According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8050.00 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 4.55% from February 1.

The acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in February. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene rose, the cost support increased, the industry inventory was low, and the downstream market returned, the demand gradually increased, the market inquiry was positive, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation was steadily improved. In the middle and late ten days, the raw material propylene market was shaken and sorted out, and the cost support remained. The supply side production enterprises’ device load was not high, which supported the market rise. The market transaction was just needed. After the rise, the downstream procurement mentality was cautious, the terminal demand followed up slowly, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was general, and the focus of the acrylic acid market negotiation was loose.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the reference price of propylene was 7426.60 on February 27, down 1.38% from February 1 (7530.75).

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the current price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, and the downstream demand is gradually warming up. With the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with February 27, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, or 0.38%.

In early March, the domestic butanone market continued its weak trend at the end of February. This week (2.27-3.3), the domestic butanone market continued to decline slightly. The downstream demand performance of butanone has not improved much this week, while the demand side is still weak. The trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and the attitude of the operators is general. Some butanone suppliers have lowered the delivery price of butanone, and the overall focus of the butanone market has declined slightly around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8300-8700 yuan/ton, and the price at the higher end was around 9000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, although the overall increase of new orders in the butanone market is general, the overall market has entered the downward channel for several days, and the market is expected to continue to decline significantly in the short term. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes in the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly this week. On February 27, the price of pure benzene was 7000-7470 yuan/ton (the average price was 7235 yuan/ton). On Thursday (March 2), the price of pure benzene was 7100-7420 yuan/ton (the average price was 7260 yuan/ton), up 0.69% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

The price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7100 yuan/ton this week (the price in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and the weakening of energy demand, and the short-term market will remain volatile. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of OPEC+’s latest production policy, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Although worried about the possible impact of interest rate hikes in Europe on economic growth, the demand for Indian refineries has reached a record high, and China’s economic data is improving, and international oil prices continue to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 0.47 USD/barrel or 0.60%; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract was 84.75 USD/barrel, up 0.44 USD/barrel or 0.52%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures 2304 fell 1.4 yuan to 554.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.1 yuan to 566.5 yuan/barrel in the evening.

The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue to operate in a weak way in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of steam coal fell first and then rose this month. The energy index stood at 1107 points on February 27, up 9 points from yesterday, down 29.08% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 116.63% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production at the beginning of the month, and the market supply increased, but the market trading atmosphere was general. The price of coal in main producing areas has declined, with the price reduction range ranging from 30-50 yuan/ton. Downstream production resumed, but steam coal was still mainly purchased on demand. The coal mine resumed production at the end of the month, and the market trading atmosphere was high. The number of coal hauling vehicles in the mine increased, and the transaction in the mine was good. In addition, an open-pit coal mine in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region collapsed in a large area, and the coal mine production in the later stage may become more strict, and the coal mine output may be affected.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales at the beginning of the month were average, the market quotation declined, and the enthusiasm for taking goods at the downstream was average, and the transaction was relatively weak. The port price rose in the last ten days, and the market activity increased. The trading and investment atmosphere in the market is fair, and the demand in the downstream increases. In addition, due to the commencement of construction after the year, the demand for steam coal has also increased compared with that before, and the price of steam coal in the port has risen. However, the downstream acceptance is low, and the deviation between the actual transaction and the quotation is large.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the industries above designated size in the whole year, the output of raw coal in 2022 will reach 4.56 billion tons, an increase of 10.5% over the previous year. The annual profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 8403.9 billion yuan, down 4.0% from the previous year. The profit of the mining industry was 1557.4 billion yuan, an increase of 48.6% over the previous year..

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the trading atmosphere in the production area is better than before, and the demand for coal has increased after the commencement of non-electricity demand. In terms of downstream ports, the daily consumption of power plants has also increased, and the shipment of traders is fair. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of steam coal will be stronger in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8447 yuan/ton on February 1, and the average price on February 28 was 8332 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.35% during the period, down 0.71% from January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9216 yuan/ton on February 1 and 9070 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 1.59% during the period, 0.33% lower than the price quoted on January 1.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8566 yuan/ton on February 1 and 8500 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 0.78% during the period, up 0.39% from January 1.

