6.49%; The price of neodymium metal was 905,000 yuan/ton, down 3.75%; The price of praseodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.95%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 675000 yuan/ton, down 10.60%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises has been overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The purchase is poor. The market of light rare earths has declined. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited. At present, there is no specific notice on the release date. The production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the shipment is difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. Recently, the inventory of downstream businesses still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty of dealers in shipping, and the decline of rare earth market.

The price of dysprosium series heavy rare earth in China fell back. As of October 10, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.275 million yuan/ton, down 2.57% from the middle of October; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.265 million yuan/ton, down 2.37%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.95 million yuan/ton, down 2.16%; The price trend of domestic terbium series is declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.25 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth mainly declined. The raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The production enterprises gradually started to work. The supply of heavy rare earth increased. The dealers with goods were eager to ship, and the transaction price fell. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price decline of heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The automobile production and sales volume rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the domestic demand for rare earths was still supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, limited downstream procurement, and poor orders from magnetic material manufacturers, downstream businesses mainly digest inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market will continue to decline in the short term. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of potential for recovery.

From November 4, 2022 to November 11, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China will be lowered. Last weekend, the price was 78750 yuan/ton, and this weekend, the price was 77750 yuan/ton, down 1.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot market has been on the up trend in the near future around the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after the middle of March, and entered a downward channel in the middle of April. The decline trend slowed down at the end of April. The trend was stable in May. The price entered an upward channel in June. After a short period of stability in July, it fell again. After August, the market was gradually stable, flat for seven consecutive weeks, and the price began to decline at the end of October.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD/t)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

European small metal antimony., 11700., 10900., – 800

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe remained stable for the time being. As of November 11, the price was 10,900 US dollars/ton, with a weekly drop of 800 US dollars/ton. The market transaction was cold and the negotiation was limited.

Antimony ingot prices continued to decline this week, with European prices falling to US $10900/t for the first time, and dropping by US $800/t weekly. This week, the price of antimony ingots dropped continuously, with a cumulative decrease of 1000 yuan/ton. This round of decline occurred after the antimony ingot market temporarily stabilized for seven consecutive weeks, and broke the weak balance of the market at the end of October. The price of antimony ingot fell continuously due to the performance of antimony oxide in the downstream. At present, the market performance of downstream flame retardants is poor, the application of antimony oxide is limited, and the price continues to decline under the lack of demand support. The antimony oxide manufacturers suspend the purchase of antimony ingots. In terms of supply and demand, the overall change in the near future is not big. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, downstream enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement. In terms of supply, the output in October has not changed much since the domestic large factories resumed production in September. As the external antimony ingot price continues to decline slightly, market participants generally believe that the possibility of antimony ingot price declining is growing. The business community expects that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market will remain stable and weak under the condition that the downstream demand will not improve in the near future.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, November 4, November 11, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 65500., 65000., – 500

99.8% antimony trioxide, 67500., 67000., – 500

The domestic antimony oxide market price was weak this week, the sales of antimony oxide remained weak, and the downstream market was short of gas. The purchase of antimony ingots by antimony oxide enterprises is still on demand in the near future, and the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 49800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 49200 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 1.2%, down 28.4% year on year. On November 13, the bromine commodity index was 172.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.59% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27), and 192.99% higher than the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price was weak and consolidated, the overall market trading was average, and the bromine price continued to decline. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been lack of support, and the supply and demand game, bromine enterprises’ shipment is not smooth. However, the market transactions are still dominated by just in need procurement. The industry is pessimistic, and the downstream takes the opportunity to lower prices.

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1303.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1363.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.6%, down 35.18% year on year. At present, the sulfur market is on the sidelines, the production of the manufacturer is stable, the downstream sulfuric acid market is organized and operated, the support for sulfur is limited, the progress of winter fertilizer storage is slow, the demand for sulfur is weak, the enterprise ships on demand, and the sulfur market is organized and operated later.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides play a game. The spot supply of bromine is sufficient, and there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (November 4 to November 11). The spot market price in East China was 17300 yuan/ton last weekend, and 17250 yuan/ton this weekend, down 0.29%.

Manganese ore: With the appearance of alloy plant profits, the manganese ore end also stopped falling and stabilized, and the transactions and inquiries have improved. The semi carbonate in Tianjin Port is about 34 yuan/ton, while Gabon is about 39-39.2 yuan/ton. However, it is difficult to raise the price. The price of Australia is around 43-43.5 yuan/ton, and that of Australia is 38.5-39 yuan/ton. As the price of the external market stopped falling and stabilized, the port merchants were also unwilling to lower their prices, and the overall trend was slightly better. However, because the profits of the manufacturers were still average, the purchasing sentiment for high priced manganese ore was general, and it was still difficult for manganese ore prices to rise.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, and fell slightly in November.

The electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week. After a month long game period, the market finally broke the ice this week, and the price of electrolytic manganese fell slightly. At present, the mainstream price in China is 15400-15700 yuan/ton. The overall market negotiation is a little cold and the market sentiment is weak. The game psychology of the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. The recent performance of steel recruitment is average, and the market guidance is limited. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

In terms of manganese and silicon: this week, due to the price of 7450 yuan/ton determined by Hegang Group, although it dropped by 100 yuan/ton month on month, it was slightly better than the market expectation. The retail price was firm to more than 7000 yuan/ton, while the futures market was also strong. With an active market inquiry and procurement atmosphere, the silicon and manganese spot market was stable and good this week. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7000-7100 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 7066 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from Monday.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 11, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6850.00 yuan/ton, which was mainly stable compared with the same period last week. The overall DMF market price did not change much. At present, the overall market operation rate is stable, the overall procurement atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the price has a small upward trend.

The domestic DMF price has a stable trend. At present, the mainstream price range is 6900.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is general, the operating rate is stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Chemical commodity index: On November 10, the chemical index was 944 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 32.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.86% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The DMF analyst from the business agency believes that the DMF market is stable and strong in the short term.