This week (3.20-24), the domestic ammonia market continued to decline, with prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu dropping to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of Friday, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 3.24%, which was slower than last week. The main supply performance is tolerant, and under the pressure of accumulated inventory, enterprises continue to adjust and reduce, adding to the negative agricultural demand window, resulting in a continuous decline in prices due to the imbalance between market supply and demand. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3900-4050 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers continues to pick up, especially in the northern region, where manufacturers and devices operate normally. Large factories have accumulated inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously reduce their listing prices. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, manufacturers in Shandong generally lowered their listing prices by 100-200 yuan/ton during the week. Many devices in the southern region have resumed production, and the supply increase has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the ammonia market reversed its previous supply shortage situation in the last ten days. On the one hand, agricultural demand turned weak, and industrial demand could not follow up in a timely manner. Since the middle of the month, the price of liquid ammonia has gradually fallen from its high point. In terms of downstream urea, according to monitoring by the Business News Agency, urea continued its decline, with a weekly decline of 0.31%. Due to the withdrawal of agricultural demand and the end of the peak season of returning green fertilizer, the procurement volume of composite fertilizer and board market declined. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remained negative. In particular, the price of liquefied natural gas has fallen by 3.58% this week, following a sharp 7.3% drop last week. The sharp decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on southwest gas head ammonia companies, providing ammonia companies with conditions for price reduction sales under the generally light market volume. The coal market has maintained a weak range of adjustment, with prices hovering at a relatively low level. Overall, the negative pressure on the cost side of the ammonia market is high.

Future Forecast:

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that from the supply side, the decline in ammonia prices has decreased this week, and some ammonia companies may switch to urea production or alleviate the supply pressure in the ammonia market. The downward space for the future ammonia market is limited. In the future, the demand side will still face pressure, with agricultural demand stagnating and industrial demand lagging behind. Therefore, supply and demand are still weak in the near future. Adding to the negative impact of downstream pressure on upstream feed gas, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a weak volatility pattern in the short term.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was flat compared to the price of 4380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend has been stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices have been operating stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site has been normal, and the situation of goods on the site is normal. The manufacturer’s inventory is not high, and the price trend of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal has declined. In addition, the price trend of nitric acid has been stable, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is normal, and the procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is average. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started operations high, and the recent price of ammonium nitrate is still mainly stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China this week is temporarily stable, with the average domestic nitric acid price of 2466.67 yuan/ton as of the 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 2466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants has been stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market has been normal, and the on-site shipment situation is good. Recently, the price trend of nitric acid in the market has been stable, and the stable price of raw material nitric acid is beneficial to the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia declined this week, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 3983.33 yuan/ton as of the weekend, down 4.17% from 4156.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu have all declined. Recently, maintenance enterprises in central and southern China have concentrated on resuming production of devices, resulting in a surge in supply, which is compounded by a negative agricultural demand window. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market has led to a significant price decline. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3900-4000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of around 200 yuan/ton. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand in the downstream civil explosive industry has weakened, the price trend of liquid ammonia market has declined, the price trend of nitric acid has temporarily stabilized, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst from the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the butadiene market first rose and then fell, and overall declined. From March 10th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 9166 yuan/ton to 9041 yuan/ton, with a 1.36% drop in price during the cycle. The price fell 8.39% month on month and 10.59% year on year.

At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s external quotation was raised, which once boosted the mentality of businesses. However, with the production of Dongming Petrochemical Unit and the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2, the market supply has increased significantly, while the main downstream Chuanhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant contradiction between supply and demand, and the butadiene market has turned downward.

In terms of cost and crude oil, international crude oil has plummeted continuously, with Brent falling by more than 10%. The impact of pessimism has spread, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. In terms of naphtha, the Shandong naphtha market rose and fell, causing a downward trend. Negative impact on butadiene cost.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene in Sinopec’s sales companies rose first and then fell, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton and a execution of 9100 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 t/a butadiene extraction unit has been operating steadily, with 900 tons of supply for secondary bidding and export, with a bidding base price of 8000 yuan/ton; The transaction price is at 8220 yuan/ton. The butadiene supply side showed a negative impact.

On the demand side, the main downstream of butadiene showed a downward trend, with the largest decline in nitrile rubber being 400 yuan/ton. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external market: On March 16th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB South Korea quoted 1145-1155 US dollars per ton, down 30 US dollars per ton; China CFR reported a decrease of $20 per ton from $1175-1185 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 845-855 USD/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 875-885 euros per ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing Price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea./ US $1145-1155/ton/ -30 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ 1175-1185 USD/ton/ -$20/ton

Europe and the United States/ FOB Rotterdam/ 845-855 USD/ton/ $0/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 875-885 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the device will be restarted and new capacity will be put into production, while the downstream product market will decline. Butadiene analysts from the Business Agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.

