1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine kept stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 45800 yuan/ton, down 27.14% year on year. On December 11, the bromine commodity index was 160.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.46% from the highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 172.74% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The bromine price was stable this week. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have recently started to maintain low load, and the multi-dimensional industry mainly needs to purchase. Bromine manufacturers often park their cars, mainly consume inventory, and play a game between supply and demand. Bromine manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship, and have the intention of stabilizing prices.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1483.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1513.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 2.02%, down 21.72% year on year. The downstream ammonium phosphate market is relatively strong, which supports the sulfur better. The terminal phosphate fertilizer is steadily promoted, the enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the short-term sulfur market is organized and operated.

According to the analysts of the business community, the price of bromine has temporarily stabilized in the near future, while the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties are playing a game. Bromine enterprises are interested in stabilizing the price and are not in a hurry to ship. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices are stabilizing this week

According to the data of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12250 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on December 4 and 12250 yuan/ton on December 1. The cost is strong and stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose sharply this week. As of December 9, the price of fluorite was 3375 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the price of 3318.75 yuan/ton on December 4, and up 2.47% from the price of 3293.75 yuan/ton on December 1; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. As of December 9, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from 12742.86 yuan/ton on December 4, and up 0.22% from 12728.57 yuan/ton on December 1. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week, the rising trend of raw material prices slowed down, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the business community, the price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week, and the rising trend of aluminum fluoride cost slowed down. In general, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride in the future will be strong and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 37250 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32625 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 12.42%..

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The yellow phosphorus market was light in the first ten days of this month, with poor market demand and limited turnover of new orders. The yellow phosphorus manufacturer’s inventory increased, the market price fell sharply, and the manufacturer basically did not make external quotation. The yellow phosphorus enterprise negotiated according to the price situation, and negotiated the price one by one. From the middle of the month, the price continued to drop to a low of 27500 yuan/ton, and the market price dropped by 10000 yuan compared with 37250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At this time, traders bought at the bottom, the downstream actively replenished goods, and trading increased. The yellow phosphorus market emerged from nowhere. The market price rebounded and rose, and then stabilized. The market started to be light at the end of the day, and the downstream was cautious in receiving orders and purchasing at a lower price. The manufacturer’s price decreased slightly, stimulating downstream and traders to purchase, the market improved and the pressure on shipment was relieved. Near the end of the month, the manufacturer’s intention of low price shipment was low, and the market price rose again. As of November 28, the manufacturer’s quotation was 32000-33000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. On November 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1054 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2 yuan/ton, or 0.16%. At present, the phosphate fertilizer market at the downstream terminal of phosphate rock has warmed up compared with the previous period, which will provide a certain psychological support for phosphate rock from the bottom to the bottom. In addition, the supply side will continue to support. The phosphate rock datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of decline and one round of increase in November. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2400 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a monthly drop of 7.69%. Since November, the steel price has always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills have fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate is at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. The lack of demand to support coke prices has dropped for three consecutive rounds, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 yuan/ton. As the coke market has dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal is higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and the profits have been damaged. The coking enterprises have launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 yuan/ton. In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain is in a seasonal off-season as a whole. The business community expects the coke market to be bullish in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.

On the demand side, phosphoric acid prices fell in November. On November 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 9420 yuan/ton, and on November 28, the average price was 8612.5 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 8.57%. The overall market price fell mainly. At present, downstream manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, fearing that once they buy, they will continue to decline, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the recovery of yellow phosphorus price at the end of the month, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will be stable and good in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The market demand is light, the price of yellow phosphorus once fell to near the cost price, and the downstream and traders bought at the bottom, so the yellow phosphorus market improved and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus rebounded again, considering the cost of next month. It is reported that the electricity price may be raised again next month, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price when the cost increases. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be stable in the short term, supplemented by a small increase. In addition, the transportation in some regions is not smooth at present, and there is uncertainty about the market, so we should pay attention to the future market.

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped sharply this month. The price of isooctanol dropped from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.36%. A year-on-year decrease of 23.61%.

On November 29, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, down 1.72 points from yesterday, down 50.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 91.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose first and then fell this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is increased, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose slightly this month, with the propylene price rising from 7036.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7540.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 1.01% year on year. The cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol. Downstream DOP prices fell in shock. The DOP price dropped from 10150.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.48%, 13.23% YoY compared with the same period last year. Downstream market fell slightly, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol weakened.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic isooctanol market may rise by a small amplitude, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and there was an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8550 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8616 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 66 yuan/ton, or 0.77%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market fell slightly in early December (12.01-12.05). Recently, the shipping price of n-propanol of Shandong Dachang decreased slightly, driving the overall market focus downward. In terms of cost, in December, the cost support for n-propanol was loose due to the downward trend of raw material market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly the purchase of rigid demand, and the overall support of the demand side is general. On December 5, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8100-8550 yuan/ton. The barreled market price is around 9100-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, many places across the country have received good macro news. The market circulation in many places has changed a lot compared with the previous period, and the mentality of the industry has changed. Although the n-propanol market is generally supported on the supply and demand side, the n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that, under the good atmosphere of the general environment, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market can mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the risk of a sharp decline in the market is small. More attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side for the specific trend.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market price fluctuated and fell in November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of maleic anhydride as of November 30 was 7000.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 6.42% from 7480.00 yuan/ton on November 1.

