In December, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 31, the domestic cobalt price was 323400 yuan/ton, down 3.20% from 334100 yuan/ton on December 1. The supply and demand of the cobalt market are weak, the decline of the international cobalt price is accelerating, the cobalt salt price is weak, and the domestic cobalt price falls in shock.

MB price fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the MB price trend chart that in December, the MB price fell in shock, the decline of the international cobalt market accelerated, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the domestic cobalt price fell.

Decrease in import of cobalt raw materials

From the trend chart of cobalt raw material import, it can be seen that due to the strike in South Africa ports, domestic cobalt raw materials were insufficient in November. In November, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased significantly year on year, the supply of cobalt market decreased, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices weakened. The upward momentum increased. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the overall supply of cobalt market was sufficient.

Declining demand in cobalt market

In recent years, the performance of mobile phones has been excessive, and the innovation of new products has been reduced, resulting in the lack of mobile energy for consumers. Consumer demand for mobile phones continues to decline, and the domestic smartphone replacement cycle is expected to increase to 34 months. According to the latest report of IDC, it is estimated that in 2023, the shipment volume of China’s mobile phone market will decline 0.9% year on year, narrowing the decline; Although the epidemic prevention policy is relaxed, the national consumption level still needs a recovery period. 3C market consumption is low, and cobalt market demand is low.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the international cobalt price fell in December, the cobalt salt price fell, and the domestic cobalt market was negative. In terms of supply and demand, although the import volume of cobalt raw materials has declined significantly, the demand of cobalt market is sluggish. The supply of cobalt market is still sufficient in the short term, and the support for the rise of cobalt price is insufficient. It is expected that the weak shock of cobalt market will be lowered in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic ethanol market rose first and then fell in December, which was generally upward. From December 1 to 30, the average price of domestic ethanol producers rose from 6812 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.36% and 6.43% year on year.

In December, the price of domestic ethanol market fluctuated greatly, mainly affecting the supply and demand side, with limited support from the cost side. In December, domestic ethanol prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of this month, due to the influence of the epidemic situation, the large factories in Northeast China had a large limit on the delivery of raw materials. Enterprises started to operate less, and prices rose after the supply decreased. On December 7, the state issued 10 epidemic prevention policies, declaring that the epidemic situation in China began to be fully liberalized in three years. Transportation was liberalized, corn sales increased, and the purchase of raw materials of enterprises resumed steadily. Disinfection consumption brought about by the liberalized policy increased sharply in a short period of time. Disinfection procurement in various parts of the country was active, and enterprise quotations continued to rise.

In terms of cost, the business community monitored that the domestic corn price rose first and then fell in December. On December 30, the benchmark price of the third grade yellow corn was 2828.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.44% compared with December 1 (2870.00 yuan/ton). The total supply of domestic corn in the new season will continue to grow. The imported corn has arrived in Hong Kong successively, and the price advantage exists, which is bad for the price trend of corn.

On the supply side, the overall ethanol market is dominated by low load operation, and the load of the main plants in the Northeast is fluctuating downward, reducing the load. The main factories Hongzhannahe and Jixian half load production, the State Investment Fukang half load production, the Wanli device 80% load operation, other devices stable operation. Part of Subei unit is half load production, and Dongcheng, Changxing and Shuyang units are shut down; The production line of the flower hall has shrunk. Ethanol supply is still good.

On the demand side, the downstream chemical industry maintained normal production. In December, the domestic ethyl acetate industry started at 50.83% on a monthly basis, down 6.11% month on month basis. Ethanol was just needed to purchase, while Baijiu was in small quantity, and the disinfection amount remained just needed. The demand for ethanol is intertwined in the medium and long term.

It is predicted that after the closure is lifted, the consumption of disinfection and sterilization will increase; The double festival is approaching, and the demand for Baijiu has recovered; The demand for ethyl acetate in the chemical industry continued to be stable, and the overall on-site demand was significantly boosted. The ethanol analysts of the business association predict that the domestic ethanol market is expected to consolidate and operate in the short term.

In December 2022, the domestic market of 1 # lead ingot will fluctuate upward. The average price of the domestic market will be 15570 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15955 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.47%.

On December 28, the nonferrous index stood at 1219 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 20.74% from 1538 points (2021-10-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.82% from 607 points, the lowest point on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After entering September, the lead ingot market began to recover. The peak season ended in late November, and the lead price declined.

In December, the lead ingot market had a volatile trend in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, the lead ingot market rose significantly due to macro factors. The overall trend was volatile and upward. Near the end of the year, the market trading was slightly cold and weak when the market was high. In terms of supply, both the original lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, so the operating rate has not changed much in the near future, and the overall lead supply is sufficient. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, the battery production industry entered a seasonal slack season, with the operating rate of storage enterprises declining significantly, and the demand for lead ingots also declined. In general, the lead ingot market has entered the seasonal slack season, and the lead market shows weak demand. The short-term trend continues to follow the fluctuation of macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

This week, the lead market (12.16-12.23) moved up in a volatile way. The average price of the domestic market was 15435 yuan/ton last weekend and 15715 yuan/ton this weekend, up 1.81%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season, the price has weakened.

In terms of futures market, Lun Lead rose in a volatile range of 2140-2290 US dollars/ton this week. The market became more worried about the subsequent interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, and the macro market fluctuated greatly, driving the market up. Lun Lead’s inventory has been temporarily stable for 10 consecutive trading days. Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week, with a range of 15450-15880 yuan/ton. On Wednesday, the news that the People’s Bank of China strengthened the implementation of the prudent monetary policy boosted the market, and Shanghai Lead rose significantly and returned to a high level.