Overview of 441 # silicon price trend

This week, the spot price of metal silicon remained weak, with a decline of around 300-400 yuan/ton, which was somewhat larger than last week. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 17230 yuan/ton, down 2.43% on a weekly basis. In the spot market, downstream demand is poor, manufacturers’ bearish sentiment increases, and high inventories lead to low price selling. The futures market fell significantly this week, falling 4.95% to close at 16120 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17100-17300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 17100-17300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 16900-17000 yuan/ton, with an average of 16950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17000-17100 yuan/ton, with an average of 17050 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 17700-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17750 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price of Metallic Silicon

On the supply side:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 341. As of March 17, it is understood that the silicon metal furnace opening rate was about 47.63%, with 157 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 27 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 55 furnaces opened in Yunnan.

Demand:

After rising, polysilicon stabilized, with the mainstream range reaching 20.0-2.20 million/ton, and the domestic supply price generally declined by 5000 yuan/ton. The supply side has not changed much, and the operating rate of the enterprise has maintained a medium to high level. One enterprise is engaged in device maintenance.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation was 18700 yuan/ton. The demand in the downstream automotive terminal industry is poor, and there is no significant improvement in the start of aluminum alloy construction, and the procurement of metal silicon remains in just demand.

The domestic silicone DMC market as a whole has shown a continuous weak decline, with a market price reference of 16440 yuan/ton. The overall downstream demand is weak, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the lack of follow-up on new orders is difficult to support the relatively high price of silicone DMC after its early rise. Organosilicon factories are again facing pressure to lose money, and monomer factories may reduce production again, reducing the demand for industrial silicon.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand for metallic silicon is fierce, and downstream demand is poor. This week, the prices of polysilicon, aluminum alloy, and organosilicon DMC have all decreased, and the negative feedback pressure of demand continues to transmit to metallic silicon. At the same time, the weekly opening of the supply end has increased slightly, and the output continues to increase. As the pressure for silicon factories to go to the warehouse is high, it is expected that metal silicon will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has increased significantly this week, with the average market price rising from 176.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 198.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 12.50%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 41.98%. On March 19th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index stood at 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26), and up 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support is good, while downstream procurement is average

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose sharply this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has increased significantly, and cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price decreased slightly, dropping from 1902.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1877.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.31%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 20.06%; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, with a decrease of 0.21% from 1205.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1202.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week. Overall, upstream support is good, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Aftermarket Forecast

In late March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may mainly fall in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has slightly declined, while the ammonium chloride market has slightly declined, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid has been mainly subject to a small fluctuation and decline in recent years.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the isopropanol market fell in a volatile manner this week. Last Friday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6890 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.58% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market for isopropanol fluctuated and fell. At present, the market situation is general, and downstream buying operations are cautious, more wait-and-see, and primarily on demand. The price of acetone rose this week, with acceptable cost support. Up to now, most quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6600-6900 yuan/ton; Most quotations for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

Regarding raw material acetone, the acetone market rose this week. Last Friday, the average price of acetone in Shandong was 6080 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 6210 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 2.14%. Spot supply continues to be tight, traders’ offers continue to be strong and upward, and terminal demand has not significantly improved. Procurement is mainly based on demand.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell this week. Last Friday, the average price of propylene in Shandong was 7464.6 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 7300.6 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was reduced by 2.2%. Currently, the price of propylene in the market is low, and the downstream is mostly wait-and-see, just in need of procurement.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has increased, while the price of propylene has decreased. The support for raw materials is acceptable, while downstream demand is relatively light, procurement is cautious, and there is more wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the stable operation of the isopropanol market will prevail.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall market turnover was stable this week, the manufacturer’s shipment volume was not large, the quotation was maintained, and the goods in some regions showed signs of weakness, and the market mentality continued to wait and see. As of March 10, the average market price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 13200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, down 8.81% year-on-year. The average market price of polyester and cotton yarn was 17560 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week, down 17.40% year-on-year.

This week, the overall volume of yarn market was stable, the manufacturer’s shipment volume was small, the quotation was maintained, the center of gravity was stable, and there were signs of weakening in some regions. The market mentality was cautious and hard to hide. In the near future, domestic fast sales orders have been delivered in a large number, and some yarn mills have arranged orders for machines until May. There are many orders for sample development and small orders, but the quantity of export orders and long-term demand orders is insufficient. The market’s subsequent power is doubtful, and enterprises are worried about the future market. There is differentiation in the performance of textile enterprises. Some textile enterprises have long orders, and some textile enterprises have few orders. Orders for woven and knitted polyester yarn are flexible, and some eddy current yarns are mainly sold at low prices. At present, the level of spinning costs is still low, and the profits of textile enterprises are falling.

