Recent price trend of calcium carbide

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The year-on-year decrease was 17.72%. The carbide commodity index on March 12 was 91.27, which was the same as yesterday, down 56.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 64.48% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. This week, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1300-1400 yuan/ton, and the cost support is average. The market price of PVC fell by 0.35% from 6246.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6225.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The year-on-year decline was 30.83%. The PVC market price fell slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In the middle and late March, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the middle and late March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is stable and wait-and-see. From March 6 to 10, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China remained at 9516 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% and a year-on-year drop of 18.43%. The raw material pure benzene is relatively strong, and the cost support is good. At the same time, some cyclohexanone shipments are reduced, and the supply is good, but the terminal demand is weak. The downstream chemical fiber just needs to follow up, and the transaction is average.

In terms of cost, the domestic market price of pure benzene has risen, and Sinopec’s pure benzene has been listed twice for an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The spot transaction in East China was 7280-7320 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong Refinery was 7220-7260 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The supply side of cyclohexanone in the short term is difficult to have positive factors.

On the demand side, the price of caprolactam was basically stable, and the upstream pure benzene market maintained a rising trend. However, the overall supply of caprolactam is slightly loose, and the market atmosphere is relatively cautious. The downstream polymerization plants basically maintain the pace of on-demand procurement, and the spot transaction of caprolactam is stable. The demand for cyclohexanone has not changed significantly.

According to the future forecast, the supply of commodity volume in the market is small and the terminal demand is weak. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market was dominated by fluctuations.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8050.00 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 4.55% from February 1.

The acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in February. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene rose, the cost support increased, the industry inventory was low, and the downstream market returned, the demand gradually increased, the market inquiry was positive, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation was steadily improved. In the middle and late ten days, the raw material propylene market was shaken and sorted out, and the cost support remained. The supply side production enterprises’ device load was not high, which supported the market rise. The market transaction was just needed. After the rise, the downstream procurement mentality was cautious, the terminal demand followed up slowly, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was general, and the focus of the acrylic acid market negotiation was loose.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the reference price of propylene was 7426.60 on February 27, down 1.38% from February 1 (7530.75).

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the current price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, and the downstream demand is gradually warming up. With the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with February 27, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, or 0.38%.

In early March, the domestic butanone market continued its weak trend at the end of February. This week (2.27-3.3), the domestic butanone market continued to decline slightly. The downstream demand performance of butanone has not improved much this week, while the demand side is still weak. The trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and the attitude of the operators is general. Some butanone suppliers have lowered the delivery price of butanone, and the overall focus of the butanone market has declined slightly around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8300-8700 yuan/ton, and the price at the higher end was around 9000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, although the overall increase of new orders in the butanone market is general, the overall market has entered the downward channel for several days, and the market is expected to continue to decline significantly in the short term. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes in the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly this week. On February 27, the price of pure benzene was 7000-7470 yuan/ton (the average price was 7235 yuan/ton). On Thursday (March 2), the price of pure benzene was 7100-7420 yuan/ton (the average price was 7260 yuan/ton), up 0.69% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

The price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7100 yuan/ton this week (the price in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and the weakening of energy demand, and the short-term market will remain volatile. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of OPEC+’s latest production policy, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Although worried about the possible impact of interest rate hikes in Europe on economic growth, the demand for Indian refineries has reached a record high, and China’s economic data is improving, and international oil prices continue to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 0.47 USD/barrel or 0.60%; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract was 84.75 USD/barrel, up 0.44 USD/barrel or 0.52%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures 2304 fell 1.4 yuan to 554.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.1 yuan to 566.5 yuan/barrel in the evening.

The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue to operate in a weak way in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of steam coal fell first and then rose this month. The energy index stood at 1107 points on February 27, up 9 points from yesterday, down 29.08% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 116.63% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production at the beginning of the month, and the market supply increased, but the market trading atmosphere was general. The price of coal in main producing areas has declined, with the price reduction range ranging from 30-50 yuan/ton. Downstream production resumed, but steam coal was still mainly purchased on demand. The coal mine resumed production at the end of the month, and the market trading atmosphere was high. The number of coal hauling vehicles in the mine increased, and the transaction in the mine was good. In addition, an open-pit coal mine in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region collapsed in a large area, and the coal mine production in the later stage may become more strict, and the coal mine output may be affected.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales at the beginning of the month were average, the market quotation declined, and the enthusiasm for taking goods at the downstream was average, and the transaction was relatively weak. The port price rose in the last ten days, and the market activity increased. The trading and investment atmosphere in the market is fair, and the demand in the downstream increases. In addition, due to the commencement of construction after the year, the demand for steam coal has also increased compared with that before, and the price of steam coal in the port has risen. However, the downstream acceptance is low, and the deviation between the actual transaction and the quotation is large.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the industries above designated size in the whole year, the output of raw coal in 2022 will reach 4.56 billion tons, an increase of 10.5% over the previous year. The annual profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 8403.9 billion yuan, down 4.0% from the previous year. The profit of the mining industry was 1557.4 billion yuan, an increase of 48.6% over the previous year..

