According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of February 1, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 6900 yuan/ton, with a one-day increase of 18.97% on January 31, with a price increase of more than 1000 yuan/ton. The domestic DMF market price rose broadly and strongly, with a price increase of 12.2% compared with the same period last month, and a price increase of 20.52% compared with the same period last week. After the holiday, the overall market started at a high level, and the chemical market rose more or fell less, and the market price was at a high level.

The price of domestic DMF market is rising, with a wide rise, with a one-day increase of more than 1000 yuan per ton. The manufacturer has raised the price one after another, and the downstream mentality is confused. At present, replenishment is mainly needed, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market supply is sufficient, and the bullish mentality still exists. After the holiday, the operating rate is high, the installation is stable, and the one-day ultra-high rise is unexpected. The carrier’s mentality is positive, and the driving mood is not reduced, and the high price is frequent.

The upstream methanol market is in a weak position, and as of January 31, the narrow adjustment is the main trend. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 2520-2540 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Henan is 2650-2750 yuan/ton. The trend in the early stage is maintained in the short term, which has little impact on the downstream price.

The DMF commodity index was 113.11 on January 31, up 18.03 points from yesterday, down 63.10% from the cycle’s highest point of 306.56 (2021-10-24), and up 68.29% from the lowest point of 67.21 on February 21, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

DMF analysts of the Business Agency believe that in the short term, DMF will digest the early growth, or there may be a slight decline.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of nitric acid was 2450 yuan/ton on January 1 and 2516 yuan/ton on January 30, with a price increase of 2.72%.

On January 30, Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. produced 150000 concentrated acid annually, and the ex-factory price of 98 concentrated nitric acid was 2550 yuan/ton. The nitric acid market mostly shipped according to orders, and the inquiry gradually warmed up.

During 1.01-1.30, upstream liquid ammonia fell by 9.06%. Downstream aniline fell 2.93%, TDI rose 8.16%, potassium nitrate fell 0.21%, and ammonium nitrate rose 0.47%. Although the upstream liquid ammonia cost fell, the downstream TDI and ammonium nitrate prices rose, and the downstream market was dominated by inquiries. The nitric acid analyst of the business agency predicted that the nitric acid price might be dominated by shocks.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3850.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.59%. It was 15.69% lower than the same period last year. The carbide commodity index on January 15 was 100.87, which was the same as yesterday, down 52.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 81.78% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1450-1800 yuan/ton, and the cost support was average. The market price of PVC rose from 6155.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6216.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.00%. The year-on-year decrease was 24.92%. The PVC market price rose slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide will rise in the aftermarket or in shock

In late January, the carbide market rose mainly in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is good. The downstream PVC market has risen in a narrow range, and the downstream demand has increased. In late January, the price of calcium carbide in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

The price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3175 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The recent downstream demand is poor, and the trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

Supply side: production enterprises will gradually take holidays near the end of the year

The operating rate at the domestic supply side has declined. Although fluorite mines are still tense, mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. However, some fluorite flotation enterprises have stopped for holidays recently, and the purchase orders on the site are not active. Some enterprises still have some inventory. The manufacturers maintain the order price at the early stage, and the fluorite trend is stable.

Demand side: hydrofluoric acid price is temporarily stable, refrigerant market is low

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low this week. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions is 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Although some units in the north have been shut down recently, the hydrofluoric acid units in the south have operated stably, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order is not good. The fluorite purchase is not active, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is less than 30%. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The application field of R22 market is mainly based on demand, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 17000-1900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic R134a declined slightly, the price of trichloroethylene was low, and the focus of R134a trading remained low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton. The demand for refrigerants in winter is weak, and under the pressure of cost and demand, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a are sluggish in the short term, and the demand of the refrigerant industry is poor, which causes the price of fluorite to remain temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panel, etc. In the long run, fluorite market still has some support as the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields pulls.

Aftermarket forecast: the supply of raw fluorite ore is still tight in the near future, but the demand of refrigerant industry is low, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the number of enterprises for holidays is increasing near the end of the year, and the short-term fluorite price remains stable; The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries have developed rapidly, and the demand for new fields has increased. In the long run, the fluorite market still has support.

From December 30 to January 6, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene dropped, from 5486 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5593 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.95%.