In February, the domestic polyethylene price was dominated by weak operation. LLDPE continued to decline in the first half of the month, and rose and fell in the second half of the month; LDPE’s quotation in the first half of the month was mainly stable, while it rose and fell in the second half of the month; HDPE declined significantly in the first half of the month, and the quotation in the second half was mainly stable. Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have been put into operation successively, and the overall market supply is still loose. Starting from the beginning of February c, the operating rate of downstream enterprises increased, but mainly digested inventory. The market purchasing sentiment was not high, and orders were limited. Traders’ inventory pressure was high, and their prices fell. March is the traditional peak season. The operating rate of agricultural film, packaging film and other plastic downstream products increased, and orders increased.

The domestic polyethylene market has sufficient supply, and the demand for polyethylene market has recovered less than expected after the holiday. March is the traditional peak season, and the market demand is expected to be optimistic. It is expected that polyethylene will increase, but its rising space is limited.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 27, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, down 6.62% from the price of aluminum fluoride of 11325 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Spring Festival, the construction of aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from 3156.25 yuan/ton on February 1; As of February 27, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the price of 10000 yuan/ton on February 1. The price of raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride dropped sharply, and the downward pressure on the price of aluminum fluoride increased.

Electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and fell in February

It can be seen from the price trend chart of electrolytic aluminum of the Business Club that the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18386.67 yuan/ton as of February 27, down 3.13% from the price of 18980 yuan/ton on February 1. After the holiday, the market of electrolytic aluminum recovered somewhat, but the overall market of aluminum was less than expected. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell under great pressure.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of the Business Society, the aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed their operations in February, and the supply of aluminum fluoride increased. The price trend of aluminum fluoride depends on the cost of raw materials and the demand for aluminum fluoride; In terms of raw materials, the price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell in February. In terms of demand, the market of electrolytic aluminum was lower than expected, the market of industrial chain was still weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor. In the future, the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak due to the decline in the cost of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

The price of DOP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of DOP was 9960 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the price of 9920 yuan/ton on February 17. Cost pressure remains, and the DOP market rose slightly this week.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on February 17. Downstream demand is still weak. Downstream customers mostly replenish stocks on Monday and Tuesday. With the increase of replenishing stocks, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted this week. The cost support of DOP raw materials still exists, and the power of DOP price rise still exists.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 24, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.50 yuan/ton on February 17. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, while the upward momentum of DOP remained.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, rose slightly this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride remained high, and the cost of DOP rose; The demand side support is limited, and the downstream is more likely to follow the fall to cover the stock. The DOP is mixed, and there is still a downside risk in the short term. In the future, DOP cost shock and consolidation demand support is limited, and DOP price shock and consolidation are expected.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 22, 2023, the market price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 8966 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, or 11.16%. On February 22, the domestic market price of propylene glycol was around 8800-9300 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that from February to now (2.1-2.22), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a steady upward trend. The main driving force supporting the continuous rise of the propylene glycol market is mainly from the joint support of raw material cost, on-site supply side inventory and demand. Let’s look at the supply, cost and demand of propylene glycol from February to now.

In terms of cost: the market of propylene oxide as raw material keeps rising, the support given by the cost of propylene glycol keeps increasing, and the focus of the propylene glycol market keeps getting closer.

In terms of supply: At present, domestic propylene glycol pre-holiday maintenance devices have been started in succession, and some factories mainly deliver export orders in the early stage, so the overall inventory of propylene glycol in the field is relatively controllable.

Demand: In February, the downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was gradually released. After the digestion of some downstream raw materials, the demand for propylene glycol market performed well at the stage, and the overall demand for propylene glycol was given some support.

Future trend analysis

At present, with the gradual warming of the weather, the downstream demand of the terminal will gradually recover. The propylene glycol field operators have expectations. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly continue to run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

From February 10 to February 17, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased by a narrow margin, from 5593 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5681 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.57%.