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the trading atmosphere in the production area is better than before, and the demand for coal has increased after the commencement of non-electricity demand. In terms of downstream ports, the daily consumption of power plants has also increased, and the shipment of traders is fair. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of steam coal will be stronger in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8447 yuan/ton on February 1, and the average price on February 28 was 8332 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.35% during the period, down 0.71% from January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9216 yuan/ton on February 1 and 9070 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 1.59% during the period, 0.33% lower than the price quoted on January 1.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8566 yuan/ton on February 1 and 8500 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 0.78% during the period, up 0.39% from January 1.

In February, the domestic polyethylene price was dominated by weak operation. LLDPE continued to decline in the first half of the month, and rose and fell in the second half of the month; LDPE’s quotation in the first half of the month was mainly stable, while it rose and fell in the second half of the month; HDPE declined significantly in the first half of the month, and the quotation in the second half was mainly stable. Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have been put into operation successively, and the overall market supply is still loose. Starting from the beginning of February c, the operating rate of downstream enterprises increased, but mainly digested inventory. The market purchasing sentiment was not high, and orders were limited. Traders’ inventory pressure was high, and their prices fell. March is the traditional peak season. The operating rate of agricultural film, packaging film and other plastic downstream products increased, and orders increased.

The domestic polyethylene market has sufficient supply, and the demand for polyethylene market has recovered less than expected after the holiday. March is the traditional peak season, and the market demand is expected to be optimistic. It is expected that polyethylene will increase, but its rising space is limited.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 27, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, down 6.62% from the price of aluminum fluoride of 11325 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Spring Festival, the construction of aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from 3156.25 yuan/ton on February 1; As of February 27, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the price of 10000 yuan/ton on February 1. The price of raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride dropped sharply, and the downward pressure on the price of aluminum fluoride increased.

Electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and fell in February

It can be seen from the price trend chart of electrolytic aluminum of the Business Club that the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18386.67 yuan/ton as of February 27, down 3.13% from the price of 18980 yuan/ton on February 1. After the holiday, the market of electrolytic aluminum recovered somewhat, but the overall market of aluminum was less than expected. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell under great pressure.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of the Business Society, the aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed their operations in February, and the supply of aluminum fluoride increased. The price trend of aluminum fluoride depends on the cost of raw materials and the demand for aluminum fluoride; In terms of raw materials, the price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell in February. In terms of demand, the market of electrolytic aluminum was lower than expected, the market of industrial chain was still weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor. In the future, the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak due to the decline in the cost of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

The price of DOP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of DOP was 9960 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the price of 9920 yuan/ton on February 17. Cost pressure remains, and the DOP market rose slightly this week.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on February 17. Downstream demand is still weak. Downstream customers mostly replenish stocks on Monday and Tuesday. With the increase of replenishing stocks, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted this week. The cost support of DOP raw materials still exists, and the power of DOP price rise still exists.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 24, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.50 yuan/ton on February 17. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, while the upward momentum of DOP remained.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, rose slightly this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride remained high, and the cost of DOP rose; The demand side support is limited, and the downstream is more likely to follow the fall to cover the stock. The DOP is mixed, and there is still a downside risk in the short term. In the future, DOP cost shock and consolidation demand support is limited, and DOP price shock and consolidation are expected.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 22, 2023, the market price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 8966 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, or 11.16%. On February 22, the domestic market price of propylene glycol was around 8800-9300 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that from February to now (2.1-2.22), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a steady upward trend. The main driving force supporting the continuous rise of the propylene glycol market is mainly from the joint support of raw material cost, on-site supply side inventory and demand. Let’s look at the supply, cost and demand of propylene glycol from February to now.

In terms of cost: the market of propylene oxide as raw material keeps rising, the support given by the cost of propylene glycol keeps increasing, and the focus of the propylene glycol market keeps getting closer.

In terms of supply: At present, domestic propylene glycol pre-holiday maintenance devices have been started in succession, and some factories mainly deliver export orders in the early stage, so the overall inventory of propylene glycol in the field is relatively controllable.

Demand: In February, the downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was gradually released. After the digestion of some downstream raw materials, the demand for propylene glycol market performed well at the stage, and the overall demand for propylene glycol was given some support.

Future trend analysis

At present, with the gradual warming of the weather, the downstream demand of the terminal will gradually recover. The propylene glycol field operators have expectations. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly continue to run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.