This week, the transaction of pure polyester yarn was still light, the market changed little, and the price remained stable. The trading atmosphere of polyester yarn in Xiaoshao area is flat, of which the 32s and 50s markets are not smooth, compared with the 45s trading volume, which is mainly used for woven production of polyester cotton lining series. At present, on the market, woven T21S is priced at 11000-11300 yuan/ton ex-factory including tax, and the transaction is negotiable. The price of pure polyester yarn in Fujian has been consolidated. The focus of T32S negotiation is around 11500, including short delivery of tax. The price of some traders is low, and the goods are generally sold. The price of pure polyester yarn in Jiangxi was maintained and the goods were weak. The polyester and cotton yarn is generally sold, the price remains stable, and the turnover is not large. In Fujian, TC65/35 32S overpaid 16000-16300 yuan/ton, a lower 15800 yuan; CVC60/40 32S reported 1900-19500 yuan/ton, which was 18800 yuan lower.

This week, crude oil futures continued to fluctuate, and the polyester staple fiber market continued to fluctuate. The fall in the price of short-term polyester raw materials weakened the staple fiber cost support, and it is expected to be weak in the short term. Zheng cotton futures fluctuated little, and the bearish atmosphere of forward cotton prices appeared. The overall transaction of cotton spot was light, and only a few cotton merchants had relatively good spot shipments. Textile enterprises had low acceptance of high-price cotton, and textile enterprises had low orders. The instability of raw materials also makes traders unstable and lack confidence in replenishment.

Downstream grey fabric market shipments were slow, new orders from weaving mills were few, and the prices of conventional products were low. This year, the market situation in Guangdong is slightly better than that in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and domestic demand is better than export market. The downstream printing and dyeing factory can process the products, and the delivery time is 7 days or more.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the market continues to be weak, the transaction is poor, the order execution of some cotton mills ends, the inventory pressure increases, the price of some specifications falls, and there are low-price resources. The price of polyester yarn fluctuates with raw materials, and it is difficult to rise or fall. If the downstream fabric and clothing exports are not improved, the pressure of the yarn mill is difficult to reduce, and it is expected that there will be a moderate adjustment trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic MTBE market continued to rise. From March 6 to 10, the price of MTBE rose from 7170 yuan/ton to 7412 yuan/ton, with a 3.38% increase in price during the cycle, a 7.06% month-on-month increase in price and a 8.89% year-on-year decrease. Due to the overhaul of some devices in Shandong Province and the export orders of some factories, the spot supply was once significantly reduced, the effect of tight supply and price rise was boosted, and the merchants actively pushed up the price. The price increase of enterprises in the week was about 50-200 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost and crude oil: the international oil price fell, and the main negative factors were: the market worried that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates or turn to more aggressive strategies, which would put pressure on the economy and demand. MTBE cost side is temporarily negative.

On the demand side, as the weather warms, the demand for gasoline follows up and the demand for raw materials continues. MTBE demand is obviously positive.

As of the close of March 9, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by 1.50 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 946.99-948.99 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by US $8.50/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB ARA closed at US $1000.99-1001.49/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by 14.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 1187.46-1187.82 US dollars/ton (334.50-334.60 US cents/gallon).

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Singapore/ 946.99-948.99 USD/ton./1.5 USD/ton

Europe/ FOB ARA./ 1000.99-1001.49 USD/ton./8.5 USD/ton

United States/ FOB Bay/ 1187.46-1187.82 dollars/ton./14.66 dollars/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the spot supply will gradually shrink, the gasoline sales will be OK, and the downstream demand will remain. The MTBE analysts of the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The year-on-year decrease was 17.72%. The carbide commodity index on March 12 was 91.27, which was the same as yesterday, down 56.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 64.48% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. This week, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1300-1400 yuan/ton, and the cost support is average. The market price of PVC fell by 0.35% from 6246.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6225.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The year-on-year decline was 30.83%. The PVC market price fell slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In the middle and late March, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the middle and late March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is stable and wait-and-see. From March 6 to 10, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China remained at 9516 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% and a year-on-year drop of 18.43%. The raw material pure benzene is relatively strong, and the cost support is good. At the same time, some cyclohexanone shipments are reduced, and the supply is good, but the terminal demand is weak. The downstream chemical fiber just needs to follow up, and the transaction is average.

In terms of cost, the domestic market price of pure benzene has risen, and Sinopec’s pure benzene has been listed twice for an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The spot transaction in East China was 7280-7320 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong Refinery was 7220-7260 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The supply side of cyclohexanone in the short term is difficult to have positive factors.

On the demand side, the price of caprolactam was basically stable, and the upstream pure benzene market maintained a rising trend. However, the overall supply of caprolactam is slightly loose, and the market atmosphere is relatively cautious. The downstream polymerization plants basically maintain the pace of on-demand procurement, and the spot transaction of caprolactam is stable. The demand for cyclohexanone has not changed significantly.

According to the future forecast, the supply of commodity volume in the market is small and the terminal demand is weak. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market was dominated by fluctuations.