In terms of fundamentals, lead has not changed much, and the supply and demand remain weak. In terms of supply, both original lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, with little change in the overall operating rate. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, the battery production industry entered the seasonal slack season again, with a significant decline in the operating rate and the demand for lead ingots. The market price rose significantly this week, and traders were reluctant to sell. The discussion was relatively flat when the market was high. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal slack season. The lead market has shown weak supply and demand. The short-term trend continues to follow the fluctuation of macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

On December 25, the non-ferrous index stood at 1200, unchanged from yesterday, 21.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 97.69% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 51st week of 2022 (12.19-12.23), with nickel (3.25%), dysprosium (2.91%) and silver (2.74%) in the top three. There were five kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products with a decline were zinc (-2.65%), metal silicon (-1.48%) and electrolytic manganese (-0.57%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.7%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 15,933.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market is light, and the downstream market demand is average. The traders are more cautious in taking the goods and wait and see. Foreign export orders increased and the export market remained good. The raw material market is at a high level, and the titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. More early orders are delivered, and new orders are limited, so the market is under pressure. On the whole, the market is dominated by stability maintenance. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi is basically stable. At present, the overall market transaction is fair. The procurement of titanium dioxide in the downstream is general, and the overall market is relatively strong. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium middling ore is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is about 2080-2150 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the transaction of titanium concentrate market is fair, and the overall market operation is relatively strong, maintaining a strong trend. The actual transaction price shall be negotiated separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose this week. The price of sulfuric acid decreased from 303.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year to 313.33 yuan/ton on Thursday, with a rise of 3.3%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, with good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, the titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analysts of the Business Club, the price of sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang was consolidated at a high level. The cost of titanium dioxide is acceptable. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market demand is light, and the manufacturer’s shipping pressure remains unchanged. Traders and downstream users are mainly wait-and-see and cautious in taking goods. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, and the average market price is 174.00 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 42.38%. On December 18, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.79% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support, better downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2023.75 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2027.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.19%. A year-on-year decrease of 14.32%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1040.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1082.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 4.09%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Future market forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid rose mainly in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has risen slightly, and the purchase intention of downstream has increased. Analysts from the business community believe that hydrochloric acid has risen mainly due to slight fluctuations recently.

The domestic fluorite price rose continuously. As of the 16th day, the average domestic fluorite price was 3387.5 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3375 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: supply reduces the difficulty of spot fluorite

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the serious epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult. The supply of fluorite is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite has repeatedly hit new highs in the year.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high with the increase of inquiry

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market remained high. As of the 16th, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12757.14 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend was temporarily stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market maintained a high trend. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The high price of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

Fluorite export volume remains high

In the second half of the year, overseas mines in Canada and Mexico stopped production, overseas fluorine chemical giants were generally out of stock, and domestic acid grade fluorite received more and more inquiries from international buyers, which aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s total export of fluorite with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% is about 174500 tons, an increase of 60.12% over the same period last year; The total export volume of fluorite with calcium fluoride content>97% in China is about 172,100 tons, up 397.32% over the same period last year. The export volume of fluorite has increased significantly, supporting the higher price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: the northern fluorite enterprises have entered the production suspension period. In addition, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight in the near future, the stock keeping sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is high, and the new energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite in the long term. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 4280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 3.88% year on year.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly, in addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China is stable this week. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the delivery of goods on the site is normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid on the site is temporarily stable, the price of raw nitric acid is stable, supporting the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is stable.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose slightly this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 4890 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from 4773.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of liquid ammonia has been significantly tightened. Considering the epidemic situation, the ammonia enterprises are concentrated in production transformation and shutdown. In addition to the devices that are still in the maintenance period before, the devices such as Wanhua, Shenyuan, Yaxin and others have failed at the same time. In addition, the urea orders previously signed by some co production enterprises are still being implemented, mainly focusing on urea production, which further aggravates the shortage of liquid ammonia supply. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has risen, the price trend of nitric acid has temporarily stabilized, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week dropped sharply. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from the early week’s price of 8300 yuan/ton, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX external market has declined. As of August 8, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was 874-876 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 892-894 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has declined.

This week, the crude oil price trend declined. As of August 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 71.46 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil dropped sharply, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

The downstream PTA market price fell sharply this week, and the average PTA market price was 5100-5200 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. In terms of PTA supply, the new production capacity was put into operation later than the market expectation. At present, two sets of new units have not been put into operation substantially. However, some units were restarted, of which the 350000 ton Yizheng chemical fiber unit was overhauled on November 4 and restarted on December 7. The 700000t unit of Yadong Petrochemical was overhauled on November 27, and it is planned to restart on December 12. At present, the industry starts at around 66%. Under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery, the downstream polyester industry passively decreased and increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which has affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price still has a downward trend. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between strong supply and weak demand for PTA is prominent, and there is downward pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of paraxylene in the market will remain low in the future.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 11 was 6206.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 5.97% lower than the price of 6600.00 yuan/ton on December 5.

On December 11, the fuel oil commodity index was 125.69, unchanged from yesterday, 8.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 172.76% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of December 11, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6350 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6450 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6180 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6230 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level within the year. Because some economic data of the United States exceeded expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 7, Singapore’s fuel inventory had increased by 412000 barrels, reaching a new three week high of 20.306 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell 1.253 million barrels to a two-week low of 13.388 million barrels. Singapore’s middle distillate oil inventory fell 694000 barrels to a three week low of 7066000 barrels. (Jinshi Data APP)

Future market forecast: the international crude oil price continues to decline, which is bad for the domestic ship fuel market. The domestic ship fuel raw material price declines, and the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6100-6300 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6200-6400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will decline slightly in the near future.