On November 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 65.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.38% from the highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 28.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market continued to shut down. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to shut down in December. At the beginning of the month, it is in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continues to fall. The resin is operated cautiously and mainly purchased on demand. At the end of the month, the logistics in many places across the country was blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in major factories was sufficient. However, Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers began to close their doors and wait. Shandong manufacturers reduced their production, and the price of maleic anhydride showed an upward trend. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 6750 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7200 yuan/ton.

In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.

In November, the hydrogenation benzene market showed a downward trend. The ex factory price in North China was 7733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 10.56% month on month. The hydrogenation benzene market as a whole is still weak in the near future. The performance of crude oil and styrene is still weak. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Affected by the decline of pure benzene, the price of hydrogenation benzene continues to decline. There are some bargain hunting purchases in the market, and the deal is fair. In terms of supply, East China has a relatively sufficient supply of imported goods, which has a certain drag on the market mentality.

3、 Future market forecast

Maleic anhydride product analysts from the business community believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in November. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market suffers from a serious deficit in benzene oxidation process. The factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to stop in December. In the first ten days of this year, it was in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continued to fall. The resin was operated cautiously, and it was mainly purchased on demand. At present, the logistics in many places across the country is blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the main factories is sufficient. However, the manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have begun to close the offer and wait, while the production of Shandong manufacturers has decreased, and the price has an upward trend at the end of the month. Maleic anhydride market is expected to rise in the near future.

The market of dichloromethane was weak in late November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2272 yuan/ton, 7.72% lower than 2462 yuan/ton on November 21, and the low point in the cycle was 2237 yuan/ton. As of the 30th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2200 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton.

The pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane remained in late November.

In late November, the spot market of methanol fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of dichloromethane did not change much. According to the business community, as of November 30, the spot price of methanol was 2768 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from 2793 yuan/ton on November 21, with a high point of 2811 yuan/ton and a low point of 2751 yuan/ton.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and sales. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the sales of refrigerants are low; The demand of film, thinner and pharmaceutical industries is weak, and the transaction of methylene chloride market is generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12242.86 yuan/ton, 10.30% higher than the price of 11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 12.74% year on year.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 12200-12600 yuan/ton. Recently, the epidemic situation in some northern regions has been repeated, some devices have been stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. Some manufacturers in the south maintained that overall, the operating rate of hydrofluoric acid declined and the supply of goods was tight, which affected the price trend to rise.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material fluorite continues to rise. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the price of 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the export volume of fluorite has increased significantly. With the decline of temperature, the production enterprises in the north have stopped working, the supply of fluorite is very tight, the price of fluorite continues to rise, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen significantly due to the cost.

Demand side: The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is normal. The demand in the application field of R22 market is guaranteed, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has declined slightly, the trichloroethylene price has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The R134a trading center has declined slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. The price of hydrofluoric acid market has risen greatly supported by the strong cost.

Future market forecast: the upstream supply of fluorite is tight, the fluorite price continues to rise, coupled with the shutdown of some hydrofluoric acid devices for maintenance, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, and the downstream refrigerant product price is temporarily stable. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to rise in the future.

This week (November 19 to November 26), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 17250 yuan/ton last weekend and 17250 yuan/ton this weekend, unchanged.

Manganese ore: This week, the trend of the manganese ore market was different from north to south. Tianjin Port maintained a weak operation, and there were not many inquiries on the whole. At the beginning of the week, the ore price gradually loosened from 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton, until Thursday, when the futures volume rose and the external quotation rose, the confidence of the spot market slightly increased, and the low price sales decreased; The quotation of Qinzhou Port manganese ore continues to be firm. Downstream manufacturers mostly purchase on demand. The supply of high-grade oxidized ore is small and concentrated. In addition to the strong upward trend of silicon manganese futures in recent days, the quotation of oxidized ore on Friday rose again, about 1 yuan/ton higher than the quotation at the beginning of the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, and fell slightly in November.

The price of electrolytic manganese market is temporarily stable this week. At present, the price of mainstream market is 15,600-15,800 yuan/ton, which is slightly improved compared with the previous period. The market has a strong attitude of price fixing. Some enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing, and they are reluctant to sell. In terms of supply, under the call for production reduction, the recent operating rate is still low, the market supply is limited, and some quotations are high, but the overall transaction is limited, and the game psychology of both the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. In terms of steel recruitment, the performance was average, the price was higher than in the early stage, and the market mentality was slightly improved. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese and silicon: This week, the demand of silicon manganese market was weak, and the news of steel mills stopping production and reducing production kept coming out. On the other hand, some factories said that there were not many stocks in stock, and the industry was more resistant to low prices. Under the mixed information, the silicon manganese alloy market was deadlocked, and the actual transaction price was slightly adjusted. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7050-7150 yuan/ton on November 25, The average market price was 7083 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from Monday.

The price of domestic fluorite rose slightly. As of the 25th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3218.75 yuan/ton, 0.59% higher than the price of 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: the mine is difficult to start and the spot supply is tight

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. With the decline of temperature, fluorite enterprises in the north are gradually stopped, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, the epidemic situation in some areas is serious, fluorite transportation is difficult, fluorite supply is very tight, and fluorite prices rise slightly.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market rose, refrigerant market temporarily stabilized

The price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of the 25th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 12071.43 yuan/ton. This week, the price rose by 6.42%. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose. In some northern regions, the epidemic situation was repeated, some devices were stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was reduced. The rising price of hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price rose slightly.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly, and the market supply is normal. The demand for R22 in the application field of the market is guaranteed, and the market price of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, the cost support is still in place, and the R134a trading focus remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises have entered a production suspension period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a high stock mood. New energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the long-term demand for fluorite. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that fluorite market prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.