The crude oil in the week of February 17 fell for four consecutive trading days. The core logic is the supply and demand game under the influence of macro pressure, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is intensified. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $76.55/barrel, down US $2.19 or 2.8%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.00/barrel, down US $2.14 or 2.5%. The market is worried that further interest rate hikes in the United States will drag down demand, and the oil market will suffer from a sharp increase in crude oil and refined oil storage. On the macro level, the US economic data showed strong performance, and the Fed officials made many statements to show hawkish behavior. The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 14th showed that the inflation situation in the United States rebounded in January, with CPI rising 6.4% year on year. The month-on-month increase was 0.5%, the highest since October 2022. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth exceeded the market consensus. The market worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates are rampant, which brings pressure to the crude oil market. According to the crude oil analysts of Business News, in the short term, the negative feedback of the market to the macro pressure is gradually digested, and the oil market’s falling space may be narrowed. The game between supply and demand will continue to dominate the market. In the future, the supply side needs to pay attention to the actual implementation of the re-release of reserves in the United States, and the demand side needs to pay attention to China’s crude oil imports and refined oil consumption.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2023, and the current price is 6950 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7330 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly recovered at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly decreased from October to December, and recovered in January and fluctuated in February.

In the aspect of industrial chain: the price of pure benzene market this week was mainly volatile. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene market rose slightly under the boost of styrene market. The market negotiation atmosphere was good, the trading was positive, and there was a certain deal in the market. After the continuous decline of crude oil in the middle and late stages, the market mentality was dragged down, and the styrene market weakened. Under the dual impact, the pure benzene market was weak, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement slowed down, the overall market was weak, and the price declined slightly. The hydrogenation benzene market was mainly weak this week under the influence of the continuous decline of crude oil and the trend of the industrial chain, and the price of the main production area fell to about 6800 yuan/ton.

The crude benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week, with a slight increase. The main production area in Shandong Province is 5750 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly this week, and crude benzene supply was slightly loose. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market is still in operation, and the demand for crude benzene still exists. This week’s slight price increase was mainly affected by the overall high and volatile operation of the industrial chain. In general, crude benzene demand still exists, but the recent trend of crude oil fluctuates greatly, and the market guidance is insufficient. The price of hydrogenation benzene market is slightly down this week under the pressure of the downstream. It is expected that the crude benzene price will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. The future market will focus on the impact of the trend of basic products such as crude oil and styrene on the market mentality.

This week, the lead market (2.10-217) fluctuated and fell. The average price of the domestic market was 15235 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and 15030 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.35%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, in terms of the macro aspect of the week, the U.S. CPI data in January fell less than expected, while the PPI data growth exceeded expectations, and the overall performance of the economic data was poor. The upward metal market of the US dollar index was generally under pressure. Affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s continuous holiday, the futures market was volatile and fell during the week. Lun Lead fell more than 1%, with an operating range of 2020-2120 US dollars/ton, while Shanghai Lead fell 1.46%, with an operating range of 15050-15400 yuan/ton.

The spot market was generally down this week, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic market was relatively strong. With the end of the holiday, the smelter has basically resumed normal production. At present, the overall operation is relatively stable, and the renewable lead is also basically on the right track. However, due to the impact of corporate profits, the current operating rate of renewable lead is low, the overall supply of lead ingots is relatively stable, and the domestic stock accumulation is relatively obvious. In terms of demand, downstream battery enterprises have slightly increased their demand for lead ingots, but the overall demand for lead ingots is still based on demand. In general, the lead ingot market has basically returned to normal operation, and the market supply and demand have increased. This week, the price has declined under the dual impact of the macro superimposed inventory. It is expected that the future market will still remain volatile, mainly focusing on the macro impact.

February 17, 2022 London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory 25000 tons (unit: tons)

The non-ferrous index stood at 1175 points on February 19, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.60% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 93.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were three commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 7th week of 2023 (2.13-2.17). The top three commodities were titanium concentrate (2.09%), copper (1.46%) and antimony (0.58%). A total of 19 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, with dysprosium oxide (- 4.44%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 4.25%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 4.00%) among the top three products. This week’s average rise and fall was -1.44%.