Crude oil: In the early morning of January 4, the minutes of the recent meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was still committed to fighting inflation and intended to return the inflation rate to the target range of 2%, which indicated that the interest rate might remain high for a period of time until there was clear evidence that the consumer price index was falling. And according to the data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the end of the meeting on February 1. The continued tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has greatly increased the risk that the United States and major developed economies around the world will fall into recession, which will then depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices. International crude oil futures rebounded on January 5. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 73.67 US dollars/barrel, up 0.83 US dollars or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 78.69 US dollars/barrel, up 0.85 US dollars or 1.1%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton on January 4, 2023, and the current price is 6650 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. After the festival, the crude oil and styrene market strengthened, supporting the market mentality, and adding to the market’s demand for stock before the festival, the pure benzene market rose slightly. Subsequently, Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene to 6650 yuan/ton. The crude oil price fell sharply near the end of the week, dragging down the market mentality, and the price of pure benzene fell again. The price of hydrogenated benzene was boosted by the market at the beginning of the week, driving the ex-factory price of enterprises in North China to 7000-7100 yuan/ton, boosting the market mentality.

The crude benzene market was boosted by the rise of pure benzene at the beginning of the week and the rise of hydrogenation benzene price. This week, the bidding price in Shandong increased by 210 yuan/ton to about 5680 yuan/ton. In terms of coking enterprises, the operating rate increased slightly this week, and the crude benzene supply was slightly loose as a whole. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises increased slightly this week, and some units were restarted, and the demand for crude benzene was moderately supported. In the future, the business agency believes that the current fundamental support is weak, the support of crude oil and pure benzene to the industrial chain is unclear, and the downstream demand performance is fair. In a comprehensive view, the pure benzene industry chain is mixed with good and bad, and there is still a certain demand for pre-holiday stock in the downstream near the holiday, which will bring some support to the market. In the short term, the pure benzene industry chain is operating steadily, moderately and strongly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the actual demand in the downstream.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 33125 yuan/ton, the average price at the weekend was 33250 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.38% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. At present, the start of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan has declined and the market supply has decreased. The yellow phosphorus market is relatively stagnant. After the price rebounded slightly, the downstream market is not enthusiastic about purchasing goods and is cautious about taking goods. Yellow phosphorus enterprises now mainly issue preliminary orders. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 32500-33500 yuan/ton.

As for phosphate rock, as of January 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1056 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. In 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market will not change much, and the overall trend of the market will continue to be stable at the end of 2022. The supply and demand in the market will be calm. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from December 30 to January 6, 2022, the first round of the coke market was raised and dropped. As of January 6, the price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2582 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. This week, the price of coke at ports in Shandong Province was slightly reduced. As of the 6th, the quasi-class ex-warehouse price at ports was around 2680-2720 yuan/ton. The port market was weak, the market inquiry atmosphere was cold, the intention to collect ports was low, and the actual transaction was small. This week, the overall decline of the port freight, the overall change of the port inventory, and the weak enthusiasm of traders to gather at the port led to the overall decline of the freight price. Affected by the first round of lifting and landing, the current port mentality has weakened.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid increased slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 9025 yuan/ton on January 2 and 9050 yuan/ton on January 6, with a slight increase of 0.28% during the week. At present, the phosphoric acid market closely follows the yellow phosphorus market. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will be more wait-and-see and temporarily stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is relatively stagnant, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stable, the coke market price is falling, and the cost support is general. The market price of downstream phosphoric acid was slightly increased. The yellow phosphorus market is light, and the downstream is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will operate stably in the short term.

Ethylene oxide price fell 3.17%

 According to the data of the Business News Agency, the average price of the domestic ethylene oxide spot market on January 9, 2023 was 6100 yuan/ton, down by 200 yuan/ton from the average price of the ethylene oxide spot market on Friday (1.6), down by 3.17%; Compared with the average spot market price of 6800 yuan/ton before the New Year’s Day, it was reduced by 700 yuan/ton.

At present, the listing price of ethylene oxide in all regions of China has been reduced by 500-700 yuan/ton compared with that before the New Year’s Day. The ex-factory listing price of mainstream markets in all regions is as follows:

The external price of ethylene oxide market in East China is 6100 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by some manufacturers is 6400 yuan/ton; The ethylene oxide market in South China is 6100 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide in central China is 6100 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6100 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, the weak downstream demand is the main reason for the weak and stable price of ethylene oxide.

Overview of fundamentals

The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still the same. The actual demand at the end of the terminal starts to move downward near the Spring Festival. The main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer faces the pressure of the Spring Festival holiday, and the construction conditions are insufficient. The demand is expected to move downward. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium-high level, and the enterprise’s enthusiasm for production has declined, and the atmosphere for ethylene oxide procurement is weak. On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, and the price of raw material ethylene has little change. On January 5, the CIF central price in Northeast Asia was 850 US dollars/ton, and the price has moved down. At present, the support of cost is limited.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of raw material ethylene is weak and stable, the terminal demand is weak, and the downstream demand is restrained. The main downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market is facing the Spring Festival holiday, the terminal real estate operating rate is under pressure, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to weaken. It is expected that the relationship between supply and demand will be difficult to reverse in the short term, and ethylene oxide businesses will mainly operate in a weak position.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 4783.33 yuan/ton, up 36.67% year on year. This week, it maintained a relatively stable situation.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1110 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of downstream alumina is stable, the trading atmosphere is relatively light, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the purchase of alumina has come to an end some time ago. Now it is mainly purchased on demand, and the caustic soda is expected to operate in a weak way next week.

According to the analysts of the business community, the purchase volume of flake caustic soda market has decreased significantly, and the trading atmosphere is general. Most of the downstream markets purchase according to needs, and the shipments are general. The attitude of more wait-and-see is dominant, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. In a comprehensive way, the price of flake caustic soda in the short-term or weak consolidation operation market depends on the downstream market demand.

In December, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 31, the domestic cobalt price was 323400 yuan/ton, down 3.20% from 334100 yuan/ton on December 1. The supply and demand of the cobalt market are weak, the decline of the international cobalt price is accelerating, the cobalt salt price is weak, and the domestic cobalt price falls in shock.

MB price fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the MB price trend chart that in December, the MB price fell in shock, the decline of the international cobalt market accelerated, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the domestic cobalt price fell.

Decrease in import of cobalt raw materials

From the trend chart of cobalt raw material import, it can be seen that due to the strike in South Africa ports, domestic cobalt raw materials were insufficient in November. In November, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased significantly year on year, the supply of cobalt market decreased, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices weakened. The upward momentum increased. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the overall supply of cobalt market was sufficient.

Declining demand in cobalt market

In recent years, the performance of mobile phones has been excessive, and the innovation of new products has been reduced, resulting in the lack of mobile energy for consumers. Consumer demand for mobile phones continues to decline, and the domestic smartphone replacement cycle is expected to increase to 34 months. According to the latest report of IDC, it is estimated that in 2023, the shipment volume of China’s mobile phone market will decline 0.9% year on year, narrowing the decline; Although the epidemic prevention policy is relaxed, the national consumption level still needs a recovery period. 3C market consumption is low, and cobalt market demand is low.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the international cobalt price fell in December, the cobalt salt price fell, and the domestic cobalt market was negative. In terms of supply and demand, although the import volume of cobalt raw materials has declined significantly, the demand of cobalt market is sluggish. The supply of cobalt market is still sufficient in the short term, and the support for the rise of cobalt price is insufficient. It is expected that the weak shock of cobalt market will be lowered in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic ethanol market rose first and then fell in December, which was generally upward. From December 1 to 30, the average price of domestic ethanol producers rose from 6812 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.36% and 6.43% year on year.

In December, the price of domestic ethanol market fluctuated greatly, mainly affecting the supply and demand side, with limited support from the cost side. In December, domestic ethanol prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of this month, due to the influence of the epidemic situation, the large factories in Northeast China had a large limit on the delivery of raw materials. Enterprises started to operate less, and prices rose after the supply decreased. On December 7, the state issued 10 epidemic prevention policies, declaring that the epidemic situation in China began to be fully liberalized in three years. Transportation was liberalized, corn sales increased, and the purchase of raw materials of enterprises resumed steadily. Disinfection consumption brought about by the liberalized policy increased sharply in a short period of time. Disinfection procurement in various parts of the country was active, and enterprise quotations continued to rise.

In terms of cost, the business community monitored that the domestic corn price rose first and then fell in December. On December 30, the benchmark price of the third grade yellow corn was 2828.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.44% compared with December 1 (2870.00 yuan/ton). The total supply of domestic corn in the new season will continue to grow. The imported corn has arrived in Hong Kong successively, and the price advantage exists, which is bad for the price trend of corn.

On the supply side, the overall ethanol market is dominated by low load operation, and the load of the main plants in the Northeast is fluctuating downward, reducing the load. The main factories Hongzhannahe and Jixian half load production, the State Investment Fukang half load production, the Wanli device 80% load operation, other devices stable operation. Part of Subei unit is half load production, and Dongcheng, Changxing and Shuyang units are shut down; The production line of the flower hall has shrunk. Ethanol supply is still good.

On the demand side, the downstream chemical industry maintained normal production. In December, the domestic ethyl acetate industry started at 50.83% on a monthly basis, down 6.11% month on month basis. Ethanol was just needed to purchase, while Baijiu was in small quantity, and the disinfection amount remained just needed. The demand for ethanol is intertwined in the medium and long term.

It is predicted that after the closure is lifted, the consumption of disinfection and sterilization will increase; The double festival is approaching, and the demand for Baijiu has recovered; The demand for ethyl acetate in the chemical industry continued to be stable, and the overall on-site demand was significantly boosted. The ethanol analysts of the business association predict that the domestic ethanol market is expected to consolidate and operate in the short term.